Monday, June 28, 2010

28 June, 2010

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Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan


Tropical Storm Alex to become Hurricane
Mark Vogan

Alex will become a hurricane whether it be later tonight (US time) or tomorrow. It appears that it's track is showing signs of a more northward jog and may take aim at the Mexico-Texas border, could this system become a cat-3 storm? Stay tuned...

Alex to Become a Hurricane Before Hitting Texas or Mexico
AccuWeather News

Britain set for its hottest day ever this summer (but rain's on its way this week)
Daily Mail


your america today forecast
by mark vogan

southeast & florida
Houston to Miami will spell and decent chance of PM storms today with LOWER temps, highs should only top the 90-92 range for Houston, 88-90 for New Orleans and low 90s throughout Florida, so a slight relief for the Sunbelt after a gruelling past 2-3 weeks of low to mid to upper 90s! Lows however will continue to run into the mid to upper 70s with high dew point air. As for the interior Southeast, Highs are expected to top the low to mid-90s, slightly lower humidity and with a 30-50% storm chance today for places from Mongtomery to Atlanta to Charlotte.. Lows will run into the usual mid-70s tonight.
northern plains & midwest
A simply BEAUTIFUL day for folks from Bismarck to Chicago, the front has pushes through and skies will be sunny today, low humidity and highs in the low 80s for the western and central Dakotas, mid-70s for Minneapolis and much of Minnesota to low 80s for Chicago today, just glorious weather indeed. Down in St Louis, we see a trim back of the heat there with highs around 90 with mostly sunny skies. What more could you ask for. Where are the storms today? Down into the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee valleys! Lows tonight should be ranging from the very comfortable 50s in the northwest, low 60s for MSP and CHI, 70 for St Louis.
southwest & northwest
The heat builds across much of the West with highs oushing the upper 90s as far north as Salt Lake and Boise. The deserts will see highs top 115 in the warmest spots whilst 110 should be the max today for both Phoenix and Vegas! Whilst 97 is expected in Salt Lake and 95 in Denver, 99 is Boise, though it's sunny, it will only be in the 60s and 70s for Seattle down to Portland. Lows range from 40 and 50s across the PNW. near 70 for the Great Basin and 80s for the low Deserts of the Southwest.
southern plains
A day with a high threat of thunderstorms for most areas. Highs range for the low 90s around Houston to mid-90s for Dallas and north and west Texas. Low run from near 80 along the Gulf to mid-70s inland!
northeast & mid-atlantic
A day of heat, humidity and late afternoon storms. A front is pushign towards the Atlantic coast today but before it's arrival. Major heat will effect a region from DC to Boston. Upper 90s for DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia, whilst mid-90s for New York City all the way to Boston... Around 4-5pm on into the evening will need to be watched for strong to severe thunderstorms that could threaten most areas. Lows should be in the mid-70s for most!

Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather














VIDEO: Alex Should Become a Hurricane, Celia and Darby still Weaken
AccuWeather

Cooling, Drying Slated for Midwest, Northeast
AccuWeather

Another Round of Damaging Storms in the Northeast
AccuWeather

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

Exceptional Night Warmth Sunday into Monday morning from Washington DC to New York














Just look at those night lows recorded yesterday (Monday) morning. 84 degrees for a high here would be very very warm, even for folks down in London. That is around the national high for the UK... Indeed as stated when I spoke of the warm mornings, this aids in setting a good base for a very warm to hot afternoon if winds, lack of cloudcover and other aspects are just right. Yesterday saw highs rocket into the UPPER 90s from North Carolina, Virginia up through Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey all the way into the Greater New York area. It reached a sweaty 94 in Boston.














It was also the hottest day nationally as well as for many Western cities with a hot 100 degree reading at Reno and 102 in Boise... The prize as is often the case goes to Death Valley where the high there topped 123 degrees yesterday. Even the Southern States which has seen the core of heat stretch from west Texas to the Carolinas for the past month saw yet another hot and humid gruelling day with a high reaching 97 in Dallas, 100 in Shreveport and 95 on the south Atlantic shore at Charleston.

As impressive as these numbers are, it really was the lows of 81 at Washington, 82 at Philadelphia and 84 at LaGuardia that really grabbed my attention. Bare in mind that those hot numbers are the LOWEST reading reported and therefore most of the overnight hours likely saw upper 80s to near 90 degrees at LaGuardia and perhaps over 90 degrees before midnight, that's very uncomfortable..

Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia

Monday, June 28, 2010


An IMD update said on Sunday that the offshore trough extending from south Gujarat coast to coastal Karnataka coast persists.

According to international forecasts,the west coast and, can expect heavy to very heavy rainfall from around July 1 (Thursday).

Now thats the forecast estimate, but will the forecast sustain?? I really don't know !!

I have given the reasons in my blogs for my doubts, of the monsoon current picking up by the 1st. I do not see any "low"or system developing either side,before the 2/3 July. And, the MJO shows no positive signs till the 5th. July.

A real meaningfull momentum to the off shore trough in the west will be only after an active MJO, or a low in the bay draws the winds from the sea onto the land.

To add to the negatives,a feeble western disturbance would be moving over northwest India for the next 3 days. This would prevent the monsoon from moving further into the region.

(These are my personal judgements, and I think prevailing upon estimates given by proffesional meteorologists would be a better reliance for commercial use).

The "huge" convective thunder clouds forming last 2 days in the North Maharashtra regions are basically rising "heat thermals" and I don't think realted to any organised system anywhere. Its just a lot of on land moisture rising to great heights. And precipitating heavy "evening thundershowers', nevertheless. Organised or not, useful rain nevertheless !

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What's Reaching Today's Blogs?


Possible Tornado Damages Michigan Campground
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

Hot, Then Not
Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 123 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 31 degrees at Stanley, ID

Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

High: 84 degrees at Charlwood (Surrey)
Low: 44 degrees at Katesbridge (Co. Down)

Today's Extremes here at the house

High: 67 degrees
Low: 54 degrees

TODAY'S COND
A cool, cloudy rainy day with heavy and persistent evening rains.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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