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An Atlantic low trys to push into the UK but the high over the continent keeps it off shore, for now! Most of Europe remains warm with showers. Increasing heat for Iberia
A large chunk of the UK finally enjoys some warmer weather once again after the 'washout weekend' that impacted most areas with heavy, persistent rains across the drought stricken South of England.
Now that this system has pushed northwards and impacted the North of Scotland today and tonight with very heavy rains and coastal and Northern Isles gales, the South of the UK enjoys sunshine and much warmer conditions. This looks set to hold from Brighton to Carlisle over the next 48 hours but some models portray a return to more unsettled weather by Wednesday after highs Tuesday reach the low to perhaps mid-20s C across London and the Urban Southeast, perhaps 21 or 22C as far north as Yorkshire and even Cumbria, cooler and less sunny further north into Scotland where highs perhaps reach 17 or 18C at best.
Another low appears to try and work it's way in from the southwest but at the moment, the ridge dominating the majority of Europe will hold this low off the UK and the fight begins. Who wins, the low or the ridge? Stay tuned.
As for the mainland of Europe. It's the same old story.. Sunshine, showers and heat for all with the warmest air settled over the favoured areas of Spain where high pressure is building and will push highs in southern Spain towards 38C or 100F, Central Spain towards 33 to 35C Tuesday through Thursday. Pressures as you would expect is high enough nearest the Med over southern, central Italy, Greece, southwest Turkey the Med Islands to push temps to between 29-34C but because there is little impulses continuing to float at the 30,000 to 40,000ft level above the surface and mid-level high pressure system, showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Cool Pool Grows Across Northern Tier but forces intensification of Heat in South, Fight continues in between
As you can see from the graphics supplied by The Weather Channel below, the pattern has changed after what was a huge, sprawlling upper ridge that covered ALL of the Eastern Third last week from the Front Range to Atlantic Ocean and from Mexico all the way into southern Canada.
That ridge has since retreated thanks to troughiness over the North and the passing of storm systems. This has pushed the tremendous heat south, replacing the Northern States with refreshing 60s and 70s. However, this cooler, Pacific and Canadian origin air comes at high price. Not only does the ridge squeeze and strengthen over the South but the thermal contrast between these two air masses intensifies and so raises atmospheric instability. For now and over the next few days we see continued risk of strong to severe thunderstorms develop from the Northern Rockies, through the Central Plains and into the Ohio Valley.
Because the area of high pressure that once covered all the East has now shrunk now and compressed the high's coverage, it becomes squeezed across the South by the cool pool to the North. I have a theory that the high grows stronger because of the fact it's squashed and thus heights in a smaller area build upwards, forcing stronger surface heating! These are The Weather Channel's forecast highs across the South, note the 99 for Orlando.
The well marked low, AS-1, has moved further NW, and remains inland, just on the Saurastra coast, but weakened. Rainfall belt has shifted to west Gujarat (Jamnagar) and adjoining Kutch
Clouding however has spread over a greater radius.
As the system weakens, in the next 12 hrs, the clouding (not heavy rain but high clouds) will "swell" into a wider region for a day.
I feel BB1 will come to sea level off the Orissa coast by Wednesday, straught away as a 998 mb low.or maybe a well marked low. SWM progress into newer regions will depend on the track of BB1.Most likely track west.Meanwhile, it may take 2 days for the off shore trough to re-organise itself. Details later tonite
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TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 110° at Pecos, TX
LOW: 28° at Angel Fire, NM
TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE
HIGH: 73° (23°C) at Norwich Airport (Norfolk)
LOW: 43° (6.1°C) at Baltasound (Shetland)
TODAY'S GLOBAL EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE
HIGHEST
47°C (117°F) at Kiffa, Mauritinia (Africa)
46°C (115°F) SW Algeria (Africa)
45°C (115°F) at Bilma, Niger (Africa)
LOWEST
-74°C (-101°F) at Vostok Station, Antarctica
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