(From here.)
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
1 July, 2010
You can follow this Blog on Facebook and Twitter
Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
FOR THE NEWEST, MOST UP-TO-DATE INFO, SCROLL DOWN THROUGH THIS POST!
CHECK OUT THE FACEBOOK FANPAGE FOR A SPECIAL HURRICANE ALEX VIDEO BLOG BY MARK VOGAN NOW AVAILABLE
IMAGE COURTESY OF THE BBC
Mark Vogan's Hurricane Alex Coverage at (6.30am)
Hurricane Alex slams ashore in northern Mexico with 105mph winds
STRONGEST JUNE HURRICANE SINCE ALMA OF 1966
By Mark Vogan
As expected by some, Hurricane Alex rapidly lowered it's pressure to 947mb and those winds did eventually respond to the lowering of pressure within the center. Alex's roared ashore around 10pm ET within a sparsely populated area of Soto La Marina which is on the northeast Mexican coast, roughly 35 miles north of La Pesca, Mexico and 110 miles south of Brownville, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were thought to have been around 105mph at landfall. Hurricane-force winds did indeed remain "south" of the Rio Grande, however tropical storm-force winds extended 205 miles out from the center and therefore a persistent pounding of storm-force winds and torrential rains impacted Brownville, Harlingen and all the way up to near Corpus Cristi.
WHY DID ALEX INTENSIFY UP TO LANDFALL?
1) WELL ORGANISED CIRCULATION
2) VERY WARM WESTERN GULF WATERS
3) VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND A GOOD UPPER RIDGE OVER TOP OF THE STORM.
NEW ORLEANS AND THE OIL SPILL
For the past 24 or so hours now, heavy showers and strong thunderstorms have pushed onshore along the central Gulf Coast with Alex associated weather reaching as far nortth and east as the Florida panhandle. The gusty winds blowing north is unfortunately pushing the oil onshore from western Louisiana likely to the Alabama or even Florida coast, this of course isn't good news.
Increased moisture has kept the New Orleans area mostly cloudy with periods of heavy thunderstorms, gusty windy conditions and a reduction in temperature due to increase cloudiness and rainfall which likely have dumped 2-4 inch rains from southeast Texas all the way to Alabama and the Florida panhandle, despite Alex being over 500 miles away from New Orleans.
Yesterday's highs in the South.
MEDIA NEWS FEEDS:
Hurricane Alex Continues to Impact South Texas
AccuWeather Hurricane Center
Hurricane Alex makes landfall off northeastern Mexico coast
CNN
IMPORTANT INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
Hurricane ALEX Public Advisory
Hurricane ALEX Forecast Discussion
NEW INFORMATION AND MORE AS OF 4.50PM GMT:
Hurricane Alex Makes Landfall
The Weather Channel
Hurricane Alex has made landfall in northeastern Mexico.
GRAPHICS COURTESY OF THE WEATHER CHANNEL
Location: Municipality of Soto La Marina around 110 miles south of Brownsville, TX
Time: 9 PM CDT
Category: 2
Winds: 105 mph
Pressure: 947 mb
Hurricane Alex drenches Mexico's northern coast
Associated Press/Weather Channel
SAN FERNANDO, Mexico (AP) -- Hurricane Alex ripped off roofs, flooded streets and forced thousands of people to flee coastal fishing villages as it pushed into northern Mexico.
The Atlantic season's first hurricane largely spared nearby Texas, which had prepared for a possible direct hit. While it spawned two tornadoes and caused 1,000 people to evacuated low-lying areas there, state officials reported no injuries or major damages.
Earlier, Alex whipped up high waves that frustrated oil-spill cleanup efforts on the other side of the Gulf of Mexico and delivered tar balls and globs of crude onto already soiled beaches.
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
northeast
A simply gorgeous first day of July and what more could you ask for? Abundant sunshine, low humidity and highs of 80 for Washington DC, 79 in Baltimore, 78 in Philadelphia, 77 in New York and 73 in Boston. With a dry, Canadian high in place with a very comfortable day, the nightime temps will be even more comfortable with 65 degrees for DC and Baltimore, 65 for Philadelphia and 64 for New York with 50s in Boston.... We may even see a few 40s and even 30s across interior New England since the air is pretty dry.
southeast
The influence of the large trough now over the eastern half of the nation is allowing lots if sunshine and comfortable highs throughout the Southeast. Only the Gulf coast and as usual Florida will see thunderstorm development. Highs today will bearound 86 for Atlanta with sunshine, lows around 72 whilst New Orleans has an increased storm risk as usual for the time of year with a high around 83 degrees which is below normal and quite nice compared to recent times. Lows in N.O. shuld hover around 74 degrees tonight with storms lingering. Florida will see storm chances throughout the state with highs ranging from 86 and lows of 75 at Jacksonville to highs of 90 at Orando and lows of 74 to Miami with highs around 91, lows around 78-80.
southwest & northwest
Sunny and hot is the name of the game... Highs are expected to top 107 for Las Vegas and 111 for Phoneix with lows in the low to mid-80s.... 70s along the coast, 80s and 90s for inland valleys...
southern plains
A relatively cool day from south Texas with daytime 80s and temps as low as upper 70s for northwest Texas. Highs around 90 for Dallas.
northern plains
A day in the low to mid-80s across the board...
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Heat Wave Brewing for the East Independence Day Weekend
AccuWeather
Alex Slams South Texas with Flooding Rain, Wind, Tornadoes
AccuWeather
Winds over Oil Spill Shifting with Alex
AccuWeather
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
AFTER MID TO UPPER 90s OF LATE AND NOW A REFRESHING AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE, HOW HOT WILL THE EXPECTED HEAT WAVE OF NEXT WEEK BE FROM WASHINGTON TO BOSTON?
TURN OFF THE AC AND OPEN THOSE WINDOWS
After I-95 morning lows in the low to mid-60s with even some 50s in rural areas away from the urban heat island, it was a stunning day with plenty of sun and highs generally in the mid-70 to 81 degree range. You really couldn't ask for better folks in this area at this time of the year. A cool, Canadian high pressure cell dominates, keeping the refreshing and much drier air flow down from Ontario.Those pleasantly warm days with low 70s along the shore cool quickly at night due to the "dry air" and we see lows fall away during the overnight.
GET READY TO TURN ON THE AC, AGAIN!
Unfortunately today will be one that's history soon enough as the warmer, sub-tropical flow begins to crank up over the weekend and the warmth will build BIG TIME... July 4th weekend promises to be a scorcher and we may be looking at dew points again in the mid-70s at times and highs that hit the mid-90s from DC to New York on Sat-Sun and perhaps a run at 100 for Mon-Tues... Realfeels in the 105-110 range is very likely indeed with highs expected to top between 98-102 degrees Monday through Wednesday next week. Lows are likely to fail to drop below 80 degrees in the cities at night so make sure that AC is in good working order...
Reaching Today's Blogs?
Hurricane Alex Mexico Flooding Similar to Gilbert?
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 116 degrees at Gila Bend, AZ
Low: 24 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 82 degrees at Santon Downham
Low: 46 degrees at Baltasound
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 69 degrees
Low: 58 degrees
TODAY'S COND
A fairly cool but humid day with overcast skies and with periods of heavy showers throughout the day, clearing by mid-afternoon and allowing some sunny spells as well as some warming. The unsettled weather continues of a trough is sitting just to the northwest, however with high pressure and heat persisting over central and southern England, central Scotland is right under the boundary between cool and warm air masses..
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
FOR THE NEWEST, MOST UP-TO-DATE INFO, SCROLL DOWN THROUGH THIS POST!
CHECK OUT THE FACEBOOK FANPAGE FOR A SPECIAL HURRICANE ALEX VIDEO BLOG BY MARK VOGAN NOW AVAILABLE
IMAGE COURTESY OF THE BBC
Hurricane Alex slams ashore in northern Mexico with 105mph winds
STRONGEST JUNE HURRICANE SINCE ALMA OF 1966
By Mark Vogan
As expected by some, Hurricane Alex rapidly lowered it's pressure to 947mb and those winds did eventually respond to the lowering of pressure within the center. Alex's roared ashore around 10pm ET within a sparsely populated area of Soto La Marina which is on the northeast Mexican coast, roughly 35 miles north of La Pesca, Mexico and 110 miles south of Brownville, Texas. Maximum sustained winds were thought to have been around 105mph at landfall. Hurricane-force winds did indeed remain "south" of the Rio Grande, however tropical storm-force winds extended 205 miles out from the center and therefore a persistent pounding of storm-force winds and torrential rains impacted Brownville, Harlingen and all the way up to near Corpus Cristi.
WHY DID ALEX INTENSIFY UP TO LANDFALL?
1) WELL ORGANISED CIRCULATION
2) VERY WARM WESTERN GULF WATERS
3) VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ALOFT AND A GOOD UPPER RIDGE OVER TOP OF THE STORM.
NEW ORLEANS AND THE OIL SPILL
For the past 24 or so hours now, heavy showers and strong thunderstorms have pushed onshore along the central Gulf Coast with Alex associated weather reaching as far nortth and east as the Florida panhandle. The gusty winds blowing north is unfortunately pushing the oil onshore from western Louisiana likely to the Alabama or even Florida coast, this of course isn't good news.
Increased moisture has kept the New Orleans area mostly cloudy with periods of heavy thunderstorms, gusty windy conditions and a reduction in temperature due to increase cloudiness and rainfall which likely have dumped 2-4 inch rains from southeast Texas all the way to Alabama and the Florida panhandle, despite Alex being over 500 miles away from New Orleans.
Yesterday's highs in the South.
MEDIA NEWS FEEDS:
Hurricane Alex Continues to Impact South Texas
AccuWeather Hurricane Center
Hurricane Alex makes landfall off northeastern Mexico coast
CNN
IMPORTANT INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
Hurricane ALEX Public Advisory
Hurricane ALEX Forecast Discussion
NEW INFORMATION AND MORE AS OF 4.50PM GMT:
Hurricane Alex Makes Landfall
The Weather Channel
Hurricane Alex has made landfall in northeastern Mexico.
GRAPHICS COURTESY OF THE WEATHER CHANNEL
Location: Municipality of Soto La Marina around 110 miles south of Brownsville, TX
Time: 9 PM CDT
Category: 2
Winds: 105 mph
Pressure: 947 mb
Hurricane Alex drenches Mexico's northern coast
Associated Press/Weather Channel
SAN FERNANDO, Mexico (AP) -- Hurricane Alex ripped off roofs, flooded streets and forced thousands of people to flee coastal fishing villages as it pushed into northern Mexico.
