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On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
A WINTER 2010-2011 IDEAS SPECIAL
COMING OCTOBER 31, 2010
MARK VOGAN'S UNITED KINGDOM & EUROPE WINTER 2010-2011 FORECAST
Combination of Factors Could Mean Frigid Winters in 2012, 2013, 2014
AccuWeather News
Winter Forecast 2010-2011: Heavier Snow for Chicago, Minneapolis and Detroit, Normal Snowfall for NYC, Philly and D.C.
AccuWeather News
La Niña Could Mean More Santa Ana Winds this Fall
AccuWeather News
Mark Vogan Predicts a Severe Winter ahead from Alaska to Lower Midwest
I am going to give you a little snippet of my winter idea for the US...
North America's core from Fairbanks to Chicago may be in for the worst winter in years when combining the three months of meteorological winter with persistently low temperatures and heavy and persistent snows. I do believe between Dec 15 through Jan 15 where a cold wave hits that may bring temperatures close to or beloe -50 in the Dakotas and Minnesota as well as areas over the Rockies. Minneapolis may approach their -24 seen back in January 2004 and Chicago may take a run or even surpass the frigid low of -18 recorded two winters ago!!
As for the East, it won't be near as snowy for the Mid-Atlantic but further north into New England, including Boston may experience a good snow year as the boundary between warm and cold will be overhead. I do see a cold blast which beats any low numbers seen across at East since at least 5 years, therefore I do believe Boston may get down to or below zero, wind chills from DC to New York will be into the -10s and lows may approach zero, the last night this happened was January 2004!
The South will be generally warm and pleasant from Southern California to Florida. The heartland will see it's fair share of icestorms and snowstorms when that cold air try to get south.
Stay tuned... Full forecast coming October 31, 2010
TODAY IN THE TROPICS
Today Marks Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
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Today's Weather across America
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Rain Heading for the East This Weekend
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Hermine Downpours Reach Kentucky, Tennessee
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Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
A Rollercoaster end to summer 2010 for the UK
It could be sunshine and 70s and an Indian summer end or it could be a taste of Autumn...
Yesterday's ECMWF model run portrayed the arrival of a fairly strong trough into the UK by the mid point of next week and as it deepened, it would funnel a strong northerly flow of air straight from the Arctic. By purely looking at the map I believed that if what it was portraying held true then much of Scotland and much of Britain in fact would be feeling more like autumn as cold winds and highs which would barely get out of the low 50s would bring in the first real taste of autumn. I believed a day or two may produced gales and heavy rain which would sweep across the country and once departed and skies cleared out, we may indeed find ourselves shivering by morning with the first lows down to freezing!
Well, today, that same model run for Wednesday 15th has backed off on the drop in the deep trough, in fact the runs for the same timeframe next week (wed through Sat) actually tries to see a ridge build in from the west, this would bring a much different look and feel the the weather next week and in fact would likely present more 70-degree weather..
So, do we find ourselves chillin out with the arrival of a more autumnal weather pattern or do we find ourselves basking in some late summer sun, perhaps bringing out and dusting down the BBQ?
We're at that time of year when we could see 70s by day and even mild mid to even upper 50 degree nights, more than pleasant enough for evening outdoor BBQ's and socialising with friends and family, grabbing hold of the last glimpses of summer or on the other hand we may be finding ourselves battling November-like winds from the north, driving drenching rains, holding daytime highs barely above 50 and even nights that when clear chill to freezing bringing frost and an early taste of autumn or even, worst case, winter! Of course we normally don't usually see frost until early October but I've seen it as early as Mid-September across the Central Belt, however August 2010 indeed presented us with that rare case of temps dropping into the 30s and frost forming.. First time I've seen it as cold, so early!!
Uusually by October, under high pressure, especially ones that drop in from more northerly latitudes, we find days crisp and cool, highs holding perhaps around 50 (10C) and a slight breeze which makes you glad you've a jacket on. Nights tend to become cold as soon as the sun drops and often that dew which forms by 6pm starts to ice over slighty, by morning we awaken to frosted cars, grassy surfaces, you see your breathe!, but pavements that have been warmed all summer remain frost and ice free, those surfaces take another few weeks to drop temperatures enough in the tarmac, stone and concrete for frost to form of those surfaces... when frost forms more on the road and pavement surfaces and trees near naked, then you know winter has arrived!
You'll also notice, bodies of water, rivers, streams, lochs etc, steam under those clear, calm autumn skies at night, all that mild air by day escaping back to space and the heat collected throughout the summer months collide with the increasing chillier air above it's surface, therefore steam rises, the air drawing the heat out of the body of water and eventually that water will have cooled enough in order for ice to form on it's surface by late November and December!
I must admit, Autumn in a berautiful time of year, when that air becomes fresher, cleaner even.. and the leaves turn golden and all other types of colours and indeed once those winds start to pick up as we head towards November, the trees become barer and barer...
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Friday, September 10, 2010
With the low moving thru Kutch, the desert regions and rest of Gujarat were (again) battered by very heavy rains.
No explanations needed.Here are the 24 hrs rain amounts in cms. for Gujarat:
Gujarat region :- Dholka – 36; Barwala, Umagaon-17
each; Dhandhuka, Ranpur, Daman – 15 each; Kamrej – 12; Navsari – 11; Amod, Hansot – 10 each
Dohad, Petlad, Tarapur, VV Nagar, Dediapada, Nandod, Pardi, Gandevi, Olpad – 9 each; Baroda,
Bodeli, Valsad, Vapi, Jalalpur, Bardoli, Khambhat, Mehmadabad – 8 each; Anand, Matar, Ankleshwar,
Silvassa, Mangrol, Palsana – 7 each; Valod, Rajpipla, Dharam
pur, Vagra – 6 each. 5cm and less
rainfall recorded at a number of places.
Saurashtra–Kutch :- Jamnagar-13; Vallabhipur – 12; Kutch-Mandvi-11; Limbdi, Botad, Porbandar,
Okha – 9 each; Bhavnagar, Gogha, Kutiana, Dhrol, Lalpur, Rajkot – 8 each; Ranavav-7; Keshod,
Dhrangandra, Umrala, Kalawad, Jasdan, Upleta – 6 each; Kodina
r, Veraval, Chotila, Kharaghoda,
Lakhtar, Sihor – 5 each; Babra, Lathi, Sutrapada, Halvad, Palitana, Dwarka, Jodia, Kalyanpur, Gondal,
Abdasa, Naliya – 4 each. 3 cm and less rainfall recorded at a number of places.
Since the low has merged with the seasonal low over Sindh, rains have spread
into the South Rajasthan. (Uni.of Wisconsin map).
In the sindh region of Pakistan, good rains are reported, with North Karachi getting 36 mms of rain yesterday.
On moving into drier areas, I expect the low to fizzle out within next 24 hrs. Hence subsequent decrease in rainfall in Gujarat/Karachi region from tomorrow,
SWM shifts into +ve Zone:
The overall all India statistics for the monsoon rain is now +1%. Shifting into the plus zone is good, but it is very important to see alongwith if there is any r
egion still in the deficit.
The map is clear and self explanatory.
The situation is particularly bad in Jharkhand where rainfall deficit is touching 50%.
It has been very obvious this year that the monsoon’s bounty has been generous to largely dry areas of west Rajasthan and Kutch/Saurashtra getting 54 and 106% more rains this year.
While The monsoon starters of Kerala and coastal Karnataka witnessed lesser rains this season.
Withdrawal signs:
The monsoon usually starts receding from Western Rajasthan from Sept 1. However this year, this region has been receiving rainfall upto 10th. of September. IMD has stated in its latest updates that it might be a bit late in the monsoon witdhrawing. NCEP is of similar opinion and expects a withdrawal from Northwest India only after 15th of September.
Current analysis show the 200 hpa jet streams having moved very marginally south of 30N. But, on the western side, in Pakistan, we see the jet streams westerlies below 30N, as on Friday. And, as discussed yesterday, the seasonal low in Sindh is becoming 1000 mb, and maybe going up to 1002 mb by Monday.
I would back on a witdhdrawal from Pakistan and Western Rajasthan from Monday or Tuesday.
Further witdhrawal, southwards will be monitored stage wise.
A low is forecasted to form in the bay around the 14th. If true, then as per the above developments, the low may just skirt off north/north-eastwards. But ,another factor to estimate the track, is to see and observe is the axis alighnment as on that date.
Too early to discuss these permutations today !
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What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Extremes in Rainfall
Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather
Cory Pesaturo's Winter 2009-2010 Summary
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 63 degrees
Low: 54 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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