On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
great britain, europe
UK ash cloud restrictions easing
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afghanistan, asia
Weather likely a factor in Afghanistan plane crash
AccuWeather News (also CNN Story here)
serbia, europe
(Video) Serbia Hit By Tornado and Flooding
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pakistan, asia
Pakistan Hunza lake 'to overflow within days'
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other cool stuff
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Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
This is a computer model's rendition of the state of the oil slick and water trajectories as of this past Saturday. The black area is the approximate location of the oil slick. The red circle is the site of the leak and the red area over the lower center of the image is the Loop Current. The image is courtesy of the College of Marine Science and the University of South Florida.
Unusual late-season rain in California
AccuWeather
Oil slick weather and tropical concerns this week
AccuWeather
Repeating severe thunderstorms, flooding over West Texas
AccuWeather
Locally severe thunderstorms, flooding problems east of Mississippi River
AccuWeather
Today's Accu Videos
Rain Storm for Mid-Atlantic
Breaking Weather: Soggy in the Mid-Atlantic
Changes for the West Coast
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
Joining up the pieces of atmospheric change
UK Weather Thoughts for the rest of the week
As I write this on a still, calm evening here in Scotland when folks are settling down for the night, temps are creeping back into the 40s after a pleasant high of 62 degrees here. Warmer air is progressing northward from the Azores and highs will top the 68-70 degree mark here in the Scottish central belt back late this week. High pressure will support plenty of sun, though it may be filtered, hazy, more summertime sunshine. We may see a few isolated bursts of rain showers, some of which may be thundery in nature as the surface heating enhances lift and creates more vigoroius thermals. Just you watch these days ahead, they start cool and very clear, not a cloud in the sky and then as the morning wears on and temps climb, puffy cumulus clouds begin to form, some of those become cumulonimbus clouds which are your thunder and lightening producers... Those are also formed along fronts and sometimes when a front pushes through on a warm sunny day, thunderstorms blow up. Some areas of the UK, especially further south over central and southern England where temperatures will top the mid to upper 70s (mid to upper 20s) the chances of torrential downpours and storms are likely.
Will this become the first true BBQ weather-week?
Yes, I do believe it will, it will be plenty warm and although this is by no means a heat wave, not close as this warmth heading our way is really marginal for time of year to be truthful, my concerns are of patchy, isolated and passing showers which may be the only issue. Check your LOCAL forecast for updates on showers for your area, however any showers that do occur, I expect them to be "very isolated" and will move quickly, meaning it may only last, at most an hour or so. In terms of warmth and "overall" dry weather we pretty much should all be in luck for BBQ's this week, I shall certainly be having one this week. The best evenings for one will be Wed onwards for the south of UK and Thursday onwards for the northern half as temps will be warmer by then.
It seems almost stupid talking about our "warmth or heat" when you see just how "warm" India is and has really been now all year. Even the first couple of months of 2010, India have been enduring abnormal heat. At this moment in time, northern and central sections of India are sweltering in true "severe heat wave" conditions with highs topping the upper 40s on a daily basis.
What could break this heat?
1) the increased tropical moisture being pumped north from the Indian Ocean as tropical cyclone activity may just be starting to show signs of life?
2) Could changes elsewhere in the world be enough to alter the upper atmosphere over India, either pushing away with strongest pressure heights or breaking it down by surrounding "outside" weather influences, allowing moisture northward and unleasing the first rains of the monsoon.
3) There has been significant changes to the SST profile of all major global tropical cyclone basins...
a) The Gulf has warmed significantly
b) The India and Arabian Seas have also warmed significantly (result of powerful high pressure over south Asia?)
c) There has been significant cooling in the central equatorial Pacific as the El Nino breaks down. In relation to Joe Basatrdi's "Long Ranger Video" he mentions how, the central Pacific cooling and the development of the La Nina basestate, forces an excelleration of air westwards towards the Indian Ocean and this corresponds with the warm waters of the Indian Ocean forcing upward motion, which should enhance the Indian monsoon, this makes for prime development region No.1 for tropical cyclones to form (Indian/Arabian Sea). He goes on to say that how the monsoonal circulation ENHANCES the African wave train and of course the same idea goes for the tropics of the Atlantic Ocean as it does with the Indian/Arabbian Sea.. As those waves progress east-west, they develop over abnormally warm waters from the west African coast all the way to the Gulf of Mexico!
Are these TROPICAL changes all in correspondance with the mid-latitude changes with ridge-trough shifts and indeed the retreat of the cold and the jet. This current "warming trend" may now signal the true end to winter 2009-10 and warmer, drier weather may well lock in now until August!
If you haven't seen this already! Check out the link at the bottom of this segment!
