31 August, 2010

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Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Monster Hurricane Earl remains on a dangerous course up the Eastern Seaboard
By Mark Vogan

8.30pm GMT Update: As strong Hurricane Earl continues to go through it's eyewall-replacement-cycle it is beginning to appear to have a better defined eye now and this is likely a sign that the eyewall replacement is near complete, once complete I think Earl will enter a window of oppertunity for intensification towards category 5 intensity as it continues it's northwest track towards the North Carolina coast. The track idea is basically not changed and by Thursday the system will be moving in close to the East Coast producing wind, rain and high surf. My big worry is that as this storm crosses the Gulf Stream as a category 5 storm which it has a chance of becoming over the next 24 to 36 hour period, then all the ABNORMALLY WARM WATERS surrounding the Gulf Stream which is flowing parallel up the East Coast, that the conditions are too good for any substantial weakening, the question is this, say by this time tomorrow (8.15pm GMT) Earl has become either a strong cat 4 or cat 5, as it remains over mid-80 degrees waters and a Gulf Stream of similar heat content but at much deeper levels (ultimately providing ever higher octane fuel) then is there a chance that Earl may be stronger than cat 3, say a moderate cat 4 (max winds of 140mph) say 150 miles offshore, does this thing have a Hugo impact? I am very concerned that the ridge to the north and finally east of Earl in the next 48 hours builds more than expected, therefore it has a greater chance of taking what could be a category 4 Hurricane Earl over the Outer Banks, ultimately bringing true devastation. Worse than Isabel.

Dry Air to the north of Earl may perhaps be a saving grace and may hold back on Earl's intensity somewhat, intensity of strong system when approaching the South and Mid-Atlantic coasts become more complec as continental effects begin to impact hurriceans on approach to the coast....

Tomorrow I shall provide you with the finer details of the track of Earl and intensity ideas on both a Video Presentation as well as Written Discussion right here... Stay tuned!

I shall not do a video today but hope to provide one tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Related Stories on Earl from AccuWeather

Earl's Strength to Fluctuate, Category 5 a Long Shot

Update: Hurricane Earl will Remain as a Cat 4 Hurricane

Earl to Threaten Nova Scotia, Newfoundland

From the National Hurricane Center

Hurricane EARL Public Advisory

Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion

Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather

How Northeast Should Prepare for Hurricane Earl
By Jesse Ferrell, Meteorologist/Community Director

Hawaii Drought Squeezes Agriculture, Water Supply
AccuWeather

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

A beautiful end to August but why such cold and even frosty, nights across Scotland and UK

Whilst my Indian Summer pattern kicks in on the tail end of August for the UK with a settled, calm and pleasantly pattern under an Anticyclone providing the all important sunny days, Nights to me are very cold for August, albeit the end of the month. I remember of recently times the first frost occuring in Mid-September but not when it's still be August. Sure, to the north over higher ground and under the right conditions, you can get frost in June, August, even July but for the lowlands of Scotland, the main population belt between Glasgow and Edinburgh dropping barely a couple of degree below freezing at this "still early" time of year is mighty impressive.

Last night I was in Mossend (east side of Glasgow) and skies couldn't be clearer over the Central Belt, winds could be lighter.. air dry enough and the mid-60 degree heat of the day soon radiated back to space. By 12.15 this morning I texted my wife asking her, what's the temperature back here in Lennoxtown? 42 degrees... I knew we're heading for the 30s and right enough this morning's low fell to an impressive late August level of 38 degrees here, that's 3C and enough to have created a light, patchy frost prior to sunrise this morning.

Skies throughout the Central Belt last night were perfectly clear and calm, all the way north to Inverness. I believe up between Dalwhinnie and Daviot, it must have dropped into the minus territory last night and this morning as frost was present and actually fairly heavy in spots, particularly around the Carrbridge area where I believe the colder, lowlying air collects well in that area where surrounding high-elevation hills slope gently. Dalwhinnie, the small settlement about 25 miles south of Aviemore and just north of Drumochter Summit also is high in elevation but with gently slopped hills running north, south, here it's often the coldest spot in all of the UK. Id guess that in the cold nooks between Dalwhinnie, Aviemore (though there was steam and fog) up to particuularly Carrbridge, which is often colder than even Aviemore, the low must have dropped towards -2 or even -3C this morning, that's down into the upper 20s F.

In all, I think it's the low numbers down here in the populated central Belt where it's gotten berely a degree or two above the freezing mark is most impressive, certainly for the end of what is considered a "true summer month".

Why so cold?

I wonder if it's not just the very clear skies and lack of wind, but the dryness of the atmosphere, allowing more heat to be radiated back to space, because last night, between 7.30 and 8.30pm, the temperature at my house had dropped from around 60 to 52 degrees (16 to 11C), daytime highs, though mild and pleasantly warm feeling in direct sunlight, isn't all that warm and summer air masses of warm, sub-tropical origin tend to weaker more at this latitude at this late stage in the year, therefore it won't take quite as much under the right conditions for the atmosphere to react on the air temperatures once you loose sunlight. Remembering that it's practically dark by 9pm and there's no daylight until 5am again, a substantial period of time in a relatively dry air mass and with absense of motion (wind) for the accummulated daytime heat to be mixed or turned over, holding the heat, a still air will draw heat from the ground and release it quickly back to space...

