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On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Scores die in China flash floods
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your america today forecast
by mark vogan
southern plains
From Houston and San Antonio to Kansas City and St Louis, it's all about the brutal heat that's roasting this entire region with highs topping the mid to upper 90s with abundant sunshine. Houston is expected to top the mid to upper 90s today and with dew points running into the 70s, this will make it dangerous out there. Even across to Memphis I expect some potential for PM storms but it is going to get hot with at least mid-90s there... Night time lows will cool only to the upper 70s to around 80 in Houston, perhaps above 80 down along the Gulf coast. Whilst mid-70s for points as far north as St Louis. Across in West Texas, the desert region may see highs run to between 99 and 103, including El Paso. Dallas is likely to warm towards 99 with a low around 80.
northern plains
A fair weather day with plenty of sun and a break from the stormy weather of late. High range from the cool 60s near the Canadian border to mid to upper 80s for the Lower Midwest, including a forecast high of 87 for Chicago. 77 for Minneapolis and only 65 for International Falls.
southwest
Another day in which we see very low 100s for Phoenix and only mid to upper 90s for Las Vegas despite abundant sunshine and barely a cloud to be seen. Pressure heights across the northern Desert Southwest are slightly lower than normal jet to a further south than normal jet position and the persistent Pacific storm track. Points below Las Vegas are seeing slightly higher pressures and therefore highs are creeping a little above 100 but not by much. Highs today should range from 96 in Las Vegas withga low around 72. Pheonix 103 with a low of 78, Palm Springs 104, Low 70, Los Angeles 75, Low 60 and Death Valley 110, Lo 78.
northeast
It will be a hot, sunny day from the Mid-Atlantic to New England with highs ranging from around 91-92 in DC to 85 at Caribou, Maine with actually slightly cooler in between with New York enjoying near 84 and Boston near 82, a truely summertime patter rules as even warmer weather should hit tomorrow..
northwest
Cool, unsettled and rainy weather persists across the Northwest with highs in the 60s along the coastal plain, 70 east of the mountains!
southeast
The hot, steamy weather continues unabated across the region with highs along the Gulf around 90, lows around 80, whilst mid to nothern LA, MS, ALA, GA are seeing highs run between 90-94 today with dew points around 70 which is reasonably comfortable, although continuing to make it feel like the upper 90s. Lows are generally ranging between 72-75 across the central and northern half of the region. Storm changes are lowest for near TX-LA border, higher down towards the Gulf and Florida. Highs in Florida range from the mid-80s to low 90s, rather than upper 90s to around 102 like we've seen.
Today's Weather across America
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Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
REVISED
MARK VOGAN'S UNITED KINGDOM SUMMER 2010 FORECAST
Well, it feels like the winter of 2009-10 is out of our system and we're now enjoying decent warmth and persistently sunny, dry weather. Of course we have seen the odd wet, dull day here and there but I think you'll agree that on the whole, our weather this spring has been good with some decent warm spells which have pushed northern UK areas into the mid to upper 70s (24-26C) and central and southern areas have topped 80 (28C) with the warmest so far being 84 degrees at Heathrow Airport.
I remain confident, if not even more so now than back on April 1st, that the pattern we've seen, the now, tangable evidence from what was non-tangable when I issued my Preliminary Summer Forecast, our summer will be SUNNIER than normal which will produce a WARMER AND DRIER summer. The ground across the entire UK landmass is drying out and continues to do so. We saw a locked, stubborn weather pattern over us during the winter. I believe we will see yet another "locked pattern" which ultimately began at the close of 2009. The warmer air will eventually settle over us for good and we have generally flirted with the hot air, so far it's been warm but it's sooner rather than later we begin to see the truely hot air move up from the south and may set up shop over Britain until late August, providing one very warm to hot and stubbornly dry anticyclonic CONTINENTAL pattern over us between now (June 18 through August 10) providing a heatwave for perhaps a 10-day stretch during July.
