Thursday, April 7, 2011

7 April, 2011

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TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

ANOTHER LARGE AFTERSHOCK (7.1) ROCKS OFF NE COAST OF JAPAN



TELEGRAPH

EXPRESS & STAR

TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE
By Mark Vogan


United Kingdom enjoys warmest April 6th on record following driest March in over 50 years!

Santon Downham, Suffolk reaches 23.9C or 77 degrees F.

With a stronger than normal ridge over southwest Europe (core stretching from Algeria to central Spain) for only early April, this sent temperatures soaring across not only Spain but all the way up to Aberdeenshire in northern Scotland. This powerful high pushed a trough that was over Scotland, northern England and N. Ireland northwestwards, but only getting so far. Warming winds from Spain scored out pesky Atlantic clouds that had been covering much of the UK just hours before this ridge began shifting north. The clouds dissipate as those southerlies warm the mid to upper levels!

It was further west from around Cumbria northwards which began seeing heavy rains which lifted north with the trough eventually coming to a halt over Glasgow and the Scottish Highlands. This deep channel of Atlantic moisture flowed from the warm Azores, straight northeastwards into Dumfries and Galloway area. This channel, which was the seperation boundary between warm sub-tropical air and maritime sub-polar air advanced north as the strong southerlies associated with the ridge warmed the upper levels as it progressed up through England and Wales and even into southeastern and eventually northeastern areas. The geographic block of the Scottish Highlands meant that the Atlantic moisture plume was being wrung out once it got so far up and over the Highlands, meaning Moary, Aberdeenshire and down the Scottish East Coast was fine, dry and enjoying the influence of the warm high. This was allowing temperatures to soar from 18 to 21C or 67-70 degrees F.

With the northward expansition of this high spreading all the way into the UK forcing cloud dissipation and warming, temperatures rose 8 to over 10C above seasonal averages for this early point in the year. Readings as warm as 21 to 22C where common from throughout the Greater London area all the way to Yorkshire in the northeast of England. Even further north, Byvie Castle in Aberdeenshire (NE Scotland) reached 21.1C (70F), These highs are a full 10-12C WARMER THAN NORMAL. It should basically be in the low 50s F, not low to mid-70s F. 

A reading at Santon Downham, Suffolk, outside of London reached 23.9C, that's a summer-like 75 degrees F and was an actual fact the warmest UK-wide April 6th high on record.


Downright HOT across Spain!

Bilbao in northern Spain scorched at 32.4C or 91 degrees F this afternoon.

Of course, when the UK enjoys record heat, you'd certainly think that it must be hot wherever this air is coming from right? Absolutely correct... Temperatures today soared to levels that would be more accustomed to July 6th/7th and not April 6th/7th. One of the warmest spots that I could see was in the northern Spanish city of Bilbao which saw a sweltering 32.8C (91 degrees F). Sevilla in far southern Spain which reached a hot 31.4C (89 degrees F) and 30C (89 degrees F) yesterday. Madrid in central Spain reached 27.8C (82 degrees F), even up in the French capital it warmed under blazing sunshine to 23.9C (75 degrees F).

Drier than normal ground throughout Western Europe, likely helping boost higher pressure overhead

Because we've seen a dry past 30 to 40 days across much of western Europe, it's very likely that we're seeing the affects in the atmosphere above. We naturally see high pressure build over North Africa and southern areas of Europe at this point of the year, but with drier than normal soils, high pressure tends to intensify. Even across southern areas of the UK, I believe high pressure is attracted and the reaction of both soils below and atmospheric pressures aloft work hand in hand in warming temperatures at the surface.   

TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA
By Mark Vogan

Another Severe Weather Outbreak looms and unfortunately more will likely follow!
IT'S THANKS TO A MAJOR GLOBAL DRIVER BY THE NAME OF LA NINA WHICH IS TO BLAME FOR AN ALREADY BAD SEVERE WEATHER SEASON, THE PROBLEM IS, IT'S ONLY APRIL 7TH.

Storms fire in the Ohio Valley & S. Plains today, and a major outbreak could be on tap by Saturday.

