Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
**NEW HURRICANE EARL UPDATE AND VIDEO BY MARK VOGAN**
We Now Have "Major" Hurricane Earl
BREAKING NEWS: WINDS NOW UP TO 110MPH!
Hurricane Earl continues to organise and therefore intensify as it makes it's crossing over Northern Leewards en-route to the Western Atlantic, Cape Hattaras, even Cape Cod?
By Mark Vogan
As Category 2 Hurricane Earl makes it's closest approach to the Northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico right now, all interests on this storm continue to intensify as well as the actual storm over the populated US East Coast. What's worrying for me is that with each new run of the multiple computer models, their tracking FURTHER WEST and to be honest, if their correct, then the impact from Earl is becoming greater with each run. Even without a direct hit from Earl, what's a direct hit? When the core or eye crosses the coast, even a close-encounter with this strong system, say the eye passes by Cape Hattaras by even 50 to 100 miles, the hit will still have carried out along the coast bringing 100 mph + winds, flooding rains and heavy swells and even a storm surge onshore, remember the Carolina coast, which is very exposed, sticking out into the Atlantic like a sore thumb will be on the "dirty side", meaning the strongest wind, greatest impact from wind, wave and precipitation WOULD impact the coast and the northeast quadrant of Earl's energy would wrap around the north side and slam onshore. There's no land to weaken or slow down those winds and driving those cat 3 winds over water has much less friction than land, making the overall impact from even a non-landfalling Earl very serious indeed.
HOW STRONG COULD EARL POTENTIALLY BECOME?
Well, right now the National Hurricane Center in Miami, are forecasting with their latest advisory, that winds will increase to a maximum of 130-mph sustained winds, that's CATEGORY 4 intensity and that's the problem the Outer Banks of North Carolina may be facing. As for Cape Cod, MA, well by the time and if Earl was to reach Cape Cod, it would be over cooler waters than off the Carolina coast, therefore one would say a weakening down to say 100-105mph winds would be likely, that would make Earl a category 2 storm. However, say Earl clips the Outer Banks as a cat 4 and commences a speeding up as it catches the westerlies, then a faster paced Earl running between Cape Hattaras and Cape Cod may mean a more powerful hit to the New England coast than one would think as it would have less time to weaken... you get what I mean?
Right now I think cat 4 is a pretty safe bet for Earl in waters between Puerto Rico and Charleston, SC. Not only are waters very warm (mid-80s) but with the presense of the Gulf Stream underneath the surface, stretching deeper than the surrounding water, then there's ample fuel for this system to continue at cat 4 or even cat 5 strength close to shore, but that is worst case... I'm not trying to scare folks, just showing the reality of the situation unfolding here.
I shall talk more about the other systems in the Atlantic later!
Stay tuned.
Latest Links on Earl
Northeast US not done with the heat just yet!
By Mark Vogan
A strong ridge of high pressure has returned to the Northeast US and pumping the heat up into the mid-90s once again from Washington to New York with even low 90s getting all the way up into Boston, this is at the same time, folks are becoming nervous about what may be brewing in the Atlantic and heading a little too close for comfort.
Just when you thought, all the heat and humidity of this long and tiring summer must be over, well it's not I'm affraid, for those that can't get enough of the heat, well it's your year! Highs yesterday were downright toasty and over the next few days they'll continue to soar to levels experienced yesterday where Washington topped 92, look for 95 there the next 3 days, Philadelphia saw 94 and likely you'll see more of that number, perhaps even 95 the next few whilst New York saw a hot 95, you too should see more 95's this week and amazingly, Boston reached an impressive 94 degrees yesterday, you folks will get more 90s but I would go as far as to say, yesterday was likely your hottest, I think it'll be more like 90-91 over the next 3 days for you guys.
IT WAS ALSO HOT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST YESTERDAY
Not only was the heat on in the Northeast yesterday but it was also on over the Northern Plains and down into the Lower Midwest where 94 degrees was reached at Minneapolis and a tie for the hottest this summer in Chicago which also topped out at 94 degrees. Kansas saw 95, Nebraska 96 whilst central South Dakota torched their way to 98 degrees. This all thanks to the trough driving that very chilly air down the West Coast which has pumped up the ridge over the center of the nation and east.
IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN HEAT, IT WAS COLD IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
Whilst the trough continues to dig down into the Great Basin of the West and pumps that ridge to the east bringing all those toasty late summer temps further east, it was mere 60s for eastern Montana, that's quite a contrast to just east of there where highs where appraoch 100 degrees in the Dakotas, even greater contrast was the high of only 49 degrees at Cut Bank in northwest Montana where it was a miseribly wet and probably windy day up there with high elevation snows.
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Record-Challenging Heat in the Northeast
By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist
US Open to Begin Hot, Less Humid
By Gina Cherundolo, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
Tropical Systems Bring East Coast Hazardous Beach Conditions
By Kirstie Hettinga, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
Dangerous Thunderstorms to Menace the Northern Plains
By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
Is this Britain's Indian Summer?
8.30pm UPDATE: Skies are very clear with no wind, current temperature now dropped to 55 degrees and cause there is no wind like there was at this time last night, it may be colder tonight than last as the lack of wind is providing a longer period of time for cooling.... My forecast high for my house is now down to 37 to 39 degrees with frost likely.
The Fall season is knocking on the UK's doorstep as days are sunny and pleasantly warm and nights growing crisp as those clear skies and light winds allow the heat by day to escape back to space under increasingly longer hours of darkness.
High's today have been very comfortable with a reading here at my house of 66 degrees and many areas across the Central Belt has enjoyed abundant sunshine, light winds and mild temperatures. This comes after a fairly chilly morning where lows crept into the 30s in many spots with isolated frost forming.
The air though mild today will grow cold, if not even colder than last night with spots likely taking a run at the freezing mark and this thanks to an Anticyclone that pushed in off the Atlantic yesterday is provising us with a classic Indian Summer pattern across the UK. At this time of year and with a dry air mass in place, it was nicely by day but with lower daytime temperatures combined with increased duration of darkness by night, temperatures can drop off quickly, particularly over sheltered rural areas outside of towns and city centres which hold the heat for longer thanks to heat from concrete and street lighting etc. Watch tonight and the next few nights whilst skies are clear and winds light those valleys of central and northern England, Wales and Scotland, especially those with gently slopped hillsides as temperatures drop fast beyond the 9pm hour when darkness is closing in and all that daytime heat is escaping back to the stars. Highs are likely to push a very pleasant and comfortable 70 degrees but grab that jacket if your out by evening as temps drop through the 50s, 40s and even into the 30s as heavy dew forms and even a light frosting on cars and blades of grass. I do expect the classic cold nooks of England, Wales and Northern Ireland to drop to freezing or even -1 or -2C and perhaps a -2 or -3C in the high elevation valleys of the Scottish Highlands where warm air rises and cold air sinks down the valley walls and collecting at the bottoms..
BBC's forecast highs and lows for a selection of UK locales today...
Croydon (South London) 70 degrees (21C)
Portsmouth (Hampshire) 70 degrees (21C)
Sanquhar (Dumfries and Galloway) 39 degrees (4C)
Bowling (West Dumbartonshire) 37 degrees (3C)
Newry (Co Down) 37 degrees (3C)
Brecon (Powys) 36 degrees (2C)
Aviemore (Highlands) 36 degrees (2C)
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Monday, August 30, 2010
The Vortex position. We see the original UAC in the Gulf and an additional elongated UAC south of Gujarat peninsula, stretching upto Mumbai. Now, that's an added UAC system, a bonus to the original one.
Resulted in good rainfall in Gujarat and North coastal Mah.
Some prominent Mah. rains as on today morning:Thane received 163 mms, S'Cruz 138 mms, Karjat 158 mms and Bhira 292 mms.
Intermittent rains continue in Mumbai today.
Detailed report of Gujarat rainfall and Mah. figures will be put up at 8 pm tonite.
Check out Rajesh's blog Here!
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
How Big Will Hurricane Earl's Waves Get?
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
Hot
Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 105 degrees at Laredo, TX
Low: 25 Tuolumne Meadows, CA
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 66 degrees
Low: 40 degrees
After a crisp, autumnal start, it was a glorious late summer's day with plentiful sunshine and warmth with only the odd patchy fair weather cumulus.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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