2 June, 2010

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Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phet Nears Oman, May Curve to Pakistan
Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather
A strengthening and already very intense tropical cyclone may lead to a natural disaster, threatening millions of lives along the northern Arabian Seacoast in the Middle East Thursday into the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Phet, in the Arabian Sea, will pass over the coast of Oman tonight and Thursday, before shifting its track to the east, possibly bringing it near Karachi, Pakistan.


Phet, the equivalent of a category 4 hurricane, with its sustained winds of 145 mph and gusts to 175 mph as of Wednesday morning, EDT, was nearing the island of Masira just off the coast of Oman.
 scotland, europe

Scotland's bumper ski season ends with summer snow
BBC Weather
Skiing on Scotland's snow slopes looks set to continue into the summer month of June as new figures reveal the best season in 14 years.

canada, north america
Canadian forest fires spark alerts in Quebec and US
BBC Weather
Firefighters in Canada are battling more than 50 forest fires that have sparked smog alerts across Quebec and parts of the north-eastern US.

florida, u.s.a
Florida expects Gulf oil to hit Panhandle in 'a day or two'
CNN
Venice, Louisiana (CNN) -- Mats of weathered oil and tar balls from the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster could hit the western Florida Panhandle "in a day or two," Florida Gov. Charlie Crist said Wednesday.

Ash Cloud Looms over South Pacific
AccuWeather News
Vanuatu Island's Mount Yasur eruptions have affected both travel and health for for residents of the South Pacific.

According to AccuWeather.com meteorologists, upper-level winds appear to be taking any fresh ash from Mount Yasur southeastward away from much of New Zealand.

u.s.a, north america
Wildfires likely to flare in U.S. hot spots
USA Today
Parts of the desert Southwest, Alaska, northern Great Lakes and Gulf Coast are facing above-normal chances of significant wildfires this month, a federal agency says.

Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather

TROPICAL UPDATE VIDEO
Tropical Discussion: Several Tropical Waves Being Watched
Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather

Soaking Rain Invades the Northwest
AccuWeather

Nasty Thunderstorms Prowl areas from Texas to Upstate New York
AccuWeather

Torrential Downpours to Douse Chicago, Detroit
AccuWeather

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

TROPICS
NOTHING BREWING IN THE IMMEDIARE FUTURE, THOUGH THERE ARE FEATURES WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON

At the moment the Caribbean and even Gulf airspace is somewhat hostile to tropical development as upper level wind shear is strong, blowing from Pacific into the Caribbean, not uncommon at this time of year and especially with a collapsing El Nino. However, this type of unfavorable environment is likely to change as the seasonal changes take place through June and the El Nino dissipates, waters in this region will continue warming further and combined with an atmospheric environment which sees a decrease in mid and upper-level shear we will need to be concerned when waves do progress from the open tropical Atlantic push into the Caribbean Sea and through the straits of Florida into the Gulf.

Though no models are showing anything, there are a series of open waves progressing east to west across the ITCZ or Inte-tropical-convergence-zone and all these clusters of cloud and thunderstorms will need to be monitored. We do see a large, fairly strong (in appearence) cluster of thunderstorms that's just pushed off the west African coast, south of the Cape Verde islands and this looks like a more interesting, eye-catching feature.

Stay tuned as I will bring you regular tropical updates.

EXCELLENT BBQ WEATHER BETWEEN THURS AND THIS WEEKEND
AN AZORES HIGH TO RULE BRITISH AIRSPACE UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY

It's nice to see the high from the south build back north and over us, presenting us with more warm temperatures. Tomorrow sees the return to mid to upper 70s from southern and central England and Wales as well as perhaps the Rep of Ireland, and low 70s across Northern Ireland and interior Scotland. All UK coastal areas will remain pleasant with low to mid-60s with perhaps only upper 50s along the East Coast where an east wind may blow. We also may see even lower readings across the far north, Orkney and Shetland as clouds and rain will persist.

