On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
A now weaker Cat 3 Earl appears to be taking an eastward turn, Will this hold true for the Outer Banks?
With fluctuations in intensity and the decay of the eye, Earl is still a serious threat to the Outer Banks and is expected to produce at least hurricane-force gusts, bring 20-30 foot waves onshore and unless several inches of rains. I still hold to the fact that despite Earl's come-and-go with the eye and it's replacement EAST of where it was, this may be a wobble and that is something to consider and not lead folks into a false sense of security, although this would be great if holds true as the worst of Earl's wrath would likely remain offshore of the coast altogether.
Currently at cat 3 with sustained winds of 115mph, Earl is drawing in dry air off the continent as I explained in my video, recorded earlier today and whether this system manages to intensify or even weaken further as it becomes more associated and attached with the hostile westerlies remains to be seen.
Anywhere from the southern Outer Banks to the northern tip of Cape Cof should prepare for a HURRICANE IMPACT and right now, given all the factors currently in place, Cape Cod appears as of this moment, the most vunerable to an actual "hurricane-hit" as the system may come closest or cross the Cape as at least a cat 1 storm. However, in saying that, Earl may do one of two things tonight... either approach closely to the Outer Banks, producing a glancing blow and bring hurricane force winds ashore or it may wobble back further west and actually make an official landfall therefore winds would be stronger onshore. The Cape Cod and islands off the New England coast needs to be ready for a hurricane as this system is steaming towards them as well as threatening the Carolina coast. Points in between, including Jersey, Long Island, Connecticut and Rhose Island should prepare for generally heavy seas, 1-2 inch rains at the least (possibily 4-6 inches locally) and winds gusting to between 50-100 miles per hour, strongest right on the coast...
Earl Weakens Some
ACCUWEATHER'S TROPICAL DICUSSION
Earl is a Category 3 hurricane as it comes ever closer to North Carolina's Outer Banks. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Hurricane Earl was located at 32.5 north, 75.2 west, or 185 miles south of Cape Hatteras, N.C. Earl has maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and is tracking north at 18 mph. Its minimum central pressure is now around 947 millibars, or 27.96 inches.
Hurricane warnings are in effect from Bogue Inlet, N.C., northeastward to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. A hurricane warning is also in effect for the coast of Massachusetts from Westport eastward around Cape Cod to Hull, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket Island. A hurricane watch is in effect for north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Henlopen, Del. Tropical storm warnings are in effect from Cape Fear to west of Bogue Inlet, N.C. Tropical storm warnings are also in effect from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Sandy Hook, N.J. This includes Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach and the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort. A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the coast of Long Island, N.Y., from Fire Island Inlet northward and eastward to Port Jefferson Harbor, encompassing much of central and eastern Long Island and from New Haven, Conn., to west of Westport, Conn., including Block Island. A tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Hull, Mass., to Eastport, Maine. A hurricane watch is now in effect for Nova Scotia from Medway Harbour to Digby. A tropical storm watch is in effect for New Brunswick from just west of Fort Lawrence westward to the border of the United States and Canada. Finally, a tropical storm watch is also in effect for the coast of Nova Scotia from Ecum Secum to Medway Harbour.
Earl remains a strong and dangerous Category 3 hurricane as satellite imagery continues to show deep convection and a uniform central dense overcast. However, Earl is currently undergoing eyewall replacement which has resulted in the winds diminishing slightly. Earl is moving nearly due north now, but over the next 6-12 hours. This will bring the eye along or just west of 75 west later Thursday, and then the storm will move northward parallel to 75 west before eventually making a turn off to the northeast late Thursday night into Friday. Large waves of 7-10 feet will batter much of the Southeast coast Thursday with waves of up to 20-25 feet impacting the Outer Banks by Thursday night as the center makes its closest approach to Cape Hatteras late Thursday night and early Friday morning. Several inches of rainfall combined with a 3- to 6-foot storm surge will cause flooding Thursday night, with the highest surge being between Hatteras Island and Kitty Hawk on the North Carolina coastline. The threat for rough surf and rip currents will extend into mid-Atlantic and New England coastal areas Thursday, and will persist through Friday. As Earl accelerates off to the northeast Friday and Friday night, near hurricane-force winds will impact Cape Cod and the nearby islands as the eye passes less than 50 miles off to the southeast of Cape Cod Friday night.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fiona continues to move quickly off to the north-northwest at 17 mph away from the northern Leeward Islands. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Fiona was centered near 25.6 north, 66.4 west, or about 475 miles south of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure in Fiona is 1002 millibars, or 29.59 inches. A general track to the north-northwest should continue through this evening with Fiona, making more of a Fiona may approach Bermuda by Friday night and Saturday, and a tropical storm warning is now in effect for the island of Bermuda. Fiona will be fighting through hostile shear, so any further strengthening should be slow.
Tropical Depression Gaston weakens to a remnant low in the far eastern Atlantic and will be no threat to land through at least Monday. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, the depression was located near 13.5 north, 39.5 west, or 1,465 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 30 mph, and the estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 millibars, or 29.80 inches. Gaston is moving to the west at 7 mph. Convection has greatly diminished around Gaston as it is encountering a pocket of dry air to the north and west, and buoy data in the vicinity currently does not support tropical storm status. This, along with some southwesterly wind shear in its path, will likely inhibit much strengthening over the next 24 hours. Despite Gaston's current weakened state, a gradual intensification phase is expected to resume over the next day or so as it heads west into a more conducive environment. Gaston could become a hurricane early next week.
By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck
From the National Hurricane Center
Hurricane EARL Public Advisory
Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion
ACCUWEATHER'S HURRICANE EARL NEWS
A " Wall of Wind" Moving Toward Eastern North Carolina
By Jesse Ferrell, Meteorologist/Community Director
Watching Earl in New York, New Jersey and Maryland
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 115 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 20 degrees at Pleasant Valley, MT
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 70 degrees
Low: 55 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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