what's in today's blog?
today's top weather stories: more ash problems effecting UK air travel.... puerto rico hit by earthquake.
weather talk discusses the UK warming trend this upcoming week & possible tropical storm development over the next 10 days
in what's reaching today's blogs ***must see video of severe storm roaring through henry margusity's neighbourhood! This has got to be one of the best ever weather videos I've ever seen!
Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

TODAY'S MAIN HEADLINE ash cloud returns to cause problem to british airspace
It's "Plane" and simple, we may have to live with this ongoing and persistent ash problems for 20 years says aviation expert David Learmount - Mark Vogan

As of 5.47pm here in my house in Lennoxtown, Scotland, the sun is shinning and it's in the low 50s with a brisk "west wind". I can see and hear aircraft making their ascent into Glasgow International Airport in which we're roughly 15 or so miles from, we are directly beneath the flightpath and as you could imagine planes fly fairly low with our reasonbly relatively close proximity to the airport. Whilst Engligh airports such as Manchester and now down to Birmingham and Norwich are closed due to volcanic ash which originally was sent due south of Iceland and "well west" of Ireland and mainland Britain is now being sent in aboard west winds now. Currently Glasgow airport remains open and it will be interesting to see if the airport closes later this evening or overnight.

CURRENT ASH ISSUES TO BE SHORT-LIVED!

One thing I will say is this. The current wave of disruption to UK airports "should" be short lived as the upper level pattern will begin to bring winds more out of the south and west rather than from the north like we've seen the past several weeks and the current westerly direction. This change in upper winds should help push the ash due east of Iceland and towards northern Scandinavia in the next few days.

- Mark Vogan   

great britain, europe
Ash flight restrictions extended
BBC Weather
other related stories

Volcanic ash cloud: Britain's no-fly zone extended
Sunday Telegraph

Volcanic ash closes airports in England, Ireland
CNN

puerto rico, caribbean
Early morning earthquake rattles Puerto Rico
AccuWeather News
other related stories
Earthquake rattles Puerto Rico
CNN

louisiana, u.s.a
Scientists: Underwater plume of oil headed out to sea
USA Today

hawaii, u.s.a
Drought worsens in Hawaii
USA Today

Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather

Severe weather unrelenting in southern Plains
AccuWeather

Flood risk from Mississippi Valley to Appalachians
AccuWeather

Wet weather, travel delays headed for mid-Atlantic
AccuWeather

Weather posing hazards to small craft in oil spill area
AccuWeather

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

WARM HIGH PRESSURE TO FINALLY REPLACE THE DOMINANT/STUBBORN COLD HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEK

TROPICS MAY BEGIN FIRING ALSO

Finally the trough that ushered those cold winds through the first half of May to Britain is finally sliding east and into the heart of Europe, this is allowing a warm source of high pressure to push north and east helping push temperatures this weekend throughout Britain as the jet stream lifts north and east of us FINALLY. This will allow a northward push of the Azores High to pump warmer, sub-tropical air from the southwest bringing us the first true feel of summer as those upper winds turn from a northwest direction to a southwest direction. This change of pattern should also aid in cancelling out (for now) the treat of ash to UK air travel as those upper winds blow the ash north and east from Iceland rather than straight southeast towards us like we've seen the past few weeks.

If you see the top graphic how the cool air is over us at the moment, but if you notice the graphic to the left, how the cool pocket is pushed east over central Europe and all but cut off as warmth spreads around it across the Baltic nations and into Scandinavia. This progression of warmer air bleeding out of the subtropics on board southwest winds aloft will warm Scotland to top 21 or 22C by late this week or next weekend, whilst southern inland parts of England may see upper 20s (upper 70s to around 80). This warmer air will also aid in increasing evaporation rates of the soils and though we've seen rainfall everywhere, it hasn't been persistent or widespread, therefore soils are generally on the dry side still, therefore the increase in warming my help increase evaporation rates in the soils as a stronger, warmer sun removes moisture from the soils quicker when the air is warmer. A warmer, drier next few weeks could set the stage later in feeding back to the high pressure systems of June and July and help support very warm surface temperatures as there will be less effort from the sun's rays to the surface used for evaporation, therefore more concentration of the solar rays can go into warming the surface, therefore ultimately heating the air more. Very wet springs don't bode well with intense summer heat. If this theory holds true which I believe it will, then we could see a locked pattern of dominant higher than normal pressures over Britain in June, July and perhaps August and therefore adundant sun and heat should the the rule. We will see pulses of cooler air but the overall mean pattern should be that of high pressure influence rather than low pressure like we've seen the past several summers. This kind of pattern once established can be tough to break once in place and the feedback gets going.

Meanwhile as eastern Europe cools and western Europe warms, we appear to have a connection between the tropical latitudes and the mid-latitudes in which Britain is located.

How so?