I also wonder whether the cold and dry northerly winds blowing just prior to the arrival of the high from the west, brought drier air down from the typically drier origins of the Arctic providing a drier air than normal, then once the high arrived and the conditions right, it allowed a lower drop than we typically see? That's another theiry I have as to why the normally milder Central Belt saw levels more typical in the Highlands.

It felt like November 1, not August 30th and certainly I was impressive by this late summer chill.

Nights won't be as cold from now on as this air mass is becoming moister thanks to the presense of Britain's surrounding waters, these air masses that remain in place become moister with time and indeed you'll notice nights remain milder than last night, also days may and are expected to become warmer with highs pushing or even surpassing 70 degrees (21C) across many areas of the Central Belt, providing skies remain clear enough. My high this afternoon under mostly clear skies topped a comfortable 67 degrees, one degree higher than yesterday and nearly 30 degrees off this mornings low of 38. Interestingly, the warmest spot in Britain yesterday was Eskdalemuir with a high of 70 degrees!

What's Reaching Today's Blogs?

Hurricane Earl Could Become Cat 5 - Stats
Jesse Ferrell;s AccuWeather

Hurricane Earl a Major Concern for the Maritimes
Brett Anderson, Canada Expert, AccuWeather

Here Comes Earl. Brace Yourself New England!
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 104 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 20 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA
Today's Extremes here at my house

High: 67 degrees
Low: 38.1 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

LA MER

Love from Southend... HD from Philip Bloom on Vimeo.

I remember as a little kid going to beaches like this on the New Jersey shore. Well, maybe not quite like this.

Fabulously honest camera work, sly editing, set to the tune La Mer by the great chanteur Charles Trénet.

 

Here's Charles Trénet singing his song himself later in his career. Apparently he wrote the song in 10 minutes in 1943 on toilet paper aboard a train running along the Mediterranean coast.

Bobby Darin did an English-language cover called Beyond the Sea in 1959. Totally different song.

The evolution continued with this video set to Beyond the Sea, sung by Robbie Williams.
 

Not the same song, except in name. A hypnotic beauty by Nine Inch Nails.

La Mer. from Sinpiggyhead on Vimeo.

An even more hypnotic stop-motion video of the NIN song.

Before there were talkies, Louis Lumière produced this 1895 silent film called La Mer.

La mer, she inspires us.

(Photo of Saintes-Maries-de-la-Mer, from here.)

30 August, 2010

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Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

**NEW HURRICANE EARL UPDATE AND VIDEO BY MARK VOGAN**
We Now Have "Major" Hurricane Earl

BREAKING NEWS: WINDS NOW UP TO 110MPH!
Hurricane Earl continues to organise and therefore intensify as it makes it's crossing over Northern Leewards en-route to the Western Atlantic, Cape Hattaras, even Cape Cod?

By Mark Vogan


As Category 2 Hurricane Earl makes it's closest approach to the Northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico right now, all interests on this storm continue to intensify as well as the actual storm over the populated US East Coast. What's worrying for me is that with each new run of the multiple computer models, their tracking FURTHER WEST and to be honest, if their correct, then the impact from Earl is becoming greater with each run. Even without a direct hit from Earl, what's a direct hit? When the core or eye crosses the coast, even a close-encounter with this strong system, say the eye passes by Cape Hattaras by even 50 to 100 miles, the hit will still have carried out along the coast bringing 100 mph + winds, flooding rains and heavy swells and even a storm surge onshore, remember the Carolina coast, which is very exposed, sticking out into the Atlantic like a sore thumb  will be on the "dirty side", meaning the strongest wind, greatest impact from wind, wave and precipitation WOULD impact the coast and the northeast quadrant of Earl's energy would wrap around the north side and slam onshore. There's no land to weaken or slow down those winds and driving those cat 3 winds over water has much less friction than land, making the overall impact from even a non-landfalling Earl very serious indeed.


HOW STRONG COULD EARL POTENTIALLY BECOME?


Well, right now the National Hurricane Center in Miami, are forecasting with their latest advisory, that winds will increase to a maximum of 130-mph sustained winds, that's CATEGORY 4 intensity and that's the problem the Outer Banks of North Carolina may be facing. As for Cape Cod, MA, well by the time and if Earl was to reach Cape Cod, it would be over cooler waters than off the Carolina coast, therefore one would say a weakening down to say 100-105mph winds would be likely, that would make Earl a category 2 storm. However, say Earl clips the Outer Banks as a cat 4 and commences a speeding up as it catches the westerlies, then a faster paced Earl running between Cape Hattaras and Cape Cod may mean a more powerful hit to the New England coast than one would think as it would have less time to weaken... you get what I mean?


Right now I think cat 4 is a pretty safe bet for Earl in waters between Puerto Rico and Charleston, SC. Not only are waters very warm (mid-80s) but with the presense of the Gulf Stream underneath the surface, stretching deeper than the surrounding water, then there's ample fuel for this system to continue at cat 4 or even cat 5 strength close to shore, but that is worst case... I'm not trying to scare folks, just showing the reality of the situation unfolding here.


I shall talk more about the other systems in the Atlantic later!


Stay tuned.

