Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Tourists wear protective face masks as they walk along the Red square in thick smog, with Saint Basil's Cathedral partially visible in the back, in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Aug. 6, 2010. The city of Moscow was shrouded Friday by a dense smog that grounded flights at international airports and seeped into homes and offices, as wildfires that have killed 50 people nationwide continued to burn. (AP Photo/Mikhail Metzel)
Photo courtesy of AccuWeather
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your america today forecast
by mark vogan
southern plains
100s continue under a blazing August sun from Dallas to Houston, westwards across to San Antonio. The high is getting a little more squeezed from north to east as a stalled front now sits not far north of Dallas but we're still going to see highs into the 97-98 degree range for Houston, 100-102 in Dallas, whilst further west upper 90s from San Antonio to Lubbock with Austin likely seeing those 100s today also. North of Dallas, showers and storms are likely to blossom, especially into the PM hours when, though cooler, cities from Kansas City to St Louis southwards towards the Metro OK City area should warm to near 90, perhaps 87-90 with some storms, some of which may become strong to severe. Lows tonight will fall down into the low 70s to the north whilst mid to upper 70s the further south towards the Gulf you head.
southwest
A return to a thicker, more pronounced marine layer will unfortunately drop those highsd and even limit sunshine today along the California coastline. Whilst the beaches may have a tough time getting out of the mid-60s!, Downtown San Diego and up to San Francisco may likewise be looking at a cool 67-68 degree high in both cities with the beaches merely rising from their morning lows perhaps to 65. Downtown LA may see a little more sunshine but there too it remains cool with a high of only 72. The downtowns of these three cities should see some PM sun whilst clouds and fog may linger on the immediate coastline. Further inland and the sun will be out and temps rising through the 80s in coastal valleys and canyons, including East Bay areas. The Central Valley should warm to the low 90s with upper 90s for Fresno in the south and Redding to the north. The Deserts will warm once again back into the low 100s with Las Vegas topping 105, Phoenix 108 and Death Valley 118. Lows range from mid-50s at the coast, 60 for the downtowns and 70s for the deserts.
northwest
A spark reduction in coastal and I-95 corridor highs today as a cold front moves in from the Pacific and behind it, a cooler push of air. Highs along the coast will be merely in the low to mid-60s! whilst Seattle only reaches near 72, Portland 78 after morning cloud and fog. East of the mtns and it's hot with 90s, even low 100s as this air remains hot, under high pressure and the front is well to the west. Some showers and storms are possible over western Montana and Idaho in association of the south flow from the Four Corners. Down by Salt Lake and Denver, it's going to be hot with highs around 90 in SL, but storms are possible over Denver, highs around 88-90 there. Lows drop generally into the 40s and 50s.
southeast & florida
A front has stalled across the Carolinas and Tennessee, south of this, hot and humid air continues to flow north bringing 90s across the board as well as a substantial thunderstorm risk for the afternoon as the air is very juicy and won't take much to get fired up once those temps push 90 by noon today, ESPECIALLY over the Carolinas, some may turn severe! Highs today around 93 for Atlanta, Low 76, Memphis 93, Low 76, Miami 91., Low 80, New Orleans 92, Low 79. Some are possible for everyone today!
northeast & mid-atlantic
A beautiful, mild and DRY air mass will progress northwest to southeast today for particularly interior areas, though warmer, soupier air will still be around with a chance of a few storms from DC to Boston and highs into the upper 80s, by tomorrow the air now over Buffalo, NY should be over the I-95 tomorrow bringing highs into the 70s and 80s.
northern plains
N/A
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Fire Danger High in the Southwest
By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist
Spotty Southern Storms Friday Night, Northern Plains Storms Saturday
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Back to School Time May Be Hot for Northeast
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
MOSCOW: HELL ON EARTH? A SERIES OF NATURAL EVENTS OR GLOBAL WARMING?
This summer, like (likely much worse) than last winter has been one of extremes! Is it the result of earth's "changing" climate which happens every few decades, even few hundred years? The warm AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the second strongest El Nino on record? The sharp cooling and warming within a weak Cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)? Whilst Scotland and northern England as well as north Wales and most of Ireland endure yet another relatively gloomy mid-point of summer with the past 4-6 weeks of persistent unsettled weather thanks to a large trough that's been sat parked over us, on either side of that trough lies powerful high pressure cells, likely charged by an El Nino warming.
Moscow's Hell
Fierce heat and some 600 wildfires raging throughout central and western Russia is almost providing an armagedon appearance throughout Russia's capital and it must be scary to be there right now.. Even like living day after day within a desert sandstorm, only it's air filled with smoke, fumes from vehicles which can't escape, other chemicals and pollutants as well as near desert-like heat.
