Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
MARK VOGAN'S TROPICAL LATEST
Whilst Mexico braces for what could be a "Major" hit by Karl, Bermuda braces for perhaps a Fabian repeat this weekend....
As Karl crosses the Bay of Campeche over the next 24 hours, he's likely gain gain intensity and bring a hard hit to Mexico's northeast coast, Igor remains tough, dangerous and raises the fears of those on Bermuda whilst Julia's gets ripped apart by shear as she turns northeastwards....
HURRICANE KARL
As Karl crosses the Yucatan, he retained it's shape, structure and organisation well, in doing so, once he returned to warm waters, it didn't take long for the spark to ignite and Karl to return to hurricane status once again, the problem is, he's not only heading directly into Mexico's northeast coast, but he's strengthening markedly and aiming for an area vunerable to flooding with even Mexico City, one of the world's most populated city's likely to see flooding from Karl.
The dynamics of the situation is so much so, that's he's in an environment very favourable for "rapid intensification" and that's thanks to not only very warm water he's over, or is it the lack of shear and inhibiting weather within and around the system, but the actual shape of the coast that's not surrounding Karl is a plus for the system's "want for strengthening" as the curve of the coast, the mountains inland from the coast, will aid in wrapping up the circulation and tighten it as he approaches shore. The size of Karl plays a role in thisn"tightening up", as it tightens, it lowers central pressure and therefore intensifies the winds.
A severe hit by what will likely be a strong category 2 hurricane OR a category 3 hurricane will bring fairly substantial damage to property right at the coast, and flooding with major, devastating flooding likely inland and over the mountain communties.
As Igor holds strong at category 4 intensity and commences his turn around the high more towards the northwest and eventually north, Bermuda lies "at present" within the bullseye of Igor's maximum wrath. Although Igor is expected to drop in intensity as he progresses into slightly cooler waters and more mid-latitude upper-level effects start to weaken the powerful hurricane, Igor, if it wehere to pass close ot over Bermuda, then the impacts would likely be that of Fabian, which struck close by as a cat 3 producing major damage...
I expect Igor to be at category 2, if not 3 and run past Bermuda, as close as 100 or less miles and produce a fairly substantial impact to the island.. however the outcome, though may be less, may also just as likely to worse.. Stay tuned, for more tomorrow!
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By Mark Vogan
After stormy weather which brought worst conditions to Jersey in 25 years and 102mph gusts to Cairngorm Summit, now it's the cold that follows
After a stormy past 36 hours across the UK, now that the low has pushed off to the east and yesterday and today saw the ushering down of colder air from the north. Today's high at my house here in Lennoxtown was a mere 59 degrees, despite a very sunny day... Tonight as colder air is in place, aloft and skies are clear and winds relatively light, it's likely that our current temp as of 10.15pm will drop towards the 30s by dawn... perhaps below freezing at Aviemore.
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High: 109 degrees at Gila Bend, AZ
Low: 20 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 59 degrees
Low: 48 degrees
TODAY'S COND
A dawn which brought sunshine, clear skies and a cold breeze, giving way to little warming despite plenty of sunshine, the high of 59 degrees under sunshine illustrates how cold the air aloft is over the UK.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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