Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
HOW STRONG CAN HERMINE BECOME BEFORE HITTING LAND TONIGHT?
By Mark Vogan
The good news about Tropical Storm Hermine is that it's not got room to intensify too much, the bad news is, that this system is dangerous in the fact that it's got a set-up surrounding, above and below that may intensify this system enough to bring a surprisingly hard punch to either northern Mexico or even extreme South Texas at the mouth of the Rio Grande.
What I mean by that is that with the location in which Hermine has formed, almost popping up out of nowhere, this system has many factors going for it in which it could well intensify into a hurricane BEFORE it comes ashore, despite forming in-close to the coast.
It's over very warm waters, it's got a curved land mass to it's west and northwest, this can actually "tighten" these circulations enough to bring core surface pressures down, raise winds speeds and indeed intensify the storm rapidly, that is what happened with Alex and indeed Humberto and it wouldn't be a big surprise if Hermine came ashore sometime tonight as a category 1 hurricane, if not a 70 mph tropical storm as those warm waters (unchurned), the low sheared atmospheric environment within the system and surrounding and the shape of the Mexico-Texas coastline is enough to produce a hurricane out of this. These systems can go down as "Texas-Tightners" and this may be no exception....
LINK ON TROPICAL STORM HERMINE
Tropical Storm Hermine to Slam Onshore This Evening
AccuWeather News
Hermine's Flood Danger, Even Well After Landfall
AccuWeather News
OTHER TROPICAL NEWS STORIES
Gaston: Rebirth Possible, Leeward Islands Squalls Definite
AccuWeather News
IN OTHER NEWS
An aerial view shows flooding south of Guatemala City. More than 40 people reportedly have died in heavy rains and landslides. Courtesy of CNN
Death toll continues to climb in Guatemala landslides
CNN
Torrential Rains and Gales to progress into Scotland tonight after impacting Northern Ireland, Wales and southwest England today!
See Weather Talk below
USA catches a break this year with mild wildfire season
USA Today
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Locally Severe Thunderstorms to Rattle Upper Midwest
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Warmth of Summer Heading East Tuesday
AccuWeather
Powerful Storm Hits the Plains with Wind, Stormy Weather
By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
Whilst Northern Ireland, Wales and southwest England gets hammered by horrizontal rains and spreads north and east through today and tonight, Scotland remains breezy and dry, for now but that's about to change!
It's all thanks to an area of low pressure which I question is in-part a piece of energy and low pressure that was absorbed over the North Atlantic which was once Hurricane Danielle.
Throughout the course of today, as expected by forecasters, heavy rain and strong to even gale-force winds roared across western areas with an area from Northern Ireland down across the Irish Sea into Wales and the southwest of England which bore the brunt of the truely stormy conditions. As today progressed, the cold front that's sliding northeastwards, out ahead of the main low pressure centre which lies behind the fairly strong front has pushed the band of very heavy rain and strong southeast winds which are blowing out just ahead of the front and created thanks to cooler air associated with the trough and warm, moister air that's being propelled north, the collision of air is producing some very strong winds and indeed unleashing very heavy rainfall.
Winds have been relatively light throughout the course of the day for the Central Belt from Glasgow to Edinburgh and even up into the Highlands with little or no rain to speak of. This is thanks to the cold front and main area of low pressure remaining to the south and west, tonight, the band of heavy weather will likely progress and arrive into the Central Belt tonight whilst the northern Pennines of England get battered by flooding rains and gale to even perhaps hurricane-force winds, I wouldn't be surprised if exposed east or south facing hilltops and exposed areas of the North Sea coast see wind speeds in excess of 75 mph in spots.
Currently it remains dry here in Lennoxtown, East Dumbartonshire, just north of Glasgow as well as across the Lowlands between Glasgow and Edinburgh but winds do appear to be getting brisker and the heavy band of rain that's been progressing northwards through today isn't far to our south, therefore I am expecting temperatures to possibly rise a little as the warmer, more southerly air gets transported north, just ahead of the front, winds to touch near or at gale force throughout the Scottish Central Belt between 12 midnight and 4am and heavy, even torrential rains to begin arriving creating a tough overnight drive for folks.
After temps rising into the 60s, as the cold front either swings through or stalls for a period of hours before pushing northwards and bringing gales and hurricane force winds to the Grampians and very heavy rains, I believe here across the Central Bale tbetween Glasgow and Edinburgh with worse conditions up by Perth, Dundee and Aberdeen, rains will be persistent, winds fresh to strong and it will remain that way for a period of time tomorrow before easing slightly by late afternoon or evening tomorrow night!
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Goodland, Kansas Heat Burst Last Night
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
Was Earl a Hurricane at Landfall?
Brett Anderson, Canada Expert, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 111 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 17 degrees at Stanley, ID
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 71 degrees at Topcliffe
Low: 50 degrees at Santon Downham
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 64 degrees
Low: 53 degrees
TODAY'S COND
An overall dry, cloudy day with a brisk easterly winds ahead of an Atlantic low.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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