31 March, 2011

FOLLOW THE BLOG ON FACEBOOK & TWITTER

TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Mark Vogan's Preliminary Summer 2011 Forecast
United Kingdom will be inside the boundary between chilly air over Scandinavia and blistering heat over Spain 

*Scandinavia across to western Russia will be cooler-wetter than normal
*Southern Europe and Mediterrannean to see above normal temps

I have come up with the above highlights given the overall pattern we currently have at play and the type of winter we've seen.

The recent La Nina which shadowed the pattern more so during the second half of winter is quickly weakening and will likely have faded considerably from about the start of August, not before and thus the La Nina and it's domino effects should reflect the majority of the large-scale hemispheric pattern this summer.

I believe the overall pattern should be as follows when we look at the grand June through August pattern.

A dissapointing Cool/Wet Summer ahead for same areas that shivered in winter 2010-11

Cooler air will linger from coastal Norway across Sweden, Finland, through the Baltics and into western Russia. Here there may be a series of fairly strong Atlantic cyclones moving through of which may shield Great Britain from warm sunshine for days on end. We may also see mist and low cloud as well as drizzle, particularly over the northern half of Britain.

Endless sunshine and heat for a banana-shaped rim around the northern Med

The core of this summer's heat will be drapped in a banana-shaped rim, spanning all the European Med coast and points inland. Stretching from Gibraltar to Monaco to Milan and across to Istanbul. Here, sunshine should be relentless, providing 28-38C heat day after day with interior areas away from the cooling sea breeze soaring beyond 38C (100 degrees F) 40C.

As always, the core or origin of the heat is centered beneath the sub-tropical high pressure core parked over the Sahara Desert in north Africa, the air flowing around this wheel of heat, drives hot air up across the sunbaked countries of southern Europe.

As for the UK, though I see an unsettled summer overall, we may have a better summer than last year which was nice and settled from May through late June and then turned on it's head come July 1 with the rest being for the most part, a wash out. This year, unsettled and settled spells may be more evenly distributed throughout the summer months. The problem is, we live on a small island, surrounded by cold waters (even in summer) and located at a relatively far north latitude with a large ocean to our west, we aren't going to see the same type of persistent sunshine that areas either further south or far from a large body of water will see. We also won't see truely hot conditions either thanks to the nearby surrounding waters.

However, I do see 'many' warm,/sunny spells of anywhere from 3-5 or longer days in a row for the central and southern portion of England and Wales as well as Ireland. As for the northern areas, we may see 2-3 spells of 3-5 days which may extend upwards of 10 days once or twice  across northern England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland where we see sunny, warm days and pleasantly mild evenings. The areas of southern, interior England and Greater London may see upwards of 5 to even 10 nights in which lows only fall to around 18C or warmer.

Conclusion:

Here in the UK, will shall be within that boundary between the heat and sun to the south and the chilly, damp and at times, stormy north over Scandinavia. Both air masses will bounce north and south, providing us with a taste of both.

NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC ON WINTER STORM ALERT TONIGHT...
Are you ready for tonight's Nor'Easter?
Discussion by Mark Vogan

I-95 could be close to division between rain and snow

It would appear that it looks like I-95 itself may be close to the rain-snow line with a uniform 2-4 inches of snow to fall from within 5-15 miles west of Philadelphia, New York and Boston. However, the slightly slift in track changes that in a big way and that 2-4 may end up OVER those cities if the deepening storm off Virginia's Capes tracks northeastwards slightly further off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast.

Another factor may be in the actual deepening phase of the storm. If the system deepens more so than expected, it may also force the snow line closer to the coast and therefore making it snow more than rain within the population centers.

As of this time anyway, I expect mostly rain, perhaps even an all rain event with gusty winds for Philly, New York and up to the Cape and downtown Boston. Boston is a slightly tougher call, cause, it's often easier to get the cold air closer to the coast around Boston on northwards up along the Maine coast. In saying that warm air has many a time remained along the coast all the way up into the Canadian maritimes.

Mountainous areas of NW Jersey, NE Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley of New York and the mountains of central and northern New York, southern & central Vermont and New Hampshire and Maine may see 8-14 inches with locally 16 to 24 inch amounts of snow.

70 reportedly trapped after storm hits Florida
CNN

Heat wave intensifies in L.A. area; near-record temperatures expected
LA TIMES

Floods deluge kills at least 15 in Thailand

BBC


TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA
From AccuWeather

Another Big Snowstorm Next Week... Seriously?
By Heather Buchman, Meteorologist

Violent Thunderstorms Tear through Florida
By Eric Reese, Meteorologist

April Fools Snowstorm Is No Joke
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan

California Weather Extremes at their best!
Record 200-350 inch snow base in Sierra whilst record heat is expected within LA Basin and S. Calif today

High Pressure building over the Deserts of the Southwest has shifted the extremely active Pacific storm train way north, but in it's wake has left the High Sierra buried beneath many 'feet' of snow. Throughout the Deserts of the Southwest and under high pressure, temps will get into the 90s, even low 100s today with even 80s and 90s spreading westwards into the coastal valleys of Southern California and the LA Basin thanks to an easterly flow blowing from the interior deserts.

This is in stark contrast to the hundreds of inches of snow which lie in the high, tree-lined valleys of the Sierra from Tahoe in the north to Mammoth Basin in the south, not too terribly far from the same areas which may see low 100s today. Remember, Death Valley isn't too far south of the southern flank of the Sierra Nevada. Today may see a contrast of 100 degree heat in low-elevation desert valley floors whilst surrounding peaks, penetrating 10,000 feet or more into the blue sky that is buried under 50 or more inches of snow and temps only in the 20s and 30s! That's California for ya!

WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?

Rainfall Tops 50 Inches in Southern Thailand
Jim Andrews, International Expert, AccuWeather

Snow and Severe Weather Maps for the April Fools' Storm
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 103 degrees at Death Valley, CA
LOW: 4 degrees at Kabetgama, MN

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 66 degrees (18.8C) at Santon Downham (Suffolk)
LOW: 30 degrees (-1.3C) at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 49 degrees
LOW: 42 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

31 March, 2011

FOLLOW THE BLOG ON FACEBOOK & TWITTER

TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Mark Vogan's Preliminary Summer 2011 Forecast
United Kingdom will be inside the boundary between chilly air over Scandinavia and blistering heat over Spain 

*Scandinavia across to western Russia will be cooler-wetter than normal
*Southern Europe and Mediterrannean to see above normal temps

I have come up with the above highlights given the overall pattern we currently have at play and the type of winter we've seen.

The recent La Nina which shadowed the pattern more so during the second half of winter is quickly weakening and will likely have faded considerably from about the start of August, not before and thus the La Nina and it's domino effects should reflect the majority of the large-scale hemispheric pattern this summer.

I believe the overall pattern should be as follows when we look at the grand June through August pattern.

A dissapointing Cool/Wet Summer ahead for same areas that shivered in winter 2010-11

Cooler air will linger from coastal Norway across Sweden, Finland, through the Baltics and into western Russia. Here there may be a series of fairly strong Atlantic cyclones moving through of which may shield Great Britain from warm sunshine for days on end. We may also see mist and low cloud as well as drizzle, particularly over the northern half of Britain.

Endless sunshine and heat for a banana-shaped rim around the northern Med

The core of this summer's heat will be drapped in a banana-shaped rim, spanning all the European Med coast and points inland. Stretching from Gibraltar to Monaco to Milan and across to Istanbul. Here, sunshine should be relentless, providing 28-38C heat day after day with interior areas away from the cooling sea breeze soaring beyond 38C (100 degrees F) 40C.

As always, the core or origin of the heat is centered beneath the sub-tropical high pressure core parked over the Sahara Desert in north Africa, the air flowing around this wheel of heat, drives hot air up across the sunbaked countries of southern Europe.

As for the UK, though I see an unsettled summer overall, we may have a better summer than last year which was nice and settled from May through late June and then turned on it's head come July 1 with the rest being for the most part, a wash out. This year, unsettled and settled spells may be more evenly distributed throughout the summer months. The problem is, we live on a small island, surrounded by cold waters (even in summer) and located at a relatively far north latitude with a large ocean to our west, we aren't going to see the same type of persistent sunshine that areas either further south or far from a large body of water will see. We also won't see truely hot conditions either thanks to the nearby surrounding waters.

