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TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Tropics: Does June Matter?
THE WEATHER CHANNEL
Broiling heat likely to continue through weekend in Houston
HOUSTON CHRONICLE
2011: The Year of the Urban Tornado, Meteorologist Says
FOX NEWS
Severe Drought Settled Over Cuba
ACCUWEATHER.COM
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan
Aboyne tops 79 degrees today making Aberdeenshire the UK warm spot for a 2nd day. Back to normality across Scotland tomorrow!
THE NEXT FULL WEEK AHEAD LOOKS COOL AND UNSETTLED ACROSS UK!
With the trough set to bring in a much cooler, cloudier and more unsettled pattern once again to the UK, current models suggest a strenghening of the trough over the next 2-3 which may cover the majority of western Europe by early next week, this will usher in below normal temperatures from Scotland to Spain. Unfortunately, current models suggest this more unsettled pattern to hold through the next full week with little recovery for the UK even by NEXT WEEKEND.
I PREDICT WARM, SETTLED WEATHER TO RETURN SOMETIME AFTER JUNE 15TH
I said in my official forecast that was released back on March 31st that Spain and southwest Europe would see warmer, drier than normal conditions and Scandinavia would see colder than normal conditions when tallying up the 3 months of summer (June through August). Great Britain I believed and still believe will see a fight and series of warm, settled spells in between unsettled spells. This appears to be materialising, however it's barely the beginning of the warm season but there is signs of truth showing up here. The only spanner in the works is extreme southeast England which will likely remain dry and warmer than normal thanks to the core of drought nearby over France. The rest of Britain however will see that swing between settled and unsettled, cool and warm...
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan
Scorching Heat to Continue across South, Houston records earliest 100 in over hundred years yesterday!
The graphic below illustrates well the current weather pattern now locked in over the Southern US.
Texas heat origin over the coming weeks with a back and forth eastward advancement into the Southeast and Florida where a drought lingers on. The heat will bounce north and northeast ahead of and behind passing systems and float by to the north. Eventually, the heat core shiofts west to the Desert Southwest but thanks to severe drought conditions, a secondary heat core could well linger into midsummer, that is unless tropical activity comes calling and we see troughiness lock in over the Plains.
Early summer tends to see the core of heat over the Southern Plains as troughs often continue swinging into the West. The troughs to the east of the Rockies are often more progressive. Where the trough lingers, heat can't build as much as it does where troughs often can't reach. The heat also builds powerfully over Mexico to the south and this often gets pumped into Texas and Oklahoma, keeping the trough away and moving along as it can't dig in as pressures are simply too high.
Thunderstorms run around upper ridge, impacting Dakotas, Minnesota and through the Great Lakes region!
With the powerful upper level high centered over the Southern Plains and South, we see the energy progress over top and this means the train tracks of Pacific systems run across southern Canada with a front pushing out ahead of it across the Northern Plains and Lakes. The season change has been kicked well into gear after an extremely turbulent spring further south. From Bismark, Minot, Fargo, Minneapolis, Madison, Chicago, Detroit to Pittsburgh, your all likely entering an active time for thunderstorms rolling through your areas from the west as the heat continues to blowtorch the South.
WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan
Today's 77 degree high surpasses peak reading from summer 2010 at my house
Last summer here at my house in Lennoxtown and throughout Scotland was one divided with May and June dominated for the most part by warm, settled conditions thanks to the dominance of the Azores High.
However, once that broke down and moved south and gave way to a trough, it never returned. In fact we saw seemily days which turned into weeks of persistent cloudcover and rain. Some days saw torrential rains and we did see record rainfall in areas.
The maximum temperature during last summer reached 76 degrees with the warmest lows dipping to 60 degrees. Neither was particularly high.
Today's 77 degree high beats last summer's by 1-degree and it will be interesting to see whether today's high becomes the seasons overall warmest when all is said or done or whether warmer is yet to come. I believe there is warmer days ahead given the type of pattern unfolding and despite the fact we may see 7-15 days of cool, unsettled weather...
VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA
@Vishal, Ron, svt, nt:
The pre monsoon showers in Mumbai were convective, and due to off shore trough. I mentioned , Nothing to do with AS-1.
As far as the system AS-1 goes, many models show it deepening, and moving west or NW or even North. Some models show otherwise.
I maintain my thinking that AS-1 will now move NW, from present location, and weaken off BEFORE hitting any landmass. In short, no major effect on land.
SWM will move up, due to the off shore trough prevailing, which will stretch from Konkan to Kerala.
Mumbai will continue to get "moderate" rains till Sun/Mon.
Vagaries shall advance SWM into Goa by Sat/Sun, (will wait for perfect OLR), and then into Mumbai.
SWM would move upto 20N, and then stagger for a few days due to the "mess" created by M4.
Pressure in the North today is 1004 ! Where is the gradient ??
These are my views, and things could happen either way..as many international models voice different opinions.
I encourage you to click here and check out our partner blog for great India and Sub-Continental weather....
WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?
Twisted
PhillyWeather.net
Highlights of the Week Ahead
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
Western PA Storm Chaser Talk and Movie
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 77 degrees
LOW: 44 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Tropics: Does June Matter?