The dry pattern, the ever closer push of a truly hot air mass is knocking on our door now (west of Britain) and will eventually progress east, bringing 80-degree heat to Scotland and 90 degree heat to the Midlands of England, central and southern-interior Wales and throughout the southern half of England. Glasgow to Edinburgh may see 1-3 days in which highs take a run at 86 degrees (30C) and nights that struggle to fall to 68-70 degrees (20-21C) for overnight lows, whilst London may see highs run well into the 90s (mid-30s) with a national maximum of perhaps 95-97 degrees (34-36C) at some point between Jul 10-25 with stifling nights that fail to fall below 70 or even 73 degrees (21-23C) will make for some of the warmest nights you'll ever find in Britain. Since rain will become scarce, throughout Britain, with the exceptions of possibly the far north and northwest of Scotland as well as the Orkneys and Shetland. Much of the rain that does fall may be more in the form of heat induced thunderstorms with CONVECTION exploding over a hot UK landmass. Draw in cooling winds off the surrounding North Sea, English Channel, Irish Sea and Atlantic and some sea breeze convergence, particularly over hills and mountains may bring intense downpours and we may also enjoy some wild and vivid lightening displays since heat should become the norm this summer for a change.
The drought conditions we may see from mid-July onwards may rival those of the 1990s when hose pipe bans became a common thing. Do we reach hose pipe ban levels? Who knows but I do think we may struggle to get rains in, once this pattern locks in place. Right now, the final wheels of the strue summer pattern are starting to turn. It will become just as extreme as it's winter cousin.. Remember how extreme we got during the winter? Well now we face the extreme on the other side of the coin....
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
125mms of Rain in 90 Minutes !
What Mumbai experianced on Friday afternoon was a virtual cloudburst.
I personally could not witness the rainstorm,as was in Goa,in fact waiting for the aircraft clearance at Goa airport from 3pm to 9pm. Thats till our aircraft got the go-ahaed to proceed to Mumbai.
Even though it was the aftermath of the storm,fortunately,I was able to observe the towering cumulo- nimbus thunder heads at eye-level from the airplane whilst approaching Mumbai. The route taken from Goa was initially North along the coast, but about 150kms before Mumbai, the aircraft turned towards the North-West, and flew over the sea, to approach Mumbai from the west, and it had flown a good 50-60 kms due west off Mumbai. Since the aircraft took the sea route while approaching Mumbai, I observed the maximum cumulo-nimbus clouds, thick and threatening, about 40kms off the city coast, due west.The cloud height observed then could have easily been 35000 feet above MSL, with the outside cloud temperature showing -30c on the passenger information screen. Even though it was night, a keen observer could locate and study the towering thunder heads at close quarters, infact flying through massive storm clouds at times.
With 125mms of rain in just 90minutes, it was a massive cloudburst, and could be due to a formation of a local vortex within the off shore trough. The local heat during the day, it was 32c on Friday, added fuel, and convection pushed up the vertical cone to heights of maybe 45000 ft during the storm. Cloud tops were observed at -55c in the weather maps.
As seen in the satellite image, a vortex is seen hanging around off the North Konkan coast even today, with enhanced cloud cover.
Now, as per the forecast models, this cloud cover will remain in the same stationary position till Tuesday, off the Maharashtra coast, and on Tuesday move towards Mumbai, and precipitate heavy rain along the Mumbai-North Konkan coast on Tuesday/Wednesday.
Since there is a possibility of an active MJO enhancing Monsoon prospects along the west coast, I would prescribe to this forecast, but for this to happen, there could be some mild heating again along the "forecasted "region on Sunday/Monday.
That is when I would presume an upper air circulation to form over south Gujarat, and precipitation could resume in strenght along Saurashtra from Tuesday.
Rain is seen pushing into interior Maharshtra this weekend. Some favourable rains could be expected in Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidharbh this weekend.
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Readings as on 19th. June:
Hottest in Asia:Al Ahsa Airport (Saudi Arabia) 50c, and Al Khaisumah Airport (Saudi Arabia) 50c.
Hottest places in Sub-Continent: Larkana (Pakistan) 49c, Kota (India) 46.3c.
Hottest Night in Al Khaisumah Airport 34c, and Kota recorded 32c last night.Heaviest Rain yesterday: Harnai (maharashtra) got 421 mms in the last 24 hrs.
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Severe Storms from Western New York, Ohio to Nebraska
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 67 degrees
Low: 50 degrees
TODAY'S COND
A very sunny, dry day yet again but due to a more northerly flow of air in the upper levels, this meant that despite the surface winds being light and the sun strong, the transport of cooler air aloft meant a slight reduction in temperature at the surface today from 73 yesterday to 67 today.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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