The Atlantic season's first hurricane largely spared nearby Texas, which had prepared for a possible direct hit. While it spawned two tornadoes and caused 1,000 people to evacuated low-lying areas there, state officials reported no injuries or major damages.
Earlier, Alex whipped up high waves that frustrated oil-spill cleanup efforts on the other side of the Gulf of Mexico and delivered tar balls and globs of crude onto already soiled beaches.
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
northeast
A simply gorgeous first day of July and what more could you ask for? Abundant sunshine, low humidity and highs of 80 for Washington DC, 79 in Baltimore, 78 in Philadelphia, 77 in New York and 73 in Boston. With a dry, Canadian high in place with a very comfortable day, the nightime temps will be even more comfortable with 65 degrees for DC and Baltimore, 65 for Philadelphia and 64 for New York with 50s in Boston.... We may even see a few 40s and even 30s across interior New England since the air is pretty dry.
southeast
The influence of the large trough now over the eastern half of the nation is allowing lots if sunshine and comfortable highs throughout the Southeast. Only the Gulf coast and as usual Florida will see thunderstorm development. Highs today will bearound 86 for Atlanta with sunshine, lows around 72 whilst New Orleans has an increased storm risk as usual for the time of year with a high around 83 degrees which is below normal and quite nice compared to recent times. Lows in N.O. shuld hover around 74 degrees tonight with storms lingering. Florida will see storm chances throughout the state with highs ranging from 86 and lows of 75 at Jacksonville to highs of 90 at Orando and lows of 74 to Miami with highs around 91, lows around 78-80.
southwest & northwest
Sunny and hot is the name of the game... Highs are expected to top 107 for Las Vegas and 111 for Phoneix with lows in the low to mid-80s.... 70s along the coast, 80s and 90s for inland valleys...
southern plains
A relatively cool day from south Texas with daytime 80s and temps as low as upper 70s for northwest Texas. Highs around 90 for Dallas.
northern plains
A day in the low to mid-80s across the board...
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Heat Wave Brewing for the East Independence Day Weekend
AccuWeather
Alex Slams South Texas with Flooding Rain, Wind, Tornadoes
AccuWeather
Winds over Oil Spill Shifting with Alex
AccuWeather
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
AFTER MID TO UPPER 90s OF LATE AND NOW A REFRESHING AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE, HOW HOT WILL THE EXPECTED HEAT WAVE OF NEXT WEEK BE FROM WASHINGTON TO BOSTON?
TURN OFF THE AC AND OPEN THOSE WINDOWS
After I-95 morning lows in the low to mid-60s with even some 50s in rural areas away from the urban heat island, it was a stunning day with plenty of sun and highs generally in the mid-70 to 81 degree range. You really couldn't ask for better folks in this area at this time of the year. A cool, Canadian high pressure cell dominates, keeping the refreshing and much drier air flow down from Ontario.Those pleasantly warm days with low 70s along the shore cool quickly at night due to the "dry air" and we see lows fall away during the overnight.
GET READY TO TURN ON THE AC, AGAIN!
Unfortunately today will be one that's history soon enough as the warmer, sub-tropical flow begins to crank up over the weekend and the warmth will build BIG TIME... July 4th weekend promises to be a scorcher and we may be looking at dew points again in the mid-70s at times and highs that hit the mid-90s from DC to New York on Sat-Sun and perhaps a run at 100 for Mon-Tues... Realfeels in the 105-110 range is very likely indeed with highs expected to top between 98-102 degrees Monday through Wednesday next week. Lows are likely to fail to drop below 80 degrees in the cities at night so make sure that AC is in good working order...
Reaching Today's Blogs?
Hurricane Alex Mexico Flooding Similar to Gilbert?
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 116 degrees at Gila Bend, AZ
Low: 24 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 82 degrees at Santon Downham
Low: 46 degrees at Baltasound
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 69 degrees
Low: 58 degrees
TODAY'S COND
A fairly cool but humid day with overcast skies and with periods of heavy showers throughout the day, clearing by mid-afternoon and allowing some sunny spells as well as some warming. The unsettled weather continues of a trough is sitting just to the northwest, however with high pressure and heat persisting over central and southern England, central Scotland is right under the boundary between cool and warm air masses..
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
30 June, 2010
You can follow this Blog on Facebook and Twitter, Become a Fan and Follower Today!
Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Special Early Editon Blog with Updates and Coverage of Hurricane Alex's Mexican landfall starting at 6am GMT tomorrow..... A special Hurricane Alex Video blog will be recorded by Mark Vogan tomorrow morning on the Facebook Fanpage....
BREAKING NEWS FROM ALEX AT 10.30PM GMT:
NOW A 90-MPH HURRICANE AIMING FOR LA PESCO, MEXICO, EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT EASTERN TIME....
MARK VOGAN'S HURRICANE ALEX COVERAGE
Hurricane Alex continues to organize and intensify as it aims for the north Mexico coast
LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
LOCATION...23.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
WORTH WHILE LINKS FROM THE NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY
EXPERT DISCUSSION
-By Mark Vogan
Hurricane Alex is expected tonight to make a northeast Mexico landfall sometime near Midnight ET as a Category 2 storm as the system continues to organise and intensify within it's inner core over the very warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico, waters are around 85-86 degrees and the upper atmospheric environment is very conducive for further intensification over the next 12-hour time window before it reaches land. Alex's central pressure is currently at 961mb with maximum sustained winds at 80mph, usually when pressures drop like we've seen, wind speeds sometimes take some time after the pressure drop to respond. It looks likely that this storm will have winds sustained at around 100 to 105mph by the time the eye reaches the northeast Mexican coast, thankfully, the area at which the storm will cross is fairly low in population and a remote area of Mexico between Matamoros and Santander which is inland....
LANDFALL REGION INFO: COMING SOON!
ALL GRAPHICS COURTESY OF THE WEATHER CHANNEL
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
southwest & northwest
A hot a typical day in the last day of June with highs around 107 and lows around 80 for Las Vegas, hi's around 110 and lows around 85 for Phoenix and indeed 115+ degrees for Death Valley. As usual the coast will see morning fog and low cloud with lows around 60, whilst burn arrives by late morning/early afternoon, sea breeze kicks in with highs around 70-75 degrees for the coast, 80 for downtown LA down to San Diego and 90s to low 100s for inland empire and other inland valleys and basins. As for the northwest, it's cool along the coast with 50s and 60s at the beaches to cities of Seattle and Tacoma, near 75 for Portland, whilst east of the mountains it 's near 80s for eastern WA and OR.. Montana should see highs top around 90 for Billings with a chance of PM storms. A hot, sunny day from Salt Lake down to Denver with highs in the mid-90s!
southeast
A day which see a final return to normal across the entire Southeast, strong storms run onshore along the Gulf Coast as a result of Alex's outer bands, this is holding highs to the mid-80s for New Orleans to Pensacola today whilst inland the same story as a cold front has pushed temps down to also the mid to upper 80s from Shreveport to Atlanta with a 40 to 50% chance of thunderstorms. Lows are in the low 70s for the interior of the region, upper 70s nearer the Gulf coast.
northeast
A stunningly beautiful and sunny day across the entire Northeast after the brutally hot days and nights of recent days. The front has completely cleaned out the Northeast airspace and held highs today near 80 degrees in Washington and remarkably only between 76-78 from Philadelphia to New York City. What a difference. Lows will be as low as near 60 degrees throughout the region under clear skies and indeed drier air which will allow temps to fall away after dark tonight.
northern plains
With the western Dakotas enduring mid-90s and brutal sunshien this afternoon. as you head into Minnesota on south and east towards Chicago, it's sunny, relatively low in humidity and highs are barely topping 75 degrees from MSP to CHI to Detroit... Lows are genenerally in the 50s and 60s!
southern plains
Like in the north as well as the south and eastern US, the air has been cleaned out considerably. Though there is a good chance of thunderstorms throughout Texas and Oklahoma today, highs are held in the mid to upper 80s from Houston to Amarillo, both as a result of moisture flowing up from Alex as well as the influennce of thr trough now drapped into the eastern US. Lows should be in the upper 70s near the coast to mid and even low 70s for most inland areas, some spots may be lucky enough to fall into the 60s tonight..
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
VIDEO: The Worst Conditions Now Coming into Brownsville
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
VIDEO: Hurricane Alex Approaching Mexico. Brownsville Getting Hit!
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
US East and South Heat clears out
After lows in the upper 70s to low 80s from DC to Boston of recent days and highs well into the 90s. A cold front and behind it, a cooler, drier and more refreshing Canadian high has dropped well into the eastern half of the US, carving a much cleaning and easier to breathe air mass down as far south as Memphis and Atlanta and has pushed the Bermuda high way off the East Coast. This allowed highs to fall into the upper 70s to around 80, even down to DC and Baltimore, WHAT A CHANGE INDEED!! Lows? try 60s! wow. It will cool at night thanks to drier air, which cools better than moist air, moisture of course retains heat, so after mere 70s for highs from DC, Balt, Philly, NYC and Boston, lows may even fall into the 50s for Boston and New England with a potential for some 40s across interior New England, whilst low 60s for lows all the way to Virginia... Emjoy it whilst you can, this refreshing cooler air won't last!
80s continue for southern England, 70s, cloud and mugginess hold across Scotland.
Highs today and yesterday rose into the mid 70s here in Lennoxtown and throughout the central belt. Some sun shawn today but it remained cloudy yesterday, though it was cloudy it was warm and humid, making it feel subtropical indeed. The air is still of Azores origin, but Scotland and further north remain under the boundary between low pressure and a cool pocket off the NW coast and where warm, moist air continues to feed up from the south. 80s remain in control from Birmingham to London... This air will continue to hold up until the weekend!
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
June 2010 is over and done with. The story of the Monsoon till end June is vague and haphazard. A stunted progress, and a completely distorted movement.
The monsoon set in over Kerala on May 31 and reached Mumbai on 11 June. A day early, and a date late to the normal dates.
It covered the northeastern states slightly earlier than the normal time, but reached Kolkata only on June 13, about a week later than normal.
As of Tuesday, the monsoon has reached up to central and east India, as per the Monsoon limit line in the IMD map.
Rainfall activity being reported from most of the areas covered are not too uniform, and are sporadic and scanty in the Gujarat region. (Shall put up the monsoon performance map/report till end June as soon as it is published by IMD).
Maharashtra is still on the "pre-monsoon " stage, with thundershowers developing, specially over North Mah. region, every afternoon,but pouring heavy rains in very isolated pockets, and clearing by the the morning.
