..TROPICS HEATING UP?..
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Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
COULD SUMMER OF 2010 BE HOTTEST ON RECORD FOR EASTERN USA?
TWO HISTORIC MID-ATLANTIC HEATWAVES IN JULY ALONE?
GRAPHIC COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER.COM
EARLY JULY 2010 HEATWAVE: Baltimore, Maryland topped 105 degrees, hottest there in 27 years, Newark, New Jersey matched it's longest streak of 100 degree days with 4 days, Philadelphia, Pennsylavania and Central Park in central Manhattan, New York both touched a high of 103 degrees, both cities did not see a single 100-degree day since August 9, 2001...
LATE JULY 2010 HEATWAVE 2: Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather believes a record tying 107-degree high at Richmond, Virginia is possible on Saturday along with yet another 100 degree highs as far north of Philadelphia and Newark... New York City's Central Park, again?
By Mark Vogan
July 2010 Mid-Atlantic Heat Wave, No. 2
Hottest Weather of the Summer Saturday from New York City to Raleigh
AccuWeather News
More Cattle at Risk as Temperatures Climb in Kansas
AccuWeather News
Exploding Thunderstorm Caused United 967 to Hit Severe Turbulence
AccuWeather News
A WET NORTHERN HALF OF BRITAIN
Heavy rain causes flash flooding on Teesside
BBC Weather
Torrential rain causes floods across Merseyside
BBC Weather
Parts of Cumbria sees one month's rain in two days
BBC Weather
Western Europe Heat gets turned down as next trough pushes in off the N. Atlantic
-By Mark Vogan
After yesterdays highs of 97 in Madrid, 90 in Paris, 89 at Rotterdam, 85 in London, today will be trimmed some 5 to 10 degrees and by Friday through Saturday, NW areas, particularly London to Paris and up to Rotterdam and Amsterdam will see temps plunge perhaps by as much as 20 or more degrees off yesterdays warm readings, replacing the blazing sun with cooler air and showery conditions in spots. All thanks to the push of a fairly deep trough that's stubbornly brought a dissapointing mid-summer period for Scotland with constant shower activity, breezy conditions and cool highs in the low to mid-60s! This very trough has pushed southeastward and will remove the abnormal warmth covering the western half of continental Europe with London and south-central England being really the only portion of mainland Britain that's enjoying the true contiental style summer places from Antwerpen, Belgium, Amsterdam, the Netherlands all the way to Moscow, Russia and south to Berlin, Germany are enjoying. It's the year of extremes in this region of the world which indeed endured a fierce winter for record cold and snow, now it's the opposite with record or near record heat and in spots, drought conditions due to persistent and stubborn high pressure.
According to the ECMWF model, the trough will dip well south, covering all of the UK, bringing particularly low heights to northern Scotland and even bringing a refreshing batch of cool, northern air as far south and northern and even central Spain.
MARK VOGAN'S TROUGH TIMELINE AND INFLUENCE ON CITY HIGHS....
The trough will be deepest and influence farthest south Friday and Saturday bringing highs only of only 73 &74 Fri and Sat to Heathrow, London (SE. England), 73 both Fri and Sat with heavy showers to Paris (France) 66 and 68 with heavy showers in Rotterdam, (Holland) and in Madrid, Friday is likely to only reach 88 and 91 on Saturday. A high will rebuild back into W. Europe from the Atlantic by Wed-Thurs-Fri next week, bringing the hottest air likely first to Spain, 100-105 for Madrid, perhaps eventually pumping 90s to London for the first time in 2010, mid-90s from Paris up to Rotterdam? We shalk seem, certainly for Scotland, it's touch and go whether we see true warmth, we may see near 80 by mid to late next week, but then again that trough and bias towards lower pressure heights this far north always makes it tougher to call whether the warmth can make it this far north..... I still believe a warm, drier August is in store of Scotland and a downright HOT August is waiting in the wings from London to Paris, all the way east to Berlin and Moscow!!
