Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Heat and smog double death rate in Moscow
CNN
Pakistan floods threaten key barrage in southern Sindh
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Dozens killed in landslides in China's Gansu province
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California's Coastal Summer That Wasn't
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Tropical Storm Dianmu Aimed for Korea
AccuWeather News
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
southern plains
For you folks of the Southern Plains, there's no change to your summer story, the heat resurges as the high once again builds over the Mid-Mississippi Valley, this will bring a chance of showers and storms to pretty much anywhere from New Orleans across to Houston, Little Rock, Dallas as the clockwise flow around the hot air pulls deep tropical moisture into the area, further north and west, your clear, fine, dry but very hot. Even where those storms are possibly (but now LIKELY) it will be hot and humid. Houston your calling for 98, Dallas 103, Little Rock 100 and OK City 101. Further west, San Antonio to Lubbock will push for 98, whilst 95 for Amarillo. Lows tonight range from 79 in Houston, 80 for Dallas, 80 for Little Rock and 77 for OK City. To the north up to the I-70, Kansas City to St Louis will once again surge into the 100-degree range with realfeels from Houston to St Louis pushing 110 to even 115, very dangerous indeed, stay in shade and drink lots of water folks!,
southeast & florida
With the position of the high over Tennessee, the shower and thunderstorm belt will be focused further south leaving much of the Deep South sunny today, but darn hot and humid! Thunderstorms that pop with daytime heating will likely be down towards the Gulf and Atlantic coast of the Carolinas, Georgia and of course Florida where strong and widespread thunderstorms are likely once highs creep into the low to mid-90s this afternoon. Showers and storms will likely flare once again along I-10 from Pensacola to New Orleans, further inland sunshine and highs pushing the mid-90s from Charlotte, through Atlanta and even near 100 for Montgomery to Jackson and 94-95 for New Orleans. Realfeels in spots will feel close to 110 or higher! Lows tonight may struggle to get below 75-78 in many places.
northeast & mid-atlantic
The hot, humid air from the Deep South has once again re-entered the region with showers and storms shifted to the north between Buffalo and Bangor, Further south, it's all about the haze, sunshine, heat and humidity that will sweat the Northeast, calling for highs this afternoon to 95 in DC, 94 for Philadelphia, 91 for Central Park, NY and even up to Boston, it will be warm with 88-89 degrees. Lows tonight, drop back to the 60s for rural areas, mid to upper 70s for the cities. Look for showers and storms across New England where the boundary will be drapped from the Lakes to Maine.
northern plains
The storm train continues with lots of energy flying over the Northern Plains and as the heating of the day kicks in, so too will strong to even severe storms fire up in the classic "ring of fire" pattern. So watch the sky if you live anywhere from the Dakotas to Illinois this afternoon. As well as plenty of storm threat today, especially for the Dakotas into Minnesota, there's going to be plenty of fuel as highs push the middle 90s for the Dakotas, as for Minnesota, highs should push 90 for Minneapolis as well as Chicago. Detroit, 85 whilst low 100s should bake southern IL into MO. Lows tonight should drop into the 60s for most rural areas, 70s for all major cities.
southwest
N/A
northwest
With that trough now over the region, we are looking for isolated showers to push in off the Pacific, possibly impacting Seattle down to Portland as well as a threat of showers further east today, and we shall see 50s at the coast, under cloud low 60s in the urban corridor whilst east of the mtns, it will be cooler with showers possible, highs may struggle to hit 80 in places today. Further east and south, showers and storms are possible from Billings down to Salt Lake and Denver where highs will only be into the mid-80s. Lows tonight range from the 50s to 60s.
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Rain Still Falling on Iowa Corn, Dry Autumn Needed
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Big Thunderstorms, Flooding Aim for Northern Plains
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Monday, August 09, 2010
An answer to a query from nt.
Putting it on the blog, as it is a very relevant topic, and worth discussing again.
