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TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Driest spring for over 100 years, the Met Office says
BBC WEATHER
Massachusetts Survivors Talk About Rush to Safety
THE WEATHER CHANNEL
Massachusetts emergency after tornadoes kill four
BBC WEATHER
Perspective: Massachusetts Tornadoes
THE WEATHER CHANNEL
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan
Scotland's heat on borrowed time as trough is set to return Saturday!
Aberdeen (Dyce) takes price for warmest spot in UK today at 25.4C (78 degrees F)
Southern Uplands and Central Lowlands dissapointingly saw lingering cloud which held temps at bay
Today's lingering cloud held temperatures at bay across a large chunk of southern and central Scotland with clearing and warming at 3pm onwards, too late for any real heating of the surface. Sunnier skies from dawn was found across the central, north Highlands as well as across Grampian with the best of the warm sunshine found across Moray and Aberdeenshire. To the east of the Grampians where there was optimum shelter and even a little downsloping forced heating at Aboyne and Aberdeen Dyce Airport to levels beyond anywhere else in all of the UK.
Downsloping Influence off Grampian Mountains may explain why Aberdeen Airport was warmer than Aboyne
The reason for the highest temperatures across NE Scotland rather than the more classic southeast of England was thanks to the movement and position of the upper low. This movement opened the door for high pressure to arrive into UK airspace from the west, from north of Northern Ireland rather than up from the south. The core of high pressure was actually positioned more over Highland Scotland, not southern England and with abundant sunshine, strong heights and even some geographic influence, areas located to the east of the Grampian Mountains saw the warmest surface temperatures. Aboyne was 24C but it was warmer nearer to the North Sea with Aberdeen Airport topping the list at 25.4C. I think it wasn't so much landlocked shelter but air flowing down the eastern slopes of the Grampians that forced the greatest temperatures. Aboyne is more landlocked and inland than Aberdeen Airport but with a west, southwest flow coming off the hills, Aberdeen Airport is closer to sea level than Aboyne and there was further heating to go once the air flowed past Aboyne as winds would have been still downsloping towards the North Sea, thus explaining why the airport got even warmer than Aboyne did.
Many inland areas of the UK could top 25C Friday, inluding the Scottish Central Belt!
Tomorrow could well be substantially warmer than today as the upper level ridge sits directly over the UK.
No clouds, little wind and strong high atmospheric pressure over the heart of the UK will allow readings soaring towards 25C in many inland areas stretching from south-central England to Invernesshire.
Both Glasgow and Edinburgh could reach 25C as the conditions look favourable.
Locations across the central Highlands such as Aviemore as well as in Aberdeenshire, such as Aboyne, even Aberdeen Airport may eye 26 or even 27C.
A large change comes Friday night into Saturday as a trough returns, dropping temperatures a solid 10C!
Though the above map for Saturday doesn't look all that bad, changes in the mid to upper levels will reflect at the surface, slightly lower 'heights' and a southbound cold front will usher in clouds and showers over the Highlands and perhaps reaching the Central Lowlands. With it comes much lower temperatures as the upper levels see a layer of colder air drawn down from the north.
Areas across far south of Scotland may see less influence from these lower heights and the onslaught of a northern front. Being that bit further south, Dumfries and Galloway as well as the Borders may enjoy more sunshine and temperatures that once again top 21C whereas over a cloudier Central Belt, highs may struggle to reach 16C. The Highlands northward may have a tough time reaching 12 to 14C and that would be a massive 10 to perhaps 13C drop in daytime highs from Friday!
As you can see, there is noticeable progression of the trough and cold pocket of air by Sunday hanging over Scotland. Much lower heights indicate a pretty cool, cloudy, rainy day Sunday across pretty much all of Scotland with Central Lowland highs perhaps struggling to reach 12 or 13C. The northwest Highlands which sees windier conditions combined with heavy rain could struggle to reach 9C...
As for north, central and southern England, well Saturday sees the warm sunshine continue with the the UK's warmest conditions returning south of the border and by Sunday, the highest conditions will likely return to the favoured southeast corner where it may still reach 24 to 26C around Greater London and or Kent.
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan
Temperatures remain scorching over South, new storm enters California!
