17 October, 2010

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COMING THIS HALLOWEEN ( SUNDAY, OCT 31st)

MARK VOGAN'S OFFICIAL 2010-2011 UNITED KINGDOM AND EUROPE WINTER FORECAST

Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Super Typhoon Megi Aimed for northern Philippines (Credit: NASA/MODIS)

Megi is Strongest Tropical Cyclone of 2010
AccuWeather News

Super Typhoon Megi Eyes Philippines

The Weather Channel

Megi (Korean for "catfish"), became the first tropical cyclone in the western Pacific Basin to achieve "Super Typhoon" status this year, with maximum sustained winds at least 150 mph. Late Sunday morning, peak sustained winds had reached an incredible 180 mph, with gusts estimated to 220 mph! This is easily Category 5 strength.



Its central pressure was measured by reconnaissance aircraft to have plunged as low as 893 mb. While reconnaissance is not routine for western Pacific tropical cyclones, this aircraft not only measured the incredible low pressure and high winds, but also witnessed lighting in the eyewall, a signature of an intensifying tropical cyclone. Read More.

A Tropical Rarity: Atlantic Outdoing Western Pacific
AccuWeather News

Early-Season Cold, Snow Heading to Europe
AccuWeather News

 HOT OCTOBER: Very Warm across the Southeast US but time of year shows by night!
Days are warm to even hot, yet the dry air of fall drives temperatures down into the 40s by night as far south as Florida!

Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather

La Nina Vs. El Nino
AccuWeather

Rainy Time for California, Southwest
AccuWeather

Northwest Storm Train to Soon Ramp Up
AccuWeather

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

Despite the progression of Fall, mild to warm weather persists across the Lower 48, even the north

Although days continue to grow shorter and nights longer, temperatures appear to be holding well across much of the Lower 48 with warm air from the south managing to still creep far enough north to present northern areas with above normal temperatures with 70s getting all the way up into Chicago as well as southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Though this is the case, it's becoming more common for these areas, particularly the northern half of these "northern states" to get below freezing easier as the length of daylight is shortening and with the lower angle at which the sun crosses the skies throughout the day. Unless a strong southerly wind propels heat north, daytime highs are beginning to fall short of those achieved even just a matter of weeks ago.

The cooler the highs become, the easier it is for the cool air of the day to cool quickly once the sun goes down and under clear, calm skies.. add a dusting or perhaps an inch or two of snow and temperatures can really tumble, yes we've reached that time now that any truely warm day should be cherished, especially if you live in the Northern tier states where shadows grow longer by the day.

You'll likely notice that many areas have now bypassed their peak fall colors, some more northern areas may actually have near bare trees by now, especially areas of far northern Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and the UP of Michgan where nights are dropping frequently into freezing territory and days may have a hard time getting out of the 40s and on some days, the 30s.

Folks even across the Central Plains have enjoyed an extended summer with persistent 80s (upper 80s as far north as Valentine, Neb) and even when you see the 70s creep all the way north into Minneapolis, Chicago and Detroit, this though not completely unusual is a blessing compared to some years when these same cities may have seen their first snow flurries, icy winds and sub-freezing nights.. It's obviously one of those October's that wants to hold on to the last gasp of summer weather... my advise is... enjoy it now as, it may be gone tomorrow and when it's gone, it's gone and won't return till next spring!

As for the lucky residents of the Southwest, Southern Plains and Southeast, well winter is a little while off yet and in some places, it may have a tough time arriving this year. Widespread 80s across most areas are holding the turn of the leaves this year and actually continues to still feel summer-like, just without the high humidity and nights are certainly growing much cooler in areas of the S. Plains and Southeast, in fact folks from Dallas and Houston to New Orleans, Atlanta and Charlotte are finding light jackets are needed with temperatures by morning now regularly falling into the 50s, even some 40s are showing up, particularly suburban areas away from the urban heat island. The lows are more normal than the highs for the interior South. Southern California appears to be having their summer now rather than back in June, July and August and of course the recent 90s in the LA Basin and 100s in the desert are simply delightful. The 90s in LA are of course a far-cry from the all-time record-breaking 113 found about 10 days earlier. This winter may continue this warm-streak throughout as I expect more heat than wet, stormy, cool days across Southern and Central California this upcoming winter with some Santa Anas to contend with.

The South is also likely to endure a warm, relatively dry winter overall, a large difference to last year indeed.

What's Reaching Today's Blogs?

Some Action In The Plains This Week
Frank Strait, AccuWeather

Looking For Something To Talk About
Frank Strait, AccuWeather

The Extremes of the Day

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 100 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 18 degrees at Olney, MT

Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

High: 60 degrees at Murlough (Co Antrim)
Low: 26 degrees at Benson (Oxfordshire)

Today's Extremes here at my house


High: 50 degrees
Low: 35 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark