Tuesday, July 27, 2010

27 July, 2010

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Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

GRAPHIC COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER.COM

Smog from forest and peat bog fires rolls through Moscow yesterday
Image Courtesy of the Independent Newspaper

new york, u.s.a
First Tornado in 36 Years Hits Bronx
AccuWeather News

australia, australasia
Darwin has hottest July night on record
BBC Weather

australia, australasia
Hot, but don't put doonas away yet
Northern Territories News

russia, europe
Moscow has hottest day on record
BBC Weather

Hottest Month in at Least 130 Years
Jim Andrews, International Expert, AccuWeather

dc, u.s.a
Hundreds of Thousands without Power around DC
The Weather Channel
 
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
 
northern plains
DANGEROUS WEATHER ALERT: as today will become hot, very humid and as this air broils a cold front will charge southeastwards and slam against mid-90 degree air across central and southern Minnesota by late this afternoon. It's very a very storm morning across particularly North Dakota with the Fargo area receiving nasty, bow echo thunderstorms this morning and these lines of storms have progressed across northern Minnesota. Lines will die away whilst new ones will form behind old, dying ones. That will be the case more for areas north of Minneapolis, though late morning storms may effect far northern suburbs. It's going to be between 3-4pm onwards that the risk is there for Minneapolis into southern Minnesota as well as Wisconsin, where the heating will continue to build whilst dew points push 75 degrees. This will set the stage for a major fuel injector for SE bound storms that may turn severe once they enter the Great Minneapolis-St Paul Metropolitan area. As for the rest of the N. Plains and into the Lower Midwest, storms will also effect areas further south across Kansas City to St Louis with juicy, hot air. Highs will likely push 94 in both urban centers. As for Chicago, you will likely enjoy sunny skies and no storm threat today, calling for a high around 92. The Dakotas will see highs push 90, whilst Fargo will be slightly cooler, perhaps 88 after those morning storms and wet ground. Minneapolis may top 95 degrees today if the storms don't arrive too early. Dew Points may actually push the UPPER 70s for a time! It's already 72 degrees for the DP in MSP. Lows tonight will only drop to the low to mid-70s for Minnesota down through Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa into Missouri.
WITH TODAY'S STORMS, DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL, LIGHTENING AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO IS THE THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.
southern plains
An upper-low continues to draw Gulf moisture onshore along the Louisiana and upper Texas coast, therefore allowing the development of showers and thunderstorms anywhere from Corpus Christi along the Mid-Texas coast all the way to Lake Charles, Louisiana, this will hold highs to near only the mid-80s with Houston likely going for a high of only 87 degrees as earlier showers or, more likely, the development of a thunderstorm will shut off the daytime heating process early. This will actually be the case across most of Texas where storms are possible and even up across Dallas, highs are going to be limited to around 90-91 degrees, out to the west, more sun but again, highs will be cooler than normal with only an 88 at Lubbock and even El Paso may fail to reach 90 degrees this afternoon, but it will be sunny. Where it will be hotter will be north of Dallas towards Oklahoma City where highs should push the mid to upper 90s today but even there, with all the juicy, tropical low to mid 70 degrees dew points, storms are possible to blow up. Lows tonight should drop back to the low and mid-70s. 
northwest
Another glorious and sunny day from the I-5 urban corridor from Seattle down to Portland with highs pushing into the 80s, calling for a high around 83 in Seattle, 88 in Portland and a refreshing 60s but with cloud and fog lingering all day along the coast. Over the mountains there is a chance of some showers and thunderstorms popping up in the heat of the day as a flow pushes up from the south, this is courtesy of the monsoonal flow moving all the way from Arizona and the four corners. To the east of the mountains it will, like to the west over Seattle and Portland, it's going to be sunny but like it has been, darn hot with 90s widespread with areas, especially over the eastern side of WA and OR temps will enter the 100s. 
Tonight lows drop to the 50s from the beaches to cities, 30s and 40s for the mtns and 60s to the east.  
southwest
The monsoonal flow will continue to collide with daytime heating which in turn will fire mountains thunderstorms today throughout much of the Rocky Mountain states and across the Four Corners. High pressure over the Great Basin, continues to draw the tropical moisture north from the warm waters of the Baja. Many valley areas including Phoenix and Las Vegas will likely see mostly sunshine with perhaps only isolated showers and thunderstorms crossing into the valleys, it's more likely any storms that do get going as the thermals stir culus into towering cumulonimbus will be restricted to the higher elevations, leaving low elevations dry, sunny and with temps generally in the upper 90s to low 100s. The high has in fact weakened, keeping highs to 103 to 104 for Vegas and Phoenix as well as other known hot spots such as Palm Springs, Barstow and Baker. As for Los Angeles, highs may struggle to reach 73 with morning clouds and fog slow to burn and peel back to the Pacific, a 5-15 mph NW wind may also help keep temps down by this afternoon. Areas along the coast may find themselves cloudy and fogbound for a good portion of the day with highs only in the mid-60s all the way north to the Oregon border. Even Downtown San Francisco will likely stay in the upper 60s! Lows tonight in the 50s from beaches to downtown LA and San Francisco. Inland low 60s to 70s in the deserts.
southeast & florida
HOT, STORMY, STEAMY will be the three words to describe the Southeast weather map today with highs pushing the 90-degree mark in most places with isolated thunderstorms likely to blossom pretty much anywhere. Some spots will however see mostly sunny skies with a miss in thunderstorms but on the downside of this, those missing the storms likely likely see higher temperatures and combine with high dew points in the mid-70s, it's going to feel above 100 degrees again... Though there will still be a storm threat across Florida, more so for central and northern Florida, drier air is pushing in from the west and this will help reduce storm chances a little from normal and also help rise highs to the mid to even upper 90s fror north Fla, to low 90s for south Fla. Atlanta shoudl see a 30-40% chance of an afternoon storm with a high around 92, low tonight 77, New Orleans 89, Low 80, Charlotte 88, low 75, Jacksonville 97, Low 80, Orlando 94, Low 75, Miami 91, Low 81. 
northeast & mid-atlantic
Unfortunately the heavenly 80s of yesterday as far south as DC with magical dew points in the very comfortable 50s is gone as sunshine will rule, dew points will creep back to the 60s and highs today will creep back into the low 90s from Washington DC to New York with even Boston warming up towards 88. Tonight instead of downtown lows in the 60s for Philly and DC it's back to lows in the 70s with a stickier feel once again to the air.
 