Latest Links on Earl



Northeast US not done with the heat just yet!
By Mark Vogan

A strong ridge of high pressure has returned to the Northeast US and pumping the heat up into the mid-90s once again from Washington to New York with even low 90s getting all the way up into Boston, this is at the same time, folks are becoming nervous about what may be brewing in the Atlantic and heading a little too close for comfort.


Just when you thought, all the heat and humidity of this long and tiring summer must be over, well it's not I'm affraid, for those that can't get enough of the heat, well it's your year! Highs yesterday were downright toasty and over the next few days they'll continue to soar to levels experienced yesterday where Washington topped 92, look for 95 there the next 3 days, Philadelphia saw 94 and likely you'll see more of that number, perhaps even 95 the next few whilst New York saw a hot 95, you too should see more 95's this week and amazingly, Boston reached an impressive 94 degrees yesterday, you folks will get more 90s but I would go as far as to say, yesterday was likely your hottest, I think it'll be more like 90-91 over the next 3 days for you guys.


IT WAS ALSO HOT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST YESTERDAY


Not only was the heat on in the Northeast yesterday but it was also on over the Northern Plains and down into the Lower Midwest where 94 degrees was reached at Minneapolis and a tie for the hottest this summer in Chicago which also topped out at 94 degrees. Kansas saw 95, Nebraska 96 whilst central South Dakota torched their way to 98 degrees. This all thanks to the trough driving that very chilly air down the West Coast which has pumped up the ridge over the center of the nation and east.


IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN HEAT, IT WAS COLD IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS


Whilst the trough continues to dig down into the Great Basin of the West and pumps that ridge to the east bringing all those toasty late summer temps further east, it was mere 60s for eastern Montana, that's quite a contrast to just east of there where highs where appraoch 100 degrees in the Dakotas, even greater contrast was the high of only 49 degrees at Cut Bank in northwest Montana where it was a miseribly wet and probably windy day up there with high elevation snows.

Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather

Record-Challenging Heat in the Northeast
By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist

US Open to Begin Hot, Less Humid
By Gina Cherundolo, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

Tropical Systems Bring East Coast Hazardous Beach Conditions
By Kirstie Hettinga, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

Dangerous Thunderstorms to Menace the Northern Plains
By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

Is this Britain's Indian Summer?

8.30pm UPDATE: Skies are very clear with no wind, current temperature now dropped to 55 degrees and cause there is no wind like there was at this time last night, it may be colder tonight than last as the lack of wind is providing a longer period of time for cooling.... My forecast high for my house is now down to 37 to 39 degrees with frost likely.
The Fall season is knocking on the UK's doorstep as days are sunny and pleasantly warm and nights growing crisp as those clear skies and light winds allow the heat by day to escape back to space under increasingly longer hours of darkness.

High's today have been very comfortable with a reading here at my house of 66 degrees and many areas across the Central Belt has enjoyed abundant sunshine, light winds and mild temperatures. This comes after a fairly chilly morning where lows crept into the 30s in many spots with isolated frost forming.

The air though mild today will grow cold, if not even colder than last night with spots likely taking a run at the freezing mark and this thanks to an Anticyclone that pushed in off the Atlantic yesterday is provising us with a classic Indian Summer pattern across the UK. At this time of year and with a dry air mass in place, it was nicely by day but with lower daytime temperatures combined with increased duration of darkness by night, temperatures can drop off quickly, particularly over sheltered rural areas outside of towns and city centres which hold the heat for longer thanks to heat from concrete and street lighting etc. Watch tonight and the next few nights whilst skies are clear and winds light those valleys of central and northern England, Wales and Scotland, especially those with gently slopped hillsides as temperatures drop fast beyond the 9pm hour when darkness is closing in and all that daytime heat is escaping back to the stars. Highs are likely to push a very pleasant and comfortable 70 degrees but grab that jacket if your out by evening as temps drop through the 50s, 40s and even into the 30s as heavy dew forms and even a light frosting on cars and blades of grass. I do expect the classic cold nooks of England, Wales and Northern Ireland to drop to freezing or even -1 or -2C and perhaps a -2 or -3C in the high elevation valleys of the Scottish Highlands where warm air rises  and cold air sinks down the valley walls and collecting at the bottoms..

BBC's forecast highs and lows for a selection of UK locales today...

Croydon (South London) 70 degrees (21C)
Portsmouth (Hampshire) 70 degrees (21C)

Sanquhar (Dumfries and Galloway) 39 degrees (4C)
Bowling (West Dumbartonshire) 37 degrees (3C)
Newry (Co Down) 37 degrees (3C)
Brecon (Powys) 36 degrees (2C)
Aviemore (Highlands) 36 degrees (2C)

Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia

Monday, August 30, 2010

The Vortex position. We see the original UAC in the Gulf and an additional elongated UAC south of Gujarat peninsula, stretching upto Mumbai. Now, that's an added UAC system, a bonus to the original one.


Resulted in good rainfall in Gujarat and North coastal Mah.

Some prominent Mah. rains as on today morning:Thane received 163 mms, S'Cruz 138 mms, Karjat 158 mms and Bhira 292 mms.

Intermittent rains continue in Mumbai today.

Detailed report of Gujarat rainfall and Mah. figures will be put up at 8 pm tonite.

Check out Rajesh's blog Here!


What's Reaching Today's Blogs?