I must ask the question however... Is this global warming? My theory is that this summer's conditions across this part of the world has been caused by the pattern during winter and spring, the abnormally dry conditions, created by El Nino during the winter and remember, it provided the same region with what was a cold, harsh Moscow winter and indeed Siberia endured their worst winter on record.. The combination of a large and intensifying high which started off over the UK and Western Europe from May through late June, the high high intensified and spread out, a trough began to grow and intensify over the North Atlantic and ultimately this trough began migrating east, southeast into Scotland, bringing an end to the dry, warm and sunny weather, meanwhile the high stood firm with 100s from Central Spain to France and across Germany, Mid-90s were felt in the Netherlands, upper 90s in Poland. At this point, Moscow was comfortable but indeed very dry and becoming very warm as the central Europe ridge began to spread over Western Russia. As we entered July, the trough dropped southeast, pushing the 90s and 100s east and the trough replaced the upper air flow from the Sahara into Europe more out of the NW, straight from the North Atlantic and Scotland, bringing mere 60s, 70s and at best low 80s to places in interior Europe that was sweltering. By the last couple of weeks of July, the trough was covering much of Europe in cool, unsettled weather. That core of heat had now been pushed all the way across to the Ukraine and Centrak Russia. THE STAGE WAS SET! One must remember that for Moscow to see 100s, we can't simply focus on the HIGH but more it's interaction with the trough to the west and the high's position. Whilst the core sat closely overhead to Moscow, mid-90s were being endured.. but it was only when the core was pushed further east by what to me was the DOMINANT TROUGH... The trough being the driver here! The intensity of the trough over Europe produced a strong push of SUPER HOT air straight from the deserts of the Middle East directly north into Moscow. The winds blowing around the high and the low was perfect. The drought over Russia helped keep the high and the warmth aloft hotter than normal and also, another key I believe in all this is the fact the Kuwait, Iraq, even Saudi Arabia were reported to have recieved their hottest reading's in history. THE AIR OVER THE DESERTS WAS PRIMED TO PERFECTION, THEN THE AIR PATTERN ALIGNED PERFECTLY FOR 100 DEGREE HEAT FOR MOSCOW!
The magnitude of both duration of 90s by day, with one or two topped 100 and sweltering nights in the mid-70s is harnessing these fires. These fires are driven by the intense heat, not the other way around!!
Devastating India and Pakistan Monsoon
Of course whilst the troughs and ridges dominate regions for lengthy time periods, the locked pattern has resulted in one of the most devastating monsoon seasons on record with Pakistan and portions of northern India enduring massive flooding and some 1,600 deaths across Pakistan and effecting an astonishing 12 million people. I believe it's the type of pattern this summer globally and it's part thanks to a strong El Nino which has markedly warmed the upper atmosphere, giving extra enhancement to high's and these high's which are stronger and therefore can hold ground easier and has the power to re-route surrounding weather systems. Enhancement of the Asian monsoon thanks to all the warmth across the hemisphere has aided in bringing such devastation, remember on the heels of an extraordinarily hot period from Feb through June!
Searing US Summer of 2010
The US of course has endured likely one of it's hottest on record from the Front Range eastwards. Though we have seen highs reach their warmest levels in 10 to 20 years over the Eastern Seaboard, in all honesty the actual numbers over the South is not completely unusual, HOWEVER, the amount of days measuring 5-10, even 15 degrees above normal in the hottest time of year is certainly something to behold and likely many locations, even states throughout the South are likely to have endured either the warmest July on record or warmest summer overall as the upper 90s to low 100s has been persistent as the high has been strong and unmovable this summer... Interestingly the West Coast has endured one of, if not thee coolest summer on record. Often you find that when you've a super high covering a large portion of one given area and when it's been as persistent as it has east of the Rockies, you find there must be a trough somewhere east or west of the ridge, that trough has been ruled by the ridge to it's east, stuck in place and can't go anywhere other than be stuck on the West Coast, therefore folks all the way down the California coast has endured a gloomy, cool and dissapointing summer, at the same time folks across the Plains and East will likely be glad to see fall arrive this year, in saying that I do think that we're going to perhaps see places such as San Diego and L.A. enjoy summer during winter. It may be a complete opposite this winter as warmth spreads acrosssouthern California (watch out for the 80s, 90s perhaps the odd 100) whilst very cold air and a large trough sets up over the heart of the US during Dec, Jan and Feb.
So, is this global warming or natural variability?
Personally I believe that over time, we see the planet's atmosphere react to ocean cycles and at this time the variation in SST's globally and the wild fluctuations between strong La Nina's and El Nino's are what's causing the wild weather and extremes! Back in the 1930s I read of extreme heat in the US (1936 was and still is the warmest July on record for the US), during exceptional periods of heat and drought, we saw in between winters which produced some of the coldest temperatures ever across the US... WILD SWINGS BETWEEN WARMTH AND COLD, Similar to 2010? Bare in mind, I do see this winter being severe for central Europe (including Moscow) as well as across the heart of North America. Alaska may see one of their worst winter's on record.... The Atlantic is still very warm and the Pacific cooling rapidly with the onset of the Las Nina, this will have a profound effect this winter where those troughs of Arctic air set up. From centralk Alaska to the Ohio Valley, watch out! One of the worst winters on record may occur!!!!
So, I believe we're talking natural and not global warming but again, this is my own personal view, I may be very wrong. I also believe that what Moscow is enduring now, has happened before, just not in our lifetime, before record's were kept!
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Trying to Find Troubled Weather
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
Will Colin Impact Newfoundland?
Brett Anderson, Canada Expert, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 117 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 28 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 73 degrees at Solent
Low: 42 degrees at Topcliffe
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 61 degrees
Low: 52 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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