Sunday, June 5, 2011

5 June, 2011

TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Arizona Battles Wallow Fire, Third-Largest in State History


Arizona wildfire burns cabins, forces evacuations
CBS NEWS

Wallow Fire at 144,000 acres; high winds expected

AZ CENTRAL

13 injured when bounce ride blows away
NEWS DAY



TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan

Weather looks set to go downhill for much of Western Europe this week!

Tuesday and Wednesday looks 'Wet & Windy' across Scotland

Upper level map for Tuesday

Surface map for Wednesday

For the next full week ahead Scotland looks unsettled and changable with the arrival of rain and blustery conditions by late tonight into Monday, increasing Tuesday through Wednesday. It's all thanks to the arrival of an Atlantic low which looks set to bring windy conditions to northern, central England and a cooldown for London and the south.

I do expect by early Tuesday through Wednesday that very windy conditions will impact much of Scotland with gales over high ground and the west coast, however gales may even affect the rest of the country by the way models are interpretiung this low as it crosses Scotland. Bands of heavy rains may add to the misery as they pile in from the west.

The large and deepening trough (cold pool aloft) will cover an expansive area of western Europe by midweek bringing a marked cooldown to many areas that have been baking of late.

Unfortunately, the unsettled pattern looks set to hold across much of the UK throughout next week. It will be sunny at times but cloudiness and showers as well as blustery conditions are never far away.

I believe the next 7 days shows an unsettled pattern and at some point around the 15th, we may see that Azores high try to nudge back towards Scotland. This would indicate more settled, sunny and warmer weather...

TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan

100º in New Orleans yesterday, Houston today? Ridge of High Pressure squashed over North!


The very hot, sweltering conditions today will be just as powerful across the Southern States as it has been of late with widespread 90s and in spots 100s. While New Orleans, Louisiana scorched at 100 degrees yesterday, making it only the 4th time in 10 years there, Houston may well top the century mark today beneath brilliantly clear skies and an oppressive June sun. It's got a lot to do with the arid ground we're seeing across the reion that is pumping up an already strong semi-permanent ridge. A slightly higher thunderstorm chance will ease or trim the potential for another 100 degree day in New Orleans but it's going to still reach at least the mid-90s and feel real hot.

Heat cut for Ohio Valley & Great Lakes, Potential for Severe Weather


A storm system pushing across Southern Canada and it's associated cold front has eased the heat further north, weakening and pushing the upper level ridge further south. This means that instead of 90s as we saw yesterday across Chicago, it's more likely to only be in the 70s today there and it will only reach the upper 80s compared to upper 90s across downstate Illinois. Showers and thunderstorms will create problems this afternoon across the Ohio Valley as the front sits over the region.

WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan

The Drought is harnessing intense heat across South!
Houston, Texas topped 105º this afternoon, hottest June day on record...



My first ever visit to the United States was to Houston back in July 1998 during a record-breaking and killer heatwave. It was one of those drought years which almost always brings record heat along with it. 2011 is another one of those years with such exceptionally dry conditions. Given this region's location and the fact that a semi-permanent high pressure ridge 'naturally' builds at this latitude, conditions and the heat will continue and will likely even get worse.

The problem Houston as well as a large portion of Texas faces is that once drought conditions set it, unless we see a tropical system, the locked in cycle grows worse as the summer season matures.

The feedback from soil to atmosphere has already reached critical point as we're already seeing scorching surface temperatures. Just a couple of years ago, Houston saw it's earlyiest 100 in the year. Now Houston beats that in 2011. The arid ground is feeding back to stronger high pressure and the stonger that high is, the hotter it can get. Although that lack of moisture is allowing the sun to put all it's effort into heating the ground, rather than share it's energy with evaporation, nights aren't outstanding warm like you'd expect with such warm daytime maximums. The relatively dry night air is allowing lows to fall to around 70 degrees which is fairly cool for this time of year, for these kinds of daytime highs and for Houston being so close to the Gulf.

I will never forget my visit to Houston during the heat wave of July 1998. Cracks were in the soils 6 inches wide and day after day saw the thermometer rise to 100 degrees. You could see the air shimmer, it felt like the pupples in my eyes where burning.

This could be another summer of 1998 given the pattern and the fact there is such extreme drought.

WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?

Storms In the Southeast, Heat Elsewhere, Caribbean Critter
Frank Strait, AccuWeather

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 108 degrees at Eloy, AZ
LOW: 21 degrees at West Yellowstone, MT

TODAY'S GLOBAL EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE

HIGHEST

46C (115F) at Bilma, Niger (Africa)
45C (113F) at Buraydah, Saudi Arabia (Asia)
42C (108F) at Aswan, Eqypt (Africa)
41C (106F) Muscat, Oman (Asia)

LOWEST

-69C (-92F) at SE Interior Antarctica
-27C (-17F) at Summit Camp, Greenland

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 56 degrees
LOW: 44 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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