How Big Will Hurricane Earl's Waves Get?
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

Hot
Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 105 degrees at Laredo, TX
Low: 25 Tuolumne Meadows, CA
Today's Extremes here at my house

High: 66 degrees
Low: 40 degrees

After a crisp, autumnal start, it was a glorious late summer's day with plentiful sunshine and warmth with only the odd patchy fair weather cumulus.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

SUNDAY POETRY: "SONG"

(Photo from here.)

SONG

by Thomas James Merton

 

The bottom of the sea has come   

And builded in my noiseless room   

The fishes’ and the mermaids’ home,

Whose it is most, most hell to be   

Out of the heavy-hanging sea

And in the thin, thin changeable air

Or unroom sleep some other where;   

But play their coral violins   

Where waters most lock music in:

The bottom of my room, the sea.

Full of voiceless curtaindeep

There mermaid somnambules come sleep   

Where fluted half-lights show the way,

And there, there lost orchestras play   

And down the many quarterlights come   

To the dim mirth of my aquadrome:   

The bottom of my sea, the room.

29 August, 2010

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Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

HURRICANE EARL
Leeward Islands to expect hurricane-force winds and torrential rains tonight
By Mark Vogan

As Earl pushes westwards through tonight, it will impact the northernmost Leeward Islands with hurricane-force winds and drenching, flooding rains as well as pounding surf. This system will progress west and turn northwest through the overnight hours and will likely bring some damage to property on those islands.... The US will need to be concerned as Earl continues it's west, northwest track over the next 48 to 72 hours as this system may approach the NC coast by midweek and it still can't be ruled out that Earl won't hit or grace the Outer Banks of North Carolina by late week as a category 3 storm. Stay tuned!

Awaiting the Development of a New Tropical Depression
AccuWeather News

May 3rd, 2010 frost in my front garden after a cold low of 30 degrees F! Patches of snow remained on the hills in front of my house on this date since the first accummulation way back on December 19th 2009, a period of nearly 5 straight months where snow patches lay permanent!

Unusually Harsh Conditions effecting the Scottish Highlands today! Windchills as low as -13C at the 900m level. Lows tonight, cold enough for frost!
By Mark Vogan

A howling north wind blowing down Scotland and England is bringing an unusually cold feel to the late August air and in fact as I just opened my window there, it actually feels more like October or November, than August 28th out there. When looking at the Cairngorm Mountain website, now only has fresh snow fallen on top of the peaks but winds are blasting in the severe-gale territory as well as savage windchills down to -13C at the 900 metre level, enough to provide frost bite!! This is thanks to a jet stream that is driving air from the far north all the way down Britain. The jet stream propelled flow is providing those stronger winds to gale-force over mountain tops of the Grampians and along exposed coasts and also pulling it fast enough, it doesn't have time to moderate the same way it normally would.

A departing Atlantic low and an arriving high to the west, has aligned the flow aloft to help make for these cold, windy conditions. At the 900 metre level, the raw level at which this air is straight from the Arctic in it's raw form, is not only producing snow showers over the peaks of the Grampians but is creating windchills down to -13C, yes enough to produce forstbite on exposed skin... Remember, our highest peaks are only  between 4,000 and 4,800ft above sea level and that is impressive.

The air at generally sea level to say 700ft isn't particularly cold as temps at low levels have crept into the low 60s (mid to upper 10s C) with Glasgow likely warming in sunshine and shelter from the wind to 18 or 19C but it's the north wind that's actually kinda creating a windchill even in urban, lowlying areas because of it's northerly origin. The clear, sunny skies is helping warm the surface somewhat but likely if it was cloudy and winds blowing from the north, we may have had a tough time getting into the 50s today (above 10C).

UNUSUAL AUGUST FROST VERY LIKELY TONIGHT

Tonight will be of particular interest to me, and to most others, a night to put on the heating.

Those howling winds of today will weaken and lighten up once the sun starts to set, skies that have had patchy cloud come and go will dissappear and we should see completely clear and starry skies by dark. Now as the air that those winds transported down from the north is in place over the country, I expect that as the night wares on and the calm, clear skies radiate daytime heat back to space, this should help allow the air that's very cold above to fall down to the surface and this "should" bring our temperatures down into the 30s and I do believe that we may have frost by morning even if actual temperatures don't hit freezing point. It only takes temps to drop into the 3-4C range for frost to form on exposed surfaces that cool easier or faster than other outdoor objects. Cars, blades of grass etc easily see their surfaces fall to freezing and frost to form on them, even if just 6-inches above the ground remains at 3-4C above freezing...

Sheltered, interior Highland Glens may actually see temperatures drop into the minus territory with lows in spots expected by me, to fall to around 28-30 degrees or -2 to -3C as air that sinks at night flows down the gentle slopping hillsides of some Glens. Those Glens that have sharp slopping hillsides, don't see cold air collect the same at the bottom of the Glens as the air excelerates down steeper hillsides and actually mixes the air, just like wind mixes and provides heat to the air...

So, tonight will be a test as to how low the temperature can go even within the Central Lowlands, we're still in the month of August and it would be amazing to see frost as early as this, I've seen some Mid-September mornings with frost but I don't remember it when we've still been in August...