However, I do see 'many' warm,/sunny spells of anywhere from 3-5 or longer days in a row for the central and southern portion of England and Wales as well as Ireland. As for the northern areas, we may see 2-3 spells of 3-5 days which may extend upwards of 10 days once or twice  across northern England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland where we see sunny, warm days and pleasantly mild evenings. The areas of southern, interior England and Greater London may see upwards of 5 to even 10 nights in which lows only fall to around 18C or warmer.

Conclusion:

Here in the UK, will shall be within that boundary between the heat and sun to the south and the chilly, damp and at times, stormy north over Scandinavia. Both air masses will bounce north and south, providing us with a taste of both.

NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC ON WINTER STORM ALERT TONIGHT...
Are you ready for tonight's Nor'Easter?
Discussion by Mark Vogan

I-95 could be close to division between rain and snow

It would appear that it looks like I-95 itself may be close to the rain-snow line with a uniform 2-4 inches of snow to fall from within 5-15 miles west of Philadelphia, New York and Boston. However, the slightly slift in track changes that in a big way and that 2-4 may end up OVER those cities if the deepening storm off Virginia's Capes tracks northeastwards slightly further off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast.

Another factor may be in the actual deepening phase of the storm. If the system deepens more so than expected, it may also force the snow line closer to the coast and therefore making it snow more than rain within the population centers.

As of this time anyway, I expect mostly rain, perhaps even an all rain event with gusty winds for Philly, New York and up to the Cape and downtown Boston. Boston is a slightly tougher call, cause, it's often easier to get the cold air closer to the coast around Boston on northwards up along the Maine coast. In saying that warm air has many a time remained along the coast all the way up into the Canadian maritimes.

Mountainous areas of NW Jersey, NE Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley of New York and the mountains of central and northern New York, southern & central Vermont and New Hampshire and Maine may see 8-14 inches with locally 16 to 24 inch amounts of snow.

70 reportedly trapped after storm hits Florida
CNN

Heat wave intensifies in L.A. area; near-record temperatures expected
LA TIMES

Floods deluge kills at least 15 in Thailand

BBC


TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA
From AccuWeather

Another Big Snowstorm Next Week... Seriously?
By Heather Buchman, Meteorologist

Violent Thunderstorms Tear through Florida
By Eric Reese, Meteorologist

April Fools Snowstorm Is No Joke
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan

California Weather Extremes at their best!
Record 200-350 inch snow base in Sierra whilst record heat is expected within LA Basin and S. Calif today

High Pressure building over the Deserts of the Southwest has shifted the extremely active Pacific storm train way north, but in it's wake has left the High Sierra buried beneath many 'feet' of snow. Throughout the Deserts of the Southwest and under high pressure, temps will get into the 90s, even low 100s today with even 80s and 90s spreading westwards into the coastal valleys of Southern California and the LA Basin thanks to an easterly flow blowing from the interior deserts.

This is in stark contrast to the hundreds of inches of snow which lie in the high, tree-lined valleys of the Sierra from Tahoe in the north to Mammoth Basin in the south, not too terribly far from the same areas which may see low 100s today. Remember, Death Valley isn't too far south of the southern flank of the Sierra Nevada. Today may see a contrast of 100 degree heat in low-elevation desert valley floors whilst surrounding peaks, penetrating 10,000 feet or more into the blue sky that is buried under 50 or more inches of snow and temps only in the 20s and 30s! That's California for ya!

WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?

Rainfall Tops 50 Inches in Southern Thailand
Jim Andrews, International Expert, AccuWeather

Snow and Severe Weather Maps for the April Fools' Storm
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 103 degrees at Death Valley, CA
LOW: 4 degrees at Kabetgama, MN

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 66 degrees (18.8C) at Santon Downham (Suffolk)
LOW: 30 degrees (-1.3C) at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 49 degrees
LOW: 42 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

30 March, 2011

FOLLOW THE BLOG ON FACEBOOK & TWITTER

TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

TOMORROW'S POST WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT THE POTENTIALLY MAJOR APRIL FOOLS DAY NOR'EASTER AND IT'S IMPACTS, STAY TUNED!





2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be more active, Have more US Landfalls
ACCUWEATHER NEWS

A snowy winter in eastern Canada
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Temperatures could reach 90s as heat wave hits L.A.
LA TIMES

Thailand braces for more rain
BBC WEATHER

Potential April Fools Day Nor'easter Thurs night into Fri, How much snow, how bad will it be?