A La Nina 'typically' creates a problem during the spring season across the United States. That problem is, drought conditions across the Southern tier and often stronger than normal pressure heights (high pressure) means a hotter overall spring. Across the Northern Tier and it's the opposite, abundant snows and colder air that doesn't want to leave means we have cold to the north, heat to the south. This then creates a stronger than normal spring jet that rips west to east across the country. Storms like to both form and ride along a strong, turbulent jet and thus we have a problem.

The current US pattern is such that we have an active Pacific Storm track, helped by hot weather across the south and persistent waves of cold dropping into the north from Canada. Storms naturally get wrung out of their precipitation once they hit the West Coast and cross the multiple mountain ranges of the West. The surface low gets ripped appart as it crosses the Rocky Mountains, the furthest east of the Western North America mountain complex. Once a Pacific low gets out on the the Plains, it re'establishes it's surface low, the reason is twofold, 1) it finds that it has some 12,000 feet of extra atmospheric depth to work with, after getting squeezed up into the mid levels of the atmosphere as it crosses the 12 to 14,000 foot peaks of the Rockies and 2) it's counterclockwise circulation pulls warmth and heat up from the Gulf, firing up the storm.

WHY ARE THESE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONTS SO DANGEROUS?

Once these systems cross the Rockies and pull unseasonably chilly air down from Alaska and Canada, this along with unseasonably warm air over Mexico and the Southern Tier of the US means that the system will intensify over the Heartland. It's leading cold front also becomes more active as very cool, dry air blows behind it, whilst warm, humid and moisture rich air up from the south along this front. Southerly surface winds and a strong upper level jet support above, blowing hard out of the northwest creates that twist and rotation right along that frontal boundary. Warm and moist air that gets forced into the front will get forced upwards, rising fast and furious up through the atmosphere, these forcing of air to rise creates towering thunderstorms. The differing wind directions as the air flows upwards creates spin and when the atmosphere is right, this roation forces these thunderstorms to become supercell and tornadic.

This front sweeps east, southeast into hot, humid air that's actually getting pulled up from the Gulf of moisture is reaction to the approaching front. The front practically drives and controls the weather that's out ahead of it, setting it's own stage so to speakand this often results in very dangerous weather.

THIS WEEKEND: ANOTHER STORM, ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK


Another storm system that's now pasting the West in low elevation rains and high elevation snows, and likely adding to an already record snow base and seasonal total, will cross over the Rockies, intensify and ignite strong to severe thunderstorms along it's cold front. Stay tuned to tomorrow's post for details.

WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan

Surely these earthquakes going off in other spots around the Pacific Rim are linked in one way or another?, One triggers another?

Some scientists say that there is no link between Chile, New Zealand and Japan's quake or others for that matter yet it would appear that we've been seeing a marked increase in large earthquakes over the past 12 to 18 months around the Pacific Ring of Fire as well as other areas of the planet. Despite there being different types of food on the plate (Different fault lines), it's all part of the one meal (The Pacific Plate) so to speak, you get what I mean?

Of course, today's late afternoon headlines were dominated by yet another large quake off Japan's northeast coast, not far from Fukushima. All these 'aftershocks' are reactions to the 9.0 back last month. So, if there are aftershocks that are in reaction to one big one last month, why can't one going off on one side of the Pacific plate, trigger another on the other side?

Why can't a quake in Chile, then New Zealand and then Japan not all be tied up and all be a reaction of one another's movement and shaking.

Surely, a large quake on one area of the huge Pacific Ring of Fire must create a shock throughout and therefore that jolt must be a trigger to another perhaps weeks or months later.

RELATED

Earthquakes Can Trigger More Earthquakes, Experts Say

Big Quakes Do Not Trigger Others Far Away, Investigate Finds



new: what's on the weatherbell blogs today?

Severe Weather Outbreak Sat into Monday could total 50 or more tornadoes
Joe Bastardi's Blog, WeatherBell.com

A Tale of Four Summers
Joe D'Aleo's Blogs, WeatherBell.com

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 102 degrees at Laredo, TX
LOW: 5 degrees at Saranac Lake, NY

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 73 degrees (22.7C) at St James Park (London)
LOW: 33 degrees (0.4C) at Exeter Airport (Devon)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 54 degrees
LOW: 44 degrees

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Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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