Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
BREAKING NEWS
THE DETROIT NEWS: Mayor: Fires a 'natural disaster' that 'you can't plan for'
BREAKING NEWS
Tropical Storm Igor now on the playing field, a US worry 10-days down the road?? Hermine creating a Texas headache!
As Hermine continues to rain down on North Texas and Oklahoma bringing major flooding to Dallas and surrounding areas and even holds a well-defined core, still, all the way up along the Texas-Oklahoma border with even a part-eye still visible, the rains are going to get even greater as the moistm, south flow continues to feed this system from the Gulf.
As for Igor, a newly formed tropical storm and likely to continue on a westward track along the easterlies for the next 5-days at least before any turn or change is likely. In fact although there is a weakness in the ridge currently over the central Atlantic basin, this will change with time and model indications show a building westwards of the Azores high in which Igor is currently riding on the southern periphery at the moment, although dry air covers western areas of the basin, there is at least 10-days before this system gets into an area of concern, say between the Leewards and the Bahamas. The slow easterly flow over the ITCZ will have Igor still east of the Leeward Islands by day 5, so there's plenty of time to watch this new storm.
It appears as of this time, Igor is in a favorable environment for intensification, it's a well organised, closed low with low shear and waters over 80 degrees, also there is plenty of moist air around for the system to pull in and grow stronger. The hurricane center and models predict this storm to become a notable 100 mph hurricane by Saturday, and that friends would be different to what we've seen up until now as storms that have crossed the Atlantic basin from off Africa have struggled with either dry air, shear or a system out in front which has inhibited development. With no system to the west, in front of Igor and no system present and been churning up those waters for a while now, means it's likely we see Igor intensify better over the deep tropical Atlantic better than the rest of the systems.. I wouldn't be surprised if Igor becomes a category 3 storm over the central Atlantic by Saturday.
As for the troughs sweeping eastwards off North America and riding the westerlies, the question becomes, does the trough that cross the Atlantic west to east, be strong enough and drop far enough south to catch westbound Igor by late week or the weekend?
The pattern is changing and we are seeing the time of year when recurves are less easy as ridges tend to be slightly stronger, the weakness is less and even if Igor bombs out over the heart of the Atlantic and therefore one would think it will feel the upper-level steering flow and find a way out, remember, this is now the HEART OF THE SEASON, the mid-atlantic stronger and the overall feel and environment of the tropical atmosphere and ocean is different to what it was a month ago....
I do believe Ignor will find it's way into either the Leewards and take aim into the Caribbean as a dangerous hurricane or it will take a "small curve" northwards towards Florida or the Bahamas once near the Leeward Islands in about 10-days from now. Either way, this system like with others that will likely be on the table within 10-days looks more and more likely to threaten the US... Each and every new storm that does form over the next 30 days will have a greater chance at threatening the US coast!
Latest On Hermine
Hermine's Flooding Rain Spreads Northward
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
BLOG: San Antonio River Rose 7 Feet in an Hour
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
Latest on Igor
Igor Forms in the Atlantic
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
IN OTHER NEWS
Image Courtesy of The Detroit News
Mayor: Fires a 'natural disaster' that 'you can't plan for'
The Detroit News
Special Video
Future Shock... Brutal Winters ahead from 2013 on
Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather
Hundreds of thousands hit by Mexico flooding
BBC Weather
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Wind-Driven Firestorm Rages through Detroit
By Kirstie Hettinga, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
Drought Building in the Eastern U.S.
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Colorado Wildfires Still Bolstered by Low Humidity, Wind
By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
Winter Forecast coming up!
As you'll have noticed, winter has been something I haven't talked much about here, simply because my ideas continue to roam within my head as to how this winter will play out. As of October 31, my official UK and US forecast will be released and I think it will be one of surprises and high expectatuions.
By looking at the pattern, the evolution of La Nina and wonderment as to just how strong it will become, lies very interesting as to how our winter here in the UK and indeed across the US will play out. Like 2008-2009 I think we'll have a good winter and not a boring one like we saw in 2006-2007 unless you love warm and very stormy winters... It certainly was a great winter for lovers of strong winds, heavy rains and no cold, snow or ice...
My UK forecast for 2010-2011 will include detailed thoughts as to what the winter will hold for Scotland, England, Northern Ireland and Wales, whether we'll see a white Christmas and when will the cold spells hit and how cold it should be. Stay tuned!
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Hermine Will be a Flood Maker for Several Days
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
San Antonio River Rose 7 Feet in an Hour
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
Midweek Highlights for the Coming Period
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 105 degrees at Bullhead City, AZ
Low: 32 degrees at Deer Creek Dam, UT
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 71 degrees at Preston Moor Park (Lancashire)
Low: 41 degrees at Sennybridge (Powys)
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 68 degrees
Low: 52 degrees
TODAY'S COND
A generally mild and bright day with hazy sunshine.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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