More info and discussion on tomorrow's post!







TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE
By Mark Vogan

an overview of the current pattern across europe...

Southern Spain Warming nicely whilst cold struggles to retreat over Scandinavia and into western Russia


Current European 500mb geopotential for today across Europe

The drumbeat of change continues across extreme southern areas of the continent with that slow transition from winter into summer as the sub-tropical ridge begins to work it's way northwards, leaving it's winter position as far south as it can go and now northwest and Saharan Africa are heating up as we approach April. It's also warming up across far southwest Europe where areas from Gibraltar, Malaga up to Seville are reaching daytime highs up to 25 or 26C. The Canary Islands to the south off the Morrocco coast, a common British holiday destination stays mild and at times warm throughout winter as a weakened sub-tropical ridge remains over the area but as that same sub-tropical high builds overhead, temps are now pushing 24 to 26C and growing warmer and warmer.

Sub-Tropical Ridge over northwest Africa pumps summer-like heat into southern Spain producing highs of 21-24C

Whilst high pressure brings sunny skies across NW Africa, far southern Spain and the western Med, there is a boundary between settled and unsettled sitting between Madrid and Paris with periods of on-off showers as well as embedded heavier showers existing from Paris up to London and this extends northeastwards across central Europe towards the Baltics.

Basically, there is a large push of Atlantic air riding up and over the sub-tropical high over North Africa and over the central and northern boundary of this strong southwest Atlantic flow with lower pressure over Ireland, rain and gusty winds blow in, funnelled in between the low off the coast of the UK and high pressure over northwest Africa/southern Spain.

Whilst it's unsettled with periods of rains showers and sunny spells across London, a more solid cloud deck and breezier conditions can be found the further north you go

With this pattern over western Europe, there is literally no cold air, to the north, Paris remains warm and generally settled, London is also warm or at least mild with shower activity in between sunny spells. Further north and up through the Midlands, Manchester and up Glasgow, across to Edinburgh clouds are more prominant as well as rainfall. Periodic gusty winds also blow in. It appears windier conditions will be felt across Scotland tomorrow with potentially gale-force winds possible along the exposed southwest facing shores, with even gusty gale-force conditions felt for a time inland. Temperatures remain mild at around 10-11C.

Winter cold and outbreaks of snow continue to plaque Norway, Sweden and Finland as well as European Russia

Europe has an increasing temperature contrast these days as southern Spain reflects summer-like conditions with 25C highs, however with highs barely reaching freezing or only slightly above in the large cities across southern Scandinavia of Oslo, Stockholm, Helsinki and over to Moscow, it would seem winter doesn't want to let go of this region. That same push of Atlantic air that's providing the unsettled weather across the UK and Ireland doesn't stop once at Belgium, the Netherlands or Denmark, it freely flows across the flat fields of the Low Countries and strikes the higher, mountainous areas of northern Europe and with cold air entrenched across the region, heavy snows continue to break out.

A Warm high lay down across central Europe beneath the cold trough locked down over Scandinavia promoting highs from 12 to 18C stretching from Paris, France, Antwerp, Belgium, all the way across Germany, Poland and even as far east as Kiev, Ukraine

Yes, it would appear the cold stops once south of the Baltic Sea and beneath the cold lies a warm pool sitting over the interior and pumping warmth that the same high that's centered from the Canaries to Libya, the warmth is cycling up and over the ridge and being shoved inbetween lower pressure up over Ireland and Scotland, so all the warmth is driving northeast and then east across the population heart of the continent.

TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA
From AccuWeather



Northeast Faces Heavy Snow as March Comes to a Close
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist


Thunderstorms Pound Florida Wednesday Night
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Flooding Shifting to Mississippi River, Upper Midwest
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Chilly, Rainy First Day of Baseball
By Gina Cherundolo, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer



WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan

For all of last summer, the warmest at my house was 76 degrees, 89 degrees for all of UK

Have you wondered just how warm we will get this summer? Will we see much in the way of nice, sunny weather or will it be yet another washout?

Be sure to check out tomorrow's blog post for some of my preliminary summer ideas for the UK and Europe...

Eastern US set for Major Nor'easter Thursday night, Friday morning. No true end in sight for colder, stormy pattern in east through April.