Read our partner blog in full HERE
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 117 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 31 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 80 degrees at Heathrow (Greater London)
Low: 40 degrees at Tulloch Bridge (Highland)
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 73 degrees
Low: 55 degrees
TODAY'S COND
Sunnier further west across Ayrshire, where grasses are very brown and this is one of the driest areas of the country! It became cloudier as the day wore on but no rain fell..
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Special Early Editon Blog with Updates and Coverage of Hurricane Alex's Mexican landfall starting at 6am GMT tomorrow..... A special Hurricane Alex Video blog will be recorded by Mark Vogan tomorrow morning on the Facebook Fanpage....
BREAKING NEWS FROM ALEX AT 10.30PM GMT:
NOW A 90-MPH HURRICANE AIMING FOR LA PESCO, MEXICO, EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT EASTERN TIME....
Hurricane Alex continues to organize and intensify as it aims for the north Mexico coast
LOCATION...23.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES
WORTH WHILE LINKS FROM THE NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY
EXPERT DISCUSSION
-By Mark Vogan
Hurricane Alex is expected tonight to make a northeast Mexico landfall sometime near Midnight ET as a Category 2 storm as the system continues to organise and intensify within it's inner core over the very warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico, waters are around 85-86 degrees and the upper atmospheric environment is very conducive for further intensification over the next 12-hour time window before it reaches land. Alex's central pressure is currently at 961mb with maximum sustained winds at 80mph, usually when pressures drop like we've seen, wind speeds sometimes take some time after the pressure drop to respond. It looks likely that this storm will have winds sustained at around 100 to 105mph by the time the eye reaches the northeast Mexican coast, thankfully, the area at which the storm will cross is fairly low in population and a remote area of Mexico between Matamoros and Santander which is inland....
LANDFALL REGION INFO: COMING SOON!
ALL GRAPHICS COURTESY OF THE WEATHER CHANNEL
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
southwest & northwest
A hot a typical day in the last day of June with highs around 107 and lows around 80 for Las Vegas, hi's around 110 and lows around 85 for Phoenix and indeed 115+ degrees for Death Valley. As usual the coast will see morning fog and low cloud with lows around 60, whilst burn arrives by late morning/early afternoon, sea breeze kicks in with highs around 70-75 degrees for the coast, 80 for downtown LA down to San Diego and 90s to low 100s for inland empire and other inland valleys and basins. As for the northwest, it's cool along the coast with 50s and 60s at the beaches to cities of Seattle and Tacoma, near 75 for Portland, whilst east of the mountains it 's near 80s for eastern WA and OR.. Montana should see highs top around 90 for Billings with a chance of PM storms. A hot, sunny day from Salt Lake down to Denver with highs in the mid-90s!
southeast
A day which see a final return to normal across the entire Southeast, strong storms run onshore along the Gulf Coast as a result of Alex's outer bands, this is holding highs to the mid-80s for New Orleans to Pensacola today whilst inland the same story as a cold front has pushed temps down to also the mid to upper 80s from Shreveport to Atlanta with a 40 to 50% chance of thunderstorms. Lows are in the low 70s for the interior of the region, upper 70s nearer the Gulf coast.
northeast
A stunningly beautiful and sunny day across the entire Northeast after the brutally hot days and nights of recent days. The front has completely cleaned out the Northeast airspace and held highs today near 80 degrees in Washington and remarkably only between 76-78 from Philadelphia to New York City. What a difference. Lows will be as low as near 60 degrees throughout the region under clear skies and indeed drier air which will allow temps to fall away after dark tonight.
northern plains
With the western Dakotas enduring mid-90s and brutal sunshien this afternoon. as you head into Minnesota on south and east towards Chicago, it's sunny, relatively low in humidity and highs are barely topping 75 degrees from MSP to CHI to Detroit... Lows are genenerally in the 50s and 60s!
southern plains
Like in the north as well as the south and eastern US, the air has been cleaned out considerably. Though there is a good chance of thunderstorms throughout Texas and Oklahoma today, highs are held in the mid to upper 80s from Houston to Amarillo, both as a result of moisture flowing up from Alex as well as the influennce of thr trough now drapped into the eastern US. Lows should be in the upper 70s near the coast to mid and even low 70s for most inland areas, some spots may be lucky enough to fall into the 60s tonight..
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
VIDEO: The Worst Conditions Now Coming into Brownsville
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
VIDEO: Hurricane Alex Approaching Mexico. Brownsville Getting Hit!
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
US East and South Heat clears out
After lows in the upper 70s to low 80s from DC to Boston of recent days and highs well into the 90s. A cold front and behind it, a cooler, drier and more refreshing Canadian high has dropped well into the eastern half of the US, carving a much cleaning and easier to breathe air mass down as far south as Memphis and Atlanta and has pushed the Bermuda high way off the East Coast. This allowed highs to fall into the upper 70s to around 80, even down to DC and Baltimore, WHAT A CHANGE INDEED!! Lows? try 60s! wow. It will cool at night thanks to drier air, which cools better than moist air, moisture of course retains heat, so after mere 70s for highs from DC, Balt, Philly, NYC and Boston, lows may even fall into the 50s for Boston and New England with a potential for some 40s across interior New England, whilst low 60s for lows all the way to Virginia... Emjoy it whilst you can, this refreshing cooler air won't last!
80s continue for southern England, 70s, cloud and mugginess hold across Scotland.
Highs today and yesterday rose into the mid 70s here in Lennoxtown and throughout the central belt. Some sun shawn today but it remained cloudy yesterday, though it was cloudy it was warm and humid, making it feel subtropical indeed. The air is still of Azores origin, but Scotland and further north remain under the boundary between low pressure and a cool pocket off the NW coast and where warm, moist air continues to feed up from the south. 80s remain in control from Birmingham to London... This air will continue to hold up until the weekend!
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
June 2010 is over and done with. The story of the Monsoon till end June is vague and haphazard. A stunted progress, and a completely distorted movement.
The monsoon set in over Kerala on May 31 and reached Mumbai on 11 June. A day early, and a date late to the normal dates.
It covered the northeastern states slightly earlier than the normal time, but reached Kolkata only on June 13, about a week later than normal.
As of Tuesday, the monsoon has reached up to central and east India, as per the Monsoon limit line in the IMD map.
Rainfall activity being reported from most of the areas covered are not too uniform, and are sporadic and scanty in the Gujarat region. (Shall put up the monsoon performance map/report till end June as soon as it is published by IMD).
Maharashtra is still on the "pre-monsoon " stage, with thundershowers developing, specially over North Mah. region, every afternoon,but pouring heavy rains in very isolated pockets, and clearing by the the morning.
Read our partner blog in full HERE
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 117 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 31 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 80 degrees at Heathrow (Greater London)
Low: 40 degrees at Tulloch Bridge (Highland)
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 73 degrees
Low: 55 degrees
TODAY'S COND
Sunnier further west across Ayrshire, where grasses are very brown and this is one of the driest areas of the country! It became cloudier as the day wore on but no rain fell..
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
UNDERWATER
Sometimes what I work on really gets me down.
This video buoyed me up.
(Again, the experience is way better if you watch the HD video at Vimeo.)
This video buoyed me up.
(Again, the experience is way better if you watch the HD video at Vimeo.)
(Photo from here.)
29 June, 2010
You can follow this Blog on Facebook and Twitter, Become a Fan and Follower today!
Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
BREAKING INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010
...ALEX BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN MEXICO...
EXPERT DISCUSSION FROM NHC
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
981 MB AT 1716 UTC...WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND
SFMR WINDS NEAR 55 KT. SINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
ALEX IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. THIS
PATTERN YIELDS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION NEAR 0000 UTC WILL
FIND THAT ALEX IS A HURRICANE.
ALEX HAS TURNED FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
310/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY...AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ALEX WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
HAS TURNED LEFT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK STILL LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE ONLY
DYNAMICAL MODEL NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE HWRF. THUS...
THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IF
NECESSARY.
ALEX IS NOW IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL
LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION IS POOR AT THIS TIME...AND LARGE SLOTS BETWEEN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS STILL
OCCURRING. THE GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF ARE SHOWING MORE
INTENSIFICATION THAN EARLIER...BUT NONE OF THEM FORECAST A PEAK
INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 80 KT. THESE MODELS ARE CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...SO THERE IS
NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE
FORECAST... IT IS LIKELY THAT ALEX WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
80-85 KT BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HR FORECAST
POINTS.
READ IN FULL HERE
Hurricane Season 2010
Latest on Tropical Storm Alex
By Mark Vogan
Tropical Storm Alex continues to swirl in a northwest direction towards the northeast Mexican coast as also threatens the lower Texas coast. Questions continue to be asked.. will this system effect the oil still in the north-central Gulf significantly, will this storm hit South Texas and at what strength? As of this moment, it appears to me, that this stom first and foremost will have the greatest impact within the first 100 miles from the TX-MEX border, southwwards into Mexico, however 20 to as much as 50 miles north along the lower Texas coast with Brownsville as the greatest threat on the US side could recieve a large impact, even areas as far north as Corpus Christi may be impacted with a 3-way combo of wind, flooding rains and wave action.
I predict Alex to become at least a strong Category 1 hurricane by midday Wednesday and perhaps a category 2 storm before a late Wednesday night landfall.
LATEST NEWS ITEMS ON ALEX FROM ACCUWEATHER.COM
ACCUVIDEOS TODAY
Effects of Alex on South Texas
By Ken Reeves
Alex Will Be Dangerous for People of South Texas
Brownsville Prepares for Alex
Tropical Storm in the Gulf Could Halt Oil Spill Cleanup Operations
OTHER NEWS HEADLINES TODAY
Southern China Battles Rain, Northern China Faces Fires
AccuWeather News
Full reservoirs mean South East of England hosepipe ban unlikely
BBC Weather
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
northeast
The recent 90s that have spread throughout the Northeast will continue today under mostly sunny but increasingly hazy skies as the Bermuda ridge and it's strong surface warming is forcing the vast amount of traffic that link these great cities to make poor quality as ground level ozone builds, however, a cold front will swing through this evening drawing cooler and drier air in for a much more comfortable day tomorrow! Afternoon thunderstorms may fire up late tonight as the arrival of cooler, drier air push through the big cities along the front. After near 80-degree lows again this morning, it will cool to the low and mid-60s by tomorrow morning, what a delight!
