Thursday, April 14, 2011

14 April, 2011

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TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

IN TODAY'S POST:
WEATHER TALK: In Springtime, it's Sandstorm time in Middle East (Mark explains regional climatology)
UK & EUROPE: High Pressure returns to UK but not quite as warm as last week (Mark explains why)
TODAY IN AMERICA: Another Severe Outbreak but snow too this time!

 
Severe weather in store for central Plains and Deep South
CNN

TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan

High Pressure returns to UK, Western Europe for Weekend, difference in origin means warm but not as warm!

Whilst the weather conditions through much of this week hasn't been too nice after last week and weekend's glorious sun and warmth, finally high pressure will once again build back in from the Atlantic and cover Britain. However, don't expect it to be quite as warm as what it was last week. Instead of the air coming from the south off Africa, the flow and origin of high pressure will come from the southwest (from off the Atlantic) and the difference is, though we'll enjoy warmer than normal conditions for the time of year and sunshine, the warmth is of a modified ocean origin, not a hot, continental origin. Keep in mind, that air travelling across basically any cool body of water will moderate whether it be a hot or cold air mass. Air that travels across land, will modify less! The basic reasoning behind Britain's 'mild or moderate year-round climate that is for the most part, absent of extremes is because we're surrounded by cool waters that take the sting out of air masses whereever than originate from.

Today's BBC Europe Forecast

Look for highs in the 13 to 16C range through this weekend across much of inland Scotland, 15-16C across much of north and central England and Wales and 17 to 20C across the south and southeast of England. Still very pleasant for mid-April. Last week's low to mid-20s was exceptional in which a hot air mass sitting over Spain saw powerful south winds blow straight north over land, with little cool waters (English Channel) to cross, thus the air remained very warm.

TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan

Big Heartland Storm presents snow as well as Central Plains Severe Weather today...

Today will mark day 1 of the next 2-3 for severe weather that will ride another west to east moving cold front associated with a storm out over the Rockies. With this setup as compared with the previous system, the air won't be quite as hot and there will be colder air driving out of the northwest to present a uniform 2-4 inch band of lying snow stretching from eastern Montana, the Dakotas, Minnesota and into perhaps portions of Wisconsin and Michigan ver the next 36 hours.


As you can see from the above graphic, the core of the low will spin across the central Plains this afternoon whilst temps heat up to the east of the front that will be north-south aligned over the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. The front, like all the rest will advance east into central and eastern portions of these states come later tonight. Highs build into the upper 80s for most and this heat will progress north up into the Ohio Valley later this afternoon along with the northward moving warm front... Once again, the danger zone be across Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas into Missouri today for localised flooding rains, large hail, damaging winds and the potential for tornadoes! The same threat will be across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky up into Ohio tomorrow.

While all the nasty severe weather is occuring across the south, heavy snows will pick up, along with cold, northwest winds later tonight and through tomorrow. Below is estimated totals from The Weather Channel for the next 48 hours.


As you can clearly see from the current temperature graphic below, the thermal boundary is very evident as it slices southwest to northeast across the country with the storm in between. Te storm is pulling together two very different air masses. This infusion of these two conflicting air masses is forcing the storm itself to grow stronger as it emerges from the Front Range. The strenghening aspect to this storm will force warmer, soupier air north from the Gulf, but likewise will force colder, drier air down from Western Canada and this will force possibly bigger snows, likely even blizzard conditions over the N. Plains, whilst perhaps an even nastier display of severe weather as the front slices into the hot, humid environment that awaits it's arrival.


WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan

Springtime is Sandstorm time in Middle East, It's all about the blowtorch next!

High Pressure intensifies, forcing average daytime temperatures into the 90s in April. Troughs of low pressure soon loose fight with the increasingly dominant sub-tropical high pressure belt. 

During winter and spring, troughs of cold air can dig far enough south to bring rain, wind and mountain snow via low pressure systems as they drop south from western Russia. Often the deserts of the Middle East will recieve much needed rainfall which they simply don't get during most of the year due to the persistence of high pressure dominating this region. 

Overall, the deserts of the Middle East lie within a latudial belt which also encompasses the Deserts of the American Southwest, Sahara of North Africa, Gobi and the multitude of Asian deserts including those in Pakistan and India. This latitudial belt that circles the world at around 15 degrees north is where a belt of semi-permanent high pressure cells sit. When it's summer, their strong and literally never get penetrated by troughs. Troughs simply bounce off these 'summer dominators'. These huge columns of sinking, compressionally heated air is what makes the territories of the world beneath them desert, due to lack of cloud, lack of rain and heat dry things out and without water, little if any vegatation can lie and grow. Even in winter, the sun can be strong and persistent. It's simply not as hot due to the fact that the high's tend to sink south to their winter position, but even when overhead in areas such as the Middle East, they bring warm conditions but not typically hot conditions as these high's are much weaker. During summer and when their very strong, temperatures regularly top 120 degrees across Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iraq, Iran, Oman, UAE, Kuwait etc..

A sandstorm approaching Al Asad, Iraq, just before nightfall on April 27, 2005.

SAME COLD TROUGH THAT'S BEEN HANGING OVER RUSSIA AND TURKEY, HAS BEEN PRODUCING SANDSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE EAST!


The very same large, penetrative trough of cold air that's been dropping well into European Russia all the way into Turkey has been actually impacting the weather further south. The low which has been responsible for heavy snows across mountainous Turkey has produced strong, gusty winds which have whipped desert sandstorms, blowing across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and adjacent countries. They happen more or less every spring when a troughs form and deepend southwards over European Russia and into Turkey across tpo Afghanstan and other landlocked western Asian countries than are hot and dry in summer, cold and dry in winter.

A dust storm crossing the Red Sea from Egypt to Saudi Arabia on May 13, 2005

WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?

Heaviest rain due west of urban centers
Maryland Weather

Rainy Saturday In The Cards
PhillyWeather


Significant tornadoes possible in south central Plains; dangerous situation unfolding
Captial Weather Gang

NE Winter 2010-2011 and the Mid-Atlantic Snow Hole
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

new: what's on today's weatherbell blogs?

Severe Weather Outbreak Starts Today
Joe Bastardi's Blog, WeatherBell.com

Please pass the orange juice
Joe D'Aleo's Blog, WeatherBell.com

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 101 degrees at Laredo, TX
LOW: 6 degrees at Brighton, UT

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 54 degrees
LOW: 47 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

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