Predict Weather: February 2011

Monday, February 28, 2011

28 February, 2011

IMPORTANT NOTICE: From March 9-21, 2011, I shall be on holiday in New Jersey, USA and therefore won't be blogging, I hope to post some during my holiday, updating on what I'm doing, where I'm visiting and what's the weather like but the usual posts will resume on March 21, 2011...

TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

MUDSLIDE MONDAY SPECIAL!

Fallen: The landslide began when a hilltop collapsed under heavy rains

(Image Courtesy of Daily Mail)

Devastated: Mudslides have destroyed more than 400 houses in La Paz, Bolivia

(Image Courtesy of Daily Mail)

At least 400 homes destroyed in Bolivian mudslide but no more deaths after weeks of lethal weather
DAILY MAIL

La Paz mudslide destroys 400 homes
DAILY TELEGRAPH

All that's needed is hilly terrain & rainfall but in many occations, they hit areas where people reside at the bottom of these often steep hillsides and in parts of the world which recieve heavy rains, often continuous for days.

By Mark Vogan

Mankind continue to expand cities which lie in extremely vuneruble places. They often look beautiful with their surrounding hills and mountains or they simply live on top or within them, however, despite landslides occuring regularly in many parts of the world and we all see their destruction, people fail to see the danger in which they live with day by day. What lies beneath or around them is an ever present and ultimately inevitable danger.

Bolivia is by far not the only place vunerable to Landslides, here are other examples of their distruction in other parts of the world!

IN OTHER NEWS TODAY

Image Courtesy of 'The Local'

Deep freeze puts Baltic on track for record ice

THE LOCAL

Deep freeze set to hold for several weeks

THE LOCAL

Largest earthquake since 1969 rattles Arkansas
TODAY'STHV.COM

Volcanic eruptions driving prices higher
"Since late November, Kizimen, Sheveluch, Karymsky, and Kliuchevskoi have been erupting almost constantly.”
ICEAGENOW.COM

Karymsky volcano rumbles away (Image Courtesy of Iceagenow.com)

TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA
From AccuWeather

Tornado, Strong Storm Threat for Southeast, Mid-Atlantic
By Bill Deger, Meteorologist

Disruptive Snow, Ive For New England, Southeast Canada
By Bill Deger, Meteorologist

New Storm Bringing Rain, Snow to Pacific Northwest
By Bill Deger, Meteorologist

WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan

PART 1: COLDEST HIGH'S AND LOW'S OF WINTER 2010-2011 ACROSS EUROPE'S CITIES

City                             High/Low         Longest period below freezing

Glasgow, Scotland:     High 18, Low 7     Dec 17-24, 2010 (8 days)

Edinburgh, Scotland    High 19, Low 3     Dec 17-24, 2010 (8 days)

De Bilt, Netherlands    High 21, Low 12    Dec 17-24, 2010 (8 days)

Copenhagen, Denmark High 25, Low 10   Dec 13-30, 2010 (13 days)

Oslo, Norway             High 7, Low -6       Dec 1-30, 2010 (30 days)

Prague, Czech Rep     High 14, Low 2      Jan 27-Feb 3, 2011 (8 days)

Berlin, Germany           High 19, Low 6     Dec 13-22, 2010 (10 days)

Budapest, Hungary      High 19, Low 9     Dec 26, 2010-Jan 1, 2011 (7 days)

Warsaw, Poland          High 12, Low 0     Feb 13-28, 2011 (16 days)

Moscow, Russia          High -3, Low -16 Jan 12-Feb 2, 2011 (22 days)

Tallinn, Estonia           High 4, Low -18   Dec 8, 2010-Jan 7, 2011 (31 days)

Helsinki, Finland          High -1, Low -20 Dec 1, 2010-Jan 8, 2011 (39 days)

MORE STATS FROM OTHER CITIES, ON OTHER CONTINENTS COMING UP!

STATS COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER PRO

WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?