Mark's City-Cast as follows: Washington DC, Hi 94, Lo 69, Baltimore, Md, Hi 92, Lo 64, Philadelphia, Pa, Hi 92, Lo 66, New York, Ny, Hi 90, Lo 65, Boston, Ma, Hi 92, Lo 63.
southeast
It's going to be FANTASTIC this afternoon, yes there will be a substantial storm chance once again today, but the air will feel great!, well for the Gulf Coast it will anyway... Inland or 40-50 miles north of the Gulf Coast, it's going to be hot again with a 50% plus chance for afternoon thunderstorms for areas from Baton Rouge to Atlanta where highs should touch 90, A cold front is pushing down from the north and this should not only aid in increase storm chance today across northern and central Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and into the Carolinas, but will cool highs tomorrow, the air will be drier as well as pushing out the torrid heat. Highs may only hit the 80s tomorrow, rather than the 90s like we've seen for weeks now across the entire Southeast region.
WHY is it cooler near the Gulf Coast today, yet the cold front is way north? ALEX is spinning outer rain and cloud bands onshore to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and as far east as Florida's panhandle. The increase in wind and cloud as well as heavy rain showers progressing onshore throughout today and tonight is holding highs generally to the mid-80s, lows will still be in the mid-70s as the air is still very humid, perhaps making it remain uncomfortable outside, despite the cooler air temps.
Mark's City-Cast as follows: New Orleans, La, Hi 86, Lo 78 (heavy showers, cloudy), Atlanta, Ga, Hi 91, Lo 70 (PM or evening t-storms), Orlando, Fl, Hi 90, Lo 75 (PM t-storms), Tampa, Fl, Hi 90, Lo 79 (PM t-storms), Miami, Fl, Hi 90, Lo 80 (storms likely).
southwest
Another very hot, dry and beautifully sunny day throughout the entire West, perhaps a few scattered cumulus clouds over the Rockies but those will not produce rainfall. Highs expected today range from 60s and 70s for the Pacific beaches, 80s from LA to eastern suburbs of San Diego, 90s for the inland valleys and canyons as well as the Central Valley of California. As for the deserts, the low deserts should top the 110-115 range (lows in the low to upper 70s) and 105-110 for the high-elevation Mojave desert. Phoenix should be very warm but perhaps a little off yesterdays low 110s with around 110 today and a Low by morning of 84, Las Vegas should hit 107, perhaps even 108 and by morning, fall to around 84. Death Valley should warm to around 120 this afternoon, falling to around 105 by 10pm tonight, 95 by 1am, 88 by 4am and finally dipping to around 85 by 5am...
northwest
Though it will be another very sunny or mostly sunny day from Seattle to Portland and on eastwards into the Great Basin, highs will be cool, MUCH cooler for the coastal plain with only a high around 63 for Seattle, mid-70s for Portland, however EAST of the mountains it's going to be a hot one with highs well into the 90s for eastern Washington, Oregon and in and around 100 degrees for northern Utah, low 100s for southern Utah (106 for St George). Salt Lake may top 99, Denver a little cooler but a blazing sun and no cloud, hi around 92. Boise will be cool compared with yesterday 102. Hi today should be around 93-94. Reno, also cooler with high around 95 rather than 100. Even areas of Montana is likely to hit 100 today including Billings and Glasgow. Glasgow may in fact reach 105 this afternoon!
southern plains
A tropical feeling day with heavy showers and storms likely from midday throughout the rest of today as a front progresses south, raising moisture levels and therefore storm chance across all of Oklahoma and Texas. Highs remain warm with actually the hottest air being more south than north with Houston likely to top around 93 and Dallas may only top 88-90. Lows as usual will remain near 80 along the immediate Gulf Coast communities of Texas, mid-70s for Houston and points 20-50 miles inland from the Gulf and low to mid-70s for interior areas.
northern plains
Glasgow, Mt will top the 100s as the western high pushes north, the outher periphery of this high will push highs in the western Dakotas into the mid-80s, whilst far eastern Dakotas on eastwards will have a markedly different, cooler and more refreshing air mass. From Minneapolis to Chicago to Detroit, comfortably low humidity, 100% sunshine and low temperatures will exist as the Canadian high which is progressing as far south as Atlanta by this evening is holding highs across the region to only 70-75 degrees! Not bad for the end of June, enjoy this while you can as this is a rare summertime airmass... Note the vastly cooler air for St Louis with only low 80s today and lows down to near 60 degrees!!
Mark's City-Cast as follows: Minot, ND, Hi 85, Lo 65, Minneapolis, MN 72, Lo 62, Chicago, Il, Hi 75, Lo 57, Detroit, Mi, Hi 74, Lo 52. St Louis, Mo, 82, Lo 61.
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Alex to Start Impacting Brownsville Wednesday before Landfall
AccuWeather
VIDEO: Eastern Storms Gone, Turning Cooler
AccuWeather
Severe Thunderstorms Impacting Carolinas, Northern Rockies
AccuWeather
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
DOES THE UK HEAT CONTINUE?
After a peak high at Gravesend, Kent of 30.9C or 88 degrees F, the southern half of the UK and particularly the Greater London urban heat island continues to see very warm, settled weather with highs continuing to surpass the 80-degree mark. Yesterday saw a high of 84 degrees whilst to the north and across Scotland as well as N. Ireland, we see slightly cooler, cloudier and more unsettled weather as an area of low pressure effects pressure heights over the northern UK... Incidentally, yesterday cool 67-degree high here was warmed today to a muggy 75 degrees as the warmth pushes north. Tomorrow we may see more sunshine and indeed I expect highs to oush the mid-70s again before another shot of cooler weather digs down bringing an increased rainfall risk. 80s are likely to continue for the next 2-3 days down across the southern half of the British Isles.
Does the current warmth continue?
It appears to be a pattern in which a trough and cool pool of air will press against the Azores high down, stubbornly forcing dropping pressure heights over Scotland, N. Ireland and the north of England through at least the next 5-10 days. This will continue to keep a more unsettled patterns and therefore rain is possible on a regular basis.
As for England's southern half, it appears the upper 70s to mid-80s is likely to continue as this part of the country will be just in the right spot for the continued influence of the Azores High northern periphery, keeping highs above average.. I expect highs of at least 80 up until at least Saturday!
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 83 degrees at Heathrow (Greater London)
Low: 42 degrees at Dalwhinnie (Highland)
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 75 degrees
Low: 56 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
BREAKING INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010
...ALEX BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN MEXICO...
EXPERT DISCUSSION FROM NHC
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
981 MB AT 1716 UTC...WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND
SFMR WINDS NEAR 55 KT. SINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
ALEX IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. THIS
PATTERN YIELDS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION NEAR 0000 UTC WILL
FIND THAT ALEX IS A HURRICANE.
ALEX HAS TURNED FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
310/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY...AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ALEX WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
HAS TURNED LEFT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK STILL LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE ONLY
DYNAMICAL MODEL NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE HWRF. THUS...
THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IF
NECESSARY.
ALEX IS NOW IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL
LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION IS POOR AT THIS TIME...AND LARGE SLOTS BETWEEN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS STILL
OCCURRING. THE GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF ARE SHOWING MORE
INTENSIFICATION THAN EARLIER...BUT NONE OF THEM FORECAST A PEAK
INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 80 KT. THESE MODELS ARE CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...SO THERE IS
NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE
FORECAST... IT IS LIKELY THAT ALEX WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
80-85 KT BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HR FORECAST
POINTS.
READ IN FULL HERE
Hurricane Season 2010
Latest on Tropical Storm Alex
By Mark Vogan
Tropical Storm Alex continues to swirl in a northwest direction towards the northeast Mexican coast as also threatens the lower Texas coast. Questions continue to be asked.. will this system effect the oil still in the north-central Gulf significantly, will this storm hit South Texas and at what strength? As of this moment, it appears to me, that this stom first and foremost will have the greatest impact within the first 100 miles from the TX-MEX border, southwwards into Mexico, however 20 to as much as 50 miles north along the lower Texas coast with Brownsville as the greatest threat on the US side could recieve a large impact, even areas as far north as Corpus Christi may be impacted with a 3-way combo of wind, flooding rains and wave action.
I predict Alex to become at least a strong Category 1 hurricane by midday Wednesday and perhaps a category 2 storm before a late Wednesday night landfall.
LATEST NEWS ITEMS ON ALEX FROM ACCUWEATHER.COM
ACCUVIDEOS TODAY
Effects of Alex on South Texas
By Ken Reeves
Alex Will Be Dangerous for People of South Texas
Brownsville Prepares for Alex
Tropical Storm in the Gulf Could Halt Oil Spill Cleanup Operations
OTHER NEWS HEADLINES TODAY
Southern China Battles Rain, Northern China Faces Fires
AccuWeather News
Full reservoirs mean South East of England hosepipe ban unlikely
BBC Weather
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
northeast
The recent 90s that have spread throughout the Northeast will continue today under mostly sunny but increasingly hazy skies as the Bermuda ridge and it's strong surface warming is forcing the vast amount of traffic that link these great cities to make poor quality as ground level ozone builds, however, a cold front will swing through this evening drawing cooler and drier air in for a much more comfortable day tomorrow! Afternoon thunderstorms may fire up late tonight as the arrival of cooler, drier air push through the big cities along the front. After near 80-degree lows again this morning, it will cool to the low and mid-60s by tomorrow morning, what a delight!
Mark's City-Cast as follows: Washington DC, Hi 94, Lo 69, Baltimore, Md, Hi 92, Lo 64, Philadelphia, Pa, Hi 92, Lo 66, New York, Ny, Hi 90, Lo 65, Boston, Ma, Hi 92, Lo 63.
southeast
It's going to be FANTASTIC this afternoon, yes there will be a substantial storm chance once again today, but the air will feel great!, well for the Gulf Coast it will anyway... Inland or 40-50 miles north of the Gulf Coast, it's going to be hot again with a 50% plus chance for afternoon thunderstorms for areas from Baton Rouge to Atlanta where highs should touch 90, A cold front is pushing down from the north and this should not only aid in increase storm chance today across northern and central Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and into the Carolinas, but will cool highs tomorrow, the air will be drier as well as pushing out the torrid heat. Highs may only hit the 80s tomorrow, rather than the 90s like we've seen for weeks now across the entire Southeast region.
WHY is it cooler near the Gulf Coast today, yet the cold front is way north? ALEX is spinning outer rain and cloud bands onshore to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and as far east as Florida's panhandle. The increase in wind and cloud as well as heavy rain showers progressing onshore throughout today and tonight is holding highs generally to the mid-80s, lows will still be in the mid-70s as the air is still very humid, perhaps making it remain uncomfortable outside, despite the cooler air temps.
