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TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
The 2011 Hurricane Season and Meteorological Summer Starts Here!
Hot, dry spring 2011 sets records
BBC WEATHER
Cuba battles against worsening drought
BBC WEATHER
Barbecue Britain: Forecasters say it is set to sizzle ALL June (which is good news for those off to Glastonbury and Wimbledon)
DAILY MAIL
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan
Heat starts across Scotland tomorrow with places reaching 21-24C. Sharp drop in temp across Germany and western Poland which allows Scotland to heat up
As I write this at 11.50pm, temperatures are holding above 11C and may well the rest of the overnight hours hold there before cloud gives way to sunshine by late morning or early afternoon tomorrow, building temperatures across southern and central Scotland towards 20C. I do expect highs peaking at around 21C for many Central Lowland towns and cities by 4 or 5pm as the high pressure system is now progressing into Scotland from the southwest through tonight and will continue to dominate the country throughout tomorrow and firmly establishing itself by Friday.
When looking outside tonight, you certainly wouldn't think that we were in for 48 hours of real summer warmth would you? That damp, rainy, heavily overcast sky with temperatures holding at 12 or 13C.
The troughs southward movement and position now over central Europe, allows the ridge building across Scotland. Eastern areas of the country tomorrow should see the warmest reading of 22 to 24C but by Friday once this system sits directly above us. A larger area of 24C should encompass Scotland including Dumfries, Glasgow, Perth, Dundee, Aberdeen and Inverness with some spots topping 25 or 26C. Aviemore in the central Highlands may be one of those lucky spots.
As for England, well tomorrow should see 25 or 26C around Greater London and Friday may well see 27 or 28C.
I will say that I am extremely pleased on my early predictions which did state a potential for 26C or 'upper 20s C' across Scotland around Thursday or Friday of this week. That was said prior to any other source and it was put out there way back at the start of LAST WEEKEND, so not a bad prediction if I may say so myself.
This afternoon's Europe Video Blog
Much cooler across portions of Spain, France, throughout Germany into western Poland
Today was a cool, cloudy day for a large region stretching from France to Poland with even sections of Spain struggling to get above 15 or 16C today. After a toasty 32C or 90 degrees yesterday in Berlin, Germany, it was only 17C and cloudy by 12pm this afternoon and this was the script over western Poland where temps by 12 noon was only 14 to 17C today afternoon low 30s C yesterday. However, eastern Poland stretching into western Russia was enduring the same heat they've been enjoying in recent days as the high that was parked over Germany yesterday was shunted towards Russia and up through eastern Scandinavia and thus the heat held strong here with 29C in eastern Poland to 30C in Volgalgrad, Russia by early afternoon today beneath brilliant sunny skies.
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan
Another hot one for East, hotter in Southeast but severe storms brew for Mid-Atlantic, Northeast
As you can see from the current temperatures over the East this afternoon (below), it's another hot, humid day with plenty of mid-90s showing up from Washington up into Baltimore and Philadelphia. It's gotten even hotter today than of late across the interior Southeastern states. Notice the mid to upper 90s with even a chance of some 100s showing up. As the storm system treks up over southern Canada and pushes down on the strong upper level ridge which has produced all this heat, this will force cooling over the Lakes and into the Northeast, but pressures will actually be pumped up over the Southeast in reaction to a weakening of the high on it's north flank. Like we're seeing this afternoon with hotter surface temperatures throughout the South, this heat will continue to be as intense in the coming days with a trough dipping into New England and highs drop into the 60s rather than 80s across New England, 70s rather than 80s around NYC and 80s rather than 90s for Philly south to DC.
Unfortunately, all this hot, humid weather must come at a price and this afternoon and into tonight, it comes with thunderstorms which will likely turn severe producing large hail, damaging winds and torrential rains. The tornado risk is low but there is always that chance.
Atlantic Disturbance Crossing Florida Today
WEATHER TALK AFRICA, MID-EAST & ASIA By Mark Vogan
HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR OVER MIDDLE EAST
Abdali, Kuwait takes blistering crown with 124F (51C) for world's hottest of the Year
It's evident when looking at today's highs across the Middle East that pressures are on the rise with the upper level temperatures climbing. As pressures skyrocket over a desert or anywhere for that matter, it raises the height in the atmosphere in which the air can sink, compress and warm up. The sheer lack of moisture in the atmosphere means all of the strong June solar rays going directly into heating the ground and air rather than for evaporation.