Good Morning Virginia. Yes, There is a Tornado Watch
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

Severe Weather Today... Snow and Ice across the Northeast
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 90 degrees at Brownsville, TX
LOW: -19 degrees at Boulder, WY

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 44 degrees
LOW: 24 degrees

TODAY'S CONDITIONS (LOCALLY)
Today started off cold under an overnight of clear skies and light winds which allowed the temperature to fall to the chilliest levels of February, though it was warmer both overall this month as well as the lowest temperature achieved than last February. The coldest low last February was 19 degrees and there was more snow (markedly so in the nearby hills where the midpoint of last February saw the deepest snow in the Campsies all of last winter at around 2 feet deep.) Today overall stayed picture perfect with clear, sunny skies and mild temperatures.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

28 February, 2011

Fallen: The landslide began when a hilltop collapsed under heavy rains

(Image Courtesy of Daily Mail)

Devastated: Mudslides have destroyed more than 400 houses in La Paz, Bolivia

(Image Courtesy of Daily Mail)

At least 400 homes destroyed in Bolivian mudslide but no more deaths after weeks of lethal weather
DAILY MAIL

La Paz mudslide destroys 400 homes
DAILY TELEGRAPH

IN OTHER NEWS TODAY

Image Courtesy of 'The Local'

Karymsky volcano rumbles away (Image Courtesy of Iceagenow.com)

TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA
From AccuWeather

ILLUSTRATED: THE CRAB NEBULA THROUGH TIME

(M1: The Crab Nebula, captured by the Hubble Space Telescope, 2009. Credit: NASA, ESA)

Towards the end of my book DEEP BLUE HOME I wrote about the cave paintings of Mexico's Baja Peninsula—truly a wonder of the world—including an image of the Crab Nebula supernova from the year 1054.

[O]ne of the most modest paintings on view anywhere in Baja California: a small depiction in ochre of a childlike sun, with lines radiating from a circle, nestled beside the outline of another circle more than half ﬁlled with ochre pigment.

(North American rock art depicting the Crab Nebula supernova, circa 1054. Illustration: Harry W. Crosby, from The Cave Paintings of Baja California.)

You can see the art I'm describing on the far left in the image above:

The story of this image has a long lineage, and the starting place for its rediscovered meaning dates back to the year 1054, when Chinese astronomers noted a guest star in the constellation Taurus and recorded that its glow was visible in the daytime sky for twenty-three days and in the nighttime sky for six hundred ﬁfty-three days.

Little more thought was given to this celestial light for a long time. It was not noted in 1731 when the English doctor and astronomer John Bevis ﬁrst observed a nebulous cloud within our own Milky Way galaxy nor, more than a century later, when another English astronomer named it the Crab Nebula. The visit of the guest star was nearly forgotten until the early twentieth century, when—working backward in time to calculate the rate of expansion—astronomers surmised that the Crab Nebula was the remains of the 1054 supernova observed by ancient astronomers.

(The crablike sketch made in 1844 by William Parsons, 3rd Earl of Rosse, for which the nebula was named. Image courtesy Wikimedia Commons.)

Later the American astronomer William Miller calculated that the 1054 supernova appeared in western North America in dazzling conjunction with a crescent moon. He correlated this sight to two pieces of prehistoric rock art in Arizona, each depicting a star beside a crescent moon. Later astronomers found strikingly similar rock art of conjunct stars and crescents at other sites in the American Southwest. In 1971 the explorer Harry Crosby, traveling by mule in the Sierra de San Francisco, came upon this image of a star and a moon—the only painting of its kind in the murals of Baja California, which he later surmised was also an image of the 1054 supernova.

(Chaco Canyon, 1054 supernova rock art. Photo via.)

Astronomy Picture of the Day (APOD) describes the Crab Nebula as "the mess left after a star explodes," filled with mysterious filaments:

The filaments are not only tremendously complex, but appear to have less mass than expelled in the original supernova and a higher speed than expected from a free explosion. In the nebula's very center lies a pulsar: a neutron star as massive as the Sun but with only the size of a small town. The Crab Pulsar rotates about 30 times each second.

(Crab Pulsar Wind Nebula, 2008. Credit: NASA.)

This deep x-ray image of the Crab Pulsar taken from the orbiting Chandra Observatory provided the first clear view of the ghostly edges of the pulsar's wind nebula. From APOD:

The pulsar's energy accelerates charged particles, producing eerie, glowing x-ray jets directed away from the poles and an intense wind in the equatorial direction. Intriguing edges are created as the charged particles stream away, eventually losing energy as they interact with the pulsar's strong magnetic field.

It's astonishing to think how much we've seen—and learned to see—in less than the blink of a universe. Of course the real timeline of events is even more profound. Back to my excerpt:

The 1054 supernova occurred 6,300 years before anyone on Earth witnessed it. The explosion dismantled a star more than 37,000 trillion miles away from us. The blast radiated as much energy as our sun will emit in the course of its life, and its light traveled at the fastest speed possible, the speed of light itself, yet it still took more than sixty centuries to get here.

(Credit: Danny LaCrue & the ESA/ESO/NASA Photoshop FITS Liberator.)

The beautiful mess of the Crab Nebula.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

27 February, 2011

FOLLOW THE BLOG ON FACEBOOK

TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Police name two more earthquake victims, toll rises to 148
NZ HERALD

Christchurch earthquake: 'This is no place to live any more'
NZ HERALD

Christchurch earthquake: Toll likely to top 200
NZ HERALD

IN OTHER NEWS TODAY

A Messy, Stormy Day for Cornerbrook, Newfoundland

(Image Courtesy of The Weather Network)

Major roads open after cold front drops snow, ice
LA TIMES

Snow Piles Up Across Newfoundland
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Maritimers Cleanup After Major Snowfall
THE WEATHER NETWORK

TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS THE UK & EUROPE
By Mark Vogan

A return to more settled weather for UK as High Pressure settles in

As the United Kingdom enjoys more settled, brighter weather to start the workweek, days will be slightly cooler after pushing 13 to 15C late last week as we all loose that warm southwest flow and of course with higher pressure sitting overhead which brings lighter winds and clearer skies, we see a return to frosty nights and with a cooler base by morning, that means it's likely daytime readings will fall short of those warm readings last week, however a higher angled, longer duartion of sunshine may do it's work at warming us up nicely, particularly in shektered areas, but where a breeze lingers, it should remain off the 10C mark. We're likely to see highs range between 10 or 12C in the south to between 5 or 6C in areas which tend to feel a cool breeze to 8 or 9C in sheltered areas in the north. What would you rather, cooler, though still relatively mild but sunny days or warm days but wet and windy dull conditions? I know what I would rather!

It's interesting that despite a breeze today, when standing in the sunshine, you can really feel the warmth back in the sun as the shadows are really start to shrink as that sun climbs much higher in the sky. I'm noticing now that we still had daylight this evening till 6.45pm and on clear mornings daylight is creeping up by as early as 6.15am now. The late departure of daylight in the evenings and early arrival in the mornings combined with a higher angled late February sun, it is starting to make a difference in temperatures as that stronger sun is managing to heat up the surface and the feeling you get from the sun is noticable.

Eastern Europe returns to normal temperatures for the time of year, FINALLY! Significant low temperatures were recorded during the last 2 weeks...

After what has seemed weeks of bitter, Arctic cold, temperatures have moderated considerably after around 2 full weeks where Helsinki, Tallinn and Moscow as well as surrounding towns have fallen below 0 degrees F or -18C every night. Many cities of what has become frozen eastern Europe where a region stretching from far northern Sweden and Finland all the way to the Ukraine have endured persistent severe cold and periods of snow with temperatures well below even the levels of midwinter and actually recieving not only the coldest February temperatures in years but the coldest winter temperatures in years. For example, Tallinn, Estonia fell to a frigid -18F or -28C. This is not only the coldest temperature recorded since at least 1998 during the month of February but it's the coldest reading for any of the winter months in at least 14 years. For Helsinki, Finland, the -20F or -29C low was the coldest February low in 12 years and the coldest temperature of any winter month in 8 years. In Riga, Latvia, the -15F or -26C reading here was the coldest February reading since at least 1998 but there was a lower reading of -18F not that long ago in January 2010. Stockholm, Sweden which fell to -13F tied a reading reached in February 2010 but there hasn't been a lower reading during the month of February since way back in 1996 when a low of -14F was recorded.

TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA
From AccuWeather

Unusual Cold Expected For Oscars Red Carpet
By Bill Deger, Meteorologist

Significant Flood Threat For Ohio Valley, Northeast
By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist

Severe Storms, Tornadoes To Strike Plains, South Tonight
By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist

Texas, New Mexico High Fire Danger on Sunday
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan

USA early in it's first 100-degree high as Laredo, Texas soars to 103-degrees this afternoon

In 2010, it took until April 26 before America saw it's first 100-degree high show up and that was at the well known California and national hotspot of Death Valley where it reached exactly 100.

This year, it's early with today's 103-degree high recorded Feb 27 at another well known Texas and national hot spot of Laredo located in the Rio Grande Valley and along the border with Mexico. Over the years of following US weather, I've come to believe that March appears to be the typical month which not only sees the arrival of 100s anywhere from California to Texas but also this month as well as April appear to be the months which sees the departure of below zero temperatures across the North. Between March and April and only on a few occations such as last spring do we see subzero lows occur into May!

WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?