Mark's City-Cast as follows: New Orleans, La, Hi 86, Lo 78 (heavy showers, cloudy), Atlanta, Ga, Hi 91, Lo 70 (PM or evening t-storms), Orlando, Fl, Hi 90, Lo 75 (PM t-storms), Tampa, Fl, Hi 90, Lo 79 (PM t-storms), Miami, Fl, Hi 90, Lo 80 (storms likely).
southwest
Another very hot, dry and beautifully sunny day throughout the entire West, perhaps a few scattered cumulus clouds over the Rockies but those will not produce rainfall. Highs expected today range from 60s and 70s for the Pacific beaches, 80s from LA to eastern suburbs of San Diego, 90s for the inland valleys and canyons as well as the Central Valley of California. As for the deserts, the low deserts should top the 110-115 range (lows in the low to upper 70s) and 105-110 for the high-elevation Mojave desert. Phoenix should be very warm but perhaps a little off yesterdays low 110s with around 110 today and a Low by morning of 84, Las Vegas should hit 107, perhaps even 108 and by morning, fall to around 84. Death Valley should warm to around 120 this afternoon, falling to around 105 by 10pm tonight, 95 by 1am, 88 by 4am and finally dipping to around 85 by 5am...
northwest
Though it will be another very sunny or mostly sunny day from Seattle to Portland and on eastwards into the Great Basin, highs will be cool, MUCH cooler for the coastal plain with only a high around 63 for Seattle, mid-70s for Portland, however EAST of the mountains it's going to be a hot one with highs well into the 90s for eastern Washington, Oregon and in and around 100 degrees for northern Utah, low 100s for southern Utah (106 for St George). Salt Lake may top 99, Denver a little cooler but a blazing sun and no cloud, hi around 92. Boise will be cool compared with yesterday 102. Hi today should be around 93-94. Reno, also cooler with high around 95 rather than 100. Even areas of Montana is likely to hit 100 today including Billings and Glasgow. Glasgow may in fact reach 105 this afternoon!
southern plains
A tropical feeling day with heavy showers and storms likely from midday throughout the rest of today as a front progresses south, raising moisture levels and therefore storm chance across all of Oklahoma and Texas. Highs remain warm with actually the hottest air being more south than north with Houston likely to top around 93 and Dallas may only top 88-90. Lows as usual will remain near 80 along the immediate Gulf Coast communities of Texas, mid-70s for Houston and points 20-50 miles inland from the Gulf and low to mid-70s for interior areas.
northern plains
Glasgow, Mt will top the 100s as the western high pushes north, the outher periphery of this high will push highs in the western Dakotas into the mid-80s, whilst far eastern Dakotas on eastwards will have a markedly different, cooler and more refreshing air mass. From Minneapolis to Chicago to Detroit, comfortably low humidity, 100% sunshine and low temperatures will exist as the Canadian high which is progressing as far south as Atlanta by this evening is holding highs across the region to only 70-75 degrees! Not bad for the end of June, enjoy this while you can as this is a rare summertime airmass... Note the vastly cooler air for St Louis with only low 80s today and lows down to near 60 degrees!!
Mark's City-Cast as follows: Minot, ND, Hi 85, Lo 65, Minneapolis, MN 72, Lo 62, Chicago, Il, Hi 75, Lo 57, Detroit, Mi, Hi 74, Lo 52. St Louis, Mo, 82, Lo 61.
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Alex to Start Impacting Brownsville Wednesday before Landfall
AccuWeather
VIDEO: Eastern Storms Gone, Turning Cooler
AccuWeather
Severe Thunderstorms Impacting Carolinas, Northern Rockies
AccuWeather
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
DOES THE UK HEAT CONTINUE?
After a peak high at Gravesend, Kent of 30.9C or 88 degrees F, the southern half of the UK and particularly the Greater London urban heat island continues to see very warm, settled weather with highs continuing to surpass the 80-degree mark. Yesterday saw a high of 84 degrees whilst to the north and across Scotland as well as N. Ireland, we see slightly cooler, cloudier and more unsettled weather as an area of low pressure effects pressure heights over the northern UK... Incidentally, yesterday cool 67-degree high here was warmed today to a muggy 75 degrees as the warmth pushes north. Tomorrow we may see more sunshine and indeed I expect highs to oush the mid-70s again before another shot of cooler weather digs down bringing an increased rainfall risk. 80s are likely to continue for the next 2-3 days down across the southern half of the British Isles.
Does the current warmth continue?
It appears to be a pattern in which a trough and cool pool of air will press against the Azores high down, stubbornly forcing dropping pressure heights over Scotland, N. Ireland and the north of England through at least the next 5-10 days. This will continue to keep a more unsettled patterns and therefore rain is possible on a regular basis.
As for England's southern half, it appears the upper 70s to mid-80s is likely to continue as this part of the country will be just in the right spot for the continued influence of the Azores High northern periphery, keeping highs above average.. I expect highs of at least 80 up until at least Saturday!
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 83 degrees at Heathrow (Greater London)
Low: 42 degrees at Dalwhinnie (Highland)
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 75 degrees
Low: 56 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
Monday, June 28, 2010
28 June, 2010
You can follow this Blog on Facebook and Twitter, Becomer a Fan and Follower Today!
Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Tropical Storm Alex to become Hurricane
Mark Vogan
Alex will become a hurricane whether it be later tonight (US time) or tomorrow. It appears that it's track is showing signs of a more northward jog and may take aim at the Mexico-Texas border, could this system become a cat-3 storm? Stay tuned...
Alex to Become a Hurricane Before Hitting Texas or Mexico
AccuWeather News
Britain set for its hottest day ever this summer (but rain's on its way this week)
Daily Mail
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
southeast & florida
Houston to Miami will spell and decent chance of PM storms today with LOWER temps, highs should only top the 90-92 range for Houston, 88-90 for New Orleans and low 90s throughout Florida, so a slight relief for the Sunbelt after a gruelling past 2-3 weeks of low to mid to upper 90s! Lows however will continue to run into the mid to upper 70s with high dew point air. As for the interior Southeast, Highs are expected to top the low to mid-90s, slightly lower humidity and with a 30-50% storm chance today for places from Mongtomery to Atlanta to Charlotte.. Lows will run into the usual mid-70s tonight.
northern plains & midwest
A simply BEAUTIFUL day for folks from Bismarck to Chicago, the front has pushes through and skies will be sunny today, low humidity and highs in the low 80s for the western and central Dakotas, mid-70s for Minneapolis and much of Minnesota to low 80s for Chicago today, just glorious weather indeed. Down in St Louis, we see a trim back of the heat there with highs around 90 with mostly sunny skies. What more could you ask for. Where are the storms today? Down into the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee valleys! Lows tonight should be ranging from the very comfortable 50s in the northwest, low 60s for MSP and CHI, 70 for St Louis.
southwest & northwest
The heat builds across much of the West with highs oushing the upper 90s as far north as Salt Lake and Boise. The deserts will see highs top 115 in the warmest spots whilst 110 should be the max today for both Phoenix and Vegas! Whilst 97 is expected in Salt Lake and 95 in Denver, 99 is Boise, though it's sunny, it will only be in the 60s and 70s for Seattle down to Portland. Lows range from 40 and 50s across the PNW. near 70 for the Great Basin and 80s for the low Deserts of the Southwest.
southern plains
A day with a high threat of thunderstorms for most areas. Highs range for the low 90s around Houston to mid-90s for Dallas and north and west Texas. Low run from near 80 along the Gulf to mid-70s inland!
northeast & mid-atlantic
A day of heat, humidity and late afternoon storms. A front is pushign towards the Atlantic coast today but before it's arrival. Major heat will effect a region from DC to Boston. Upper 90s for DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia, whilst mid-90s for New York City all the way to Boston... Around 4-5pm on into the evening will need to be watched for strong to severe thunderstorms that could threaten most areas. Lows should be in the mid-70s for most!
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
VIDEO: Alex Should Become a Hurricane, Celia and Darby still Weaken
AccuWeather
Cooling, Drying Slated for Midwest, Northeast
AccuWeather
Another Round of Damaging Storms in the Northeast
AccuWeather
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
Exceptional Night Warmth Sunday into Monday morning from Washington DC to New York
Just look at those night lows recorded yesterday (Monday) morning. 84 degrees for a high here would be very very warm, even for folks down in London. That is around the national high for the UK... Indeed as stated when I spoke of the warm mornings, this aids in setting a good base for a very warm to hot afternoon if winds, lack of cloudcover and other aspects are just right. Yesterday saw highs rocket into the UPPER 90s from North Carolina, Virginia up through Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey all the way into the Greater New York area. It reached a sweaty 94 in Boston.
It was also the hottest day nationally as well as for many Western cities with a hot 100 degree reading at Reno and 102 in Boise... The prize as is often the case goes to Death Valley where the high there topped 123 degrees yesterday. Even the Southern States which has seen the core of heat stretch from west Texas to the Carolinas for the past month saw yet another hot and humid gruelling day with a high reaching 97 in Dallas, 100 in Shreveport and 95 on the south Atlantic shore at Charleston.
As impressive as these numbers are, it really was the lows of 81 at Washington, 82 at Philadelphia and 84 at LaGuardia that really grabbed my attention. Bare in mind that those hot numbers are the LOWEST reading reported and therefore most of the overnight hours likely saw upper 80s to near 90 degrees at LaGuardia and perhaps over 90 degrees before midnight, that's very uncomfortable..
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Monday, June 28, 2010
An IMD update said on Sunday that the offshore trough extending from south Gujarat coast to coastal Karnataka coast persists.
According to international forecasts,the west coast and, can expect heavy to very heavy rainfall from around July 1 (Thursday).
Now thats the forecast estimate, but will the forecast sustain?? I really don't know !!
I have given the reasons in my blogs for my doubts, of the monsoon current picking up by the 1st. I do not see any "low"or system developing either side,before the 2/3 July. And, the MJO shows no positive signs till the 5th. July.
A real meaningfull momentum to the off shore trough in the west will be only after an active MJO, or a low in the bay draws the winds from the sea onto the land.
To add to the negatives,a feeble western disturbance would be moving over northwest India for the next 3 days. This would prevent the monsoon from moving further into the region.
(These are my personal judgements, and I think prevailing upon estimates given by proffesional meteorologists would be a better reliance for commercial use).
The "huge" convective thunder clouds forming last 2 days in the North Maharashtra regions are basically rising "heat thermals" and I don't think realted to any organised system anywhere. Its just a lot of on land moisture rising to great heights. And precipitating heavy "evening thundershowers', nevertheless. Organised or not, useful rain nevertheless !