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
 

Powerful Thunderstorms Aim for Minneapolis to Detroit-Chicago
AccuWeather

Soaking, Locally Severe Storms Rattle the South
AccuWeather

Twin Cities Threatened by Severe Storms, Tornadoes Again
AccuWeather

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

High Heat and Humidity to fuel Severe Thunderstorms into Metro Minneapolis this PM and Evening.



The dew point in Minneapolis is now up to a steamy 73 degrees whilst La Crosse is 76 degrees, combine this with current air temperatures of 90 degrees and rising, perhaps to 95 degrees, this makes for current realfeels of 97-100 degrees, likely rising to 105 degrees by the peak heat of the afternoon. All this will allow for perfect high octane fuel for a cold front which currently is over North Dakota and NW Minnesota heading SE late afternoon just in time for the cold front to maximum it's thunderstorm potential energy as the air will become exceptionally boyant as air in the mid-90s and high moisture will allowing radily surface convergence ahead of the front and these storms that fire are likely to rotate as the southerly surface flow and the NW flow aloft will rotate these storms into supercells. Let's hope a dangerous supercell does not form over Minneapolis or there will likely be damaging winds of 70+ mph, hail, some large and perhaps damaging, torrential 1-2 inch per hour rains, wild lightening and of course there's always that tornado risk!

Moscow's All-Time record 99-degree high thanks to the Trough and Cooldown over Western Europe

Several factors have come to play in the Russian heat wave which has seen Moscow, home to some 14 million people record it's hottest ever day in recorded history. It's all thanks to 3 major weather players. 1) An incredibly dry spring and early summer throughout western Russia, the intensity of the High pressure that dominated central and Western Europe for the past month and finally the influence brought by the NE Atlantic trough, it's depth and strength in forcing an unusually strong and large high pressure cell to the east and the powerful southerly wind which the trough and high interaction created transported hot air unusually far north and directly into Moscow. High's if 95 to 98 degrees were enhanced to the magic 99-degree high as the trough nudged slightly further east, aligning surface winds and the hot air directly into the path of the Russia capital. 

CHECK OUT THIS LATEST BLOG POST FROM ACCUWEATHER'S JIM ANDREWS
Hottest Month in at Least 130 Years

Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Extraordinary Desert Rain !!

And the Rains continue to lash Gujarat !

Sure, I did mention yesterday that there is 1 more day of rains there, but least imagined it would be with such vigour !

Kutch and Jamnagar districts bore the brunt.

Heaviest amonst the Gujarat rains as on Tuesday morning ( 24 hrs) were:

Kutch : Abdasa:103 mms, Anjar: 190 mms, Bhachau: 173 mms, Bhuj: 73 mms, Gandhidham: 100 mms,

Mandvi*: 449 mms, Mundra:116 mms,Nakhatrana: 95 mms, Rapar:104 mms

* Mandvi we discussed yesterday had recieved 124 % of its seasonal rain. But with another whopping 449mms, its got more than 250 %, with all the season's rain in a day yesterday !!

These are phenomenal for a day's rain. C'mon, this is desert territory, not a coastal region.

Kutch, has by now measured 97 % of its season's rain till Tuesday morning.

And another rain battered region,Jamnagar:

The 24 hrs rainfall as on Tuesday morning:

Jamnagar city: 466 mms,Jodia: 212 mms, Khambhalia:208 mms,Lalpur:164 mms,Kalyanpur:155 mms and Dwarka :97 mms

This district has by Tuesday recieved 97% of its season's rainfall !

Now, with Mumbai Colaba having reached its season's total, it can afford to adhere to our estimate of 2/3 days of "rest period". Required for "cleaning up" and restoring roads !

Today (Tuesday) morning, the Colaba rains for this season totalled 1923 mms. And the season's normal quota till Setember end is 1920 mms.

So, all in excess now ! I'm not talking about the lakes, mind well !
 
Read our partner's blog in full HERE!
 
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
 
Monsoon Alert
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather

Tornado in The Bronx!
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

The 30C parade continues
The Valley Weather (Montreal, Quebec)

Heat Advisory - Small Tornado Threat Later (and why so many Russians are jumping into fountains)
Paul Douglas Weather Column, WeatherNation

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 119 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 34 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA

Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

High: 79 degrees at Heathrow (Greater London)
Low: 47 degrees at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire)

Today's Extremes here at my house

High: 66 degrees
Low: 57 degrees

TODAY'S COND
Generally overcast, cool with a few light showers. A few bright spells at times.


Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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