Severe Weather the Big Story Today
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather

9th Snowiest Winter on Record (more snow forecast for Thursday)

Paul Douglas Weather Column (Weather Nation Founder)

Freezing Rain Warning
Valley Weather (Montreal, QC Area)

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 103 degrees at Laredo, TX
LOW: -19 degrees at Clayton Lake, ME

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 50 degrees
LOW: 29 degrees

TODAY'S CONDITION'S (LOCALLY)

After an overnight which started clear and allowed the temperature to fall to 29 degrees, clouds, rain and breezier conditions rolled in overnight and presented the early morning with a wet, dreary start. However, things cleared nicely by mid to late morning and presented the afternoon and evening with fine, clear and sunny skies and in that sun, it felt pleasant. Clear skies leading into tonight will bring back to potential for a frosty overnight.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

27 February, 2011

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TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

A Messy, Stormy Day for Cornerbrook, Newfoundland

(Image Courtesy of The Weather Network)

Major roads open after cold front drops snow, ice
LA TIMES

Snow Piles Up Across Newfoundland
THE WEATHER NETWORK

Maritimers Cleanup After Major Snowfall
THE WEATHER NETWORK

SUNDAY POETRY: "BEACH GLASS"

BEACH GLASS

by Amy Clampitt

While you walk the water’s edge,
turning over concepts
I can’t envision, the honking buoy
serves notice that at any time
the wind may change
the reef-bell clatters
its treble monotone, deaf as Cassandra
to any note but warning. The ocean,
cumbered by no business more urgent
than keeping open old accounts
that never balanced,
goes on shuffling its millenniums
of quartz, granite, and basalt.
                                              It behaves
toward the permutations of novelty
driftwood and shipwreck, last night’s
beer cans, spilt oil, the coughed-up
residue of plastic—with random
impartiality, playing catch or tag
or touch-last like a terrier,
turning the same thing over and over,
over and over. For the ocean, nothing
is beneath consideration.
                                       The houses
of so many mussels and periwinkles
have been abandoned here, it’s hopeless
to know which to salvage. Instead
I keep a lookout for beach glass
amber of Budweiser, chryoprase
of Almadén and Gallo, lapis
by way of (no getting around it,
I’m afraid) Phillips’
Milk of Magnesia, with now and then a rare
translucent turquoise or blurred amethyst
of no known origin.
                              The process
goes on forever: they came from sand,
they go back to gravel,
along with the treasuries
of Murano, the buttressed
astonishments of Chartres,
which even now are readying
for being turned over and over as gravely
and gradually as an intellect
engaged in the hazardous
redefinition of structures
no one has yet looked at.

(Photo via.)

Saturday, February 26, 2011

26 February, 2011

TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

ANOTHER RECORD COLD MORNING FROM ROCKIES TO PACIFIC OCEAN, RARE SNOW FOR SOME AND NOT OTHER ACROSS CALIFORNIA

CUT BANK, MT HITS 35 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY MORNING, WOLF POINT, MT HITS 37 BELOW ZERO SATURDAY MORNING.

Much of the northwestern and north-central states were once again plunged into the latest in a long series of Arctic air masses to have originated in Arctic Canada and Alaska which sank south and brought subzero highs from eastern Washington and Oregon, across Montana, Wyoming, The Dakotas and into western Minnesota. Overnight lows dropped with ease below zero with Billings recording two consecutive record lows of -14 on Friday morning and -10 Saturday morning with a record cold high of -2 Friday. In northwest Montana, Cut Bank endured a low of 35 below on Friday morning which was the state and national low. As for through the day Friday, high's barely recovered as Cut Bank only managed to 'warm' to -11 but because the corte of cold was moving eastwards throughout the day Friday Cut Bank only fell to a less cold -17, if you can call 17 below 'less cold' eh.

The eastward progression of this air mass was evident as Glasgow in the northeast of 'big sky country' went from a low of -20 on Friday morning to -30 on Saturday morning with a nasty cold high of -9 in between. A well known state icebox called Wolf Point, east of Glasgow in the state's northeast corner stole the statewide and national cold spot off Cut Bank Saturday morning when it saw it' thermometer sink to -37 degrees.

100-degree spread in High Temperature's Yesterday!
The high was -11 degrees at Cut Bank, Montana whilst it was a hot 91 degrees down in Laredo, Texas yesterday!

LATEST ON 'RARE CALIFORNIA SNOW'
DISSAPOINTMENT ALL ROUND SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA!

Photo Courtesy of SFGATE

Icy condtions force closure of Grapevine

LA TIMES

Snow — or something like snow — falls in some parts of L.A. County
Snow Falls On San Francisco’s Twin Peaks, Merced Heights
CBS SF

Light Snow On Twin Peaks; Heavier In Southbay

CBS SF

San Francisco snow: Snow falls in SF, Monterey and is likely to dust Los Angeles-area foothills
LA TIMES

TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA
From AccuWeather

Nusance Snow For the Midwest, Northeast This Weekend
By Bill Deger, Meteorologist

Hail, Blowing Dust Among Hazards of Southwest Storm
By Bill Deger, Meteorologist

WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan

NO FEBRUARY GOING BACK TO 1992 COMES CLOSE TO THE 7.6 BELOW DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL IN FEBRUARY 2011...