Read our partner blog in full, Here
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Possible Tornado Damages Michigan Campground
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
Hot, Then Not
Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 123 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 31 degrees at Stanley, ID
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 84 degrees at Charlwood (Surrey)
Low: 44 degrees at Katesbridge (Co. Down)
Today's Extremes here at the house
High: 67 degrees
Low: 54 degrees
TODAY'S COND
A cool, cloudy rainy day with heavy and persistent evening rains.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Tropical Storm Alex to become Hurricane
Mark Vogan
Alex will become a hurricane whether it be later tonight (US time) or tomorrow. It appears that it's track is showing signs of a more northward jog and may take aim at the Mexico-Texas border, could this system become a cat-3 storm? Stay tuned...
Alex to Become a Hurricane Before Hitting Texas or Mexico
AccuWeather News
Britain set for its hottest day ever this summer (but rain's on its way this week)
Daily Mail
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
southeast & florida
Houston to Miami will spell and decent chance of PM storms today with LOWER temps, highs should only top the 90-92 range for Houston, 88-90 for New Orleans and low 90s throughout Florida, so a slight relief for the Sunbelt after a gruelling past 2-3 weeks of low to mid to upper 90s! Lows however will continue to run into the mid to upper 70s with high dew point air. As for the interior Southeast, Highs are expected to top the low to mid-90s, slightly lower humidity and with a 30-50% storm chance today for places from Mongtomery to Atlanta to Charlotte.. Lows will run into the usual mid-70s tonight.
northern plains & midwest
A simply BEAUTIFUL day for folks from Bismarck to Chicago, the front has pushes through and skies will be sunny today, low humidity and highs in the low 80s for the western and central Dakotas, mid-70s for Minneapolis and much of Minnesota to low 80s for Chicago today, just glorious weather indeed. Down in St Louis, we see a trim back of the heat there with highs around 90 with mostly sunny skies. What more could you ask for. Where are the storms today? Down into the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee valleys! Lows tonight should be ranging from the very comfortable 50s in the northwest, low 60s for MSP and CHI, 70 for St Louis.
southwest & northwest
The heat builds across much of the West with highs oushing the upper 90s as far north as Salt Lake and Boise. The deserts will see highs top 115 in the warmest spots whilst 110 should be the max today for both Phoenix and Vegas! Whilst 97 is expected in Salt Lake and 95 in Denver, 99 is Boise, though it's sunny, it will only be in the 60s and 70s for Seattle down to Portland. Lows range from 40 and 50s across the PNW. near 70 for the Great Basin and 80s for the low Deserts of the Southwest.
southern plains
A day with a high threat of thunderstorms for most areas. Highs range for the low 90s around Houston to mid-90s for Dallas and north and west Texas. Low run from near 80 along the Gulf to mid-70s inland!
northeast & mid-atlantic
A day of heat, humidity and late afternoon storms. A front is pushign towards the Atlantic coast today but before it's arrival. Major heat will effect a region from DC to Boston. Upper 90s for DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia, whilst mid-90s for New York City all the way to Boston... Around 4-5pm on into the evening will need to be watched for strong to severe thunderstorms that could threaten most areas. Lows should be in the mid-70s for most!
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
VIDEO: Alex Should Become a Hurricane, Celia and Darby still Weaken
AccuWeather
Cooling, Drying Slated for Midwest, Northeast
AccuWeather
Another Round of Damaging Storms in the Northeast
AccuWeather
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
Exceptional Night Warmth Sunday into Monday morning from Washington DC to New York
Just look at those night lows recorded yesterday (Monday) morning. 84 degrees for a high here would be very very warm, even for folks down in London. That is around the national high for the UK... Indeed as stated when I spoke of the warm mornings, this aids in setting a good base for a very warm to hot afternoon if winds, lack of cloudcover and other aspects are just right. Yesterday saw highs rocket into the UPPER 90s from North Carolina, Virginia up through Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey all the way into the Greater New York area. It reached a sweaty 94 in Boston.
It was also the hottest day nationally as well as for many Western cities with a hot 100 degree reading at Reno and 102 in Boise... The prize as is often the case goes to Death Valley where the high there topped 123 degrees yesterday. Even the Southern States which has seen the core of heat stretch from west Texas to the Carolinas for the past month saw yet another hot and humid gruelling day with a high reaching 97 in Dallas, 100 in Shreveport and 95 on the south Atlantic shore at Charleston.
As impressive as these numbers are, it really was the lows of 81 at Washington, 82 at Philadelphia and 84 at LaGuardia that really grabbed my attention. Bare in mind that those hot numbers are the LOWEST reading reported and therefore most of the overnight hours likely saw upper 80s to near 90 degrees at LaGuardia and perhaps over 90 degrees before midnight, that's very uncomfortable..
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Monday, June 28, 2010
An IMD update said on Sunday that the offshore trough extending from south Gujarat coast to coastal Karnataka coast persists.
According to international forecasts,the west coast and, can expect heavy to very heavy rainfall from around July 1 (Thursday).
Now thats the forecast estimate, but will the forecast sustain?? I really don't know !!
I have given the reasons in my blogs for my doubts, of the monsoon current picking up by the 1st. I do not see any "low"or system developing either side,before the 2/3 July. And, the MJO shows no positive signs till the 5th. July.
A real meaningfull momentum to the off shore trough in the west will be only after an active MJO, or a low in the bay draws the winds from the sea onto the land.
To add to the negatives,a feeble western disturbance would be moving over northwest India for the next 3 days. This would prevent the monsoon from moving further into the region.
(These are my personal judgements, and I think prevailing upon estimates given by proffesional meteorologists would be a better reliance for commercial use).
The "huge" convective thunder clouds forming last 2 days in the North Maharashtra regions are basically rising "heat thermals" and I don't think realted to any organised system anywhere. Its just a lot of on land moisture rising to great heights. And precipitating heavy "evening thundershowers', nevertheless. Organised or not, useful rain nevertheless !
Read our partner blog in full, Here
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Possible Tornado Damages Michigan Campground
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
Hot, Then Not
Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 123 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 31 degrees at Stanley, ID
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 84 degrees at Charlwood (Surrey)
Low: 44 degrees at Katesbridge (Co. Down)
Today's Extremes here at the house
High: 67 degrees
Low: 54 degrees
TODAY'S COND
A cool, cloudy rainy day with heavy and persistent evening rains.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
Sunday, June 27, 2010
SUNDAY POETRY: "AT THE FISHHOUSES"
AT THE FISHHOUSES
by Elizabeth Bishop
Although it is a cold evening,down by one of the fishhousesan old man sits netting,his net, in the gloaming almost invisible,a dark purple-brown,and his shuttle worn and polished.The air smells so strong of codfishit makes one’s nose run and one’s eyes water.The five fishhouses have steeply peaked roofsand narrow, cleated gangplanks slant upto storerooms in the gablesfor the wheelbarrows to be pushed up and down on.All is silver: the heavy surface of the sea,swelling slowly as if considering spilling over,is opaque, but the silver of the benches,the lobster pots, and masts, scatteredamong the wild jagged rocks,is of an apparent translucencelike the small old buildings with an emerald mossgrowing on their shoreward walls.The big fish tubs are completely linedwith layers of beautiful herring scalesand the wheelbarrows are similarly plasteredwith creamy iridescent coats of mail,with small iridescent flies crawling on them.Up on the little slope behind the houses,set in the sparse bright sprinkle of grass,is an ancient wooden capstan,cracked, with two long bleached handlesand some melancholy stains, like dried blood,where the ironwork has rusted.The old man accepts a Lucky Strike.He was a friend of my grandfather.We talk of the decline in the populationand of codfish and herringwhile he waits for a herring boat to come in.There are sequins on his vest and on his thumb.He has scraped the scales, the principal beauty,from unnumbered fish with that black old knife,the blade of which is almost worn away.Down at the water’s edge, at the placewhere they haul up the boats, up the long rampdescending into the water, thin silvertree trunks are laid horizontallyacross the gray stones, down and downat intervals of four or five feet.Cold dark deep and absolutely clear,element bearable to no mortal,to fish and to seals . . . One seal particularlyI have seen here evening after evening.He was curious about me. He was interested in music;like me a believer in total immersion,so I used to sing him Baptist hymns.I also sang “A Mighty Fortress Is Our God.”He stood up in the water and regarded mesteadily, moving his head a little.Then he would disappear, then suddenly emergealmost in the same spot, with a sort of shrugas if it were against his better judgment.Cold dark deep and absolutely clear,the clear gray icy water . . . Back, behind us,the dignified tall firs begin.Bluish, associating with their shadows,a million Christmas trees standwaiting for Christmas. The water seems suspendedabove the rounded gray and blue-gray stones.I have seen it over and over, the same sea, the same,slightly, indifferently swinging above the stones,icily free above the stones,above the stones and then the world.If you should dip your hand in,your wrist would ache immediately,your bones would begin to ache and your hand would burnas if the water were a transmutation of firethat feeds on stones and burns with a dark gray flame.If you tasted it, it would first taste bitter,then briny, then surely burn your tongue.It is like what we imagine knowledge to be:dark, salt, clear, moving, utterly free,drawn from the cold hard mouthof the world, derived from the rocky breastsforever, flowing and drawn, and sinceour knowledge is historical, flowing, and flown.
.jpg)
(Photo by Malene Thyssen, courtesy Wikimedia Commons)
In my humble opinion this is simply one of the best poems ever written.
The long middle section of DEEP BLUE HOME takes place mostly in Newfoundland, with its extinct cod fishery and pilot whale "fishery," its capelin fishery, and the wonderful seabirds of Cape Saint Mary's. Elizabeth Bishop's poem reminds me of that world.
The poem also reminds me of Pete, the harbor seal from Monterey, a friendly guy who visited divers up close and personal back in the 1980s. (Does he still?) I liked him so much I made a sincere effort to cut him into every single film I ever made, no matter how long a stretch it might be to have, say, a California harbor seal appear in a film about coral reefs. I still remember his cameo lived on videotape #113 in my stock footage library. Lori, if you're reading this, you might remember that too.
27 June, 2010
You can follow this Blog on Facebook and Twitter
Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Special Coverage by Mark Vogan
TROPICAL STORM ALEX
10.10PM REPORT: Alex weakened over land but likely to become a hurricane over the southwest Gulf
I wouldn't be surprised if Alex became the seasons first hurricane as early as tomorrow afternoon or evening. A very conducive environment awaits Alex's return to water and those waters are well warm enough. The longer it remains over water and the environment of the atmosphere surrounding this system remains void of shear, the greater the chance this system can organise and intensify. It apepars as though it's heading on a path towards the central Mexican east coast with a landfall sometime around Wednesday (see the Weather Talk segment below for an ECMWF model discussion)
1PM REPORT: Alex maintains Tropical Storm Intensity over Mexico's Yucatan, likely to make land fall near Tampico, Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane sometime Wednesday or Thursday
The very fact that Alex has maintained itself as a 40mph Tropical Storm over the Yucatan of Mexico tells me several things.
