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Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
BREAKING NEWS
Danielle likely to become a hurricane before today's out
1.20pm GMT
By Mark Vogan
Danielle now blowing sustained winds at 60mph and gusts beyond 70mph, this system appears to be reacting with a less sheared envirnoment and less dry air entrainment, meaning that it's becoming stronger and should become a hurricane (winds over 75mph) perhaps within the next 12 hours.
Danielle looks much healthier, more concentric as cloudtops rise and cool. As this system ramps up, tightens it's spin and grows more thunderstorms around it thanks to a drawing or pulling in of air at a faster rate from it's surrounding environment, winds will increase and pressures drop off.
It's over waters in the 80s and is tracking west, northwest. It is beginning to make me believe this system will remain a "fish storm" as it could well intensify quickly and if so, perhaps into a "major hurricane" in 48-hours, this will mean the storm grows much higher into the atmosphere, what's that mean? It will connect with the upper-level flow and the weakness in the ridge that's to the storm's north, therefore finding a way out and to the north. Had this storm been weaker and ultimately less "tall" within the atmosphere, it would be been more likely to not catch the trough that's pushing to the east away from North America and the Caribbean and therefore entered a much more dangerous and further west longitude that would have been more threatening to the US coastline.
Though it's overall envirnoment is good and waters are plenty warm for intensification over the central Tropical Atlantic, Danielle will have limited fuel for intensification as only once over the west-central Atlantic do waters be warmer (2-6 degrees higher than the central Atlantic) as well as deeper, therefore I don't see Danielle intensifying beyond a 120-mph cat 3 storm even if the shear drops off to near nothing around it. Had this storm been taking a course further west towards the Lesser Antilles, the Caribbean, Gulf and even off the US Eastern Seaboard would I be thinking tis storm could be aiming for cat 4 or even 5 strength, this is something to be considered for future storms that WILL not if form and get further west than what Danielle will. The US must be on guard as Danielle should be a wake-up call that this season has yet to begin proper.
As Joe Bastardi's puts it, the sounds of the band is beginning, now we're waiting for them to appear in full view.
IN OTHER NEWS TODAY
Flood warnings as heavy rain hits England and Wales
BBC Weather
Chaos as crowds flee Pakistan flood town
BBC Weather
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
southern plains
A VERY HOT day in store for the Southern Plains with potentially the highest readings of 2010 for such spots as Houston where I'm expecting a 102-degree high at Bush-Intercontinental Airport, Houston's "official recording site". Yesterday was also a hot day as although Bush Apt only topped 97 degrees, the Weather-Bug site in Downtown Houston recorded 104-degrees thanks to all the concrete and asphalt. Today we may see that particular site top over 105, even 106 today. As for Dallas we're looking for 105 like we saw yesterday and multiple 100s anywhere inland today basically. The coastal cities like Galveston will be hot with highs there too likely eyeing their highest values of summer with perhaps 98 degrees. From San Antonio to Lubbock I'm calling for 100-104, around 100 further west towards El Paso. 100 for Oklahoma City and Tulsa and even low 100s for Kansas and Nebraska. Showers and some strong storms are likely to blossom from east-central Texas down towards the Houston area throughout the morning and early PM hours as a weak front pushes south, this will bring showers and storms through Houston today, but don't let this fool you into thinking it's not going to be as hot, it's still very likely we'll see at least 100 and with heat index values over 110 this afternoon, it's going to be downright dangerous to be outside this afternoon. Lows tonight will cool into the relatively comfortable mid, even low 70s from Houston northwards thanks to drier air pushing down from the north, upper 70s for Houston and near 80, to low 80s along the Gulf Coast from Galveston to Brownsville.
southeast & florida
A rebuilding of high pressure and clearing out of the atmosphere after the persistent influences of Tropical Depression No 5, it's going to be sunny and hot for the interior Southeast today where I expect widespread low to mid-90s. Thunderstorm development will mostly be confined to coastal areas of the Gulf, across Florida thanks to sea breeze convergence and the Atlantic coast of the Carolinas as well as some mtns areas. I am calling for a high around 94 for Atlanta (low around 73 tonight), New Orleans 95 (Low around 78) with a chance of a thunderstorm, Memphis 96 (Low 79), Charleston 92 (Low 80), chance of a thunderstorm, Orlando 94 (Low 75) chance of a thunderstorm, Miami 90 (Low 80) chance of a thunderstorm.
northeast & mid-atlantic
Today will not be a great day to be outdoors across the Northeast due to an area of low pressure and associated heavy rains that will hold temperatures to the 80-82 range for DC and Baltimore, mid-70s for Philly, Trenton and up to New York City, whilst Boston will remain cool with a high only around 65 under very cloudy rainy skies for pretty much everywhere. Rains may be heavy and persistent at times along with blustery winds in the 15-25mph range, gusts beyond 30 along the coast. Look for lows tonight to drop into the 50s in outlying areas, 60s for the cities.
northwest
The Pacific Northwest will see a pleasant, sunny day for most places, even coastal areas, though some spots may remain under cloud and fog, highs will reach into the 60s along the coast (50s where it remains shubbornly cloudy or foggy), low 70s for Seattle, low 80s for Portland, 60s for the Cascade communities and 80s and 90s for areas east of the mtns. Lows tonight should fall into the 50s from the beaches to I-5 corridor, 30s and 40s over the mtns and 50s and 60s to the east.