Notice the two graphics, the first with the trough and lower pressures over the UK and W as well as SW Europe, but by NEXT TUESDAY pressures rebuild with high pressure over Spain, France and even up towards Scotland....
It's worth keeping in mind that this model, like all others, chance day in and day out, so it's not going to be actually be like this next week but these runs of various models are what helps predict future weather and indeed some models are better than others at certain types of weather...
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
northeast & mid-atlantic
Hope you enjoyed those "refreshing 80s" and dew points in the "60s"! We'll the soupy, sweaty summer of 2010 is ready to ramp back up in the heat department over the next 2-4 days as the ridge rebuilds back over the East Coast and the return to 90s will hit today from the Carolinas to Norfolk to Philadelphia. Highs may fall just short of 90 for Trenton, Newark, Jersey City, NewYork City and most deffinately over the north of Manhattan on to Boston with perhaps a more plesant 84 there. Between Trenton and the Bronx, just north of Manhttan Island will top between 87-89, some spots like Newark may commence their new heatwave of the summer today and perhaps a nudge to 90 if showers and storms hold back a little, whilst Central Park commences tomorrow (remember a heat wave in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast constitutes 3-straight days of 90 or higher). One good thing about the upcoming mid to upper 90s, all the way to Hartford, CT and possible 100s for DC, Baltimore to Philadelphia, will be lower humidity thanks to the influx of drier air in the mid to upper levels, this "should" keep the "feel" of the heat down a little at least. Today will be a thundery day with the potential of showers and thunderstorms on the march coastward from the Ohio Valley to intensify into strong with even isolated severe storms anywhere from Richmond to Boston. Highest likihood of damaging winds, hail and wild lightening would be points between Richmond to Trenton where the air and dynamics are more favorable with a little warmer temps. Lows tonight should be as follows. Boston 69, New York 79, Philly 76, Baltimore 75, DC 77.
southeast & florida
THE HEAT BUILDS today from yesterday and will continue to do so over the next 2-3 days as the high builds over the Southeast and Florida. Ok, most places, with the exception of the Carolinas and perhaps the odd spotty storm along the Gulf Coast, it's going to be terrifc with lots of sunshine, however that sun will be strong and indeed, darn hot! However, for the heat-hardy residents of the Southeast, it shouldn't be too bad as you folks will be accustom to what is becoming a hot summer of 2010. Highs today are likely to top 90 in New Orleans, 95 up in Memphis, 96 in Montgomery, 95 in Atlanta, a spotty thunderstorm is likely to erupt over Metro Atlanta with the strong surface heating this afternoon reacting with upper -level energy associated with a frontal system to the north into the Carolinas. Central and southern Georgia all the way into north Florida will likely see perfect sunny skies and highs pushing the 100 degree mark from Columbus, GA to Tallahassee with even Orlando perhaps eyeing a 98-degree afternoon. The atmosphere is "capped" across much of the Southeast and Florida thanks to warmer air in the upper-levels as well as a push of dry air also, this supresses the normal PM thunderstorm development as a warmer mid to upper atmosphere will reduce the lapse rate from surface to upper levels, the lesser temperature contrast between the two means it's tougher for the atmosphere to produce clouds and even at that, even with puffy cumulus, there will be less lift into the higher, colder upper atmosphere. Tonights lows will be very warm throughout with 80 at New Orleans, 79 at Memphis, 77 at Atlantia, 76 at Charlotte, 80 at Tampa, 78 at Orlando and 82 down in Miami after a high there around 93 today.
southern plains
A generally hot day from Houston to Oklahoma City with highs perhaps restricted to around 89 at Houston all the way down the Teaxs coast thanks to afternoon thunderstorm development, elsewhere, north and away from the coast and it's mostly sunny and hot with highs topping 91 at San Antonio to a sweaty 97 at Dallas and although cooler, a beautifully sunny 90 at Lubbock. Lows tonight range from mid-70s across interior areas to near or at 80 for Gulf coastal areas.