It's all thanks to cold air being transported down via north winds behind a departing Atlantic low and ahead of a high pressure cell to the west, the jet stream itself was also transporting the colder Arctic origin air down and when it's nighttime and winds light, the heat from the warm surface is released back to space, and at the same time, colder air held in the mid to upper-levels can be pulled down with "sinking", remembering cold air is dense (heavier) than warm air, therefore explaining why heat escapes from the surface and cold air from above falls down to the surface..

Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather

Earl May Pass Dangerously Close to the U.S. East Coast
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

Severe Thunderstorms to Threaten Northern Plains
AccuWeather

Flooding Downpours Douse the Gulf Coast
By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

USA continues it's wait for a major hurricane landfall

Interestingly the US, despite devastating hits from such hurricanes as Ike in 2008, there has been no hurricane, including Ike that has struck US shores as a major hurricane. Wilma struck Florida in late October 2005 as a 120-mph storm, producing massive damage and was in fact one of the most costly hurriacnes in US history. Whilst Wilma hit Florida on the early hours of the Monday, if I can remember correctly, so I got married on the Friday (I can remember that, funnily enough) and since then, the US coast has not experienced a cat 3 storm which is pretty amazing. Those systems in 2008 though do be left in wonder as to whether there was a "major hit" when looking at the damage!

Anyway, when looking at the situation now in the Atlantic with Danielle which became a powerful category 4 storm and Earl ramping up and the system behind likely to become Fiona, one must wonder when the US coasts escape of cat 3 or greater hits luck will run out and I must say, given the pattern and set up at present, will the US escape a "major hit" even over the next 14 day period?

I can't help but wonder if Earl will track too close for comfort, it's LIKELY to become a major storm and given those water temperatures just off the Carolinas as well as the presence of the Gulf Stream, it's going to be a powerful hurricane nontheless roaming those waters between Bermuda and the US East Coast. As for Fiona to be, well a further west track looks obvious given the set-up and again, one must think a hurrucane and the development into a mjor one at that.

We shall wait and see. Stay tuned!

Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Summarising 28th August rainfall:


Mostly around the active vortex (UAC), and vigorous in Gujarat.

Some of the heaviest falls in cms.in Gujarat, West Mah. region as on 29th. morning:

Belapur (Thane) 12.7, Roha, Mahabaleshwar 11.9, Sidhpur 8.2, Harnai 8.0, Alibag 7.0, Panvel, Soegaon - 11 each, Srirampur, Kalyan, Vaduj - 10 each, Mahad, Tala, Harnai, Mandangad, Ulhasnagar - 8 each, Alibag, Bhira, Mangaon, Pali, Mhasala, Lanja, Thane, Ambarnath - 7 each.

Now, the current UAC, may linger around the North Mah.coast/South Gujarat coast till Tuesday. With this, I see rainfall continuing around this areas till Tuesday. Heaviest falls will be in the core of the UAC. So, in a way, I feel some heaviest rains could be expected in the Saurashtra areas and North Mah.coasts, but north of Mumbai.

South Gujarat shoulds get heavy rains on Monday and Tuesday.Maybe some heavy rain in

Bharuch on Monday/Tuesday.

For a brief look at the MJO situation, I directly quote from the Australian Buraeu: ""The MJO has displayed generally erratic behaviour, and has had perhaps the greatest influence on weather across southern Asia. Longer term, one would expect to see redevelopment of the MJ

O in the western Indian Ocean around early to mid-September. If this scenario were to play out, we would expect the increased risk of a reinvigoration of the Indian Monsoon, and increased potential for tropical cyclone development in the region".

Monsoon is in active phase as can be seen from the Indian Monsoon Index in the chart which shows above normal activity for the next two weeks:

ECMWRF forecasts another fresh UAC forming North of Mumbai on the 1st. of September,

tracking Northwards into Saurashtra coast, and fizzling out the very next day (2nd.Sept).

IMD sees a low in the bay by the 31st. I am not too optimistic on this low, not around this d

ate at least. Maybe a bit later, after the 4th. Sept. That's my reading of events.

I trust this Map of NCEP/GFS forecast to show the accumalated rainfall till 3rd. Sept.

See Full post HERE!
 

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 103 degrees at Yuma, AZ
Low: 28 degrees at Meacham, OR

Today's Extremes here at my house

High: 61 degrees
Low: 50 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

28 August, 2010

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Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

TROPICAL TROUBLES BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC

DANIELLE ON HER WAY OUT, BUT EARL AND FIONA (TO BE) MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY

As Danielle progresses north and has likely undergone an eyewall replacement cycle, she will basically graze Bermuda with windy conditions and high surf, however behind Danielle lies an intensifying Tropical Storm Earl that is a little further south, speeding along at 23 mph and will track further west. How far west remains to be seen and it is crucial for US interests as to how late Earl makes that turn towards the northwest and finally (hopefully) north. The slower Earl intensifies, the farther west Earl will track I believe. As we saw with Danielle, as soon as she became a strong hurricane, she than began that sharper turn towards the north, once Earl becomes a hurricane, that will commence that turn, but if it remains a relatively system then Earl may get into an area that will make it too late for that recurve and may pose a serious threat to the US East Coast but time will tell on that one of course.

The system also pushing away from Africa continues to look highly likely to become a depression and then a storm... Stay tuned for more on tomorrow's post!