I have given my views on this in an earlier blog, about 2 years back, when IMD had put up their "vague" estimate and forecast of the Monsoon that year.
And I don't mind repeating, as I do not expect readers to go thru the archives of "vagaries".
The fact, is, that , as nt correctly puts it, the IMD estimate should not be
referred to the whole of India. Our country is too vast and diverse, and the overall estimate of quantum is mis-leading and cannot depict the real picture at all.
If, say, like in this year as yet, we see the Bihar/Jharkhand/southern Bengal/Assam region in deficit. But we see the west like Gujarat/Maharashtra/ W.Rajasthan in excess. The south seems to be normal, with excess in T.N..
So, even if Bihar has a deficit of, say, -25%, and Gujarat has a surplus of ,say, +25%, the overall shows a normal rainfall. People in Gujarat will complain of excess, and Bihar will cry drought!
*( this forecast map is out of place,and write up is given below)*
IMD also has a regional forecast system intact, besides overall country rainfall.
For forecasting monsoon season rainfall over the four broad geographical regio
ns of India, NW India, Central India, South Peninsula and NE India, multiple regression (MR) models based on separate set of predictors are used. All the four multiple linear regression models have model errors of 8% of LPA. So, for regional, for an estimated 100% rainfall, anything from 92% to 108 % is normal ! Anything from 92%to 108% is "we told you so" ( quite a wide margin, and very easy to forecast with this yawning margin).
That's not all. The model error of the ( all India) April forecast system is 5% and for the June forecast system, it is 4%.
So even if overall it is +_ 5%, it is considered normal. So, if IMD gives a forecast of,say, 98%, any rainfall (overall), from 93% to 102% is "normal" as per IMD.
For issuing the forecast for the seasonal rainfall over the country, a new statistical forecasting system based on the ensemble technique is introduced in 2007. The 8 predictors considered for the new ensemble forecast system. For the April forecast, 5 predictors are used. For the updated forecast in June, 6 predictors that include 3 predictors (first 3 predictors ) are used.
I personally feel, that the previous system, where 16 parameters were used, was better, and more accurate. Results could be tallied.
Discussing the weather situation, we see a lull in the monsoon coming
this week, with the monsoon axis swiftly shifting north, into
the Himalayas. Lull for the regions south of the Himalayan foothills.
The regions , which would fall under the break monsoon shadow is shown in the IMD map as yellow, almost all over. An upper air cyclonic circulation has formed over northwest and Bay of Bengal between 3.1 and 5.8 km above mean sea level.As this UAC moves along the axis (still north bound), from the 11th, the areas around the axis would get active, and start getting good rainfall. *(IMD
map above)*.
Barring the T.N. coast, which could get some rainfall around the 13/14th, Break monsoon conditions likely to hold on in central regions, peninsula and south till15th. August.
The next MJO is due to activate in our region around the 20th, but things could move before that .
There are many variations and variable forecasts in different models, but, I pick up the one i feel is likely to be accurate and effective, and add a few of
my views and comments to that.
During the monsoon break, the day temperatures are expected to rise substantially.
For the Rajasthan, Haryana and some areas of Gujarat, the day could rise and go up to 38/39c. For the Maharastra a
reas, I estimate the days to be around 34/35c in the next week.
Proportionately, Bangalore should also
see a rise in the day temperature,to
mabe a little over 31c. B'Lore temp graph for last 2 months.------>
Mumbai: Very scattered passing showers this week. Sunny intervals, and "not much hindrance" from rains. Only few showers of short durations.Conditions of less than 10 mms of rain per day, Monday thru Friday. Good week to catch up on "rain affected" works. Days expected to be hot, at 32c.
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What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
A Change in the Pattern. The Heat Is Coming
Ken Clark, AccuWeather
Losing Daylight, But Not Losing Steam
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
Gulf of Mexico Development.... Severe Storms across the Northeast and Plains.
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Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 110 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 28 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 63 degrees
Low: 56 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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