It would appear that given the overall pattern in play and the prospects of a major coastal storm this upcoming April Fools Day that summer isn't quite round the corner for the Eastern third just yet and may not be for a while.

Despite those beautiful 70s that spread up the I-95 corridor a week past last Friday, the overall setup has been somewhat on the cool side. The winter overall has been stormy and cold and this looks set to continue through much of spring.

Unfortunately, it is looking more and more likely with quite strong cold air pooled over northern Canada and Hudson Bay that it will remain cold, perhaps near record cold come April 5-15th over the Northeast US as the northwest flow down through the Ohio Valley will continue to distribute waves of chilly air down the pipe and into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The computer models suggest this as a large upper level ridge builds over the Great Basin. I wouldn't be surprised to see not one but two, perhaps three more coastal storms ride up the East Coast before the warmth really arrives in the East for the upcoming summer season.

WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?

A Break is Coming, But It Isn't Likely to Last
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather

Brown Declares California Drought Is Over
Ken Clark, Western Expert, AccuWeather

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 92 degrees at Palm Springs, CA
LOW: -1 degrees at Embarrass, MN

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 48 degrees
LOW: 44 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

30 March, 2011

FOLLOW THE BLOG ON FACEBOOK & TWITTER

TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

TOMORROW'S POST WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT THE POTENTIALLY MAJOR APRIL FOOLS DAY NOR'EASTER AND IT'S IMPACTS, STAY TUNED!





2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be more active, Have more US Landfalls
ACCUWEATHER NEWS

A snowy winter in eastern Canada
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Temperatures could reach 90s as heat wave hits L.A.
LA TIMES

Thailand braces for more rain
BBC WEATHER

Potential April Fools Day Nor'easter Thurs night into Fri, How much snow, how bad will it be?

More info and discussion on tomorrow's post!







TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE
By Mark Vogan

an overview of the current pattern across europe...

Southern Spain Warming nicely whilst cold struggles to retreat over Scandinavia and into western Russia


Current European 500mb geopotential for today across Europe

The drumbeat of change continues across extreme southern areas of the continent with that slow transition from winter into summer as the sub-tropical ridge begins to work it's way northwards, leaving it's winter position as far south as it can go and now northwest and Saharan Africa are heating up as we approach April. It's also warming up across far southwest Europe where areas from Gibraltar, Malaga up to Seville are reaching daytime highs up to 25 or 26C. The Canary Islands to the south off the Morrocco coast, a common British holiday destination stays mild and at times warm throughout winter as a weakened sub-tropical ridge remains over the area but as that same sub-tropical high builds overhead, temps are now pushing 24 to 26C and growing warmer and warmer.

Sub-Tropical Ridge over northwest Africa pumps summer-like heat into southern Spain producing highs of 21-24C

Whilst high pressure brings sunny skies across NW Africa, far southern Spain and the western Med, there is a boundary between settled and unsettled sitting between Madrid and Paris with periods of on-off showers as well as embedded heavier showers existing from Paris up to London and this extends northeastwards across central Europe towards the Baltics.

Basically, there is a large push of Atlantic air riding up and over the sub-tropical high over North Africa and over the central and northern boundary of this strong southwest Atlantic flow with lower pressure over Ireland, rain and gusty winds blow in, funnelled in between the low off the coast of the UK and high pressure over northwest Africa/southern Spain.

Whilst it's unsettled with periods of rains showers and sunny spells across London, a more solid cloud deck and breezier conditions can be found the further north you go

With this pattern over western Europe, there is literally no cold air, to the north, Paris remains warm and generally settled, London is also warm or at least mild with shower activity in between sunny spells. Further north and up through the Midlands, Manchester and up Glasgow, across to Edinburgh clouds are more prominant as well as rainfall. Periodic gusty winds also blow in. It appears windier conditions will be felt across Scotland tomorrow with potentially gale-force winds possible along the exposed southwest facing shores, with even gusty gale-force conditions felt for a time inland. Temperatures remain mild at around 10-11C.