It appeared to be a slow start to the hot season with isolated showers and relatively low 'heights' which meant 80s or 90s rather than 100s for many spots inluding Baghdad well into May. However, things have changed and high pressure over the past few days had been building over the region and today it was down right sweltering. Several locales including Iraq and Kuwait topped the 120-degree mark or 49C for the first tikme this year and this should continue tomorrow and the next few as high pressures is mighty strong as you would certainly expect over this arid region in summer.Today's Highs across across Iraq and Kuwait
KUWAIT
Abdali 124 degrees
Kuwait City 120 degrees
IRAQ
Najaf 121 degrees
Al Basrah 120 degrees
Baghdad 118 degrees
WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan
UK Spring Extremes
PRECIPITATION EXTREMES
NW Highlands of Scotland for Spring (past 3 months) recorded 427mm or well over 12 inches of rain.
In East Anglia (southeast England), the past 3 months have only picked up 28mm or just over an inch of rain which breaks the old dry record by over half.
Due to a La Nina hangover from winter, we appear to continue on a streak of 'extreme' weather in a typically non-extreme region.
The abnormalities of precipitation from record rains in November 2009 to the Lake District and UK drought of spring and early summer 2010. Now it's exceptional dryness over the southeast of Britain but that's not the case over the northwest with much of western Scotland enduring plenty of rains over the past month.
Even in Scotland however, March and April were abnormally dry with large wildfires burning and the worst in all of the UK appeared to be over the NW Highland region, the exact place now seeing plenty of soaking rainfall.
RECENT WINTERS HAVE GOTTEN COLDER, BUT WHY?
Personally I put this down to changes in our climate caused by 'cooling' and not by warming. The Pacific is seeing an increase in strong La Nina episodes thanks to the return to a cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation but for me, and perhaps even more applicable to our region of the world.
The increase in volcanic activity in the 'high latitudes' (towards the Pole) is perhaps directly linked to our more 'extreme' weather or 'short term climate', I'm talking the past 3-4 years. High latitude volcanic activity has been known to increase 'blocking' of the upper levels of the atmosphere over the polar region and mid-latitudes. The past 2 winters and arguably 3 if one includes the 2008-09 winter have become severe by UK standards. Strong distributuon of Arctic air south (negative Arctic Oscillation) and a strong negative North Atlantic Oscillation have been dominant, forcing warm air north up over Greenland via high pressure and thus forcing Arctic air south on either side, one vortex into UK and western Europe and the other down over eastern Canada and the USA.
Low solar activity may also be playing a significant role.
These increasingly cold winter come with often sunnier conditions thanks to the presence of Arctic high pressure, meaning a drier winter and often spring. More extreme weather in one season often leads into the next and that's what we're seeing.
As for the current pattern, southeast England is in drought conditions but thw worst is across the Channel and over northern and central France. This is leading to stronger high pressure and thus warmer conditions which only make matters worse as the warmer the temperature, the faster soils dry out. That process continuing makes it harder and harder for the upper pattern to break down and what we've seen is southbound rain-bearing cold fronts falling appart or bouncing off this high which is too strong over France and extending into southeastern Britain.
WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?
Australia Autumn Coolest in over 60 Years
Jim Andrews, International Expert, AccuWeather
Summer, Hurricane Season Under Way
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (May 31-June 4th)
Pakistan Weather Portal
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE CYCLONE OR A STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN ARABIAN SEA
METD WEATHER
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 105 degrees at Safford, AZ
LOW: N/A
TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE
HIGH: 72 degrees (22.4C) at East Malling (Kent)
LOW: 32 degrees (0.2C) at Santon Downham (Suffolk)
TODAY'S GLOBAL EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE
HIGHEST
51C (124F) at Abdali, Kuwait (Asia)
49.5C (121F) at Najaf, Iraq (Asia)
49C (120F) at Al Basrah, Iraq (Asia)
48C (118F) at Baghdad, Iraq (Asia)
LOWEST
-72C (-98F) at Vostok Station, Antarctica
-31C (-24F) at Summit Camp, Greenland
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 56 degrees
LOW: 51 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
The 2011 Hurricane Season and Meteorological Summer Starts Here!