Earl to Strengthen, Graze Caribbean Islands
AccuWeather News

Bermuda Escaping Worst of Danielle
AccuWeather News

IN OTHER NEWS TODAY

Double Flood Threat for Flood Wary China
AccuWeather News

After an Unsettled period and the passing of a southward moving cold front over Scotland, High Pressure will bring warm sun by day but potentially cold nights to come
By Mark Vogan

Under clear, calm skies, it's becoming ever more noticable that summer is coming to an end and despite warm days to come this week, the air will be dry enough and nights long enough under darkness that we are likely to see the coldest levels across Scotland as well as parts of northern and central England over the next few days since May when temperatures dropped to freezing. High Pressure building in from the Atlantic will likely bring glorious warm sunshine with highs across the Scottish Central Belt taking a run at 70 degrees in some areas, particularly during long, sunny spells and within town centres. However under the clear skies, light winds and large-scale sinking of air. This time of year is often cold by night under thr right conditions as the hours of darkness have increased considerably and days, though warm, often loose heat fast as soon as the sun drops below the horizon, therefore even across the urban Central Belt of the country from Glasgow to Edinburgh, we may see not only heavy dew under a starry moon-lit sky but even some patchy frost as temperatures plunge into the low 40s, even upper 30s (around 2-3C), these numbers are enough to support some light frost. Some sheltered highland glens of Scotland may see the first 20s since Spring. The coldest so far was just a couple of days ago when Altnaharra dropped off to -1C or 30F. It wouldn't surprise me if Dalwhinnie, Aviemore, Carrbridge, Tulloch Bridge, Braemar and other known Highland cold spots dropped to around -1 to -3C over the coming nights.

SIDE NOTE: My friend George who lives a few miles from Carrbridge near Aviemore emailed to say that fresh snow has fallen on Cairngorm Mountain... although, relatively high in elevation, it's still August... the next few nights are likely to get cold in the Highland Glens with lows below freezing in spots!

Today's Weather across America
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Northeast Heat to Build
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Weekend Cool Shot Targets the West
By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist

Drenching Storms Continue Across Gulf Coast
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Long-Term Rough Surf to Plague Atlantic Coast
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

LOOPING HURRICANES OFTEN HEAD FOR SCOTLAND AND UK
Is Danielle heading for Scotland?

More often than you'd think, tropical storms and hurricanes that recurve over the Western Atlantic often  take a long loop all the way around the central Atlantic Ocean. Born along the African Easterly Jet which runs east to west over Equatorial African and is created by hot, dry air over the Sahra that pushes south towards lower pressures equatorial rainforests, these thunderstorms blossom and push west towards the Atlantic, once over the Atlantic they organise into warm-core closed rotary circulations when atmospheric conditions are right. Then well west of the Cape Verde Islands, these waves often become depressions, storms and finally hurricanes, some turn north before getting too far west. What's too far west? Either when they enter the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. Once beyond a certain latitude, they usually hit land before or at the point of making a northward turn. Often they make that northward turn but still remain too far west to miss some sort of population.

Danielle will remain in the open Atlantic and is taking a classic recurve over the west-central Atlantic and will eventually head due north before catching the westerlies. Once at a certain latitude, both it's forward speed and turn becomes more prominant. Often what was a tropical (warm-cored) system becomes cold-cored and becomes baroclinic, the system transforms into what is known as an extra-tropical system and often it crosses the North Atlantic, full circle from eastern tropical Atlantic, thousands of miles across to the west central Atlantic, then turns and takes a long but faster journey over the cold North Atlantic and into the UK, bringing wind, rain and sometimes disruption.

Danielle may take a run at thr UK over the next 7-day period and if so, I shall take video.

What's Reaching Today's Blogs?

Pennsylvania 2010 Severe Weather Season Wrapup
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 108 degrees at Yuma, AZ
Low: 29 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA

Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

High: 69 degrees at St James's Park (Central London)
Low: 37 degrees at Katesbridge (Co Down)
Today's Extremes here at my house

High: 62 degrees
Low: 49 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

27 August, 2010

Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Category 4 Danielle beginning to give Bermuda the Jitters, showing us what may be lying ahead!
By Mark Vogan

DANIELLE STONGER THAN FIRST THOUGHT
Why did it rapidly intensify in an area less likely to do so?

Interestingly, Danielle rapidly intensified over an area that I did not think it would as waters though plenty warm (low to mid-80s) and the overall envirnoment good, I wonder whether there has been a little shear or dry air entrainment that has been holding Danielle back, if you remember this storm was up and down with it's intensity and then all of a sudden, the slow intensification all of a sudden become RAPID growing from cat 2 to 4 in a matter of one overnight period. So, why did this occur? Perhaps a little dry air or shear dissapation? I wonder because like already stated above, the waters are warm but not particularly so or particularly deep warm water either. In order to tap the truely bathtub waters you need to head further west towards the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico basins where waters are a few degrees warmer than the central Atlantic but not only that, their warmer to much deeper depths below the surface, particularly where the loop current is or the Gulf Stream. Perhaps there's a small current or eddy out further into the Atlantic where Danielle is positioned but my main theory is perhaps that a little shear and or, dry air has dissipated and allowed Danielle to flare up to a 135-mph hurricane.

