Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Check out the Facebook page for a Video-Blog by Mark Vogan discussing the UK's taste of Autumn next week as well as the tropics!
A Model look at the next 10-20 days across the tropics
A VERY ACTIVE MAPAT THE STATISTICAL HEART OF THE HURRICANE SEASON
By Mark Vogan
(1) TROPICAL STORM IGOR
As Igor progresses slowly westwards away from the Cape Verde Islands having produced winds of up to 56mph on the islands and progresses in the heart of the tropical Atlantic, it will likely develop further but slowly. The reason for it's slow development is thanks to a low off to it's northeast which is presenting Igor with shear and actually competition but as this low gets further away from Igor, the shear should drop off and allow this system to intensify into what should be a hurricane by Saturday or perhaps Sunday depending upon whether Igor can get far enough and quick enough away from the low to it's NE. Also it's farward speed which grinded to a halt for a time should pick up, but the flow Igor is embedded within is slow moving and therefore it should still be in the central basin by late weekend into next week.
By 214 hours, the ECMWF model predicts Igor to "bomb-out" as the closed, circles of isobars tighten up to being barely visible and this portrays a very powerful hurricane Igor, perhaps intensifying it to cat 4 or even 5 strength at 214 hours, located southeast of Bermuda and way north of the Leewards over the southwest Atlantic. It appears the ECMWF is recurving Igor at this point as it's well north of where it's westward track position was earlier on, whether one of the several troughs crossing to the north of the Atlantic high's is strong enough for Igor to "feel" and find a way out is far too early to tell of course.. Friend and Meteorologist Frank Strait of AccuWeather said on his video blog last night, that he wonders whether Igor's track would be too far south in order for a northern trough to grab hold of it... Indeed if Igor does track due west for the next 7-10 days, then it's likely the troughs, no matter how strong and how much they break the ridge, yes it may fail to turn the system north and therefore we may have a danger in the Caribbean and Gulf perhaps NEXT weekend, some 15-20 days from now!.
(2) REMNANTS OF GASTON
The remnants of Gaston, no matter how poor looking of radar, continues to push westwards and now appears to be impacting Haiti and on towards Jamaica later today, bringing squally, showery weather here. My issue is that a little sneeky wave/distrubance such as this, at this time of year when the atmosphere can be conductive and waters about at there peak heat and energy potential, these systems can flare fast and furious if the right trigger catches up with them and all it takes is a window of oppertunity, an area perhaps a couple of hundred miles in width where the waters are undisturbed, very warm and very deep, and with no shear or upper lows nearby to deter things. I wonder whether Gaston can refire, if it manages to get clear of land and gets out over the mid to upper 80-degree waters of the northwest Caribbean Sea and take aim at perhaps the southern Gulf or Yucatan as a notable system next week?
Most models aren't picking up on Gaston regenerating but I don't think it should be ruled out given the overall pattern and such high energy potential currently in place across this part of the world, given the fact that most other tropical basins are shut down this years and therefore all the concentration of activity is in the Atlantic. Where Gaston is tracking, this is the warmest, deepest waters in all of the Atlantic, therefore the potential here shouldn't be ignored or denied.
(3) WEAK LOW OVER WINDWARD ISLANDS HEADING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
The National Hurricane Center has given this weak low spinning over the Windward Islands a 40% chance for development within the next 48 hours.
(4) AS BIG IF NOT A BIGGER CONCERN FOLLOWING IGOR
The system which is exiting or will exist off western Africa's coast along the easterly jet will highly likely intensify into a storm and hurricane, following suit of Igor in the sense that this like we're seeing with Igor will slowly develop (but then again if there's no competing low nearby, then perhaps not) and could follow what could be a cat 3-4 or even 5 storm in 10-days, also a a major storm. The ECMWF model predicts two powerful hurricanes, one over the western Atlantic (Igor) and this system, the secondary over the central Atlantic, also as a hurricane. Certainly going by the models, these two storms appear to be far enough away that they don't inhibit each other's development potential.