southwest
A two-way fight will go on for residents Out West today as troughiness pupresses what has been a broiler-plate-ridge over the Great Basin of late, bringing some 6 days in a row over 110 in Las Vegas and persistently producing upper 90s to near 100 in the central Rockies location of Salt Lake. The other fight will be of monsoon moisture flowing north from the Baja, which has been the case over the last 5-days and has also been the reasoning for lower temps in Phoenix (often below 110) than 200 miles to the NW in Vegas which have been too far west for the monsoon hosepipe. As the trough digs down from the PNW, it will increase winds over S. Nev, bringing a blowtorch effect 107-degree high at Las Vegas, 109 at Phoenix but a small pocket in the heart of the Great Basin will allow a scorchign 101 up in Salt Lake with blustery conditions. That will make for an even more uncomfortable afternoon in this city as those winds blowing the 101 degree air around will make it tough to breathe. As for Palm Springs, highs will rise to a lower 105 whilst Death Valley perhaps falls shy of 120! Los Angeles will enjoy cooling afternoon breezes amid mostly sunny skies with a high reaching around 79 after a dull, dreary marine influence morning. Some beaches may struggle to see full sunshine and a high of 70 all the way from Downtown San Francisco. Lows range tonight from 50s along the ocean, around 60 across the LA basin, upper 60s for Inland Empire, 70s for the Mojave and low deserts. upper 80s (87-89) for the cities of Phoenix and Vegas.
northwest
High pressure once again beginning to build into the PNW coast and highs should eye 80 degrees today under sunny skies at Seattle and 86 in Portland. Comfortable 70s under beautiful sunshine will create stunning conditions for hicker and walkers enjoying perhaps some well-earned vacation time in the Cascades. East of the mountains and the air becomes decidedly hotter withs 90s and perhaps the odd 100 showing by 3-5pm this afternoon.
northern plains
Today will see showers and thunderstorms over the Dakotas in association with a frontal system that's drapped from NW North Dakota down into the Ohio Valley. east of say Fargo and down to Kansas City or St Louis, the whole area to the north and east inc Minneapolis, Madison, Chicago and across to Detroit will enjoy a mostly sunny and dry day with comfortably warm temperatures running generally into the upper 80s to around 90. I'm calling from Minneapolis to top around 88, Chicago 90, Detroit 87 whilst to the south where the frontal boundary will peristently ignite thunderstorms, temps will be 91 at Kansas City, 89 at St Louis. These two lower Midwest cities of course lie nearer to where the core of the heat is, therefore reasoning the warmer temps. Lows tonight range from the 50s and 60s in the Dakotas after a high only in the low to mid-80s. 60s to around 70 across Minnesota and mid to even upper 70s in and around the Chicagoland area on southbound.
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Severe Thunderstorms Hammer Northeast, Plains, Ohio Valley Wednesday Evening
AccuWeather
VIDEO: Tropical Development Still Possible
AccuWeather
Tropical Storm May Form and Impact Florida, Oil Spill Area
AccuWeather
Widespread Severe Weather from Northeast to High Plains
AccuWeather
What's Reaching Today's Blog?
Slow Start to Hurricane Season... Violent Storms Still Expected
The Northeast Quadrant
Potential Thursday Soaker (good news for the weekend)
Paul Douglas Weather Column, Weather Nation
Indian Monsoon at Mid Stream -- an Update
Jim Andrews, International Expert, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 118 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 28 degrees at West Yellowstone, MT
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 63 degrees
Low: 58 degrees
TODAY'S COND
A very wet day overall with periods of fine, drizzly rain and then pockets of torrential downpours, some of which were long-lasting, creating poor driving conditions on roadways and created standing surface water.
Areas of high ground also experience dense fog!
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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