Winter cold and outbreaks of snow continue to plaque Norway, Sweden and Finland as well as European Russia

Europe has an increasing temperature contrast these days as southern Spain reflects summer-like conditions with 25C highs, however with highs barely reaching freezing or only slightly above in the large cities across southern Scandinavia of Oslo, Stockholm, Helsinki and over to Moscow, it would seem winter doesn't want to let go of this region. That same push of Atlantic air that's providing the unsettled weather across the UK and Ireland doesn't stop once at Belgium, the Netherlands or Denmark, it freely flows across the flat fields of the Low Countries and strikes the higher, mountainous areas of northern Europe and with cold air entrenched across the region, heavy snows continue to break out.

A Warm high lay down across central Europe beneath the cold trough locked down over Scandinavia promoting highs from 12 to 18C stretching from Paris, France, Antwerp, Belgium, all the way across Germany, Poland and even as far east as Kiev, Ukraine

Yes, it would appear the cold stops once south of the Baltic Sea and beneath the cold lies a warm pool sitting over the interior and pumping warmth that the same high that's centered from the Canaries to Libya, the warmth is cycling up and over the ridge and being shoved inbetween lower pressure up over Ireland and Scotland, so all the warmth is driving northeast and then east across the population heart of the continent.

TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA
From AccuWeather



Northeast Faces Heavy Snow as March Comes to a Close
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist


Thunderstorms Pound Florida Wednesday Night
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Flooding Shifting to Mississippi River, Upper Midwest
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Chilly, Rainy First Day of Baseball
By Gina Cherundolo, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer



WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan

For all of last summer, the warmest at my house was 76 degrees, 89 degrees for all of UK

Have you wondered just how warm we will get this summer? Will we see much in the way of nice, sunny weather or will it be yet another washout?

Be sure to check out tomorrow's blog post for some of my preliminary summer ideas for the UK and Europe...

Eastern US set for Major Nor'easter Thursday night, Friday morning. No true end in sight for colder, stormy pattern in east through April.

It would appear that given the overall pattern in play and the prospects of a major coastal storm this upcoming April Fools Day that summer isn't quite round the corner for the Eastern third just yet and may not be for a while.

Despite those beautiful 70s that spread up the I-95 corridor a week past last Friday, the overall setup has been somewhat on the cool side. The winter overall has been stormy and cold and this looks set to continue through much of spring.

Unfortunately, it is looking more and more likely with quite strong cold air pooled over northern Canada and Hudson Bay that it will remain cold, perhaps near record cold come April 5-15th over the Northeast US as the northwest flow down through the Ohio Valley will continue to distribute waves of chilly air down the pipe and into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The computer models suggest this as a large upper level ridge builds over the Great Basin. I wouldn't be surprised to see not one but two, perhaps three more coastal storms ride up the East Coast before the warmth really arrives in the East for the upcoming summer season.

WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?

A Break is Coming, But It Isn't Likely to Last
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather

Brown Declares California Drought Is Over
Ken Clark, Western Expert, AccuWeather

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 92 degrees at Palm Springs, CA
LOW: -1 degrees at Embarrass, MN

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 48 degrees
LOW: 44 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

DEEPWATER HORIZON'S UNCOUNTED VICTIMS

(Killer whales. Photo by Pittman, courtesy NOAA, via Wikimedia Commons.)

A new paper in Conservation Letters calculates that the numbers of whales and dolphins killed in BP's Deepwater Horizon disaster could be 50 times higher than the number of carcasses found. 

The authors—a high-powered list of renowned cetacean researchers from Canada, the US, Australia, and Scotland (including Scott Krause, who I filmed years ago for a documentary about North Atlantic right whales)—write of a general misperception of the Deepwater Horizon impact:

Many media reports have suggested that the spill caused only modest environmental impacts, in part because of a low number of observed wildlife mortalities, especially marine mammals.

(Atlantic spotted dolphins. Photo by Bmatulis, via Wikimedia Commons.)

Compared to the 1989 Exxon Valdez, with its iconic oiled otters and high body counts, the Deepwater Horizon seems, well, not so bad.

The authors point out that "only" 101 dead cetaceans (whales, dolphins, and porpoises) were found in the Northern Gulf of Mexico as of 7 November 2010. The number's misleading though.

The issue arises when policymakers, legislators, or biologists treat these carcass-recovery counts as though they were complete counts or parameters estimated from some representative sample, when in fact, they are opportunistic observations. Our study suggests that these opportunistic observations should be taken to estimate only the bare minimum number of human-caused mortalities.