The problem with this secondary system is that with enough distance and the fact that Igor may not recurve like the ECMWF is portraying in the 200 hour period from now, then there's no reason to dispute a potential massive problem to the US, from anywhere say, from Florida or the Carolinas to anywhere along the Gulf Coast. Sayt Igor tracks towards New Orleans, then it's likely or at least there's a good chance that the follower will track in a similar path and in that case, say Igor, threatens the Central or western Gulf as a major storm, then there may be a secondary major hit 4-7 days later!
Related Stories
This is the GFS model's interpretation of the tropical Atlantic on Wednesday, Sept. 15, 2010. Igor is the "L" in the middle. The other two trouble makers lie to the left and right of Igor.
Three Hurricanes May Prowl the Atlantic Next Week
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Ozarks Feeling Mean Hermine Rains, Flooding
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
BREAKING NEWS: HERMINE CAUSES HAVOC!
Tornado narrowly misses Downtown Dallas!
Floodwaters recede, cleanup begins after tornado narrowly misses downtown Dallas
The Dallas News
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
This map is Doppler radar's interpretation of Hermine total rainfall as of Thursday midday, September 9, 2010. The Boston Mountains in northern Arkansas seemed to have received the worst so far in the region.
Severe Weather Threatens Northern, Central Plains
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Ozarks Feeling Mean Hermine Rains, Flooding
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
After a taste of summer again and then a stormy 2-3 day period to follow, next week may be an early taste of autumn with potentially crisp days and cold nights and a share of wet, windy days also
coming shortly!
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Thursday, September 09, 2010
In a day of speedy movement, the hitherto sluggish low, has moved at super speed from M.P.yesterday thru North Mah. and Gujarat today, and now over Gujarat in the evening. The correspnding clouding and rain related to this system has moved thru N,Mah. and Gujarat, today, and shifted location to western Gujarat and adjoining Sindh coast. Today's rain (Thursday) is restricted only to this "catchment" region of the system.(NRL map).
That was fast. Even before I could pre-pone my forecast it has be-littled all estimates and moved away as if being chased out.
Expected to move away west into the sea by tomorrow, (making a bold attempt to forecast this low :), it should precipitate heavy showers along the Kutch and Sindh coast and Karachi.
In the rear of this system, it is expected that having sucked in much moisture, we may expect very little rain in the coming 3/4 day for the entire peninsula region and central regions of india.
The off shore trough along the west coast too is "tired" now, and not expected to be too active next 3/4 days. Albiet we can get just about 5-10 mms/day along the coastal cities.
However, the monsoon axis will be along the Rajasthan-Delhi-NorthM.P.-Jharkhand belt, and these regions would get some rain (not heavy).
"Widhrawal Symptoms":
In the next 2 days we see the monsoon anchor, the Sindh low, becoming 1000/1002 mb. This is normally at 994 mb in
full season, and has been at 998 mb since last week. IMD/GFS map.
We also see in some international models, the 200 hpa jet streams slipping a little below the 30N line, and becoming westerlies in Pakistan from the 11th./12th.
Initial signs of monsoon
moving out from the extreme west and Sindh region would be from early
next week. Say, after the current system,low, has finished its job in coastal Sindh.
READ OUR PARTNER'S BLOG IN FULL HERE!
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
3-D Radar Images From Dallas Tornado
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
How did My Summer Forecast Work Out?
Brett Anderson, Canada Expert, AccuWeather
Flash Flooding the Big Story.. Severe Weather in the Plains
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 101 degrees at Laredo, TX
Low: 16 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 73 degrees at Killowen
Low: 40 degrees at Shap
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 68 degrees
Low: 54 degrees
TODAY'S COND
A generally pleasant day with periods of warm sunshine and also periods of clouds, even some isolated, heavy showers which moved through, however it was a day which started nice and ended the same way.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
No comments:
Post a Comment