Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Likely Monday

Not to take anything away from the severe thunderstorm activity yet to occur later this afternoon & evening (some of which could be significant in its own right), however the weather situation coming up for tomorrow is starting to look more and more serious and merits as much advance notice as possible.

Below is the latest severe weather outlook for Monday from the SPC in Norman, OK.  Severe thunderstorms are possible anywhere within the yellow shaded areas, with an enhanced risk of severe weather (including one or more strong tornadoes) within the red shaded area:

Strong thunderstorm activity may develop as early as the morning hours on Monday across Northern portions of the red shaded area on the above image, with hail being the primary threat at that time.

A more significant threat of severe weather is then forecast to develop by late afternoon & evening, along and ahead of a cold front and beneath a strong jet stream disturbance.  The most likely area for initiation of this activity will be in southeastern South Dakota, southward into eastern Nebraska.  This activity will then move and/or develop Eastward across adjacent portions of Iowa and southern Minnesota during the late afternoon & evening hours.

Very large hail, damaging winds and one or more strong, potentially long track tornadoes will be possible in this region.  This enhanced risk of severe weather includes the cities of Omaha, Lincoln, Sioux Falls and Des Moines.

Other severe thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon or early evening southward along the dryline from extreme southcentral or southeast Nebraska into central & eastern Kansas.  Very large hail, damaging winds and isolated (but potentially strong) tornadoes will also be possible in these areas.  The main tornado risk in this region is expected to take place prior to sunset, with an evolution to a line of storms with damaging winds likely thereafter.

Further South, a more isolated threat of severe storms will exist along the dryline from western & central Oklahoma into extreme northwest Texas.  Very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible with any activity that is able to form in this region.

If you live anywhere within or near the above mentioned areas, and particularly within the area outlined in red on the above image, please pay very close attention to the weather on Monday afternoon & evening.  Develop a plan now and know what you would do in the event that threatening weather were to approach your area.