Monday, October 11, 2010

11 October, 2010

COMING THIS HALLOWEEN: MARK VOGAN'S 2010-2011 UK AND EUROPE WINTER FORECAST....

Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan


BREAKING NEWS: Tropical Storm Paula Forms in Caribbean
AccuWeather News

flooding
BBC Weather

noreaster
AccuWeather News

heat
Despite October 11, much of US experiences heat!


Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather



Powerhouse Nor'easter Coming to New York City, Philadelphia, Boston
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Big Thunderstorms Busting Out in Texas, Louisiana, Kansas
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

I-80 Pennsylvania Targeted by Severe Thunderstorms Monday
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

Within 2-4 minutes, 4-6 miles and little elevation change the temperature plummets from 50 to 30 degrees (10C to -1C) in the Heart of the Scottish Highlands


Yesterday morning brought an occurance that took me by surprise. I was driving my truck as usual through the night between Bathgate, West Lothian and Inverness in the north of Scotland (known as the Capital of the Highlands) with a stop and load collection at the vast Tesco Depot in Livingston.


In a night that appeared relatively benign with clear, stary skies and a strong easterly breeze which over the past few nights was strong enough to make it feel darn cold and also lean my cab over to the left as I drove northbound (wind blowing from the east of course would tilt the cab to the left), it was pretty strong as I crossed the north-south facing Forth Road Bridge, but having left the at times "wind swept M90 and onto the dark and lonely A9 for the 111 miles to Inverness, winds lightened up as gradually climbed in elevation on appraoch to the Highlands and the Cairngorm National Park. It really is a beautiful drive by day, passing such places as Dunkeld, Pitlochry, Blair Atholl and once passing Killiecrankie, Bruar and Pitagowan you enter the steep climbing Glen Garry which the A9 climbs till you reach Drumnochter Pass, here is the southern entry point to the Cairngorm National Park and the Highland region. Even here my truck temperature was hovering between 10 and 12C, therefore I wasn't expecting much in the way of cold as I headed through the dark and lonely Caingorm National Park. Even at the known cold spot of Dalwhinnie, it was a balmy 10C. However despite the stretch through remote and empty Glen Truim between Dalwhinnie and the Newtonmore and Kingussie remaining mild and under very clear skies, it wasn't until I past the Newtonmore turnoff and I headed the final stretch between there and Aviemore where a sudden drop in temperature occured in which I went from 10 down to 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and stopped at 1C before rising almost as fast as it had dropped. The strange thing was this was a fairly flat stretch, little in the way of difference in topography on either side of the road and even wind was literally no different, yet in between a roughly 10C air mass, there was a pocket of literally freezing air.... What made me think this wasn't a faulty reading from the truck thermometer was the fact that as I drove south, once at Aviemore and was reading 10C, as soon as I went south of there and hit a patch of mist, all of a sudden the temperature once again dropped and went to 0C within minutes of reading 10C, therefore the sudden drop in the exact same area wasn't a fluke or incorrect. In fact with a few hours on in the night, the progresson of cooling was apparent when the temperature bottomed out at -1C or 30 degrees F near Kincraig, just south of Aviemore. This in fact being colder than the "official" lowest reading in the UK which was 2.4C at Aviemore, above all places!

Just at the point where the temperature dropped to 0C I was due a break and stopped for my 45 minutes and there I got out and touched a "frosted grass", which clarrified the reading the truck was suggesting.

Funnily enough, once beyond this area the temperature quickly rose to 5, 6 and 7 and once at down by Dalwhinnie and Drumnochter Pass again it was around 9C. Indeed once agin far soiuth as Perth and beyond winds where blowing again.


Note that 11 minutes after reading a chilly -1C the reading was back up at 7C.

This type of experience told me two things, that not only are there areas of the country that despite perhaps mild temperatures, there are pockets of air within certain locales that are perhaps several degrees colder than surrounding areas but (2) there are also areas which experience COLDER temperatures than what's official or non officially recorded. Therefore meaning that the -22C recorded in Altnaharra on January 8, 2010, though officially was the coldest reading of last winter in thr UK was not by any stretch the actual coldest air of the winter in the UK. I know through at least one person, that the Carrbridge area, about 8 miles north of Aviemore recieves colder temperatures than Aviemore and indeed lows of -22C was recorded by garden thermometers in Carrbridge, the coldest readings experienced in Aviemore was -19C though the "offcial low there was -18C. A gentleman I known and talk with stated that at his work near his home in Carrbridge recorded a temperatures as low as -24C, which indeed is actually colder than the lowest actual reading recorded in the UK.

There is somewhere ALWAYS that records colder lows than the official lowest reading in Britain every night and it's simply we can't put thermometers everywhere!!

Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia

Is it July or October ?? That's the question rightly put up our readers.



Mumbai is getting drizzle to medium rains since Sunday night, increasing to steady rain on Monday morning. Unexpected ? To an extent ,Yes ! As per the forecast put up on the Mumbai page yesterday, "Vagaries" estimated the rains after Monday evening. And, to the extent of around 5 mms was estimated for Monday. Subsequently, an increase in rains on Wednesday is put up.
 
The reason. Due to excessive and sudden heat, that we have been regularly mentioning in "Vagaries", an upper air circulation was anticipitated over South Gujarat from Monday. Today, we see the UAC over Gujarat at 850 hpa. But, in spite of the dry winds from the NW at lower levels, the cloud formation around this system is grossly enlarged. And today, we see the low level wind abruptly changing direction and becoming Westerlies, to almost "monsoon type".



Now, the question is, had the SWM retreated from Mumbai on 6th. Oct ? The answer is Yes ! The establishment of an anticyclone, anchored over the region North of Mah. has been time and again shown on the Vagaries blog, and the low level winds from the NW right into the peninsula region, including the whole of Mah. has been stressed upon in almost every write up. (Both signs of retreated Monsoon).

nt, in yesterday,s blog, I have mentioned the "MONSOON AXIS" shifting to the 20N level. The SWM remains withdrawn from Mah. and above. The axis generally shifts down to around between 15N and 17N during the commencement of the NEM.


That's why I have mentioned yesterday, that total removing of SWM and start of NEM could be possible soon.
 
See our Partner's Blog HERE!
 
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?

Yes (West) Virginia, It May Snow Friday
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

Shades of the Winter Season Approaching
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather

The Extremes of the Day

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 103 degrees at Indio, CA
Low: 21 degrees at Alamosa, CO

Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

High: 68 degrees at Plymouth (Devon)
Low: 29 degrees at Aviemore (Highland)

Today's Extremes here at my house


High: 54 degrees
Low: 48 degrees

TODAY'S COND
A chilly start which gave way to a pleasantly mild day with almost compltely clear skies much of the day, feeling mild when in the sunshine but in the shade and with the slightest breeze, it felt fairly chilly, this reflective of the actual high for today being only 54 degrees.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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