On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Image credit: NASA/GSFC, MODIS Rapid Response
india, asia
Tropical Cyclone Laila disrupting the Bay of Bengal
AccuWeather News
louisiana, u.s.a
Oil Spill Encounters Loop Current
The Weather Channel
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
Tornado outbreak set to unfold on southern Plains
AccuWeather
First 100-Degree Heat of the Year for Phoenix
AccuWeather
Chilly soaking rain continues spreading through Northeast
AccuWeather
Potential tornado outbreak on Wednesday
AccuWeather
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
Things firing up in the Bay of Bengal, Atlantic next?
Well it's clear to see that the Bay of Bengal is the place to start off the global tropical season this year, I wonder, after this, will we see things spark in the Atlantic? It appears a good likelyhood as "upward motion" is going to rise in the western Atlantic basin just after the Indian Ocean basin flares. Indeed this flare up of convection may well be the spark to commence India's monsoon season. That in turn may aid in firing off a more active African wave train which will excellerate naturally as the Sahara Desert heats and enhances the blow up of equatorial thunderstorms over equatorial Africa. Watch as daytime heating fires storms more and more as we progress into summer.
American Deep South looking very summer-like now. Becoming warmer and more humid
If you notice, though there's yet another storm system aiming into the Great Basin and rain threatens to spoil the apparent start to summer in California, there's no stopping summer in the Deep South where highs are now topping the 90 degree mark or warmer from Houston to New Orleans and with a southerly flow up from the soupy Gulf, we have hot, hazy humid conditions now in firm control.
Nights are gradually warming also amid heating of offshore waters along the Gulf Coast. Notice how places like Boothville, Louisiana tends to stay warmer than more inland New Orelans at night (remember New Orleans is some 50 miles inland from the Gulf)? The nearer places are to the Gulf, the more humid they are, the more humid at night, the more warmer you stay! Usually places that are right along the Gulf, will hold a temperature comparable or near to the SST of the nearby water. I.e. Boothville, coastal waters may be in the low 80s by now, the nighttime low may fall only to the upper 70s to around 80. Indeed, Gulf water along the immediate coast can hold SST's to 90 degrees and your simply not going to have 90 degree overnight lows each night, however low 80s do occur and this is often during the mid to later part of summer when the waters are warmest and the release to the air in the form of humidity is highest of the year.
When visiting Georgia in the summer of 2001, we drove down from Atlanta to Biloxi, MS. Though Atlanta, like anywhere else in the South during the heart of summer can be hot and humid, the difference was only felt for me when we got to Biloxi after dark and stopped for a break, got out of the car and the humidity made by t-shirt stick to me at 10pm at night. It was stifling but although warm, it was more to "stickiness" in the air that got me. Because of our closer proximity to the Gulf waters, the difference from Atlanta to Mobile was striking.
I must admit, I also experienced this during my first ever US visit back in July 1998. I visited Houston, TX and there of course July is HOT and HUMID to say the least. In fact it just so happened that I visited during one of the worst ever southern heatwaves where out of my 10 day visit, there were menay days which climbed to 100 to 102 degrees. However, like in 2001 with Atlanta verses Biloxi or Mobile, it was the increase in humidity on a visit from Houston down to Galveston on the Gulf Coast where yet again the humidity was so much higher, making it feel almost worse than the 100-degree AIR temperature and mid-70 degree dew points of Houston. Nights were HOT when combining the daily rise in humidity at night and lows only falling to around 75 to 80 degrees by arly morning. In fact evenings still saw temps in the upper 80s to low 90s. Indeed the air temp was likely in the low 90s in Galveston during my daytime visit (cooler than Houston) but humidity in the low 80s, made it feel more oppressive...
India and sub-continent Asia Weather
Vagaries of the Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Update on TC "Laila":
Possible area of striking coast near Kakinada,on 19th.evening, and then tracking along the East coast.As expected, it will turn to North-Northeast on hitting landmass.
Will strike the coast as Cat1 TC, and may maintain this intensity for at least 24/36 hrs. due to its proximity to the sea.Heavy supportive clouding seen in interior Karnataka.But this will vanish as the system moves away.
Rainfall upto 250 mms initially expected along A.P.coast, and 50-70 mms in interior A.P. and North T.N. coast.and winds will reach 70 knts aalong the shores.
Monsoon forecast:
I think tthe Cyclone is moving as per the expectations in my blog written yesterday. Striking the coast near the A.P./Orissa border, and then sort of grazing it, and moving North-East. What happens to the Monsoon? My personal assumptions are:The energy gets sucked into the system, and suddenly we find a drop in the rain rate around the Andaman Islands.This will stall the further movement of the Bay branch, by 4/5 days. A lot of rain will move up the east coast during the next 4/5 days. Can this be called Monsoon rains? Technically no. And,subsequently, as the Bay waters will cool down a bit, fresh momentum required for the monsoon may take another week.Monsoon will advance into North-eastern region in the first week of June.
The Arabian Sea branch gets the initial pull from the cyclone,at the time the cyclone enters the land.Subsequently, the south-west flow of clouds and moisture can continue into Kerala uninteruppted. Hence, it is very possible, that regular monsoon winds can enter Kerala by the 25th./26th. Further movement Northwards may then take another week to gather momentum. The 200 hpa winds are not yet regrouped. The cyclone may have delayed this important parameter a bit,though their is no direct co-relation between the jet streams and the cyclone.
Readings as on 18th. May:
The scene shifts from the Sub-Continent !
Hottest in Asia: Makkah (S.Arabia): 48c.
Hottest in India: Wardha (Maharashtra) 47.4c. Nagpur:46.2c,Satna:46c.
Hottest Nights: New Delhi(Palam): 34.0c,Chandrapur:34.0c,Kota:33.8c, Hissar:32.6c,Nagpur:32.0c,, New Delhi (S'Jung):32.0c,Jaipur:31.8c, Aurangabad (Maharashtra) 31.7c.
Mahableshwar hotter than Mumbai today !!
Mahableshwar max. 35.1c
Today's Mumbai day temps:Colaba:34.9c, S'cruz:35.5c.
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Early Tropical Development?
David Bernard, CBS Miami
Get Set, Not a Pretty Week in the West
Ken Clark, Western Expert, AccuWeather
Some Longer Range Thoughts
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
My Summer Forecast for Canada
Brett Anderson, Canada Expert, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 99 degrees at Pecos, TX
Low: 19 degrees at Bodie State Park, CA
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
Warmest High: 69 degrees at Kinlochwe
Coolest High: 51 degrees at Fair Isle
Coolest Low: 28 degrees at Altnaharra
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 66 degrees (this high was likely warmer as my thermometer stopped reporting after topping this figure!)
Low: 42 degrees
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Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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