Henry Margusity of AccuWeather's SCARIEST WEATHER EXPERIENCE OF CAREER AND LIFE!
MUST SEE VIDEO LINK: http://www.accuweather.com/video/86075908001/caught-on-video-extreme-severe-thunderstorm.asp
PARTNER BLOG
India and sub-continental Asia Weather
Vagaries of the Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Update on Bay System
Rightly said ! One of our readers has rightly said thet the Bay has "bounced back." After sending negative signals throughout the last 1 month,in a rapid development, a low formed in the Bay on Sunday, and within 24hrs, now on Monday night, it is a deep depression.
A deep depression yes, but the core pressure is at 1000 mb, and the wind speed at the centre is 30 knots.
Now, the IMD forecasts it to move North-West, and deepen into a cyclonic storm, to cross the A.P. coast by the 20th.
JTWC estimates it to be a depression, and is still not declared its point of crossing the coast.
ECMRWF estimates a depression to move along the East coast, and cross the coast at Orissa.
I would personally go by that estimate. The said depression/deep depression would eventually move towards the A.P. coast till the 19th, and then graze the coast ,and cross maybe somewhere at the Orissa/ W.Bengal coast by the 23rd. That's my personal view point, and in weather, one can never be too sure or accurate. My reasoning for the system's "along the coast" movement is the W.D. moving in the Northern regions of the country. This W.D.aloft, can push the depression off course, and steer it into Orissa/ W.Bengal coast.
But things can appear and disappear in the weather mechanism within a day.
So if the W.D. vanishes.....things can be different. Therefore,alongwith paying attention to this depression, I would be focused on the W.D.s up North.
Resultantly, the Monsoon has moved into the middle Andaman regions.
Now, we wait and watch for its further progress here.
For T.N. heavy rains will commence once this system approaches the coast. Then it all depends on its steering course.
For Kerala, heavy precipitation on Wednessday/Thursday, till the effect of the system is intact. Then again ...depends..? IMD may advance the Monsoon into Kerala during this period, but I woulds be cautious. If the system crosses into T.N.or A.P. and re-emerges into the Arabian Sea, it might just pull off the Monsoon energy Northwards or North-Westwards.
Situation is too fluid now..but will monitor, and update this blog frequently from tomorrow, at 4/6 hourly intervals.
It’s a sizzling summer: A searing heat wave across India:
An IMD report says the heat across the Northern, Eastern and Southern regions had intensified as temperatures ranged up to 5/7c above normal.
The heat wave continued unabated in Northern India today, and has claimed more than 150 lives, and with temperatures touching the 48c and 47c mark at places in Rajasthan and Haryana.
With the mercury settling above the 45c mark at many places in Rajasthan, the desert state,Sriganganagar was the hottest place for the second consecutive day as it sizzled at a high of 47.8 degrees.
National capital New Delhi recorded maximum temperatures averaging 43c all through last week, and finally Palam topping 47.6c on Monday.
Wardha, Chandrapur and Brahmapuri in Maharashtra state have been the hottest city in the country as the temperature rose to a record 47 again, through last week.
As many as 22 people died heat-related deaths in southern Andhra Pradesh state since Thursday, PTI news agency reported. Hyderabad touched 45.5c.
In Punjab and Haryana, Hisar was the hottest in the region with a daytime temperature of 47c, 7c above normal.
In Gujarat,Ahmedabad saw a sharp rise in the maximum temperature and reportedly it was beyond 45c mark.
And finally for Mumbai: Municipal commissioner Swadhin Kshatriya said, “It is the worst situation in more than 100 years. The lake levels in Mumbai were never so low and wells have reached the lowest drawable levels at two places. We are exploring other sources such as borewells and have imposed water cuts. The city has enough water till July 15, but if the monsoon gets delayed, there could be problems.”
Hottest in Asia:
Readings as on May 17th:
New Delhi (Palam) : 47.6c ..This is an all time high record for Palam for any month.
Hottest Nights: Kota: 35c, Chandrapur: 33c, Hissar:32c, Palam: 31c, Amrisar:31c (+9c), Jaipur:31c..and due to long list,upgraded the base level from 30c to 31c :)
Day temp of Mumbai,Colaba: 35.0c, S'Cruz: 34.2c
Read More HERE
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Touching the Bases on a Monday
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
Radar, New Videos From Hurricane Henry
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 100 degrees at Bullhead City, AZ
Low: 24 degrees at Leadville, CO
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
Warmest High: 66 degrees at Hurn (Dorset)
Coolest High: 51 degrees at Fair Isle (Orkney)
Coolest Low: 30 degrees at Katesbridge (Co Down)
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 62 degrees (partly cloudy, periods of sunny skies and little cloud, particularly across coastal North Ayrshire)
Low: 39 degrees
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Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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