On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Mark Vogan's Video Blog from Lennox Forest (just south of Lennoxtown) East Dumbartonshire, Scotland
TALK ABOUT A RAPID FORWARD SPEED! EARL'S RACING AT 47 MPH.....
By Mark Vogan
After Earl's assault at Nova Scotia, Canada bringing winds of up to 70 mph and with a forward speed in excess of 40mph it hit producing "severe tropical storm conditions" across much of Nova Scotia as it made landfall early Saturday morning after passing by Martha's Vineyard off Massachussetts by 105 miles to the southeast earlier bringing little in the way of damage, flooding and brought only minor power outages across Cape Cod. Only Nova Scotia saw a storm that actually lived up to the hype it created as it became a category 4 storm between Puerto Rico and Cape Hattaras, supporting winds up to 145-mph, with higher gusts, the system decayed substantially after "peaking in intensity" off the southeast coast and even brought minor effects to Cape Hattaras earlier in the week.
Increased wind shear, dry air flowing off the US mainland and wrapping into Earl's circulation likely brough the unexpected speed in which the system weakened.. remembering that Earl was expected to still be potentially a cat 1, even cat 2 as it passed by Massachussetts and the Northeast coast, waters though cooler as it went north I don't think was the factor in which it weakened so much but more the two factors already mentioned in this paragraph.
STRONGER HIT BY TRANSITIONING EARL ON SE QUEBEC THAT EXPECTED?
As Earl progresses northwards and it's forward speed at a rip-roaring 47 mph but with core winds still at 65 mph, southeast Quebec may be in for a stronger impact from the transitioning tropical into extra-tropical storm than even Nova Scotia saw early Saturday as sometimes the infusion of energy between baroclinic properties (jet stream) and the remnant warm-core energy can often be transfered in wind enery to release the excess energy, presenting a powerful gale-center for settlements of extreme SE Quebec, this combo of ingredients coming together right over SE Quebec for a secondary landfall on Canada may bring the worst conditions seen yet by Earl... though waves and surge won't be as powerful as the exposed south coast of Nova Scotia which endured hundreds of miles of wave build-up out of the south and finally coming ashore along the south coast of Nova Scotia.
OTHER NEWS STORIES ON EARL
Earl Weakened to Remnant Low over Atlantic Canada
AccuWeather News
Earl's Lashing: From Carribbean Islands to Atlantic Canada
AccuWeather News
Weakened Earl Hits Mass. with Wind, Rain, Surf
The Weather Channel
IN OTHER NEWS TODAY
New Zealand region nervous after powerful quake
CNN
Another Autumn-Like Day for the Northeast
AccuWeather News
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
Dropsonde's dispersed by Aircraft Recon recorded winds of 199 mph within Earl at it's peak!
The amazing Image taken by NOAA of powerful Category Four Hurricane Earl on Wednesday night when the 199mph gust was recorded at "flight level" by the Hurricane Hunters.
The Weather Channel's Carl Parker whilst talking on an earlier broadcast about the tropics, mentioned that the NHC's Hurricane Hunter aircraft during one of their mission's into Earl whilst the storm was at category 4 intensity on Wednesday night dropped a recording instument called a "dropsonde" and this relayed the information back to the team on the aircraft, the top "flight-level" wind speed was recorded at close to 150mph but what was more startling was a gust recorded at 199mph! Of course this wind speed wasn't a surface windspeed but more likely several hundred or more feet above the turbulent surface of the Atlantic Ocean between Puerto Rico and Cape Hattaras.
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Saturday, September 04, 2010
A low pressure area descended from UAC status to MSL, and formed off the Orissa/South A.P.coast on 3rd.
By the 4th.I see the low as having moved inland, as per the Thai Met map. At 1200 UTC, 4th.Sept, it seems to be over the Orissa/North A.P./Vidharbha region, and at 996 mb. Quite deep in such a short period of time.
To that effect, we see extensive nimbo cumulus clouds over Vidharbah/NorthA.P. region.
Now, the rainfall during the 4th. was quite intensive in rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan region, due to the western end of the monsoon axis. Also this end is strong and effective as an UAC has formed embedded in the axis.
Along the axis we see active precipitation.Clouding seems to be in the south
-western quadrant of the current system.
And as a result, rains in Vidharbha and North A.P. are extensive. (see NRL map).
Things moving almost in sequence with vagaries forecast.
Now, I have mentioned that the system is not expected to survive much longer. I maintain the estimate of the low to fizzle out somewhere in the M.P. area by tomorrow evening itself.
On the 6th, another sea level (land) low is expected to form in the NorthOrissa/Jharkhand region. Lasting only 24-36 hrs, this system may bring some relief rains to the region. Should move to the North-West, where it might just shift for a day, and some precipitation around.
In simpler terms, heavy rainfall in interior Mah/West M.P/ Northern A.P..on 5th. Medium rains in interior Mah/Jharkhand and U.P./M.P. and Delhi on 6th/7th.
Rainfall lessening substantially in South A.P./Orissa and T.N. subsequently from Sunday.
Western coast will get some heavy rains, specially in Karnataka/Konkan and south Gujarat coasts on Sunday 5th/6th. due to off shore trough actvating a bit (with a vortex).
Monsoon low in the west at 996 mb still firm snd rain bearing. Rains in the western mosst region of India and adjoining Pakistan to last another 2 days, before the low "gives in".
Mumbai: Some enhanced rainfall on Sunday/Monday.2 days of more frequent heavy showers, but not continuous.Rainfall should measure 30 mms on Sunday, and 20-25 mms on Monday.
Rainfall decreasing from Monday evening.
Seeing some changes in the 200 hpa jet streams in the North. Indicator of monsoon widhrawal from the northern most areas ? Vagaries will elaborate this next time, as we observe the changes, if any.
Read Our Partner's Blog In Full HERE!
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 74 degrees Kinlochewe (northwest coast of Scotland)
Low: 38 degrees (northwest Highlands)
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 71 degrees
Low: 53 degrees
TODAY'S COND
A beautiful day with warm, hazy sun, filtered somewhat by clouds, skies clouded over more by mid-afternoon but it remained mild with temps holding into evening in the upper 60s. Some rain showers peppered the area by late evening. This was the third day in a row of 70-degrees!
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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