southwest
Potentially, the next 2-4 days may produce the hottest weather of all from Southern California's coast to Coastal Valley and Canyons as High Pressure builds westward from Texas and the Four Corners as a trough will dig down from Canada. This will warm temperatures into the 80s, perhaps near 90 AT SOME BEACH COMMUNITIES such as Long Beach which may in fact warm towards the mid and upper 90s, I expect Huntington Beach up to Santa Monica to warm into the mid 80s, LAX into the low 90s whilst towards Downtown LA we may see a 100-degree high as both pressures rise over the Southland and easterly winds should enhance the heating process with downslope compressional warming off the Santa Anas and other coastal mountains chains that ring the LA Basin. Expect 105-110 in the San Fernando Valley where Woodland Hills may approach a sweltering 110 degrees. Lancaster and Palmdale in the Antelope Valley may warm towards the 110-mark aswell. Whilst Riverside may top 110. The deserts, though will be scorching, won't have as great a difference from what has been normal this summer as the core of high pressure remains similar to what we've seen over the desert, it's simply a fact that the ridge is pushing further west than what we've seen and therefore it's finally allowing some real heat towards the Ocean. The low desert communitites such as Palm Springs and Baker shoudl top near 112, whilst Barstow will warm to it's hottest with 110. The Central Valley should warm into the 100-105 range and with such cool weather across San Francisco Bay this summer, they, like the LA area will enjoy some sun and real warmth with downtown San Francisco warming into the 80s, east bay areas such as Oakland and Berkeley which tend to be exposed to marine flow that pushes in through the Golden Gate will see little if any marine influence and highs well into the 80s, if not 90s. Inland East Bay areas will see 100s for the first time this summer.
northern plains
With troughiness digging out of Saskatchewan and down into Montana, temperatures will be in the much cooler 60s and 70s, rather than yesterday's 90s and 100s of yesterday. The heat will be squeezed and winds will be blowing across the high plains, making for tricky driving on exposed, open routes over the Northern Rockies and eastwards onto the plains of the Dakotas, whilst the Dakotas will be cool with 70s, it will be another warm day for Minneapolis with a high near 90, but despite abundant sunshine for Chicago, it will be relatively cool but a perfect day to be outside where the high will top around 80 degrees, same from Detroit and the Ohio Valley. Expect warmer temps under brilliant sunshine for points further south with highs reaching around 90 for both Kansas City and St Louis. Expect lows to drop off into the 50s, even 40s for the N. Rockies and Dakotas, 60s for Minneapolis and Chicago and mid-70s for Kansas City across to St Louis..
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Wild Winds Punch Out Power in Salt Lake City
By Carly Porter, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
Damaging Thunderstorms to Rattle Minnesota to Kansas
By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist
More Rain to Drench New England
By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
Another Washout for Parts of UK, Why does it seem to becoming more common since the epic flood year of 2007?
Thanks to a trough that's driving cooler air down from the northwest and warm, moist sub-tropical air up from the southwest and meeting over southern Britain, this has released large amounts of heavy and persistent rains and with a fairly strong low acting as the epicentre to all this weather collision, strong winds are making the heavy rain worse anywhere from Newquay, Cornwall to Gravesend, kent.
So why all this wet weather during another dissapointing summer in the UK?
I believe it's got to be down to not as much El Nino or indeed La Nina but more the overall warm Atlantic Ocean which moistens up the air over the Atlantic and when you get that warm, moisture rich air to flow up against a cold front or spin into an area of low pressure, then you've got a lot of heavy rain.
It seems over recent years, since 2007 that rains, particularly heavy downpours are becoming regular and no I don't think for a minute it's global warming. I believe it's more likely the timeline of the cycle the Atlantic is currently in. You only have to look at the warm overall Atlantic and particularly how warm those waters are surrounding Britain. The trough has been persistent ever since it migrated from Iceland down across Scotland in late June and then across much of the Western portion of Europe in July that we saw the pattern change, that that ridging is trying to oush north from the Iberian penninsula, this is pushing those warm, moist winds north towards Britain and with a stalled boundary covering the heart of the Britain Isles, it's slamming against this atmospheric wall, all the warm, moist air piling up against this frontal boundary, acting as a "wall" is both intensifying low pressure pulses as they swing southeast from the North Atlantic and hit up against warmer, more humid air from the sub-tropics, this enhances the low pressure and ultimately produces heavier rain which we've been seeing more and more across the UK since the later half of July (started across Scotland) and now over Southern England which is far enough south, to be tapping the warmer air where highs have been persistently in the upper 70s to low 80s over the South from Oxford to Gravesend.
Why do torrential rains hit hard and rapidly during the later half of summer?
Just like the US often sees the most humid air in August, it's because surrounding waters are warmest and therefore release warm heat into the air during August or even September, the lower atmosphere transfer this heat into water vapor and therefore when weather systems converge and draw both cooler, drier air from the north and warmer, moister air from the south, the result is thundery downpours and often excessive rains which fall at rapid rates.
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Just a Video Today. I Talk about the Tropics and Storms in the Plains
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
Danielle Winding Up, Here Comes Earl?
Frank Strait, AccuWeather
At Last, a Western Pacific Tropical Storm
Jim Andrews, International Expert, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 116 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 19 degrees at Seneca, OR
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 58 degrees
Low: 55 degrees
TODAY'S COND
A wet day with persistent heavy rains.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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