THE WEATHER CHANNEL
Broiling heat likely to continue through weekend in Houston
HOUSTON CHRONICLE
2011: The Year of the Urban Tornado, Meteorologist Says
FOX NEWS
Severe Drought Settled Over Cuba
ACCUWEATHER.COM
Aboyne tops 79 degrees today making Aberdeenshire the UK warm spot for a 2nd day. Back to normality across Scotland tomorrow!
THE NEXT FULL WEEK AHEAD LOOKS COOL AND UNSETTLED ACROSS UK!
With the trough set to bring in a much cooler, cloudier and more unsettled pattern once again to the UK, current models suggest a strenghening of the trough over the next 2-3 which may cover the majority of western Europe by early next week, this will usher in below normal temperatures from Scotland to Spain. Unfortunately, current models suggest this more unsettled pattern to hold through the next full week with little recovery for the UK even by NEXT WEEKEND.
I PREDICT WARM, SETTLED WEATHER TO RETURN SOMETIME AFTER JUNE 15TH
I said in my official forecast that was released back on March 31st that Spain and southwest Europe would see warmer, drier than normal conditions and Scandinavia would see colder than normal conditions when tallying up the 3 months of summer (June through August). Great Britain I believed and still believe will see a fight and series of warm, settled spells in between unsettled spells. This appears to be materialising, however it's barely the beginning of the warm season but there is signs of truth showing up here. The only spanner in the works is extreme southeast England which will likely remain dry and warmer than normal thanks to the core of drought nearby over France. The rest of Britain however will see that swing between settled and unsettled, cool and warm...
Mark Vogan discusses today's heat over Scotland return to cooler, unsettled weather!
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan
Scorching Heat to Continue across South, Houston records earliest 100 in over hundred years yesterday!
The graphic below illustrates well the current weather pattern now locked in over the Southern US.
Texas heat origin over the coming weeks with a back and forth eastward advancement into the Southeast and Florida where a drought lingers on. The heat will bounce north and northeast ahead of and behind passing systems and float by to the north. Eventually, the heat core shiofts west to the Desert Southwest but thanks to severe drought conditions, a secondary heat core could well linger into midsummer, that is unless tropical activity comes calling and we see troughiness lock in over the Plains.
Early summer tends to see the core of heat over the Southern Plains as troughs often continue swinging into the West. The troughs to the east of the Rockies are often more progressive. Where the trough lingers, heat can't build as much as it does where troughs often can't reach. The heat also builds powerfully over Mexico to the south and this often gets pumped into Texas and Oklahoma, keeping the trough away and moving along as it can't dig in as pressures are simply too high.
Thunderstorms run around upper ridge, impacting Dakotas, Minnesota and through the Great Lakes region!
With the powerful upper level high centered over the Southern Plains and South, we see the energy progress over top and this means the train tracks of Pacific systems run across southern Canada with a front pushing out ahead of it across the Northern Plains and Lakes. The season change has been kicked well into gear after an extremely turbulent spring further south. From Bismark, Minot, Fargo, Minneapolis, Madison, Chicago, Detroit to Pittsburgh, your all likely entering an active time for thunderstorms rolling through your areas from the west as the heat continues to blowtorch the South.
WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan
Today's 77 degree high surpasses peak reading from summer 2010 at my house
Looking out across the Campsie Fells this morning at 7.30am from my office!
Last summer here at my house in Lennoxtown and throughout Scotland was one divided with May and June dominated for the most part by warm, settled conditions thanks to the dominance of the Azores High.
However, once that broke down and moved south and gave way to a trough, it never returned. In fact we saw seemily days which turned into weeks of persistent cloudcover and rain. Some days saw torrential rains and we did see record rainfall in areas.
The maximum temperature during last summer reached 76 degrees with the warmest lows dipping to 60 degrees. Neither was particularly high.
Today's 77 degree high beats last summer's by 1-degree and it will be interesting to see whether today's high becomes the seasons overall warmest when all is said or done or whether warmer is yet to come. I believe there is warmer days ahead given the type of pattern unfolding and despite the fact we may see 7-15 days of cool, unsettled weather...
Looking at the brilliantly clear blue skies from my back garden this morning!
VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA
@Vishal, Ron, svt, nt:
The pre monsoon showers in Mumbai were convective, and due to off shore trough. I mentioned , Nothing to do with AS-1.
As far as the system AS-1 goes, many models show it deepening, and moving west or NW or even North. Some models show otherwise.
I maintain my thinking that AS-1 will now move NW, from present location, and weaken off BEFORE hitting any landmass. In short, no major effect on land.
SWM will move up, due to the off shore trough prevailing, which will stretch from Konkan to Kerala.
Mumbai will continue to get "moderate" rains till Sun/Mon.
Vagaries shall advance SWM into Goa by Sat/Sun, (will wait for perfect OLR), and then into Mumbai.
SWM would move upto 20N, and then stagger for a few days due to the "mess" created by M4.
Pressure in the North today is 1004 ! Where is the gradient ??
These are my views, and things could happen either way..as many international models voice different opinions.
I encourage you to click here and check out our partner blog for great India and Sub-Continental weather....
WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?
Twisted
PhillyWeather.net
Highlights of the Week Ahead
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
Western PA Storm Chaser Talk and Movie
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 77 degrees
LOW: 44 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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