Well up until now we have observed large-scale sinking of air over the deep tropics, this has allowed rapid warming in the Gulf of Mexico and continued warming of both Caribbean Sea and the already abnormally warm tropical Atlantic basin. However, as the equatorial Pacific shows cooling in the Nino region which has all but collapsed as of this writing, we are seeing expected upward motion pulses to begin showing over the western-tropical Atlantic this week.

Modelling suggests both a flip from sinking air to upward motion and an increase in precipitation bursts across the Windwards and throughout the Caribbean, which increases the chance for low pressure to develop as net pressures lower on the large-scale. Some computer models are suggesting something develops within the next 10-days. NCEP modelling shows a continual lowering of sea surface pressures in the western Atlantic basin throughout this week and by day-15 there may be large scale, basin-wide upward motion in the deep tropics from Africa to Mexico.. The MJO pulse is appraoching the Atlantic, plus the reaction of the rapidly cooling equatorial Pacific may be responsible for this flip.

You can see the tropical upward motion enhancement in the NCEP model Here

I find it most interesting that we see rising pressures over UK and lowering pressures thousands of miles south within the deep-tropical Atlantic. A large-scale reaction in pressures may start both summer here and the hurricane season down below. Stay tuned as a NEW hurricane blog is released by the end of May...


India & sub-continental Asia Weather
Vagaries of the Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
The Heat is ON ! The first 50c of the year was recorded in Larkana, Pakistan, today.


The entire stretch from Sindh (Pakistan) into India covering the states of Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, M.P, Vidharbh and Gujarat are under a severe heat wave. IMD map of today's high shows the deep red area covering the region.

Nawabshah (Pakistan) 49°


Jacobabad ( Pakistan) 48°

Hissar Airport (India) 47°

Brahmpuri (India) 46

Wardha (India) 46

Nagpur Airport (India) 46°

Satna (India) 46°

Bahawalnagar (Pakistan) 46°

Bikaner Airport (India) 46°

Gwalior (India) 46°

Chhor (Pakistan) 46°

Khanpur (Pakistan) 46°

The Sub-Continent list of over 46s is long today. And I must have missed out a few .In addition, there are 45s today too !

This intense heat will give be a booster for the fast formation and deepening of the seasonal low over the Sindh/ Rajasthan region, and its spreading into the heart of India in the East, and Westwards into Pakistan and Iran.

The North-South trough runs through from East Madhya Pradesh to south Tamilnadu across Vidarbha, Marathawada and Karnataka, hence the line of wind discontinuity persists.

North-East India has been enjoying much cooler weather, with pre-monsoon showers. All stations in this region have rain in excess for the pre monsoon season. Cherrapunji,the wet spot, has recieved 4277 mms of rain in March and April, which is 2766 mms more than the normal for this period !!

We see the low in the Bay, mentioned in yesterday's blog,taking shape and the cloud mass increasing. But,I see the system pulling the clouds from the Andaman Islands,and weakening the monsoon current there to some extent.

Conclusion: The Monsoon will advance into Andaman Islands within 2 days, but the Bay branch may stagger later. Arabian Sea branch? Like we discussed earliar, I feel it depends on the direction the depression takes after it crosses the T.N. coast. There are too many ifs and buts to this sector.

Readings as on 16th. May:


Hottest in Asia: Larkana (Pakistan): 50c. Also,Nawabshah:49c,Jacobabad:48c (Pakistan).
Hottest in India: Ganganagar:47.8c,Hissar 47c,
Hottest Nights (above 30c): Jodhpur 31.6c,Kota 32.3c, Raipur 32.0c,


For more click HERE

What's Reaching Today's Blogs?

AMAZING FOOTAGE CAPTURED
Damaging Thunderstorm Hits My House. Video and Pictures

"For the first time in my life, I was actually scared of the weather. We observed a funnel cloud prior to the storm arriving, but when the storm hit, we had winds over 60 mph and hail 1 to 1.5 inches. When you watch the video, I think that will tell you the entire story. The siargin-right: 1em;">words by Henry Margusity


CONTAINS MUST SEE VIDEO (If you don't like strong language, turn down volumne)

Henry Margusity, AccuWeather

Hellacious Hail Hits Henry's House
UPDATE: I'm working on a Google Map detailing the damage but it's not done yet and I don't have the photos integrated into it yet. The local paper has a story with photos from Henry's son Kyle. While going through my video of the storm today I came across the closest lightning strike I've everd-Atlantic
AccuWeit to be about 2,000 feet away; I'll investigate on Sunday to see if I can find the tree that it hit. MUCH MORE INFORMATION FORTHCOMING ON THIS STORM - PHOTOS, PANORAMAS, VIDEOS, TIME-LAPSES, RADARS, ETC. STAY TUNED.


Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 99 degrees at Goodyear, AZ
Low: 20 degrees at Leadville, CO

Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

Warmest High: 65 degrees at Marham (Norfolk)
Coolest High: 51 degrees at Fair Isle (Orkney)
Coolest Low: 29 degrees at Santon Downham (Suffolk)


Today's Extremes here at my house

High: 60 degrees
Low: 45 degrees

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Thanks for reading.
-Mark