(Humpback whale. Photo by Whit Welles Wwelles14, via Wikimedia Commons.)

So how many more whales, dolphins, and porpoises actually died? That problem is tough to figure to begin with and is compounded by a dearth of data in the Gulf—a fact that will work greatly in BP's favor when the time comes to levy fines.

The Gulf of Mexico is a semi-enclosed subtropical sea that forms essentially one ecosystem with many demographically independent cetacean populations. Some of these cetacean populations, such as killer whales (Orcinus orca), false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens), melonheaded whales (Peponocephala electra), and several beaked whale species, appear to be quite small, are poorly studied, or are found in the pelagic realm where they could have been exposed to oil and yet never strand. Small, genetically isolated populations of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) could have experienced substantial losses either inshore or offshore.

(Mother and calf bottlenose dolphins. Photo by M. Herko, courtesy NOAA, via Wikimedia Commons.) 

Two methods of extrapolation could shed light on how many cetaceans BP's disaster killed:

1. Compare abundance before the disaster to abundance after—but since we don't know the population size of whale and dolphins species in the Gulf before hand we're unlikely to notice anything short of "the most catastrophic decline" and maybe not even that.
2. Count the number of carcasses recovered—knowing that many will evade our count, having sunk, decayed, been scavenged, or drifted away. So adjust the counts upward to estimate total mortality. This approach is used to estimate bird deaths at power lines, where, in at least one instance, we now know that bird body counts underestimate total actual deaths by a whopping 32 percent.
   

The authors worked the two methods as best they could and added something more.

Given the magnitude of the spill and complexity of the response, quantifying the ecological impacts will take a long time. To contribute to this effort, we examined historical data from the Northern Gulf of Mexico to evaluate whether cetacean carcass counts in this region have previously been reliable indicators of mortality, and may therefore accurately represent deaths caused by the Deepwater Horizon/BP event.

(Sperm whale. Photo courtesy NOAA, via Wikimedia Commons.) 

Their methods and analysis suggest that an average of 4,474 cetaceans died in the northern Gulf every year between 2003 and 2007 from all causes, human and natural. Yet since an average of only 17 bodies were found in those years, the body count represented only ~0.4 percent of total deaths.
 

Consider, for example, one sperm whale being detected as a carcass, and a necropsy identified oiling as a contributing factor in the whale’s death. If the carcass-detection rate for sperm whales is 3.4%, then it is plausible that 29 sperm whale deaths represents the best estimate of total mortality, given no additional information. If, for example, 101 cetacean carcasses were recovered overall, and all deaths were attributed to oiling, the average-recovery rate (2%) would translate to 5,050 carcasses, given the 101 carcasses detected.

Those are chilling numbers. Period. But also in light of the relatively tiny populations of cetaceans in the Gulf. Especially since most if not all cetaceans are highly social, and since oil and chemical dispersants likely injured, sickened, or killed entire clusters, schools, pods, matrilines, or groups at the same time—and may still be doing so.

The authors describe the near-lethal affect of the Exxon Valdez disaster on one well-known and well-studied pod of killer whales in Alaska.

In the first year after the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill, the AT1 group of "transient" killer whales experienced a 41% loss; there has been no reproduction since the spill. Although the cause of the apparent sterility is unknown, the lesson serves as an important reminder that immediate death is not the only factor that can lead to long-term loss of population viability.

(Pilot whale mother and calf. Photo by Clark Anderson via Wikimedia Commons.)

The paper:

Rob Williams, Shane Gero, Lars Bejder, John Calambokidis, Scott D. Kraus, David Lusseau, Andrew J. Read, & Jooke Robbins (2011). Underestimating the damage: interpreting cetacean carcass recoveries in the context of the Deepwater Horizon/BP incident Conservation Letters : 10.1111/j.1755-263X.2011.00168.x

29 March, 2011

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TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Radiation from Fukushima, Japan travels across Pacific Ocean, North America, Atlantic Ocean and now traced in Glasgow, Scotland, other areas of Europe

The headquarters building of the Tokyo Electric Power Co., also known as TEPCO, at the base of the communications tower in the middle, is seen in TokyoMonday, March 28, 2011. The company, which runs the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant at the center of the country's nuclear crisis, has issued a series of botched radiation readings from the plant in recent days

How has this radiation, albeit fractional quantities made it all the way over to Scotland? Blame the wrong time of year! Huh? Well our hemisphere is undergoing large-scale seasonal changes. As winter retreats and warmth builds north from the equator as summer approaches, the imbalance that occurs when converging warm air with cold air masses results in the strengthening of both the upper-level steering winds and ocean storm systems that circle the world. Thanks to the volatile spring atmosphere, the transport potential of storm bearing jet stream winds means a more conducive transporter of such entities as the airborne Fukushima radiation. Scotland is really just the latest in an ever lengthening list of countries which are reporting traces of this iodine 131. We should just be grateful that we're too far away and the release of this radioactive substance is low in concentration.