Both Glasgow and Edinburgh should warm to around 72 degrees tomorrow and Friday with some surrounding spots perhaps warming to near 75 degrees. Penrith to Manchester, low to mid-70s and central-southern England and central Wales towns and cities may see mid to upper 70s. I do expect to see the odd 80, if not tomorrow, one of these days between Thurs and Sun. 

Stay tuned as I shall keep you updated on the return of warmth to Britain.

DON'T WORRY CALIFORNIANS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST RESIDENTS, THE COOL, DAMP WEATHER OF SPRING IS HISTORY, WELL UNTIL FALL AS TWIN HIGHS (SOUTHWEST & SOUTHEAST) INTENSIFY

It's apparent the high is building FINALLY over the prime hot spot of the USA (Desert Southwest) as well as over the western Atlantic basin, forcing hotter air across southern Florida and into Texas where highs in the southern plains should continue warming. The typical heating is continuing across the Southeast with your classic 80s from Montgomery to Atlantic and generally upper 80s to around 90 from Beaumont to Biloxi with dew points generally surging towards the 80 degree mark. From Hou to Dallas we are seeing the builing of a major heat wave which will stretch and join from Palm Springs to Dallas. Highs from Houston to OK City are likely to push 100 degrees, with interior Texas taking a run at 105-110. Death Valley may be looking at 115 degrees in the coming days and Phoenix seeing 105-110, Vegas 100-105 as pressure heights build into the 590dc heights.

The rainy cool weather is now gone in this region and these temps, combined with cloudfree days are now common and expected for this time of year. Highs will warm in LA and become hot as you progress inland, particularly, east of the coast range.

Stay tuned as I shall keep you updated as the heat builds across the Southwest and America as a whole.
Vagaries of the Weather
India & sub-continental Asia Weather
Rajesh Kapadia

"Phet" Update: 6pm IST

"PHET" has strengthened further to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm during the last 6 hours. Current location is 18.2N 60.0E about 300 Kms South East of Oman Coast. Winds are at 125 Knots with Central pressure of about 929 Mb. The Wave height is 7 meters. Defying all predictions, of re-curving at 62E, it has moved North-Northwest continuously, and has progressed towards Oman. It is expected to strengthen further and track mainly North- Northwestwards direction for the next 24 to 36 hours. Now, it is expected to initially strike the North-Eastern coast of Oman in the next 24 hrs.
The re-curving promise holds good still. After striking Oman, the storm is predicted to move North-East back into the Arabian Sea. The influence of Western Disturbance has to be watched carefully to see how this system tracks after 36 hours. Various Forecast models are differing on the final track "PHET.''

It is important for all Arabian Sea coastline countries from Oman, Iran, Pakistan & India to be watchful and closely monitor "PHET" for any track changes.

Saurashtra & Gujarat:

Even though "Phet" is more than 1100 Kms. from Saurashtra Coast, due to the Intensity of this system, we can expect windy conditions and scattered rains in pockets for Saurashtra due to the the moisture incursion from Arabian Sea..

Oman:

"PHET" is only 300 Kms South-East of Oman Coast and due to the proximity precautions about very windy conditions as well as flash flooding due to rains need to be taken. Most Forecast models are expecting a Recurve North Eastwards after 36 hours.

Read our partner's blog in Full Here


What's Reaching Today's Blogs?

Dangerous Category 4 TC Phet Threatens Oman
Jim Andrews, International Weather Blog, AccuWeather

Sloshing Waves in the Water Tank We Call the Atmosphere
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather

Closeup Views of the Quebec Fires from Space and Ground
Brett Anderson, Canada Weather, AccuWeather

A Welcome Lack of "Weather"
Paul Douglas Weather Blog

Study Implicates Sunspots in Hurricane Forecasts
Northeast Quadrant

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 106 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 28 degrees at Bellemont, AZ

Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of Met Office

High: 73 degrees at Wisley (Surrey)
Low: 36 degrees at Katesbridge (Co Down)

Today's Extremes here at my house

High: 64 degrees
Low: 49 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark