Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
BREAKING INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010
...ALEX BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN MEXICO...
EXPERT DISCUSSION FROM NHC
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
981 MB AT 1716 UTC...WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND
SFMR WINDS NEAR 55 KT. SINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
ALEX IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. THIS
PATTERN YIELDS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION NEAR 0000 UTC WILL
FIND THAT ALEX IS A HURRICANE.
ALEX HAS TURNED FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
310/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY...AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ALEX WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
HAS TURNED LEFT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK STILL LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE ONLY
DYNAMICAL MODEL NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE HWRF. THUS...
THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IF
NECESSARY.
ALEX IS NOW IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL
LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION IS POOR AT THIS TIME...AND LARGE SLOTS BETWEEN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS STILL
OCCURRING. THE GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF ARE SHOWING MORE
INTENSIFICATION THAN EARLIER...BUT NONE OF THEM FORECAST A PEAK
INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 80 KT. THESE MODELS ARE CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...SO THERE IS
NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE
FORECAST... IT IS LIKELY THAT ALEX WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
80-85 KT BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HR FORECAST
POINTS.
READ IN FULL HERE
Hurricane Season 2010
Latest on Tropical Storm Alex
By Mark Vogan
Tropical Storm Alex continues to swirl in a northwest direction towards the northeast Mexican coast as also threatens the lower Texas coast. Questions continue to be asked.. will this system effect the oil still in the north-central Gulf significantly, will this storm hit South Texas and at what strength? As of this moment, it appears to me, that this stom first and foremost will have the greatest impact within the first 100 miles from the TX-MEX border, southwwards into Mexico, however 20 to as much as 50 miles north along the lower Texas coast with Brownsville as the greatest threat on the US side could recieve a large impact, even areas as far north as Corpus Christi may be impacted with a 3-way combo of wind, flooding rains and wave action.
I predict Alex to become at least a strong Category 1 hurricane by midday Wednesday and perhaps a category 2 storm before a late Wednesday night landfall.
LATEST NEWS ITEMS ON ALEX FROM ACCUWEATHER.COM
ACCUVIDEOS TODAY
Effects of Alex on South Texas
By Ken Reeves
Alex Will Be Dangerous for People of South Texas
Brownsville Prepares for Alex
Tropical Storm in the Gulf Could Halt Oil Spill Cleanup Operations
OTHER NEWS HEADLINES TODAY
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Full reservoirs mean South East of England hosepipe ban unlikely
BBC Weather
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
northeast
The recent 90s that have spread throughout the Northeast will continue today under mostly sunny but increasingly hazy skies as the Bermuda ridge and it's strong surface warming is forcing the vast amount of traffic that link these great cities to make poor quality as ground level ozone builds, however, a cold front will swing through this evening drawing cooler and drier air in for a much more comfortable day tomorrow! Afternoon thunderstorms may fire up late tonight as the arrival of cooler, drier air push through the big cities along the front. After near 80-degree lows again this morning, it will cool to the low and mid-60s by tomorrow morning, what a delight!
Mark's City-Cast as follows: Washington DC, Hi 94, Lo 69, Baltimore, Md, Hi 92, Lo 64, Philadelphia, Pa, Hi 92, Lo 66, New York, Ny, Hi 90, Lo 65, Boston, Ma, Hi 92, Lo 63.
southeast
It's going to be FANTASTIC this afternoon, yes there will be a substantial storm chance once again today, but the air will feel great!, well for the Gulf Coast it will anyway... Inland or 40-50 miles north of the Gulf Coast, it's going to be hot again with a 50% plus chance for afternoon thunderstorms for areas from Baton Rouge to Atlanta where highs should touch 90, A cold front is pushing down from the north and this should not only aid in increase storm chance today across northern and central Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and into the Carolinas, but will cool highs tomorrow, the air will be drier as well as pushing out the torrid heat. Highs may only hit the 80s tomorrow, rather than the 90s like we've seen for weeks now across the entire Southeast region.
WHY is it cooler near the Gulf Coast today, yet the cold front is way north? ALEX is spinning outer rain and cloud bands onshore to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and as far east as Florida's panhandle. The increase in wind and cloud as well as heavy rain showers progressing onshore throughout today and tonight is holding highs generally to the mid-80s, lows will still be in the mid-70s as the air is still very humid, perhaps making it remain uncomfortable outside, despite the cooler air temps.