1) It's a now well-formed system.
2) It's embedded within a near perfect atmospheric environment with minimal windshear.
3) It's over 50% likely that once it enters the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that it will become a hurricane.
Waters are plenty warm in the southwest Gulf and with a good atmosphere over this region for the near future suggests this system will become the Atlantic's first hurricane. Does it have time to grow beyond cat 1 intensity? Well not likely as of this time, however if it were to track slightly further northward once in the Gulf and perhaps threatens extreme southern Texas, then there is a small chance for further intensification as well as organisation as waters are warmer further into the Gulf and to deeper depths. Also and more importantly, it would have longer over those warm waters which would provide adiquate time to strengthen.
As of this moment, it appears that the upper-level ridge will dominate the atmosphere over the northern and central Gulf and therefore will push Alex onto the eastern coastline of Mexico, sometime Wednesday or even Thursday... If it happened to be Thursday before landfall, this again may allow Alex to grow into a category 2 storm before impacting population, perhaps around Tampico.
Stay tuned fore further updates on Alex coming later today.
CHECK OUT THESE UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
Public Advisory: HERE & Expert Discussion: HERE
ACCUWEATHER HURRICANE CENTER HERE
GRAPHIC ABOVE COURTESY OF THE WEATHER CHANNEL
IMAGE COURTESY OF THE DAILY MAIL
Great Britain to see Warmest of 2010 today
Central London likely to near 90 this afternoon
Special Story
By Mark Vogan
As of 9am GMT, Sunday, it was an already balmy 72 degrees (22C) at Charlwood in Surrey and after the same location within Greater London just fell shy of the UK's warmest reading so far of 2010 which was 84 degrees at Heathrow Airport yesterday with a high Saturday of 83 degree (28.6C) reading, it looks set that somewhere within the Greater London area will see the warmest reading of the year so far, today with Mark Vogan predicting a high of 88-90 degrees (31-32C) between 3-5pm GMT.
It's all about a "building of heat" which has been the case since Thursday, gradual warming often sees a "peaking in daytime highs" which is likely today (Sunday). When conditions are right and high pressure stands strong in one given area, highs gradually warm day after day and more importantly, nights fail to cool. When you've reached that threshold of minimal nighttime cooling, that allows the day to start off warmer than the previous, so a warmer base allows that rising sun to heat the air faster and easier. For example, Charlwood's 9am reading of 72 is the warmest so early in this current warm spell. As that sun rises throughout the morning, the air is ALREADY WARM so it doesn't take as much work from the sun to further heat the air. When conditions are right, when you look back at the previous day and it's a degree or two warmer than the same time the previous 24 hours, it's more than likely the actual peak temperature will be warmer, therefore a good indicator and often for meteorologists a good indicator at just where that high will peak at... that of course is given the winds remain relatively light and there is minimal clouds to abstruct the sun's rays to the surface. Sometimes a breeze will kick in, often due to heating, or a thunderstorm will blow up, these two factors often prematurely cut off the daytime heating process and therefore the high doesn't reach the anticipated level. That isn't likely to be the case. The atmosphere is reasonably "capped" over southern England, therefore cloud formation should't be an issue. The core of high pressure is fairly closely over southeast England, therefore winds should remain light, thus all indications are that it's going to reach forecasted levels this afternoon.
T-STORMS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN ENGLAND AND SCOTLAND TODAY..
Pressures are lower across the north and with a closer distance to an area of LOW pressure to the northwest of Scotland, surface warming this afternoon should still allow 70s for central Scotland, the energy of a frontal boundary across the northwest may spark of afternoon thunderstorms across central Scotland as surface readings warm and helps ignite energy aloft.
These very warm readings SO FAR of low 80s have failed to reach Mark's criteria of "HOT", so far it's fallen into the "Very Warm" category but if it reaches the expected 88 degrees or higher, then for the first time in 2010, southern England will enter the "Hot" category...
Mark Vogan fears a Summer of 2003 repeat
The increasingly drier soils, particularly over the Lake District but also throughout much of the UK with exceptions of northern and far western Scotland, this is already aiding in strengthening high pressure over us. The dry weather shows no signs of change and as we appreoach the hottest portion of the year, the signs are there for what could be a scorcher of a July and August. Remember the hottest air of the year during the record sdummer of 2003 didn't hit until early August! Right now it appears that July will see a much warmer and drier than normal pattern and highs which push into the 90s for the south and 80s for the north.
Another Dangerously Hot day for the Mid-Atlantic States
By Mark Vogan
Bermuda High upstoppable across the Eastern States with highs that will rocket into the upper 90s with some 100s likely in North Carolina, Virginia (including Greater Washington DC) and even south Jersey today with warmest night of 2010 ahead tonight, Lows will likely fail to drop below 80 degrees from Downtown Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia and possibly even up to New York City. Coastal North Carolina, Virginia and Delaware may see lows only drop to 81-84 degrees, where coastal waters of the Atlantic as well as coastal inlets and bays have water temps now into the middle 80s.
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
southeast & florida
Your Sunday will be dominated by highs in the 90s for basically everywhere, only exception will be in the west, no it won't be cooler, no, it will in fact be hotter! Area of northwest Louisiana into Texas will once again broil in near 100 degree heat. As for southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and throughout Florida, it's all about hit and miss PM storms, dew points in the 70s and indeed low to mid-90 degree heat. Tonight will see 80s into the early morning hours and drop off to around 75-80 degrees by around 4-5am for the morning low. Further north into the interior northeast, highs range from 92 to 94 degrees with a chance, though lower than that of the central and eastern Gulf coast of afternoon storms. Low will range between 71-76 degrees.
northern plains & midwest
Yes, you've guessed it. a frontal system progresses down through the Northern Plains and into the Lower Midwest later today. Highs will be pleasantly warm behind the front in North Dakota with highs generally in the low 80s. Just ahead of the front the high should warm into the upper 80s for both Minneapolis down to Chicago. MSP hi should hit 87 and 88 or 89 for Chicago, lower 90s the further south you go towards St Louis. More or less everywhere south and east of North Dkota has a chance of thunderstorms today. Lows range from the upper 60s with drier air to the west, low to mid-70s in the soupier air to the south and east.
southwest & northwest
The entire Western third of the nation looks terrific. Abundant sunshine for everyone. Highs in the 70s and 80s for the Pacific Northwest and interior, east of the mountains. 80s and 90s for the Great Basin and coastal 70s, inland 80s and 90s and 100s for the desert. Highs should top around 100, low around 77 for Vegas. Hi of 107, Lo around 80 for Phoenix and 112, lo 82 for Death Valley. LA should see highs around 75-77 after morning clouds.
northeast & mid-atlantic
Storms over the interior Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic will oush towards the Atlantic, ahead of this front, the warmth will surge into the Northeast with highs ranging from around 100 for DC and Baltimore, mid-90s for Philly, low 90s for New York and mid to upper 80s for Boston. Those storms will knock on the door tomorrow in these cities. Lows tonight will generally run down to only around 80 degrees for downtown DC, Balt, Phila and New York!
southern plains
Today should see lesser chances of storms nearer the Texas Gulf Coast with highs running into the mid to even upper 90s for Houston as skies are sunnier. Across the heart of Texas highs are knocking on the door of 100 from Lubbock to Dallas. Lows really struggling to get below 75 for most places, some spots may be lucky to hit 80 for a low by tomorrow morning!
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Alex's Potential Impacts on the Oil Slick Area
AccuWeather
Severe Storms Over Midwest Sunday, Northeast Monday
AccuWeather
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
ECMWF MODEL PREDICTS THIS WEEK
ALEX TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY, BUILD THE HEAT OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH AND COOLER AIR TO DROP INTO THE NORTHEAST
As seen from today's run of the ECMWF model, tomorrow shows Alex, the closed "L" which as you can see placxes the system out over the southwest Gulf and aiming northwestwards towards the Tampico area of Mexico east coast.
The Southwest blowtorch is on and will expand north up through the Rockies this week perhaps bringing the first 100 for both Denver, Salt Lake and even perhaps Reno and Boise before next weekend. We may also see the firest 120-degree reading in Death Valley also.. Meanwhile the heat is strong today and indeed tomorrow, note the "red" directly over the I-95 corridor tomorrow... Another day running towards 100 will be found between Richmond, Va and Newark, Del and mid-90s for Philadelphia up to La Guardia, NYC.
The above model run is for Wednesday and if you notice, another contour line marked within the low representing Alex is there for a mexican landfall, it to me, it looks as though it has a hurricane coming ashore, near or over Tampico, Mexico.
Whilst that's happening, you'll notice the heat built right up with possibly some of the warmest air over the western Dakotas, 100-105 for Rapid City on Wednesday? Meanwhile, check out the pocket of cooler air drapped over the Northeast, after mid-90s tomorrow as far north as LaGuardia, NYC, it may be mid-80s for highs Wednesday, possibly lower, Boston may struggle to top 70 degrees for a high Washington DC may enjoy a day of only 88 to 90, rather than 100. It doesn't appear as though this eastern trough, eases the heat much south of Tennessee with likely daytime 90s remaining for Atlanta, though we may see a day midweek of 89 there but if so, it will be short lived I believe. Folks south of Atlanta will see highs remain in the 93-93 range day after day and nights continue to struggle out of the 80s for lows.
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
No post today!
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Severe East Asia Heat Update
Jim Andrews, AccuWeather
The North Slope Spring Thaw Viewed from Space
Brett Anderson, AccuWeather
Rush Limbaugh Falsifies The 1979 Hurricane Record
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
Tropical Storm Alex
The Valley Weather, (Montreal, Quebec)
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 88 degrees at Gravesend (Kent)
Low: 43 degrees at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire)
NOTE:
TODAY MARKS THE UK'S WARMEST DAY OF 2010. OTHER PEAK TEMPS IN SE OF ENGLAND. 86 DEGREES AT ST JAMES'S PARK (CENTRAL LONDON), 87 DEGREES AT HEATHROW
Today's Extremes here at the house
High: 73 degrees
Low: 56 degrees
TODAY'S COND
A generally overcast, showery day with some of those showers very heavy... A mild day but with minimal sunshine.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
TROPICAL STORM ALEX
10.10PM REPORT: Alex weakened over land but likely to become a hurricane over the southwest Gulf
I wouldn't be surprised if Alex became the seasons first hurricane as early as tomorrow afternoon or evening. A very conducive environment awaits Alex's return to water and those waters are well warm enough. The longer it remains over water and the environment of the atmosphere surrounding this system remains void of shear, the greater the chance this system can organise and intensify. It apepars as though it's heading on a path towards the central Mexican east coast with a landfall sometime around Wednesday (see the Weather Talk segment below for an ECMWF model discussion)
1PM REPORT: Alex maintains Tropical Storm Intensity over Mexico's Yucatan, likely to make land fall near Tampico, Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane sometime Wednesday or Thursday
The very fact that Alex has maintained itself as a 40mph Tropical Storm over the Yucatan of Mexico tells me several things.
