Thursday, June 10, 2010

10 June, 2010

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Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan











GRAPHIC COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

World Cup Weather 2010
BBC Weather
While South Africa is at one with its love of football, the same can't be said for its Climate.



Winter in South Africa isn't quite like the typical UK winter but it is still winter in the southern hemisphere - so what will the weather be like for the World Cup?

Read full story by clicking title above!

Weather for World Cup Opening Matches
AccuWeather News
Friday's matches

South Africa vs. Mexico
Host country South Africa takes on Mexico in Soccer City Stadium in Johannesburg at 4 p.m. local time (10 a.m. EST). Some clouds and sun is expected, with a game time temperature of 60 degrees F (16 C). Winds will be north at 8-15 mph.
Uruguay vs. France
The Friday evening match will be across the country in Cape Town at 8:30 p.m. local time (2:30 EDT). Uruguay will take on France in a clear to partly cloudy nighttime sky, with 56 F (13 C) expected at game time. Winds should be a slight breeze of 4-8 mph. READ IN FULL, Click link above!


More Tropical Development Expected Over the Arabian Sea
AccuWeather News


your america today forecast
by mark vogan

northeast
An area of low pressure over Quebec is sparking showers and thunderstorms across New England today and this and associated cloudiness should hold highs across New England to only the upper 50s in some areas of Maine, mid-60s for Vermont, upstate New York, New Hampshire and Massachussetts, some areas may creep to 70 if their lucky. Further south towards across Connecticut and down to New York City we should see more sunshine and upper 70s to near 80 is expected with low to mid 80s down towards Philly. Further south and we drop below an occluded front, south of it (located around the PA-MD line) will see highs warm towards 90! Quite a contrast from DC and Baltimore to western Maine where they likely won't get to 60 in spots!
southeast & Florida
A hot day with mostly sunny skies from Louisiana to the Carolinas. Greatest rain chances will be across northeast Texas  today thanks to a persistent upper low. This large rain amounts are causing many issues and rains may filter down towards Houston, but there, instead of 80-100% rain chances, it's more like 50% and more in the form of heat-induced thunderstorms as both temps and dew points are high and that percentage drops further east across Louisiana, Mississippi, Ala, Georg as skies are mostly sunny. As usual thunderstorms can blossom anywhere during the mid day period until 5pm when highs range from upper 80s to mid-90s. New Orleans may see 92-94 today with a low of 77 (dew points, mid to upper 70s). Houston 92-94, low of 75. Atlanta 88-91, Low 74. Orlando hi around 90, low 72 and Miami hi 94-96, low 80. Many areas nearest the Gulf and south florida should see dew points into the upper 70s with some spots topping 80 where nearby water temps are now into the 80s and and low temps shouldn't drop much below 80. Bermuda high dominates and it will feel hot and uncomfortable throughout the southeast today. REMEMBER YOUR SUNSCREEN! 
northern plains
A cool day on tap for the Northern Plains where clouds and rain associated with a Pacific system will hold highs only to only around 70 for Minneapolis and 74 for Chicago, though skies there should be slightly brighter, A tongue of high pressure and warmth surging north from Texas will allow 80s to near 90 degrees highs for Nebraska and up to South Dakota today, upper 80s will be found across Missouri and southern and central Illinois into the Ohio Valley.
southern plains
Texas should enjoy mostly sunshine and low dew points from central and south-central Texas WESTWARD, but not eastward, where heavy rains, possibly record rains are continuing to menace northeast Texas and create major flooding of roads etc. Temps should be warmest over West Texas with mid to upper 90s with some low 100s for the desert. Gulf Coast Texas from Brownsville to Houston should see highest humidity and low to mid-90s making it feel like 105-115 this afternoon... Futher north into Oklahoma, we should see storms pop up with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s for Tulsa and OK City.
southwest
The hot air has abated across the southwest with numbers now struggling in many spots to top 100. Vegas likely will only top 96-98 today whilst Phoenix may top around 100. A sunny, though likely breezier day with the continuing downward trend in temps over the next 48 hours before a rebuilding of the high westward should return most places towards or above 100. The trough is now deepend across northern Calif and across Utah where rains and cool temps are present.
northwest
Rainy, cool times for Seattle and Portland and across to eastern portions of WA and OR with even Montana feeling the effects of the cold air aloft where highs may struggle to top 70 in many areas with rain and cloud spoiling things. Highs today may fail to top 58 in Seattle and 60 in Boise.

Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather














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Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

Same stubborn trough lingering over Britain, nothing new unfortunately

Unfortunately folks, though we enjoyed more sun than clouds today and bumped those numbers above 60.. we don't appear to be seeing a change to warmer high pressures for the next 5-7 days, it's actually a tease when looking at the models as warm, highs pump north to our west towards Iceland and to our east across central Europe. As you'll have noticed I have not yet issued my revised summer forecast for the UK.. Other things have prioratized that and shall not be written up and released for a few days yet....

TROPICAL UPDATE

The tropics remains fairly quiet as high pressure and upper wind shear rules the Gulf and Caribbean at this point in time. Any waves tracking across the Atlantic are tracking way, way  to the south of the "normal" track (ITCZ) as high pressure dominates, but this as we progress through June should progress north as the Indian monsoon kicks off proper and a more vigorous African wave train kicks off. The Mid Atlantic ridge should slowly progress north and position itself at it's most northerly position by late July and into August.

Areas of Convection

We do have a strong wave now progressing over west central Africa and will push out to sea probably in the next 24 to 36 hours. We shall keep our eyes on that but right now no models are jumping on to it developing, but this may or may not change.

There is a series of weak waves travelling across the further south than normal ITCZ zone and looks like none of these show signs of development. Across central America and off the lower Mexican west coast, we have an area of enhanced convection but nothing is brewing but certainly we shall keep an eye on this area... Stay tuned.

Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia















Thursday, June 10, 2010

If we have a look at the rain fall distribution map of 10th. morning (IMD), we see some fairly good amounts of rain in Kerala and the North-East on Wednesday.The NRL rain accumalation map for the day of 10th. June shows some rainfall in South Konkan and Goa, and some parts of coastal Gujarat.


What I am coming to is still there is very sparse rainfall north of the Karnataka coast. I would justify an advance (of the Monsoon) North of Karnataka only after the predicted Low comes into effect off the Goa coast.
 
The formation of a trough off the Goa coast (see map), still in the initial stage seen as an upper air low,and forming, may have inspired the announcement of the advance into South Konkan. In the MSLP map, a weak ridge is still visible in the Arabian Sea. (The reason for the North-West winds). This needs to be eliminated, to ensure a full fledged monsoon along the west coast, and for further progress into the interiors thence.


Progress in the sequence forecasted in yesterday's blog: The low in the Bay seems to be creeping inland, and is now a "pulse", which is expected to track westwards through Karnataka. All pieces must fall in place and the low must re-emerge in the Arabian Sea for the monsoon to move north from Monday as estimated.

Shall keep this space updated on the progress.

Hottest in Asia: Dammam Airport (Saudi Arabia) 47c

Hottest in Sub-Continent: Jacobabad (Pakistan): 44c

Hottest in India: Akola (Maharashtra) ; 45.4c

Hottest Night: Chandrapur (Maharashtra): 32.8c
 
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What's Reaching Today's Blogs?

NASA to Explore Arctic... By Sea, Not Space
Northeast Quadrant
Going 'Round and 'Round with the Models
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
May was a Mixed Bag across Canada
Brett Anderson, Canada Expert, AccuWeather

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 110 degrees at Bullhead City, AZ
Low: 25 degrees at Boca Reservoir, CA


Today's Extremes here at my house

High: 63 degrees (mostly sunny, breezy but milder than of late)
Low: 50 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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