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On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
HURRICANE EARL
Leeward Islands to expect hurricane-force winds and torrential rains tonight
By Mark Vogan
As Earl pushes westwards through tonight, it will impact the northernmost Leeward Islands with hurricane-force winds and drenching, flooding rains as well as pounding surf. This system will progress west and turn northwest through the overnight hours and will likely bring some damage to property on those islands.... The US will need to be concerned as Earl continues it's west, northwest track over the next 48 to 72 hours as this system may approach the NC coast by midweek and it still can't be ruled out that Earl won't hit or grace the Outer Banks of North Carolina by late week as a category 3 storm. Stay tuned!
Awaiting the Development of a New Tropical Depression
AccuWeather News
May 3rd, 2010 frost in my front garden after a cold low of 30 degrees F! Patches of snow remained on the hills in front of my house on this date since the first accummulation way back on December 19th 2009, a period of nearly 5 straight months where snow patches lay permanent!
Unusually Harsh Conditions effecting the Scottish Highlands today! Windchills as low as -13C at the 900m level. Lows tonight, cold enough for frost!
By Mark Vogan
A howling north wind blowing down Scotland and England is bringing an unusually cold feel to the late August air and in fact as I just opened my window there, it actually feels more like October or November, than August 28th out there. When looking at the Cairngorm Mountain website, now only has fresh snow fallen on top of the peaks but winds are blasting in the severe-gale territory as well as savage windchills down to -13C at the 900 metre level, enough to provide frost bite!! This is thanks to a jet stream that is driving air from the far north all the way down Britain. The jet stream propelled flow is providing those stronger winds to gale-force over mountain tops of the Grampians and along exposed coasts and also pulling it fast enough, it doesn't have time to moderate the same way it normally would.
A departing Atlantic low and an arriving high to the west, has aligned the flow aloft to help make for these cold, windy conditions. At the 900 metre level, the raw level at which this air is straight from the Arctic in it's raw form, is not only producing snow showers over the peaks of the Grampians but is creating windchills down to -13C, yes enough to produce forstbite on exposed skin... Remember, our highest peaks are only between 4,000 and 4,800ft above sea level and that is impressive.
The air at generally sea level to say 700ft isn't particularly cold as temps at low levels have crept into the low 60s (mid to upper 10s C) with Glasgow likely warming in sunshine and shelter from the wind to 18 or 19C but it's the north wind that's actually kinda creating a windchill even in urban, lowlying areas because of it's northerly origin. The clear, sunny skies is helping warm the surface somewhat but likely if it was cloudy and winds blowing from the north, we may have had a tough time getting into the 50s today (above 10C).
UNUSUAL AUGUST FROST VERY LIKELY TONIGHT
Tonight will be of particular interest to me, and to most others, a night to put on the heating.
Those howling winds of today will weaken and lighten up once the sun starts to set, skies that have had patchy cloud come and go will dissappear and we should see completely clear and starry skies by dark. Now as the air that those winds transported down from the north is in place over the country, I expect that as the night wares on and the calm, clear skies radiate daytime heat back to space, this should help allow the air that's very cold above to fall down to the surface and this "should" bring our temperatures down into the 30s and I do believe that we may have frost by morning even if actual temperatures don't hit freezing point. It only takes temps to drop into the 3-4C range for frost to form on exposed surfaces that cool easier or faster than other outdoor objects. Cars, blades of grass etc easily see their surfaces fall to freezing and frost to form on them, even if just 6-inches above the ground remains at 3-4C above freezing...
Sheltered, interior Highland Glens may actually see temperatures drop into the minus territory with lows in spots expected by me, to fall to around 28-30 degrees or -2 to -3C as air that sinks at night flows down the gentle slopping hillsides of some Glens. Those Glens that have sharp slopping hillsides, don't see cold air collect the same at the bottom of the Glens as the air excelerates down steeper hillsides and actually mixes the air, just like wind mixes and provides heat to the air...
So, tonight will be a test as to how low the temperature can go even within the Central Lowlands, we're still in the month of August and it would be amazing to see frost as early as this, I've seen some Mid-September mornings with frost but I don't remember it when we've still been in August...