1) It's a now well-formed system.
2) It's embedded within a near perfect atmospheric environment with minimal windshear.
3) It's over 50% likely that once it enters the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that it will become a hurricane.
Waters are plenty warm in the southwest Gulf and with a good atmosphere over this region for the near future suggests this system will become the Atlantic's first hurricane. Does it have time to grow beyond cat 1 intensity? Well not likely as of this time, however if it were to track slightly further northward once in the Gulf and perhaps threatens extreme southern Texas, then there is a small chance for further intensification as well as organisation as waters are warmer further into the Gulf and to deeper depths. Also and more importantly, it would have longer over those warm waters which would provide adiquate time to strengthen.
As of this moment, it appears that the upper-level ridge will dominate the atmosphere over the northern and central Gulf and therefore will push Alex onto the eastern coastline of Mexico, sometime Wednesday or even Thursday... If it happened to be Thursday before landfall, this again may allow Alex to grow into a category 2 storm before impacting population, perhaps around Tampico.
Stay tuned fore further updates on Alex coming later today.
CHECK OUT THESE UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
Public Advisory: HERE & Expert Discussion: HERE
ACCUWEATHER HURRICANE CENTER HERE
GRAPHIC ABOVE COURTESY OF THE WEATHER CHANNEL
IMAGE COURTESY OF THE DAILY MAIL
Great Britain to see Warmest of 2010 today
Central London likely to near 90 this afternoon
Special Story
By Mark Vogan
As of 9am GMT, Sunday, it was an already balmy 72 degrees (22C) at Charlwood in Surrey and after the same location within Greater London just fell shy of the UK's warmest reading so far of 2010 which was 84 degrees at Heathrow Airport yesterday with a high Saturday of 83 degree (28.6C) reading, it looks set that somewhere within the Greater London area will see the warmest reading of the year so far, today with Mark Vogan predicting a high of 88-90 degrees (31-32C) between 3-5pm GMT.
It's all about a "building of heat" which has been the case since Thursday, gradual warming often sees a "peaking in daytime highs" which is likely today (Sunday). When conditions are right and high pressure stands strong in one given area, highs gradually warm day after day and more importantly, nights fail to cool. When you've reached that threshold of minimal nighttime cooling, that allows the day to start off warmer than the previous, so a warmer base allows that rising sun to heat the air faster and easier. For example, Charlwood's 9am reading of 72 is the warmest so early in this current warm spell. As that sun rises throughout the morning, the air is ALREADY WARM so it doesn't take as much work from the sun to further heat the air. When conditions are right, when you look back at the previous day and it's a degree or two warmer than the same time the previous 24 hours, it's more than likely the actual peak temperature will be warmer, therefore a good indicator and often for meteorologists a good indicator at just where that high will peak at... that of course is given the winds remain relatively light and there is minimal clouds to abstruct the sun's rays to the surface. Sometimes a breeze will kick in, often due to heating, or a thunderstorm will blow up, these two factors often prematurely cut off the daytime heating process and therefore the high doesn't reach the anticipated level. That isn't likely to be the case. The atmosphere is reasonably "capped" over southern England, therefore cloud formation should't be an issue. The core of high pressure is fairly closely over southeast England, therefore winds should remain light, thus all indications are that it's going to reach forecasted levels this afternoon.
T-STORMS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN ENGLAND AND SCOTLAND TODAY..
Pressures are lower across the north and with a closer distance to an area of LOW pressure to the northwest of Scotland, surface warming this afternoon should still allow 70s for central Scotland, the energy of a frontal boundary across the northwest may spark of afternoon thunderstorms across central Scotland as surface readings warm and helps ignite energy aloft.
These very warm readings SO FAR of low 80s have failed to reach Mark's criteria of "HOT", so far it's fallen into the "Very Warm" category but if it reaches the expected 88 degrees or higher, then for the first time in 2010, southern England will enter the "Hot" category...
Mark Vogan fears a Summer of 2003 repeat
The increasingly drier soils, particularly over the Lake District but also throughout much of the UK with exceptions of northern and far western Scotland, this is already aiding in strengthening high pressure over us. The dry weather shows no signs of change and as we appreoach the hottest portion of the year, the signs are there for what could be a scorcher of a July and August. Remember the hottest air of the year during the record sdummer of 2003 didn't hit until early August! Right now it appears that July will see a much warmer and drier than normal pattern and highs which push into the 90s for the south and 80s for the north.
Another Dangerously Hot day for the Mid-Atlantic States
By Mark Vogan
Bermuda High upstoppable across the Eastern States with highs that will rocket into the upper 90s with some 100s likely in North Carolina, Virginia (including Greater Washington DC) and even south Jersey today with warmest night of 2010 ahead tonight, Lows will likely fail to drop below 80 degrees from Downtown Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia and possibly even up to New York City. Coastal North Carolina, Virginia and Delaware may see lows only drop to 81-84 degrees, where coastal waters of the Atlantic as well as coastal inlets and bays have water temps now into the middle 80s.
by mark vogan
southeast & florida
Your Sunday will be dominated by highs in the 90s for basically everywhere, only exception will be in the west, no it won't be cooler, no, it will in fact be hotter! Area of northwest Louisiana into Texas will once again broil in near 100 degree heat. As for southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and throughout Florida, it's all about hit and miss PM storms, dew points in the 70s and indeed low to mid-90 degree heat. Tonight will see 80s into the early morning hours and drop off to around 75-80 degrees by around 4-5am for the morning low. Further north into the interior northeast, highs range from 92 to 94 degrees with a chance, though lower than that of the central and eastern Gulf coast of afternoon storms. Low will range between 71-76 degrees.
northern plains & midwest
Yes, you've guessed it. a frontal system progresses down through the Northern Plains and into the Lower Midwest later today. Highs will be pleasantly warm behind the front in North Dakota with highs generally in the low 80s. Just ahead of the front the high should warm into the upper 80s for both Minneapolis down to Chicago. MSP hi should hit 87 and 88 or 89 for Chicago, lower 90s the further south you go towards St Louis. More or less everywhere south and east of North Dkota has a chance of thunderstorms today. Lows range from the upper 60s with drier air to the west, low to mid-70s in the soupier air to the south and east.
southwest & northwest
The entire Western third of the nation looks terrific. Abundant sunshine for everyone. Highs in the 70s and 80s for the Pacific Northwest and interior, east of the mountains. 80s and 90s for the Great Basin and coastal 70s, inland 80s and 90s and 100s for the desert. Highs should top around 100, low around 77 for Vegas. Hi of 107, Lo around 80 for Phoenix and 112, lo 82 for Death Valley. LA should see highs around 75-77 after morning clouds.
northeast & mid-atlantic
Storms over the interior Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic will oush towards the Atlantic, ahead of this front, the warmth will surge into the Northeast with highs ranging from around 100 for DC and Baltimore, mid-90s for Philly, low 90s for New York and mid to upper 80s for Boston. Those storms will knock on the door tomorrow in these cities. Lows tonight will generally run down to only around 80 degrees for downtown DC, Balt, Phila and New York!
southern plains
Today should see lesser chances of storms nearer the Texas Gulf Coast with highs running into the mid to even upper 90s for Houston as skies are sunnier. Across the heart of Texas highs are knocking on the door of 100 from Lubbock to Dallas. Lows really struggling to get below 75 for most places, some spots may be lucky to hit 80 for a low by tomorrow morning!
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Alex's Potential Impacts on the Oil Slick Area
AccuWeather
Severe Storms Over Midwest Sunday, Northeast Monday
AccuWeather
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
ECMWF MODEL PREDICTS THIS WEEK
ALEX TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY, BUILD THE HEAT OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH AND COOLER AIR TO DROP INTO THE NORTHEAST
The Southwest blowtorch is on and will expand north up through the Rockies this week perhaps bringing the first 100 for both Denver, Salt Lake and even perhaps Reno and Boise before next weekend. We may also see the firest 120-degree reading in Death Valley also.. Meanwhile the heat is strong today and indeed tomorrow, note the "red" directly over the I-95 corridor tomorrow... Another day running towards 100 will be found between Richmond, Va and Newark, Del and mid-90s for Philadelphia up to La Guardia, NYC.
The above model run is for Wednesday and if you notice, another contour line marked within the low representing Alex is there for a mexican landfall, it to me, it looks as though it has a hurricane coming ashore, near or over Tampico, Mexico.
Whilst that's happening, you'll notice the heat built right up with possibly some of the warmest air over the western Dakotas, 100-105 for Rapid City on Wednesday? Meanwhile, check out the pocket of cooler air drapped over the Northeast, after mid-90s tomorrow as far north as LaGuardia, NYC, it may be mid-80s for highs Wednesday, possibly lower, Boston may struggle to top 70 degrees for a high Washington DC may enjoy a day of only 88 to 90, rather than 100. It doesn't appear as though this eastern trough, eases the heat much south of Tennessee with likely daytime 90s remaining for Atlanta, though we may see a day midweek of 89 there but if so, it will be short lived I believe. Folks south of Atlanta will see highs remain in the 93-93 range day after day and nights continue to struggle out of the 80s for lows.
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
No post today!
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Severe East Asia Heat Update
Jim Andrews, AccuWeather
The North Slope Spring Thaw Viewed from Space
Brett Anderson, AccuWeather
Rush Limbaugh Falsifies The 1979 Hurricane Record
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
Tropical Storm Alex
The Valley Weather, (Montreal, Quebec)
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 88 degrees at Gravesend (Kent)
Low: 43 degrees at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire)
NOTE:
TODAY MARKS THE UK'S WARMEST DAY OF 2010. OTHER PEAK TEMPS IN SE OF ENGLAND. 86 DEGREES AT ST JAMES'S PARK (CENTRAL LONDON), 87 DEGREES AT HEATHROW
Today's Extremes here at the house
High: 73 degrees
Low: 56 degrees
TODAY'S COND
A generally overcast, showery day with some of those showers very heavy... A mild day but with minimal sunshine.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
