On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
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WEST TEXAS IS THE NATIONS "EARLY SEASON" HOT SPOT, THEN IT'S THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THAT TAKES CHARGE
The West Texas community of Pecos recorded a high today of 104 degrees which makes this reading America's warmest of 2010 so far. Of course this reading will soon become a far cry to readings that will eventually be topping 110 degrees and eventually 120 degrees, you can bet your bottom dollar these will be reached at your classic locales such as Thermal, Death Valley, Laughlin, Baker, Palm Springs and other locations that are relatively low in elevation and and sheltered within mountain valleys and basins in the Mojave or Colorado desert of the American Southwest.
Interestingly, the arid desert of West Texas appears to be the location in the southern tier (anywhere from coastal Southern California to Mrytle Beach, South Carolina which appears to experience the hottest temperatures from March through May before the locations within the Desert Southwest, which I regard as eastern Arizona to the Mojave of California. The high appears to build over Western Texas first and with the feedback of desert terrain, readings regularly top 100 to 105 degrees
Why here first?
I believe because of the interior Mexican desert plateau and the southern latitude, highs respond to the deserts and with dry, desert terrain stretching into West Texas, this allows the little moisture in the atmosphere to push desert heat all the way into Texas (west of Midland, TX) where moisture is limited, further east and Gulf moisture keeps air cooler and also supports less heating of the air and more to evaporation. The dry ground and minimal release of moisture into the atmosphere over West Texas allows the high pressure cell to intensify earlier than in other areas because of the feedback. So why doesn't the Desert Southwest get hot first since it's also a desert? Well, troughiness can continue to dive south from western Canada and squash or surpress the Four Corners high for longer, plus this trough cannot get far enough south into Texas and therefore there is less apposing influence to the Mex-Tex high which is basically stronger because it builds over the much more southerly located Mexican desert (way more south thn the American Southwest) and progresses north, following the desert terrain into West Texas, therefore the stronger Mexico/Texas high has less influence from outside weather systems, therefore the high across Mex/Tex can deflect troughs up and over, often a western trough (which we currently see over the Rocky Mountains) can "pump-up" the Mex-Tex high and with the combo of desert-atmosphere feedback and the western trough, we often see the hottest air over the typical West Texas hotzone of Laredo, Pecos, Midland, Waco, Harlingen, Del Rio, McAllen and Wink and other spots that ALSO experience downsloping off the southern Rockies.
Eventually the troughiness begins to fail to drop far enough south over the western US and this means the often surpressed Four Corners ridge can finally build and the desert landscape can finally work with the atmosphere in warming temperatures to classic Southwest levels of 100s, 110s and 120s. Once we enter June, usually the hottest temperatures leaves West Texas (though it still regularly tops 100 to 105 degrees every day with temps over 110 at times, those spots in the Desert Southwest by then start to beat those numbers in Texas as the high becomes stronger in reponse to the strong ridge over the Four Corners. The Mexico/Texas high pressure cell eventually becomes the Four Corners cell and finally this will fan or spread out across the classic sunbelt of the American South. The Four Corners and the Bermuda high eventually joins forces in bringing hot, humid conditions to much of the East, whilst across the West hot and dry conditions prevail but overall these individual cells will eventually rule most of the Lower 48 atmosphere as May progresses into June and the jet stream and storm track pushes north to it's summertime position
We are seeing the ever more stronger influence of the Bermuda High over the western Atlantic which is now joining with the Mex-Tex high but the Four corners high is weak because of greater influence of a trough over the Rockies, usually this doesn't last long at this point in the year and eventually the Four Corners will gain ground and temps will heat up. Note the near 90-degree air now persisting across the steamy region from Houston to New Orleans and up to Atlanta... I shall discuss this topic more soon!
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By Mark Vogan
EERILY SIMILARITY GULF OF MEXICO TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BETWEEN 2005 AND 2010, IS THIS SOMETHING TO WORRY ABOUT?
The Gulf is still cool BUT don't let this fool you. Signs of warming are showing and it may even warm faster than normal simply because there are rainfall deficits across the central Gulf Coast states, insinuating a dry pattern and this isn't good as we are now at a time of year when the semi-permanent high begins to intensify at over this region. With drier soils in a sunbaked region, this only suggests one thing, hotter, drier weather ahead.. What's that mean? High pressure dominance and stronger than normal pressure heights with dry soil feedback, these hotter temperatures and the lack of rain producing clouds when the high is strong enough to cap the atmosphere over the southern tier and likely over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and even much of the Gulf, will aid in heating up the cool waters rapily, soon enough the temperature profile will match that of the central Tropical Atlantic basin which is remarkably warm already thanks to the past winter we saw.
The April and early May temperatures of the Gulf are eerily similar to April and May 2005. The loop current is very evident and was also at this point in 2005, of course the Loop Current played a vital role in the hurricanes of 2005, so I am worried we may see a similar environment this year. There is signs of the loop current more this year than any other SINCE 2005!
A blog post by CBS 4 Meteorologist David Bernard on April 30th Gulf Temperatures Warming Quickly
2005 was the year I got married and that was a year in which we saw some remarkable heat here and a very dry period during the heart of the summer. Unofficial temperatures of 90 degrees was reported in Glasgow and I recall cracks in the lawn at my parents house during July and August. The heat hit right in the heart of the two warmest months. The patterm overall suggests a similar summer pattern from heat across the southern states of the US, large-scale UPWARD MOTION from the eastern Atlantic to southern Gulf of Mexico and higher pressures furthern north across Britain...
The ideas of a similar hurricane season and my UK summer prediction holds well with summer 2005!
We shall see.
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
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Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 104 degrees at Pecos, TX (Warmest of 2010)
Low: 9 degrees at Pahaska, WY
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
Warmest High: 62 degrees at Helens Bay (Co Down)
Coolest High: 46 degrees at Baltasound (Shetland)
Coolest Low: 39 degrees at Lerwick (Shetland)
Today's Extremes at my house
High: 54 degrees
Low: 48 degrees
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Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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