Another scorcher of a day tomorrow across the Southern US while a refreshing trough and cool pocket of air flows into the Northeast boasting 70s across the region, yet the sun will be in abundance, this doesn't often happen in June.
Another unusual June occurence Out West, a large trough brings chilly sunshine across the Great Basin and Rockies where temperatures will only be in the 60s, 70s across a large portion of the West. Over California, well a chilly low will arrive bringing rain, cloud and even some thunderstorms thanks to cold air aloft!
WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan
90s sizzle area from Poland to Russia
Poland, Ukraine and Russia sweltering in early summer heatwave
Over recent days temperatures have been growing hotter as skies grow sunnier with little or no cloud to stop powerful June rays from punishingly heating the surface across eastern Europe. Thanks to a trough sweeping south over the UK and into France, Spain and Germany, this has forced the dominant high pressure that was parked over France and Germany to migrate eastwards over Poland and reposition itself as well as intensify over the Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania and Russia, stretching way up into subarctic European Russia.
Here is a list of unusually hot temperatures found during the first couple of days of June 2011 across Central & Eastern Europe
Dniprodzerzhyns'k, Ukraine 91 degrees F
Berlin, Germany 90 degrees F
Warsaw, Poland 86 degrees F
Rivne, Ukraine 88 degrees F
St Petersburg, Russia 84 degrees F
Moscow, Russia 84 degrees F
Arkangel, Russia 82 degrees F
VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA
In "Whats the Monsoon scene for Mumbai" put up on 5th May on the Mumbai page, Vagaries had estimated first pre monsoon showers for Mumbai on 3rd June, give or take a day, and re-confirmed this date on 13th May..And continued with the same date in MW-9..28th May. Meteorological reward for having faith in one's forecast!
Mumbai, yes, its 2nd June, and our predicted "pre-Monsoon" showers are here. Heard people announcing the "arrival of the Monsoon" and such discussions on the streets.
Do not jump to fast conclusions. These are "Pre-Monsoon" showers. Convective thundershowers. Which came from the East.
And, these were estimated. 7 mms at both S'Cruz and Colaba against our estimated 8-10 mms (not bad).. Nothing to do with the developing low in the Arabian Sea.
Next 2 days forecast holds good for Mumbai yesterday.
Thunder showers in the evening on Friday/Saturday. Windy with rough seas and cloudy on Sunday. Frequency of showers will increase.(I know the previous blog will not be scrolled by readers -:)))
Vagaries had predicted a system in the Arabian Sea (in the first week of June) in its MW-8, on 24th May. Vagaries had explained its principle of forecasting a system on the 25th of May.
I had pointed out in a reply to svt that Vagaries is the first to announce a formation of a system, before any international model.
98A, is a low now, AS-1, at 1000 mb, off the Goa/Karnataka coast. (Thai Map)
Refering to the Vagaries map put up yesterday, I feel AS-1 will follow the NW track.
My assumption is on the fact that normally a system in these times is guided by the 200 jet streams (besides other factors). In the sat. image, we see cirrus clouds forming to the NW of the system, indicating strong NW jet streams.
As explained yesterday, Vagaries moves the SWM into coastal Karnataka, South interior Karnataka and T.N.
I encourage you to click here and check out our partner blog for great India and Sub-Continental weather....
WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?
Arabian Sea Cyclone Threat
Jim Andrews, International Expert, AccuWeather
Staying Mostly HOT And Dry, Plus Tropics
Frank Strait, AccuWeather
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 106 degrees at Pecos, TX
LOW: 22 degrees at Daggatt Pass, NV
TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE
HIGH: 78 degrees (25.4C) at Aberdeen Dyce (Aberdeenshire)
LOW: 43 degrees (6.2C) at Cavendish
TODAY'S GLOBAL EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE
HIGHEST
48C (118F) at Al Hufuf, Saudi Arabia (Asia)
45C (113F) at Kiffa, Mauritinia (Africa)
43C (109F) at Doha, Qatar (Asia)
41C (106F) at Hermosillo, Mexico (North America)
LOWEST
-74C (-101F) at Vostok Station, Antarctica
-30C (-22F) at Summit Camp, Greenland
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 65 degrees
LOW: 52 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Driest spring for over 100 years, the Met Office says
BBC WEATHER
Massachusetts Survivors Talk About Rush to Safety
THE WEATHER CHANNEL
Massachusetts emergency after tornadoes kill four
BBC WEATHER
Perspective: Massachusetts Tornadoes
THE WEATHER CHANNEL
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan
Scotland's heat on borrowed time as trough is set to return Saturday!