By Mark Vogan

Low levels of radiation from Japan detected in Glasgow
STV

'Fukushima nuclear plant' radiation found at UK sites
BBC

Fukushima fallout reaches Europe, but traces tiny
PUBLIC OPINION


Find out more about Fukushima:


Fukushima Fallout - How Dangerous Is Japan's Creeping Nuclear Disaster?
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Fukushima I nuclear accidents
WIKIPEDIA

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First 15-days of April: East to remain cold whilst West warms up
Given the overall pattern, the breaking down of the La Nina and other factors, it would seem that the East will remain under a persistent trough whilst ridging will begin to build, pumping heat up from the Baja and northwest Mexican deserts into the Great Basin. We may be be looking at an East-West slide from below normal to above normal with records possibly breaking over the next 15 days...

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WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan

If Radiation can float from Japan to Britain via the jet stream and storm systems, what else can?

Today's annoucement that small quantities of radiation that originated from the Fukushima Nuclear Plant in Japan which has been detected here in Glasgow made me think a little about what else must be transported here from thousands of miles away and float through our air in which we breathe it in.

Whether it be the smoke from distant wildfires burning across the tree lined plateaus of the American West or in the tinder-dry brush of Greece, Or the toxic smog from heavily polluted cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Mexico City or even Tokyo. Or the desert sand which becomes airborne from those violent dust storms that rage across the deserts of the Middle East and the Sahara of North Africa?

These are all events that can, do and have effected our air quality here in the UK in the past. Well, perhaps not the smog from Beijing, Shanghai, Mexico City or even Tokyo, however, it would likely amaze you at what really floats through the air in which you and I breathe in, day in and day out.

Acid rain, must come from somewhere right?

We just need to remember back to around this time last year when it all kicked off with the flight chaos created by our volcanic friend up in Iceland. That is perhaps the most well know entity to us in which a disruptive substance becomes airborne via an eruption and gets injested along with other chemicals up into the jet stream or prevailing wind flow, if one is nearby.

Even under a high pressure cell, a volcanic ash cloud and wildfire smoke often rises up into the atmosphere, getting so far before spreading out. Eventually a change of wind flow, direction or speed will then transport the smoke or ash downstream. Last spring's Icelandic ash cloud just so happened to get caught up in a northwest flow which brought the cloud down over Britain and much of Europe.

If one looks at the path and movement of the radiation from the Fukushima Nuclear Plant, you can see clearly the very prominant west to east flow of 'overall weather'. When looking at the movement of this radiation plume you can visually see the t potential of storm bearing jet the same powerful storm system which rolled into the America West Coast producing the vast amounts of snow in the Californian Sierra. Amazingly he radiation can be seen clearly spiralling and wrapping around the low pressure center as it approaches the US West Coast.

VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA

B1 Latest Position: Very sluggish, and refusing to gain momentum. Reason. Bay waters SST not very conducive at 29c. And resistance wind from a very stubborn M3.



Core pressure at 1006 mb, down 2 points, wind at 20 knts and situated at 8.9N and 98.6E.


Should roughly follow the forecast pattern put up, may end up a day early.

Even though it has slid into Nepal, M3 still precipitating rain/snow in Kashmir and H.P.Even Northern regions of Pakistan had medium precipitation on Tuesday.

Should move away by now, and make way for A1, coming to N.India/Pakistan around 2nd. April.

The high (43c) anticipated in Sindh before Wednesday was recorded on Tuesday at Nawabshah, at 43c. Strong 33 kmph winds kept the day temperature down to 33c in Karachi.

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HIGH: 90 degrees at Yuma, AZ
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TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 50 degrees
LOW: 42 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark