On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
BREAKING NEWS
TROPICS BECOMING MORE AND MORE ACTIVE!
By Mark Vogan
The time has come, the wait is over! Danielle rapidly becoming one of a number of systems roaming the playing field of activity after weeks and even months of wait and wonder...
DANIELLE LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO MISS WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWIN HIGH'S
As Hurricane Danielle continues to spin over the central Atlantic and remains fairly weak, this MAY mean a further westward track than first thought. There's a high centered over Bermuda and another further east with a weakness in between. It was first thought that Danielle would intensify into a cat 3 sooner and by doing so, catching the upper-level steering currents and most importantly the trough in between the two high's which would turn the storm north, however with a weaker system it's showing a high liklihood that Danielle will miss the trough and remain embedded within the more "westerly flow" of the mid-levels and continue tracking westwards, however, as a larfe trough swings through the Ohio Valley and out into the Western Atlantuc, two things may happen (1) the trough pushes the high that's over Bermuda eastwards, therefore allowing Danielle to turn north, missing both Bermuda (to the east) and remaining the expected fish storm or the High itself may build and thus if this was to occur, Danielle may roam both longer on a westward track, intensify over warmer, deeper waters of the Western Atlantic but also may threaten either Bermuda, the Canadian Maritimes or worst case the High remains strong enough that is pushes Danielle even further west and perhaps alarming the East Coast that a system named Danielle may threaten their area. Id imagine the biggest threat to the US right now and this far out would perhaps be Cape Cod but a lot can change over the next 4-7 days.
Another thing that needs to be looked at and considered would be that if Danielle was to track "around Bermuda" and keep folks edgy as it runs between Bermuda to the east and Cape Hattaras to the west with anywhere in that area needing to watch, this system would also tap those warmer, deeper waters that are a good 2-5 degrees WARMER and deeper down that where she is currently in the central Atlantic, this means that with good upper-level conditions, you could see Danielle not only go to cat 3 but perhaps push towards the higher end of the category scale which would be of major concern. Even a non-hit to the US would mean of course high surf, rip currents and beach erosion.
This of course is simply personal speculation and may still fail to turn out, it's ideas that I am putting out there, we'll just need to wait and see.
EARL AND FIONA
Behind Danille there is not one but two systems, both of which look likely to form and become the next names of the season. The first system of note is just east of Danielle and looks likely to bocome Earl, behind it, another high contender as it pushes off the African coast and this storm may in fact become Fiona as all these systems push west and underneath a high that's centered over the Azores Islands.
GULF OF MEXICO CONCERNS ALSO
Despite there being plenty to monitor over the open Atlantic in which all three systems could pose issues in their own way, The Gulf needs to also be watched as areas of storms blossom over the central Gulf of Mexico where a boundary lies. So, over the next 24-48 hours the western and northwestern Gulf coasts may need to keep check of the area of showers and storms blowing up over those 85-90 degree waters..
Stay tuned!
RELATED LINKS
VIDEO: Hurricane Danielle, Earl Evolving, Frank Now a Hurricane
Dan Kottlowski and Joe Sobel, AccuWeather
VIDEO: Here They Come (Hurricanes)
Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather
CALIFORNIA HEAT WAVE
Radley Peschel, 12, catches a wave on his board while playing in the water at Crissy Field in San Francisco on Tuesday.
Photo: Laura Morton / Special to The Chronicle
It was hot - records fall all over the Bay Area
San Francisco Chronicle
With heat wave comes wildfire and high surf
Los Angeles Times
IN OTHER NEWS TODAY
Pakistanis flee new monsoon floods in south
BBC Weather
Tornado damages Suffolk village
BBC Weather
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Record-Breaking California Heat Continues Today
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Endless Summer Weather Forecast for the Northeast
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Heavy Rainfall Over Kansas Promising for Winter Wheat
By Carly Porter, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
WHAT A CONTRAST
CALIFORNIA BAKING IN AREAS THAT'S BEEN COLD THIS SUMMER
It's all about the heat across California these days as the strong high that's been dominant furtheast across Texas this summer is now over the Deserts of the Southwest and thanks to it's current position, it's cycling hot air from the interior westwards towards the Pacific coastline, these hot, dry winds, further dry out and heat as they flow over and down the west face of the Coast Range and thus bringing very warm conditions to areas that have seen the coolest temperatures this summer, in fact areas that have been running over 5 degrees below normal since June 1.
Yesterday saw highs as warm as 99 degrees at San Francisco International Airport, 99 at Oakland, 107 at Palmdale, whilst it got to 94 in Downtown Los Angeles.
Today is likely to be even hotter in spots!
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS UNDER THE FRYING PAN, RELIEF TO THE NORTH
Whilst Houston was hot again with a high of 99 degrees and feeling like a steam bath yesterday, it was between 100-105 degrees below a boundary that's seperating the hot house and cool relief. San Antonio and surrounding south-central Texas communities are sweating and baking in the low to mid-100s. Whilst Dallas topped 107-degrees on Monday, it's high on Tuesday was only 97 degrees, the 110 degrees around Fort Worth, likewise was below the century mark yesterday thanks to the cold front pushing and squeezing down on the heat.
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
A Dangerous Flash Flooding Potential Southern California
Ken Clark, Western Expert, AccuWeather
Huge Temperature Changes Coming
Ken Clark, Western Expert, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 122 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 28 degrees at West Yellowstone, MT
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 69 degrees at Gravesend (Kent)
Low: 33 degrees at Katesbridge (Co Down)
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 65 degrees
Low: 45 degrees
TODAY'S COND
A generally clear and calm night with heavy dew forming as temps drop off under the clear, calm conditions allowing for the coolest night locally in a few months. A day of plentiful sun with patchy clouds, remaining dry and mild.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
No comments:
Post a Comment