Hot, dry spring 2011 sets records
BBC WEATHER
Cuba battles against worsening drought
BBC WEATHER
Barbecue Britain: Forecasters say it is set to sizzle ALL June (which is good news for those off to Glastonbury and Wimbledon)
DAILY MAIL
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan
Heat starts across Scotland tomorrow with places reaching 21-24C. Sharp drop in temp across Germany and western Poland which allows Scotland to heat up
Tomorrow's upper pattern from the European model
When looking outside tonight, you certainly wouldn't think that we were in for 48 hours of real summer warmth would you? That damp, rainy, heavily overcast sky with temperatures holding at 12 or 13C.
The troughs southward movement and position now over central Europe, allows the ridge building across Scotland. Eastern areas of the country tomorrow should see the warmest reading of 22 to 24C but by Friday once this system sits directly above us. A larger area of 24C should encompass Scotland including Dumfries, Glasgow, Perth, Dundee, Aberdeen and Inverness with some spots topping 25 or 26C. Aviemore in the central Highlands may be one of those lucky spots.
As for England, well tomorrow should see 25 or 26C around Greater London and Friday may well see 27 or 28C.
I will say that I am extremely pleased on my early predictions which did state a potential for 26C or 'upper 20s C' across Scotland around Thursday or Friday of this week. That was said prior to any other source and it was put out there way back at the start of LAST WEEKEND, so not a bad prediction if I may say so myself.
This afternoon's Europe Video Blog
Much cooler across portions of Spain, France, throughout Germany into western Poland
Today was a cool, cloudy day for a large region stretching from France to Poland with even sections of Spain struggling to get above 15 or 16C today. After a toasty 32C or 90 degrees yesterday in Berlin, Germany, it was only 17C and cloudy by 12pm this afternoon and this was the script over western Poland where temps by 12 noon was only 14 to 17C today afternoon low 30s C yesterday. However, eastern Poland stretching into western Russia was enduring the same heat they've been enjoying in recent days as the high that was parked over Germany yesterday was shunted towards Russia and up through eastern Scandinavia and thus the heat held strong here with 29C in eastern Poland to 30C in Volgalgrad, Russia by early afternoon today beneath brilliant sunny skies.
Today's High across Europe
(Courtesy of the University of Cologne)
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan
Another hot one for East, hotter in Southeast but severe storms brew for Mid-Atlantic, Northeast
As you can see from the current temperatures over the East this afternoon (below), it's another hot, humid day with plenty of mid-90s showing up from Washington up into Baltimore and Philadelphia. It's gotten even hotter today than of late across the interior Southeastern states. Notice the mid to upper 90s with even a chance of some 100s showing up. As the storm system treks up over southern Canada and pushes down on the strong upper level ridge which has produced all this heat, this will force cooling over the Lakes and into the Northeast, but pressures will actually be pumped up over the Southeast in reaction to a weakening of the high on it's north flank. Like we're seeing this afternoon with hotter surface temperatures throughout the South, this heat will continue to be as intense in the coming days with a trough dipping into New England and highs drop into the 60s rather than 80s across New England, 70s rather than 80s around NYC and 80s rather than 90s for Philly south to DC.
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast including the Big Cities at high risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon
Unfortunately, all this hot, humid weather must come at a price and this afternoon and into tonight, it comes with thunderstorms which will likely turn severe producing large hail, damaging winds and torrential rains. The tornado risk is low but there is always that chance.
As the front sweeps east towards the Atlantic Coast, this is pushing into some exceptionally steamy air which will force thunderstorms to rapidly intensify. Multiple severe thunderstorm warnings as well as tornado watches have been posted across areas of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Upstate New York and these will likely be extended into other areas including further south into the Baltimore and DC areas tonight. The map below shows the area that is highest risk for severe thunderstorms through today.
Atlantic Disturbance Crossing Florida Today
WEATHER TALK AFRICA, MID-EAST & ASIA By Mark Vogan
HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR OVER MIDDLE EAST
Abdali, Kuwait takes blistering crown with 124F (51C) for world's hottest of the Year
It's evident when looking at today's highs across the Middle East that pressures are on the rise with the upper level temperatures climbing. As pressures skyrocket over a desert or anywhere for that matter, it raises the height in the atmosphere in which the air can sink, compress and warm up. The sheer lack of moisture in the atmosphere means all of the strong June solar rays going directly into heating the ground and air rather than for evaporation.