It's all thanks to cold air being transported down via north winds behind a departing Atlantic low and ahead of a high pressure cell to the west, the jet stream itself was also transporting the colder Arctic origin air down and when it's nighttime and winds light, the heat from the warm surface is released back to space, and at the same time, colder air held in the mid to upper-levels can be pulled down with "sinking", remembering cold air is dense (heavier) than warm air, therefore explaining why heat escapes from the surface and cold air from above falls down to the surface..
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Earl May Pass Dangerously Close to the U.S. East Coast
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Severe Thunderstorms to Threaten Northern Plains
AccuWeather
Flooding Downpours Douse the Gulf Coast
By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
USA continues it's wait for a major hurricane landfall
Interestingly the US, despite devastating hits from such hurricanes as Ike in 2008, there has been no hurricane, including Ike that has struck US shores as a major hurricane. Wilma struck Florida in late October 2005 as a 120-mph storm, producing massive damage and was in fact one of the most costly hurriacnes in US history. Whilst Wilma hit Florida on the early hours of the Monday, if I can remember correctly, so I got married on the Friday (I can remember that, funnily enough) and since then, the US coast has not experienced a cat 3 storm which is pretty amazing. Those systems in 2008 though do be left in wonder as to whether there was a "major hit" when looking at the damage!
Anyway, when looking at the situation now in the Atlantic with Danielle which became a powerful category 4 storm and Earl ramping up and the system behind likely to become Fiona, one must wonder when the US coasts escape of cat 3 or greater hits luck will run out and I must say, given the pattern and set up at present, will the US escape a "major hit" even over the next 14 day period?
I can't help but wonder if Earl will track too close for comfort, it's LIKELY to become a major storm and given those water temperatures just off the Carolinas as well as the presence of the Gulf Stream, it's going to be a powerful hurricane nontheless roaming those waters between Bermuda and the US East Coast. As for Fiona to be, well a further west track looks obvious given the set-up and again, one must think a hurrucane and the development into a mjor one at that.
We shall wait and see. Stay tuned!
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Summarising 28th August rainfall:
Mostly around the active vortex (UAC), and vigorous in Gujarat.
Some of the heaviest falls in cms.in Gujarat, West Mah. region as on 29th. morning:
Belapur (Thane) 12.7, Roha, Mahabaleshwar 11.9, Sidhpur 8.2, Harnai 8.0, Alibag 7.0, Panvel, Soegaon - 11 each, Srirampur, Kalyan, Vaduj - 10 each, Mahad, Tala, Harnai, Mandangad, Ulhasnagar - 8 each, Alibag, Bhira, Mangaon, Pali, Mhasala, Lanja, Thane, Ambarnath - 7 each.
Now, the current UAC, may linger around the North Mah.coast/South Gujarat coast till Tuesday. With this, I see rainfall continuing around this areas till Tuesday. Heaviest falls will be in the core of the UAC. So, in a way, I feel some heaviest rains could be expected in the Saurashtra areas and North Mah.coasts, but north of Mumbai.
South Gujarat shoulds get heavy rains on Monday and Tuesday.Maybe some heavy rain in
Bharuch on Monday/Tuesday.
For a brief look at the MJO situation, I directly quote from the Australian Buraeu: ""The MJO has displayed generally erratic behaviour, and has had perhaps the greatest influence on weather across southern Asia. Longer term, one would expect to see redevelopment of the MJ
O in the western Indian Ocean around early to mid-September. If this scenario were to play out, we would expect the increased risk of a reinvigoration of the Indian Monsoon, and increased potential for tropical cyclone development in the region".
Monsoon is in active phase as can be seen from the Indian Monsoon Index in the chart which shows above normal activity for the next two weeks:
ECMWRF forecasts another fresh UAC forming North of Mumbai on the 1st. of September,
tracking Northwards into Saurashtra coast, and fizzling out the very next day (2nd.Sept).
IMD sees a low in the bay by the 31st. I am not too optimistic on this low, not around this d
ate at least. Maybe a bit later, after the 4th. Sept. That's my reading of events.
I trust this Map of NCEP/GFS forecast to show the accumalated rainfall till 3rd. Sept.
See Full post HERE!
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 103 degrees at Yuma, AZ
Low: 28 degrees at Meacham, OR
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 61 degrees
Low: 50 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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