DANIELLE LIKELY TO RUN EAST OF BERMUDA

It appears at this time that Danielle will not only slowly weaken probably back down to Cat 3 strength over the next 12 or so hours because it's not in a prime area for sustaining such power but it's likely to track east of the island of Bermuda, however, wobbling and a slight westward jog is all that's needed for a greater impact to Bermuda from Danielle and one must watch, particularly the east and north shores for high waves, perhaps even a little storm surge but it must be noted that a slight more westward track would mean stronger winds, heavier rains and bigger waves... Stay tuned!

EACH STORM THAT TRACKS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM AFRICA ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH SYSTEM, EARL AND FIONA (TO BE) LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO THREATEN THE US COAST

As you'll see from sat images, each system that spins off Africa and out over the Atlantic is tracking further south than the first, therefore this is something that needs to be watched carefully, why? Well, a further south track of a storm means it's less likely to catch troughs that drop down from the north and therefore their likely to keep progressing westwards, into not only warmer, deeper waters that can allow this to grow stronger and bigger but there is much higher potential for land impact and one must watch closely the tracking and movements of Earl and the system to it's east that will likely become Fiona through time. Both Earl and Fiona (to be) has a greater likelihood of tracking further west, missing the trough connection between the two High's and therefore the US may be under target for BOTH storms which once into the prime areas of the Western basin, they have a lot of heat toi become very strong systems if the upper atmosphere is conducive, which it likely will be.

TROPICAL LINKS

VIDEO: Danielle a Cat 4 and Earl still weak
Dan Kottlowski & Joe Sobel

MUST SEE VIDEO
See Hurricane Danielle from the Space Shuttle
AccuWeather

Long-Term Rough Surf to Plague Atlantic Coast
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather

Nice in the Northeast - Will it Last?
By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist

Downpours to Soak the Gulf Coast
By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist

Minor Weather Break May Aid Fight against Fires Out West
By Kirstie Hettinga, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

30 degree low at Altnaharra, Sutherland and 40s here illustrates the advancement of the season.

As summer wanes after another overall dissapointing season, nights are growing longer and under clear skies and light winds, the lengthening hours of darkness and weakening warmth of airmasses are showing at night as temperatures drop off. Fog is forming easier now as the temperature drops easier towards the dewmpoint and when both meet at the same level, fog forms.

With my job, I drive a truck between Bathgate and Inverness, a beautiful 4 hour hourney which takes me through the heart of the Scottish Highlands and also, from my point of view and interest of weather, it's a facinating route as the A9 passes within a mile or two of several well known cold spots within the Highlands. Whilst passing such spots as Dalwhinnie, Aviemore, Carrbridge I remember that these places got very cold during winter (-15 to -20C) and indeed these longer nights of darkness, their relatively high elevation within the "Glens" are the coldest spots in all of the UK and during the past few nights of driving up past these spots, heavy fog has formed as the cold air from the surrounding hills swoosh down at night, collecting at the bottom of these Glens and villages. Where the fog doesn't form and skies are clear and calm, the temperatures are nowing dropping in the 2-5C range, over the next few weeks it will likely fall to or below freezing when conditions are clear and calm.

Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia

Friday, August 27, 2010

Vortex of -40 over South Gujarat/N.Mah. coasts, and interior Mah..


The Northern suburbs of Mumbai recieved heavy thunder showers on Friday afternoon. Some of our readers have confirmed heavy afternoon rains at Chembur and Deonar. Mk informs of heavy rain from 2pm at Panvel.

The showers were patchy, but heavy in certain areas. The Southern city was dry, with no rain.

Some parts, like Dindoshi (Aarey) recieved 88 mms of rain within a two and a half hour time period, 3 pm to 5.30 pm, and 123 mms in the 12 hr period upto 9 pm.

Other areas with rain were: Chincholi 61 mms, Malad 49 mms, Deonar 40 mms, Airport 25 mms, Kandivali 22 mms.
 
See Rajesh's Blog HERE
 
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?

Hurricane Katrina Redux
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

The East Coast Can't Dodge the Tropical Bullet for Very Long
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather

Sunny and Warmer
Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 118 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 30 degrees at Boca Reservoir, CA
Today's Extremes here at my house

High: 65 degrees
Low: 46 degrees

A cool, clear start with some fog forming under the settled overnight conditions which gave way to a mostly sunny pleasant late summer afternoon.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

BIRTHRIGHT

BIRTHRIGHT from Sean Mullens on Vimeo.

Transcendence.

26 August, 2010

Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Hurricane Danielle approaching "Major" status, Earl likely to follow, queue of "Waves" lined up across African Continent and ready themselves for Trans-Atlantic journey
By Mark Vogan

As Danielle now has an eye and looks good on sat images, this system whilst has Bermuda on edge, it's all about just how active things have become across the tropics. You only have to look at the Atlantic AND across the African continent to see how active it's become. It's like it's fuel that's been ignited as each and every wave that's currently crossing the rainforests of equatorial Africa have a high chance of developing once out over the warm Atlantic. Three systems are worth watching closely.

DANIELLE

A system that's very likely to grow into a "major" hurricane at any time and may threaten Bermuda but there is still a chance this system tuyrns north and misses Bermuda to the east, but all it takes is for the high to the north of Danielle to stand ground more and may force a further west track of Danielle before the northward turn, therefore Bermuda may find itself in the path of a potential major hurricane.