It appeared to be a slow start to the hot season with isolated showers and relatively low 'heights' which meant 80s or 90s rather than 100s for many spots inluding Baghdad well into May. However, things have changed and high pressure over the past few days had been building over the region and today it was down right sweltering. Several locales including Iraq and Kuwait topped the 120-degree mark or 49C for the first tikme this year and this should continue tomorrow and the next few as high pressures is mighty strong as you would certainly expect over this arid region in summer.Today's Highs across across Iraq and Kuwait
KUWAIT
Abdali 124 degrees
Kuwait City 120 degrees
IRAQ
Najaf 121 degrees
Al Basrah 120 degrees
Baghdad 118 degrees
WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan
UK Spring Extremes
Image Courtesy of the Met Office
PRECIPITATION EXTREMES
NW Highlands of Scotland for Spring (past 3 months) recorded 427mm or well over 12 inches of rain.
In East Anglia (southeast England), the past 3 months have only picked up 28mm or just over an inch of rain which breaks the old dry record by over half.
Due to a La Nina hangover from winter, we appear to continue on a streak of 'extreme' weather in a typically non-extreme region.
The abnormalities of precipitation from record rains in November 2009 to the Lake District and UK drought of spring and early summer 2010. Now it's exceptional dryness over the southeast of Britain but that's not the case over the northwest with much of western Scotland enduring plenty of rains over the past month.
Even in Scotland however, March and April were abnormally dry with large wildfires burning and the worst in all of the UK appeared to be over the NW Highland region, the exact place now seeing plenty of soaking rainfall.
RECENT WINTERS HAVE GOTTEN COLDER, BUT WHY?
Personally I put this down to changes in our climate caused by 'cooling' and not by warming. The Pacific is seeing an increase in strong La Nina episodes thanks to the return to a cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation but for me, and perhaps even more applicable to our region of the world.
The increase in volcanic activity in the 'high latitudes' (towards the Pole) is perhaps directly linked to our more 'extreme' weather or 'short term climate', I'm talking the past 3-4 years. High latitude volcanic activity has been known to increase 'blocking' of the upper levels of the atmosphere over the polar region and mid-latitudes. The past 2 winters and arguably 3 if one includes the 2008-09 winter have become severe by UK standards. Strong distributuon of Arctic air south (negative Arctic Oscillation) and a strong negative North Atlantic Oscillation have been dominant, forcing warm air north up over Greenland via high pressure and thus forcing Arctic air south on either side, one vortex into UK and western Europe and the other down over eastern Canada and the USA.
Low solar activity may also be playing a significant role.
These increasingly cold winter come with often sunnier conditions thanks to the presence of Arctic high pressure, meaning a drier winter and often spring. More extreme weather in one season often leads into the next and that's what we're seeing.
As for the current pattern, southeast England is in drought conditions but thw worst is across the Channel and over northern and central France. This is leading to stronger high pressure and thus warmer conditions which only make matters worse as the warmer the temperature, the faster soils dry out. That process continuing makes it harder and harder for the upper pattern to break down and what we've seen is southbound rain-bearing cold fronts falling appart or bouncing off this high which is too strong over France and extending into southeastern Britain.
WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?
Australia Autumn Coolest in over 60 Years
Jim Andrews, International Expert, AccuWeather
Summer, Hurricane Season Under Way
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
Pakistan Weather Update & Monsoon Alert (May 31-June 4th)
Pakistan Weather Portal
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE CYCLONE OR A STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN ARABIAN SEA
METD WEATHER
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 105 degrees at Safford, AZ
LOW: N/A
TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE
HIGH: 72 degrees (22.4C) at East Malling (Kent)
LOW: 32 degrees (0.2C) at Santon Downham (Suffolk)
TODAY'S GLOBAL EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE
HIGHEST
51C (124F) at Abdali, Kuwait (Asia)
49.5C (121F) at Najaf, Iraq (Asia)
49C (120F) at Al Basrah, Iraq (Asia)
48C (118F) at Baghdad, Iraq (Asia)
LOWEST
-72C (-98F) at Vostok Station, Antarctica
-31C (-24F) at Summit Camp, Greenland
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 56 degrees
LOW: 51 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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