Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
BREAKING NEWS
Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phet Slams into Oman
ALEX SOSNOWSKI OF ACCUWEATHER.COM REPORTS
SOURCE: HERE
The projected path of Phet brings it into contact with millions of lives along the northern Arabian Seacoast in the Middle East into the weekend.
Phet was the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds approaching 105 mph, as of Thursday evening EDT. Gusts were up to around 125 mph. The storm at this time had just moved into northeastern Oman.
Phet will continue to track across northeastern Oman, exiting land near the city of Sur this morning. While the interaction of land will cause Phet to weaken, it remains a dangerous storm.
The storm threatens to unleash destruction from high winds, pounding surf and torrential rain on a location that typically receives only a few inches of rain per year.
Tropical Cyclone Gonu hit the Sur area hard in 2007 and is considered to be Oman's worst natural disaster.
Phet could have a very similar outcome turning the dry stream beds, called wadis, into raging torrents, while mudslides cascade down the mountainsides in northeastern Oman.
From 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected to fall on the parched landscape of northeastern Oman, which almost all will run off. Ras al Hadd, Oman, has received nearly 6 inches of rain in 24 hours, ending early this morning.
Odds favor the destructive winds of Phet to slide to the east of the oil fields in Oman and southern Iran, as the tropical cyclone is rather compact.
Since Phet is expected to curve to the northeast Friday after battering northeastern Oman, a trip back over the warm, open waters of the northern part of the Arabian Sea would allow for some restrengthening.
Later in the weekend, Phet could slam into coast of Pakistan as a tropical cyclone, threatening the city of Karachi and other coastal communities, perhaps with damaging and life-threatening consequences.
Since the storm will be in a weakened state after tangling with northeastern Oman, the threat to Pakistan and northwest India will be that of flooding rainfall. The magnitude of the rain and flooding will depend on how much Phet re-strengthens over the northern Arabian Sea.
Fifteen and a half million people live in the city of Karachi, part of the Indus River Delta region.
Depending upon the nature of the expected recurve of Phet, the northwestern part of India could also be threatened.
Small craft should avoid this area or remain in port, until the storm has moved inland over Pakistan/India. The storm may affect shipping out of the Gulf of Oman for up to a several day period.
The northwestern edge of the Gulf of Oman is connected to the Persian Gulf by the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Energy Information Administration states that 40 percent of seaborne oil passes through this strait.
Rough seas kicked up by Phet forced Petroleum Development Oman to halt oil exports today, according to Reuters. A spokeman said that the exporting facility is fine, but oil is not being loaded since ships cannot anchor at the facility due to the rough seas.
Seas in the vicinity of Phet were between 20 and 30 feet Thursday.
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Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
Perfect BBQ Days as 80s return to Britain, whilst Thunderstorms will blow up Saturday-Sunday
Whilst today saw yet another 70 degree plus day for Scotland and 80-degree day for the Heathrow area of north London, things are changing and we are going to see more thunderstorm development across eastern Britain come tomorrow afternoon as the heat builds once again. Comne early to mkid afternoon, those cumulus clouds that we have seen build during the afternoon as the air heats will continue to build into cumulonimbus clouds as east winds combined with lowering pressure heights over western Britain will enhnace the potential for thunderstorms tomorrow (Saturday) and particularly Sunday where once again heating will allow the appropriate lift, combined with instability which will be created as low pressures begins to press into western Britain and this will force probably widespread thunderstorm "blowups" Sunday across many areas of the British Isles. These that occur will be isolated and not covering lareg areas. The potential for thunderstorms to form will be widespread however.
Highs tomorrow will be warmest across the south and southeast of England as high pressure is flattened a little more from the west. The greater London area could well be eying either a high of 84 degrees which would match the UK highest temperature of 2010 or perhaps may surpass this reading by striking 85-86 degrees or 30C. Glasgow, Edinburgh and the rest of the central belt should once again enjoy mostly sunny skies with highs topping out at around the 70 degree mark. By Sunday we'll only warm into the mid 60s.
Vagaries of the Weather
India & sub-continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
TC 03A HAS EXITED BACK INTO WATER IN THE GULF OF OMAN: Update at 8.00pm ISt. Satellite image of 9.30pm IST.
" Phet" is currently located at 23.0N 59.6E, 100 Kms south-East of Muscat, having crossed over to the Arabian Sea from the Northern coast of Oman close to SUR. Winds are at 65 Knts, with central pressure of about 974 Mb. Earlier,"PHET" crossed the Eastern Coast of Oman and tracked in a Northerly direction and currently has re-emerged into the Arabian Sea North of Oman.
Satellite image shows considerable decline in rain, and rainfall area.Muscat recorded 34 mms of rain upto 8pm Local time today.This is quite a lot of rain for Muscat.
Forecast models are predicting the track to be towards Pakistan Coast, move rapidly now, and make landfall near Karachi, in the next 24 hours.
As the weakened "Phet" approaches the Kutch region, Coastal Saurashtra and Kutch regions can expect some heavy showers, and gusty winds for a day from Sunday.
Highest in Asia: Basra (Iraq): 47c
Highest in India: Ramagundam: 44.6c
Much of the Indian Sub-Continent has seen the back of the severe Heat Wave. Incidently, Pakistan's highest was also 45c at Sibi.
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Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 112 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 32 degrees at Angel Fire, NM
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 72 degrees
Low: 56 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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