Mark's City-Cast as follows: New Orleans, La, Hi 86, Lo 78 (heavy showers, cloudy), Atlanta, Ga, Hi 91, Lo 70 (PM or evening t-storms), Orlando, Fl, Hi 90, Lo 75 (PM t-storms), Tampa, Fl, Hi 90, Lo 79 (PM t-storms), Miami, Fl, Hi 90, Lo 80 (storms likely).
southwest
Another very hot, dry and beautifully sunny day throughout the entire West, perhaps a few scattered cumulus clouds over the Rockies but those will not produce rainfall. Highs expected today range from 60s and 70s for the Pacific beaches, 80s from LA to eastern suburbs of San Diego, 90s for the inland valleys and canyons as well as the Central Valley of California. As for the deserts, the low deserts should top the 110-115 range (lows in the low to upper 70s) and 105-110 for the high-elevation Mojave desert. Phoenix should be very warm but perhaps a little off yesterdays low 110s with around 110 today and a Low by morning of 84, Las Vegas should hit 107, perhaps even 108 and by morning, fall to around 84. Death Valley should warm to around 120 this afternoon, falling to around 105 by 10pm tonight, 95 by 1am, 88 by 4am and finally dipping to around 85 by 5am...
northwest
Though it will be another very sunny or mostly sunny day from Seattle to Portland and on eastwards into the Great Basin, highs will be cool, MUCH cooler for the coastal plain with only a high around 63 for Seattle, mid-70s for Portland, however EAST of the mountains it's going to be a hot one with highs well into the 90s for eastern Washington, Oregon and in and around 100 degrees for northern Utah, low 100s for southern Utah (106 for St George). Salt Lake may top 99, Denver a little cooler but a blazing sun and no cloud, hi around 92. Boise will be cool compared with yesterday 102. Hi today should be around 93-94. Reno, also cooler with high around 95 rather than 100. Even areas of Montana is likely to hit 100 today including Billings and Glasgow. Glasgow may in fact reach 105 this afternoon!
southern plains
A tropical feeling day with heavy showers and storms likely from midday throughout the rest of today as a front progresses south, raising moisture levels and therefore storm chance across all of Oklahoma and Texas. Highs remain warm with actually the hottest air being more south than north with Houston likely to top around 93 and Dallas may only top 88-90. Lows as usual will remain near 80 along the immediate Gulf Coast communities of Texas, mid-70s for Houston and points 20-50 miles inland from the Gulf and low to mid-70s for interior areas.
northern plains
Glasgow, Mt will top the 100s as the western high pushes north, the outher periphery of this high will push highs in the western Dakotas into the mid-80s, whilst far eastern Dakotas on eastwards will have a markedly different, cooler and more refreshing air mass. From Minneapolis to Chicago to Detroit, comfortably low humidity, 100% sunshine and low temperatures will exist as the Canadian high which is progressing as far south as Atlanta by this evening is holding highs across the region to only 70-75 degrees! Not bad for the end of June, enjoy this while you can as this is a rare summertime airmass... Note the vastly cooler air for St Louis with only low 80s today and lows down to near 60 degrees!!
Mark's City-Cast as follows: Minot, ND, Hi 85, Lo 65, Minneapolis, MN 72, Lo 62, Chicago, Il, Hi 75, Lo 57, Detroit, Mi, Hi 74, Lo 52. St Louis, Mo, 82, Lo 61.
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Alex to Start Impacting Brownsville Wednesday before Landfall
AccuWeather
VIDEO: Eastern Storms Gone, Turning Cooler
AccuWeather
Severe Thunderstorms Impacting Carolinas, Northern Rockies
AccuWeather
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
DOES THE UK HEAT CONTINUE?
After a peak high at Gravesend, Kent of 30.9C or 88 degrees F, the southern half of the UK and particularly the Greater London urban heat island continues to see very warm, settled weather with highs continuing to surpass the 80-degree mark. Yesterday saw a high of 84 degrees whilst to the north and across Scotland as well as N. Ireland, we see slightly cooler, cloudier and more unsettled weather as an area of low pressure effects pressure heights over the northern UK... Incidentally, yesterday cool 67-degree high here was warmed today to a muggy 75 degrees as the warmth pushes north. Tomorrow we may see more sunshine and indeed I expect highs to oush the mid-70s again before another shot of cooler weather digs down bringing an increased rainfall risk. 80s are likely to continue for the next 2-3 days down across the southern half of the British Isles.
Does the current warmth continue?
It appears to be a pattern in which a trough and cool pool of air will press against the Azores high down, stubbornly forcing dropping pressure heights over Scotland, N. Ireland and the north of England through at least the next 5-10 days. This will continue to keep a more unsettled patterns and therefore rain is possible on a regular basis.
As for England's southern half, it appears the upper 70s to mid-80s is likely to continue as this part of the country will be just in the right spot for the continued influence of the Azores High northern periphery, keeping highs above average.. I expect highs of at least 80 up until at least Saturday!
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 83 degrees at Heathrow (Greater London)
Low: 42 degrees at Dalwhinnie (Highland)
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 75 degrees
Low: 56 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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