Aberdeen (Dyce) takes price for warmest spot in UK today at 25.4C (78 degrees F)
Southern Uplands and Central Lowlands dissapointingly saw lingering cloud which held temps at bay
Today's lingering cloud held temperatures at bay across a large chunk of southern and central Scotland with clearing and warming at 3pm onwards, too late for any real heating of the surface. Sunnier skies from dawn was found across the central, north Highlands as well as across Grampian with the best of the warm sunshine found across Moray and Aberdeenshire. To the east of the Grampians where there was optimum shelter and even a little downsloping forced heating at Aboyne and Aberdeen Dyce Airport to levels beyond anywhere else in all of the UK.
Downsloping Influence off Grampian Mountains may explain why Aberdeen Airport was warmer than Aboyne
The reason for the highest temperatures across NE Scotland rather than the more classic southeast of England was thanks to the movement and position of the upper low. This movement opened the door for high pressure to arrive into UK airspace from the west, from north of Northern Ireland rather than up from the south. The core of high pressure was actually positioned more over Highland Scotland, not southern England and with abundant sunshine, strong heights and even some geographic influence, areas located to the east of the Grampian Mountains saw the warmest surface temperatures. Aboyne was 24C but it was warmer nearer to the North Sea with Aberdeen Airport topping the list at 25.4C. I think it wasn't so much landlocked shelter but air flowing down the eastern slopes of the Grampians that forced the greatest temperatures. Aboyne is more landlocked and inland than Aberdeen Airport but with a west, southwest flow coming off the hills, Aberdeen Airport is closer to sea level than Aboyne and there was further heating to go once the air flowed past Aboyne as winds would have been still downsloping towards the North Sea, thus explaining why the airport got even warmer than Aboyne did.
Many inland areas of the UK could top 25C Friday, inluding the Scottish Central Belt!
Tomorrow could well be substantially warmer than today as the upper level ridge sits directly over the UK.
No clouds, little wind and strong high atmospheric pressure over the heart of the UK will allow readings soaring towards 25C in many inland areas stretching from south-central England to Invernesshire.
Both Glasgow and Edinburgh could reach 25C as the conditions look favourable.
Locations across the central Highlands such as Aviemore as well as in Aberdeenshire, such as Aboyne, even Aberdeen Airport may eye 26 or even 27C.
A large change comes Friday night into Saturday as a trough returns, dropping temperatures a solid 10C!
Upper level map for Saturday
Though the above map for Saturday doesn't look all that bad, changes in the mid to upper levels will reflect at the surface, slightly lower 'heights' and a southbound cold front will usher in clouds and showers over the Highlands and perhaps reaching the Central Lowlands. With it comes much lower temperatures as the upper levels see a layer of colder air drawn down from the north.
Areas across far south of Scotland may see less influence from these lower heights and the onslaught of a northern front. Being that bit further south, Dumfries and Galloway as well as the Borders may enjoy more sunshine and temperatures that once again top 21C whereas over a cloudier Central Belt, highs may struggle to reach 16C. The Highlands northward may have a tough time reaching 12 to 14C and that would be a massive 10 to perhaps 13C drop in daytime highs from Friday!
Upper level map for Sunday
As you can see, there is noticeable progression of the trough and cold pocket of air by Sunday hanging over Scotland. Much lower heights indicate a pretty cool, cloudy, rainy day Sunday across pretty much all of Scotland with Central Lowland highs perhaps struggling to reach 12 or 13C. The northwest Highlands which sees windier conditions combined with heavy rain could struggle to reach 9C...
As for north, central and southern England, well Saturday sees the warm sunshine continue with the the UK's warmest conditions returning south of the border and by Sunday, the highest conditions will likely return to the favoured southeast corner where it may still reach 24 to 26C around Greater London and or Kent.
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan
Temperatures remain scorching over South, new storm enters California!
