Friday, September 17, 2010

17 September, 2010

Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Images Courtesy of the Associated Press


BREAKING NEWS
HURRICANE KARL SLAMS ASHORE 10 MILES NORTH OF VERACRUZ, MEXICO

CURRENT STATS
CATEGORY: 2
MAX WINDS: 110MPH (GUSTS TO 150MPH)
PRESSURE: 979MB
MOVEMENT: WSW AT 8MPH

UPDATE BY MARK VOGAN...
It appears Hurricane Karl came ashore sometime around 10am ET, 10 miles to the north of Veracruz, Mexico as a 115mph Category 3 storm which brought tremendous wave and surge action onshore as well as damaging winds and flooding. The flooding aspect of this storm is of major concern further inland over the rugged mountains of Northern Mexico which has tiny settlements which are likely to get inundated by flood waters that will roll down the mountains as 10 to as much as 20 inches of rain can be expected locally. Wind gusts up to 94 mph were reported in Veracruz harbour whilst winds of up to 115mph were likely recorded on land, where the eye-wall crossed the coast, gusts of up to 150 mph were likely reported also, these wind speeds would have caused significant damage to property but now as the system, though still fairly strong at cat to intensity is now progressing further inland and is expected to be a devastating rain-make to points deep within the mountains of northern and central Mexico where even the 20 million residing within the vast megaopolis of Mexico City may find themselves flooded by tomorrow morning!!!

More on Karl's impacts tomorrow as well as full details on Igor's asault on Bermuda coming up, stay right here for the latest information....
LIVE NEWS FEED...

Karl Making Landfall, Threatens Mexico with Serious Flooding
AccuWeather News


Hurricane Karl plows into Mexico mainland, weakens
CNN


IN OTHER NEWS TODAY

BREAKING NEWS
DID NEW YORK CITY RECIEVE A TORNADO? 109 MPH WINDS?

Image Courtesy of the New York Times

109 mph Winds Rip Through NYC. NWS Investigating Possible Tornado
AccuWeather News

City Workers Clear Debris in Aftermath of Fierce Storm
New York Times

National Weather Service Assessing Storm Damage

Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather


Strong Storms Threaten Nation's Heartland Friday Night
By Bill Deger, Meteorologist

Phoenix Heat May Reach New York, Philadelphia
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Octoberlike Chill for Northern Plains, Great Lakes
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

A Lifeguard's Advice on Rip Currents
By Kirstie Hettinga, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS NORTHERN USA

Currently 33 degrees at Great Falls, Montana whilst Cheyenne, Wyoming is a balmy 76 degrees... It's that time a year again when there's enough cold air now building up across the Arctic and is expanding enough that cold fronts that swing south out of northwest Canada, there driving a sharper therm boundary and notable and sudden temperature drops. Today will see snow, even at relatively low levels across Montana where highs will only top out in the mid to upper 30s, whilst just south in Wyoming and across into South Dakota and Nebraska, highs will warm well into the 80s!!

As for the Southwest Desert, Southern and Central Plains, across to the Southeast and Florida, it's all about the mid-summer-like heat notice the low to mid-90s currently across the interior Southeast..... 91 in Atlanta, Georgia, 90 at Miami, Florida and indeed highs will top 100 in Phoenix, Arizona.



Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia
By Rajesh Kapadia

Friday, 17 September, 2010

The MSL low in the bay off the Orissa coast now lies along the Orissa coast, and may have crossed inland today.

I mention "may" as the COLA/GFS map of Friday evening shows the low partly inland...But still at 1000 mb.

The clouding assiciated with the low is thick in the North A.P. region (as on Friday evening), so very likely the low is inland.

But the "feeding" to the low seems good, as seen from the cloud formations in the South quadrant.

I Estimate the low to move west-northwest, and track into M.P. by Sat/Sun, and still be around 1000mb.

Consequently, heavy precipitation in north A.P. and M.P. regions during the weekend. System mayfizzle out over South Gujarat/Rajasthan by Tuesday.

Eastern regions of Gujarat may get some rain on Mon/Tuesday.

Bharuch can expect some light to moderate showers on Monday and Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the existing UAC from the previous system, is now over West U.P, hence extremely heavy rains in the region were reported on Thursday/Friday.

This UAC may fizzle out by Sunday, but not before precipitating heavy rains in Utteranchal.

All parameters pertaining to monsoon widhrawal are "intact" over Pakistan and adjoining rajasthan.And, I see an anticyclone at 1008 mb developing over Pakistan by Monday, as forecasted by some models.

For all practical purposes, I would have removed the monsoon from Rajasthan/Punjab and Kutch. But being cautious, leading European and Japanese forecasting organizations suggest that rains are prolonged and may overstay.

I'll wait for the low, the new system, to finish its work, and then put up my views.

We should get a clear picture by Monday, when Vagaries will put up the further widhrawal position.

SEE RAJESH'S GREAT "NEW" BLOG LAYOUT, NOW AND READ MORE HERE!

What's Reaching Today's Blogs?

Radar, Videos, Hoaxes: Another NYC Tornado, Or Not?
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

Departing for Bermuda to Chase Hurricane Igor
The Northeast Quadrant

Melting Glaciers Revealing Buried Artifacts 3,000+ Years Old
Paul Douglas Weather Column, WeatherNation


Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 110 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 23 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA

Today's Extremes here at my house

High: 60 degrees
Low: 40 degrees

TODAY'S COND
A crisp autumnal start under clear skies and light winds provided the start to a beautiful autumn day of sunshine and cool temperatures.

Thanks for reaching.
-Mark

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