On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Category 4 Danielle beginning to give Bermuda the Jitters, showing us what may be lying ahead!
By Mark Vogan
DANIELLE STONGER THAN FIRST THOUGHT
Why did it rapidly intensify in an area less likely to do so?
Interestingly, Danielle rapidly intensified over an area that I did not think it would as waters though plenty warm (low to mid-80s) and the overall envirnoment good, I wonder whether there has been a little shear or dry air entrainment that has been holding Danielle back, if you remember this storm was up and down with it's intensity and then all of a sudden, the slow intensification all of a sudden become RAPID growing from cat 2 to 4 in a matter of one overnight period. So, why did this occur? Perhaps a little dry air or shear dissapation? I wonder because like already stated above, the waters are warm but not particularly so or particularly deep warm water either. In order to tap the truely bathtub waters you need to head further west towards the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico basins where waters are a few degrees warmer than the central Atlantic but not only that, their warmer to much deeper depths below the surface, particularly where the loop current is or the Gulf Stream. Perhaps there's a small current or eddy out further into the Atlantic where Danielle is positioned but my main theory is perhaps that a little shear and or, dry air has dissipated and allowed Danielle to flare up to a 135-mph hurricane.
DANIELLE LIKELY TO RUN EAST OF BERMUDA
It appears at this time that Danielle will not only slowly weaken probably back down to Cat 3 strength over the next 12 or so hours because it's not in a prime area for sustaining such power but it's likely to track east of the island of Bermuda, however, wobbling and a slight westward jog is all that's needed for a greater impact to Bermuda from Danielle and one must watch, particularly the east and north shores for high waves, perhaps even a little storm surge but it must be noted that a slight more westward track would mean stronger winds, heavier rains and bigger waves... Stay tuned!
EACH STORM THAT TRACKS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM AFRICA ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH SYSTEM, EARL AND FIONA (TO BE) LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO THREATEN THE US COAST
As you'll see from sat images, each system that spins off Africa and out over the Atlantic is tracking further south than the first, therefore this is something that needs to be watched carefully, why? Well, a further south track of a storm means it's less likely to catch troughs that drop down from the north and therefore their likely to keep progressing westwards, into not only warmer, deeper waters that can allow this to grow stronger and bigger but there is much higher potential for land impact and one must watch closely the tracking and movements of Earl and the system to it's east that will likely become Fiona through time. Both Earl and Fiona (to be) has a greater likelihood of tracking further west, missing the trough connection between the two High's and therefore the US may be under target for BOTH storms which once into the prime areas of the Western basin, they have a lot of heat toi become very strong systems if the upper atmosphere is conducive, which it likely will be.
TROPICAL LINKS
VIDEO: Danielle a Cat 4 and Earl still weak
Dan Kottlowski & Joe Sobel
MUST SEE VIDEO
See Hurricane Danielle from the Space Shuttle
AccuWeather
Long-Term Rough Surf to Plague Atlantic Coast
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Nice in the Northeast - Will it Last?
By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist
Downpours to Soak the Gulf Coast
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Minor Weather Break May Aid Fight against Fires Out West
By Kirstie Hettinga, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
30 degree low at Altnaharra, Sutherland and 40s here illustrates the advancement of the season.
As summer wanes after another overall dissapointing season, nights are growing longer and under clear skies and light winds, the lengthening hours of darkness and weakening warmth of airmasses are showing at night as temperatures drop off. Fog is forming easier now as the temperature drops easier towards the dewmpoint and when both meet at the same level, fog forms.
With my job, I drive a truck between Bathgate and Inverness, a beautiful 4 hour hourney which takes me through the heart of the Scottish Highlands and also, from my point of view and interest of weather, it's a facinating route as the A9 passes within a mile or two of several well known cold spots within the Highlands. Whilst passing such spots as Dalwhinnie, Aviemore, Carrbridge I remember that these places got very cold during winter (-15 to -20C) and indeed these longer nights of darkness, their relatively high elevation within the "Glens" are the coldest spots in all of the UK and during the past few nights of driving up past these spots, heavy fog has formed as the cold air from the surrounding hills swoosh down at night, collecting at the bottom of these Glens and villages. Where the fog doesn't form and skies are clear and calm, the temperatures are nowing dropping in the 2-5C range, over the next few weeks it will likely fall to or below freezing when conditions are clear and calm.
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Friday, August 27, 2010
Vortex of -40 over South Gujarat/N.Mah. coasts, and interior Mah..
The Northern suburbs of Mumbai recieved heavy thunder showers on Friday afternoon. Some of our readers have confirmed heavy afternoon rains at Chembur and Deonar. Mk informs of heavy rain from 2pm at Panvel.
The showers were patchy, but heavy in certain areas. The Southern city was dry, with no rain.
Some parts, like Dindoshi (Aarey) recieved 88 mms of rain within a two and a half hour time period, 3 pm to 5.30 pm, and 123 mms in the 12 hr period upto 9 pm.
Other areas with rain were: Chincholi 61 mms, Malad 49 mms, Deonar 40 mms, Airport 25 mms, Kandivali 22 mms.
See Rajesh's Blog HERE
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Hurricane Katrina Redux
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
The East Coast Can't Dodge the Tropical Bullet for Very Long
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
Sunny and Warmer
Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 118 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 30 degrees at Boca Reservoir, CA
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 65 degrees
Low: 46 degrees
A cool, clear start with some fog forming under the settled overnight conditions which gave way to a mostly sunny pleasant late summer afternoon.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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