OYMYAKON, SIBERIA ENJOYS DAYTIME -20s F AND NIGHTTIME -40s F AFTER SEEING 4 STRAIGHT NIGHTS IN THE -70s F & -40s F BY DAY!

HAS THE WARMING TREND BEGUN FOR THE COLDEST VILLAGE ON EARTH?

After a December and January both above normal but a tougher February with temperatures running 7.6 below normal (F) at the moment and that's with nights moderating to only the -40s, rather than -60s and 70s it's became milder and I wonder if the worst of winter is now over for this truely frigid village in northeast Siberia which hasn't seen close to freezing since early OCTOBER!

For this stage in winter, the average high is now -29F and low of -49F, so there is a heck of a long way to go BUT it would appear that the extremely slow warmup in this part of the world has now begun.

When comparing, last February saw a high on the 1st of 4 degrees which ended up being the warmest. The last few days saw high's creep to within striking distance of 0 degrees or -18C. This February, the warmest occured just today with a high of -29F, so there is a markedly colder February 2011 as compared with 2010. The lowest reading last February was -69F whilst this month has seen 11 nights either as cold or colder with the lowest being -74. Oymyakon has seen two straight nights down to -74 and the third hitting -73. This month has seen amazingly 8 nights of -70 or colder! February 2010 ended up 5.7 degrees above normal whilst it's 7.6 below normal this month.

As for February 2008, the month saw an even lower reading than this year's with a low of -75 but a warmer monthly maximum of -5, but the month ended also much less below normal with -3.4.

February, 2002 was a particularly interesting month as lows fell to as cold as -84 on the 1st, -80 on the 2nd and -77 on the 3rd with highs on those days as frigid as -70, -68 and -64, yet the month overall was 1.3 ABOVE normal.

February, 1996 also saw a low fall below -80 with -81 but even that February ended warmer than normal.

VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA

Continuing from Vagaries' weather narration, F4 has moved eastwards beyond Utteranchal and is weakening into Nepal on Saturday.

Saturday saw Dehra Dun (Utteranchal) having a cold day with the high at 18c, 6c below normal, with 1 mm of rain. In the state's hills, Mussoorie (AWS) had a high of 5.5c, with light rains in the daytime, while Champawat AWS could manage 9c as its day temperature.

Peaks of Garhwal, Badrinath, Kedarnath, Gangotri, Yamunotri, Auli, Nanda Devi and some areas of Munsiyari were covered with fresh snow.

And, though on Saturday Nepal had fairly sparse rain/snow, Kathmandu manag

ed some light traces of rain on Saturday, and was just about in the vicinity, as the sat.image (courtesy Nepal Met) shows.

Onwards to F5 now. This sytem can be seen today, near Dubai and west of Pakistan. It is possible that this system will gain more moisture from the Arabian Sea en-route to the Sub-Continent, as upper air pressure conditions are favourably placed for such an eventuality.

On Pakistan by Sunday night, and good precipitation commencing from Balochistan thru Upper Sindh regions and NWFP into Punjab (Pakistan) on Sunday evening into Monday. As it moves into India on Monday/Tuesday, flow of SW moisture from the Arabian Sea continues, and will result in rains along the Sindh coast, including Karachi on Tuesday. Pockets of heavy thundershowers could be expected along the coast and in the sindh interiors due to vertical depth of the system.

Tuesday, and F5 is on India. Affecting the states of Kashmir and H.P. with snowfall again and Punjab, N.Rajasthan, Haryana and west U.P. with rains. More on F5 monitoring as the system moves into India on Monday.

Meanwhile, NW winds will sweep the plains of India from Tuesday, and 'dry out" the feeble UAC (mentioned below) forming over western Maharashtra.

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THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 91 degrees at Laredo, TX
LOW: -37 degrees at Wolf Point, MT

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 52 degrees
LOW: 41 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Predict Weather

Monday, February 28, 2011

28 February, 2011

28 February, 2011

ILLUSTRATED: THE CRAB NEBULA THROUGH TIME

Sunday, February 27, 2011

27 February, 2011

27 February, 2011

SUNDAY POETRY: "BEACH GLASS"

Saturday, February 26, 2011

26 February, 2011

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