On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Hurricane Earl may do more on Cape Cod that what was seen over the Outer Banks, despite being only 50 miles off the NC coast as a cat 2!
9pm GMT Update: HURRICANE EARL IS CURRENTLY, NOW A CATEGORY ONE STORM, MAX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80MPH, GUSTS TO 105MPH, MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST
As Earl tracks northeastwards it continues to do several things, speed up as it becomes attached more to the westerlies than riding around the clockwise flow of the western periphery of Mid-Atlantic ridge, as it enters more northerly latitudes of the western Atlantic, it is also spreading it's windfield out from the center, not good news for New England (particularly coastal New England tonight) and up in Atlantic Canada tomorrow and like a skater who slows down, they spread outwards, this is of course the weaking of it's core winds within a rather poor looking eye and eye-wall, perhaps due to dry air coming off the US, colder waters that are quickly dropping through the 70s as it passing east of Long Island and will by tomorrow enter waters in the 60s off the Canadian Maritimes.
Maximum sustained winds are now at 80mph and it may fall more before it makes it's closest appraoch to Cape Cod, what I am worried about is the interaction with the westerlies and other non-tropical atmospheric conditions seen at this latitude that may force unexpectedly strong winds up through Rhode Island, and across Cape Cod, the islands and up to Nova Scotia and surrounding Canadian provinces.
This system will be bringing perhaps a uniform 2-4 inch rains anywhere from higher ground of NW New Jersey, through southern New York state into Connecicut, western Massachussetts and up into Maine, particularly coastal Maine, from Providence on north and east into central and coastal Massachussetts including Boston we may see 3-6 inches of rain and perhaps 8+ inches for Cape Cod and the islands of Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard.
ALTHOUGH THESE CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY OCCURED THIS AFTERNOON: Winds, 20-30mph sustained winds for coastal Jersey, lower amounts further inland, gusts to tropical storm force of 40-50mph, for coastal Long Island we may see a uniform 20-35mph sustained winds, gusts to 60mph on exposed areas, particularly along the northern tip around Montauk.
Across New England (less for western areas) winds should be gale-force (tropical storm force over the mountainous areas) sustained, 50-60 in gusts but for coastal Rhode Island and Massachussetts we should see tropical-storm conditions through tonight with sustained winds of 40mph +, gusts perhaps in the upper end of tropical storm force (around 55-70mph), Boston may see 60mph gusts as the squalls roll through... As for Cape Cod, tonight will bring either strong tropical storm force conditions with maximum sustained winds expected to be in the 60-70mph range with gusts beyond 75mph or if this system tracks either closer (within 20-50miles or less) then we may see a period of actual hurricane conditions where sustained winds blow over at least part of the Cape at or beyond 75mph, gusts perhaps close to 100mph. If this occurs, then we'll see damage to homes, flooding and surge damage along the beaches...
System not as bad as it couldn've been for the Outer Banks, Can Cape Cod get off the hook too?
By Mark Vogan
1pm GMT Update: Thankfully Earl not only weakened to a category 2 storm but also remained sufficiently off the Outer Banks enough that this system brought minimal effect to homes, property and people, though in saying that, we still saw hurricane-force conditions within gusts and indeed flooding and wave action as well as a small tidal surge was still present along the Outer Banks.
Those from the northern side of the Outer Banks of NC are still feeling the effects of Earl though improving by the minute as Earl tracks off to the north and east. For New Jersey, Long Island and up towards the Cape Cod area conditions are worsening and it's still possible that Hurricane Earl remains at hurricane status as it makes it's closest approach to southern and coastal New England. It's possible Earl make cross the Cape as a cat 1 storm, therefore perhaps making a bigger impact there than the Outer Banks saw, although the Outer Banks are likely to have been more vunerable to tital surge and flooding due to their geography, nontheless, Cape Cod also remains vunerable and we must stay close to the info if you live from Rhose Island up to the northern tip of Cape Cod where conditions will worsen throughout the course of Friday.
As Earl captures and feels the more baroclinic nature of the atmosphere at these higher latitudes, I fear the combination of both tropical and baroclinic properties that intersect Earl may actually bring stronger winds to the Cape than expected. Drier air likely weakened Earl on it's closest approach to the Outer Banks as expected and I said in yesterday video. But we shall see what impact Earl has on the North Atlantic coast later today.
Stay tuned for a Video presentation by myself and discussion on Earl later this afternoon.
LATEST NEWS STORIES ON EARL
CNN
AccuWeather News
USA Today
LATEST UPDATES OF THE STORM
National Hurricane Center Links
AccuWeather Hurricane Center
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 70 degrees
Low: 49 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
No comments:
Post a Comment