EARL

Earl's likely to also become a "major" storm as it also track to the west but slightly further south than Danielle, therefore Bermuda may not only have to worry about Danielle but also Earl as the tracks and the pattern to the north of these systems currently have a weakness in the ridge and therefore depending upon timing the of trough existing the US and how far south these systems cross the Atlantic will deter when they make that crucial northward turn, at this time, I believe Earl may find itself making the turn LATER than Danielle and may end up tracking WEST of Bermuda between the North America continent and the island nation.

FIONA TO BE

The third system that's furthest east appears to be the system that I believe (this far out anyway) that has the biggest threat to the US and this one may be the one the East Coast or Gulf needs to worry most about.

Certainly Bermuda will be on it's guard over the next couple of weeks with potentially two "major" hits possible (worst case) and not only that but Africa looks lit up with waves crossing their continent and all three waves are strong, healthy and a good environment awaits them all out over the warm Atlantic waters.

Stay tuned!

Tropical Links

Watching for Fiona
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Both Danielle and Earl to Track Near Bermuda
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

Hurricane DANIELLE Public Advisory

Hurricane DANIELLE Forecast Discussion

IN OTHER US NEWS

Florida Doused with Heavy Rain
AccuWeather News

Record-Breaking Warm Streak in Little Rock
AccuWeather News

WORLD NEWS

Officials in flood-ravaged Pakistan urge 500,000 new evacuations
CNN

Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather

Powerful Winds to Precede Major Northwest Cooldown
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist


What's Reaching Today's Blogs?

Big Cooldown Expands--Relief from the Heat
Ken Clark, Western Expert, AccuWeather
Brazil Winter Drought Stronger than Usual
Jim Andrews, International Expert, AccuWeather

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 122 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 28 degrees at West Yellowstone, MT

Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

High: 72 degrees at Gravesend (Kent)
Low: 30 degrees at Altnaharra (Sutherland)

Today's Extremes here at my house

High: 64 degrees
Low: 46 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

AUGUST WITH MONK SEALS

August / Agosto from Rafa Herrero on Vimeo.

This lovely short film is an example of what I like about the new world we're living in. A filmmaker gets to make his or her own film. That's all. There's no one telling him or her what should go into it or be left out of it. 

Consequently, the ecosystem of online videos is slowly evolving to include these uniquely quiet and powerful voices. 

Which turns out to be a perfect compliment for this film's subject: monk seals. In particular, Mediterranean monk seals, Monachus monachus (Greek monachos: solitary; Latin monachus: monk). The Mediterranean monk seals in this film live far from the Mediterranean on the Atlantic coast of Mauritania, in the region around Cap Blanc, known in Arabic as Ras Nouadhibou. They've survived here against all odds thanks to nearly inaccessible caves—some have entrances only underwater—in inaccessible cliffs on unpeopled coastlines.

This range map from Wikimedia Commons shows the surviving colonies of Mediterranean monk seals, including Cap Blanc in the lower left.

This species was well known to the people of the ancient civilizations of the Mediterranean. In his Historia Animālium, Aristotle wrote extensively about wildlife. But he struggled to understand what seals were all about:

The seal is a kind of imperfect or crippled quadruped; for just behind the shoulder-blade its front feet are placed, resembling hands, like the front paws of the bear; for they are furnished with five toes, and each of the toes has three flexions and a nail of inconsiderable size. The hind feet are also furnished with five toes; in their flexions and nails they resemble the front feet, and in shape they resemble a fish's tail.

Aristotle, btw, thought women were deformed men.

The Sierra Club Handbook of Seals and Sirenians says that even in recent times in Athos—a self-governed monastic state in Greece accessible only by boat—monks used the skins of monk seals to make belts.

Today the Mediterranean monk seal is listed as critically endangered on the IUCN Red List. It's one of the rarest mammals on Earth with less than 500 living individuals. The largest surviving colony had been found, though not easily, in the citadel of the Mauritanian caves. But these holdouts from monks and men were hard hit by a die-off in 1997 that killed 200 of 300 seals. No one's sure why. Maybe a virus. Maybe a toxic algal bloom. They've slowly recovered to about 130 today. Yet the die-off may have reduced their genetic diversity by some 12 percent, to a point where they can't reproduce fast enough to overcome random events that effect survival. The IUCN notes impressive efforts to save the Mediterranean monk seal:

However, all of the actions have been insufficient to change the overall declining trend of this species. Most conservation initiatives occur only on paper and do not translate into real and effective conservation action in the field. As a consequence, most of the small subpopulations that survived three decades ago, when conservation of the species was already identified as being a priority, are now extinct. Today, human encroachment of haul-out habitat, adverse interactions with fisheries and impoverished genetic variability are the main threats affecting the species. Unless there is urgent action, the extinction risk of the species is high.

(Photo from Arkive.)

The soundtrack of the film is fascinating. Surely these seals were the Sirens who tried to lure sailors to wreck and ruin? Jason and the Argonauts would have died if Orpheus had not been along on the voyage. Hearing the Sirens' songs, Orpheus drew his lyre, played his own exquisite music, and prevented the Argonauts from jumping overboard and drowning. Maybe that's where we get the phrase drowned out.

The Siren, by John William Waterhouse, circa 1900, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.