Thursday, June 3, 2010

3 June, 2010

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CHECK OUT MARK VOGAN'S NEW VIDEO BLOG, RELEASED ON THE FACEBOOK FAN PAGE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON

Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Breaking News
Tropical Cyclone Phet becomes second strongest in Arabian Sea and aims straight for Oman

LATEST NEWS via AccuWeather: Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phet to Hit Oman Thursday Night/Friday

CLICK HERE

















Tropical Cyclone Phet
by Tim Ballisty, The Weather Channel

Tropical Cyclone Phet is a dangerous category 4 hurricane with top winds of 145 mph.

Phet is located in the Arabian Sea and is now the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea cyclone on record just behind category 5 Tropical Cyclone Gonu which produced major destruction in Oman in 2007.
READ IN FULL HERE


Hurricane history near Gulf oil slick

By Jonathan Erdman, The Weather Channel

You've probably heard about the rather dire 2010 Atlantic hurricane season predictions. You may have read about the potential impacts of hurricanes on the oil spill.


But what does history have to say about the vulnerability of the area around the Gulf oil spill to hurricanes? We'll address the frequency question here.

NOT AS "FREQUENT" AS YOU MIGHT THINK

When compared to such "hot spots" as the North Carolina coast and South Florida, historically speaking, hurricanes are not as frequent in the oil slick region. Over the long term, you can expect a hurricane within 85 miles of the northern Gulf Coast generally once every 8-12 years.

Read in Full, HERE

also, check this interesting piece out: STORM IMPACTS SINCE 2000



Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather

VIDEO: Tropical Discussion: Four areas of concern being watched
AccuWeather

VIDEO: Severe Thunderstorms Forming in the Northeast U.S.
AccuWeather

VIDEO: Severe Storms Threaten Easterners
AccuWeather

Severe Weather to Threaten Northeast's I-95 Corridor
AccuWeather

Florida to Louisiana under the Greatest Risk of Oil Contamination during Hurricane Season
AccuWeather

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

SOUTH ASIA WEATHER PATTERN ALTERED BY CYCLONE PHET. HOTTEST AIR NOW TAKING IT'S NATURAL SHIFT AWAY FROM PAKISTAN AND TOWARDS ARABIA AND OTHER PLACES

The hottest air instead of being centered across Pakistan and northwest India like it has been over the past month or so, it has be shoved east and west thanks to Cyclone Phet which has progressed north over the mid-80 degree waters of the Arabian Sea. This has ultimately split the powerful upper level high that has brought super heat of up to 128 degrees in Pakistan which produced a brand new WORLD RECORD FOR MAY. The influence of the Cyclone is forcing the commencement of the monsoon in areas and is also likely ending the "world's warmest temps" for this region of the world. EARLY SEASON HOTTEST is literally always in the Pakistan/northwest India region BEFORE the monsoon kicks in and calls a halt the the very worst, torturous heat. 

So where does the core of heat shift to once the monsoon gets going? Well it can depend upon several factors, one including, just how strong and how widespread the monsoon effects south Asia. Often as June commences the upper 40s to around 50C heat pushes east and west, effecting and centering itself across the Arabian penninsula, there highs day after day will top the upper 40s to perhaps low 50s C in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran. The core of heat which was once right over Jacobabad, Pakistan is now over Kabul and Baghdad, Iraq. Back east across India the storms blow and rains pour, it is still hot, even under clouds and torrential rains but not like it was when the sun and high pressure was in control. Quite often when west India is experiencing monsoonal effects, the eastern half of the country may still be under the blocwtorch (like we're seeing now) and sunshine and mid-40s may still be the rule.

The other places such as the North African Sahara as well as the Desert Southwest of the USA will be by this stage catching up on "world's hottest" Usually by late June through mid August, it's a fight between the deserts of California and Arizona and the Algerian or other Saharan nations for world's hottest temperatures. Day after day, high pressure is exceptionally powerful and aided by both latitude and more importantly, the desert terrain feedback with minimal moisture and maximum, uninterupted beaming rays of sunlight to the arid surface... Highs almost always top 120 degrees and at times soar within reach of 130 degrees. California's Death Valley is the top contender for this toasty feat, whilst anywhere from Algeria, Morrocco, Tunisia, Libya, all the way to Eqypt have a chance at reaching these heights thanks to such vastness of the Sahara.

UK ENJOYING WARMTH AND SUN, NEXT WEEK A RETURN TO COOL BEFORE PERHAPS THE WARMEST WEATHER OF YEAR AROUND JUNE 10-12TH.

Whilst we enjoy perfect BBQ weather and lovely warmth, we are yet again going to cool next week, but southern sreas of Britain may remain warm (low 70s) through the first half of next week whilst Scotland returns to the low 60s as a trough of low pressure drops down again.

However, mid-range models suggest a return to high pressure by NEXT weekend and the pressures look stronger than anything we've seen this year, what does that mean? Well warmest weather from south to north in about 10 days from now.

CHECK OUT MY NEW VIDEO BLOG WHICH TALKS ABOUT THIS STORY IN MORE DETAIL
HERE

Stay tuned! 

Vagaries of the Weather
India & sub-continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia

Update of "Phet" @7pm IST

(CAT4),current location is 20.0N 59.4E within 100 Kms South East of Oman Coast.

But certainly not gaining intensity, on the contrary getting weaker, very slightly. Last 2 postings on this blog shows "Phet" getting weaker slightly, and now heading North.Winds are at 105 Knots, with central pressure of about 944 Mb. The Wave height is 10 meters. But it still remains at CAT 4.

Cyclone PHET has changed track to a Northerly towards Oman from the earlier North Westwards direction. There could be initial landfall over OMAN within 12 Hours due to Northerly track change.The track has changed due to the W.D. racing ahead of the cyclone. (See previous blog update for this).

Hottest in Asia: Basra(Iraq): 47c.

Hottest in India, Gaya: 45.5c
Hottest Night: New Delhi ,S,Jung: 34.7c

Read our partner's blog post in full, HERE


What's Reaching Today's Blogs?

4-KM WRF Predicted Great Lakes MCV
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

Living With Hurricanes: Katrina and Beyond
Northeast Quadrant

Showery weekend ahead
Valley Weather, Montreal, QC

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 109 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 23 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA

Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

High: 76 degrees at Preston Moor Park
Low: 35 degrees at Santon Downham

Today's Extremes here at my house

High: 70 degrees (Warmer, filtered sun and high level clouds)
Low: 49 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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