Another scorcher of a day tomorrow across the Southern US while a refreshing trough and cool pocket of air flows into the Northeast boasting 70s across the region, yet the sun will be in abundance, this doesn't often happen in June.
Another unusual June occurence Out West, a large trough brings chilly sunshine across the Great Basin and Rockies where temperatures will only be in the 60s, 70s across a large portion of the West. Over California, well a chilly low will arrive bringing rain, cloud and even some thunderstorms thanks to cold air aloft!
By Mark Vogan
90s sizzle area from Poland to Russia
Poland, Ukraine and Russia sweltering in early summer heatwave
Map courtesy of About.com
Over recent days temperatures have been growing hotter as skies grow sunnier with little or no cloud to stop powerful June rays from punishingly heating the surface across eastern Europe. Thanks to a trough sweeping south over the UK and into France, Spain and Germany, this has forced the dominant high pressure that was parked over France and Germany to migrate eastwards over Poland and reposition itself as well as intensify over the Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania and Russia, stretching way up into subarctic European Russia.
Here is a list of unusually hot temperatures found during the first couple of days of June 2011 across Central & Eastern Europe
Dniprodzerzhyns'k, Ukraine 91 degrees F
Berlin, Germany 90 degrees F
Warsaw, Poland 86 degrees F
Rivne, Ukraine 88 degrees F
St Petersburg, Russia 84 degrees F
Moscow, Russia 84 degrees F
Arkangel, Russia 82 degrees F
VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA
In "Whats the Monsoon scene for Mumbai" put up on 5th May on the Mumbai page, Vagaries had estimated first pre monsoon showers for Mumbai on 3rd June, give or take a day, and re-confirmed this date on 13th May..And continued with the same date in MW-9..28th May. Meteorological reward for having faith in one's forecast!
Mumbai, yes, its 2nd June, and our predicted "pre-Monsoon" showers are here. Heard people announcing the "arrival of the Monsoon" and such discussions on the streets.
Do not jump to fast conclusions. These are "Pre-Monsoon" showers. Convective thundershowers. Which came from the East.
And, these were estimated. 7 mms at both S'Cruz and Colaba against our estimated 8-10 mms (not bad).. Nothing to do with the developing low in the Arabian Sea.
Next 2 days forecast holds good for Mumbai yesterday.
Thunder showers in the evening on Friday/Saturday. Windy with rough seas and cloudy on Sunday. Frequency of showers will increase.(I know the previous blog will not be scrolled by readers -:)))
Vagaries had predicted a system in the Arabian Sea (in the first week of June) in its MW-8, on 24th May. Vagaries had explained its principle of forecasting a system on the 25th of May.
I had pointed out in a reply to svt that Vagaries is the first to announce a formation of a system, before any international model.
98A, is a low now, AS-1, at 1000 mb, off the Goa/Karnataka coast. (Thai Map)
Refering to the Vagaries map put up yesterday, I feel AS-1 will follow the NW track.
My assumption is on the fact that normally a system in these times is guided by the 200 jet streams (besides other factors). In the sat. image, we see cirrus clouds forming to the NW of the system, indicating strong NW jet streams.
As explained yesterday, Vagaries moves the SWM into coastal Karnataka, South interior Karnataka and T.N.
I encourage you to click here and check out our partner blog for great India and Sub-Continental weather....
WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?
Arabian Sea Cyclone Threat
Jim Andrews, International Expert, AccuWeather
Staying Mostly HOT And Dry, Plus Tropics
Frank Strait, AccuWeather
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 106 degrees at Pecos, TX
LOW: 22 degrees at Daggatt Pass, NV
TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE
HIGH: 78 degrees (25.4C) at Aberdeen Dyce (Aberdeenshire)
LOW: 43 degrees (6.2C) at Cavendish
TODAY'S GLOBAL EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE
HIGHEST
48C (118F) at Al Hufuf, Saudi Arabia (Asia)
45C (113F) at Kiffa, Mauritinia (Africa)
43C (109F) at Doha, Qatar (Asia)
41C (106F) at Hermosillo, Mexico (North America)
LOWEST
-74C (-101F) at Vostok Station, Antarctica
-30C (-22F) at Summit Camp, Greenland
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 65 degrees
LOW: 52 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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