TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
More blue than red showing up globally during April 2011
By purely glancing at the above remote sensing data for April 2011, straight away you can see the very cold air covering much of North America and well into the northern USA, but just look at how warm it was over Northern Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma. As noted in the above graphic, the tight thermal gradient. This was a major player what turned out to be a massive severe weather month on the Plains and South. This thermal gradient also shows how the rains became so persistent, it was thanks to the air mass position anchored in place.
Our part of the world, particularly from central and southern England into northern France perhaps saw somne of the greatest 'above normal' departures, afterall we did see the warmest April in over 350 years of record keeping... Note that warmth spread up through western Scandinavia. More very high temperatures were observed up over north-central Asia.
Now, it stark contrast to this month LAST YEAR, we see exact opposites. 1) India, Pakistan saw pretty cold weather as compared to normal as you can see and as you'll read in 'Weather Talk' below, it's only now becoming hot across NW India and Pakistan's hot zone. Up until now, it's been cool here.
Throughout India which saw record heat from February right to the point where the monsoon got fired up in a big way in early June (remember the record floods in NW India and Pakistan) in 2010, note how cold April 2011 was in all of India, southeast Asia, including Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines down across the majority of Australia (remember the record floods?). The small corner of SW Australia was the only hot area and of course here, it was record hot throughout the long summer in Perth and surrounding areas.
This cold also hampered one of the graetest cleanup opertaions the world has ever seen, of course I'm talking about crippled Japan, here a bullseye of cold sat just to the east of the country and we all saw the pictures of snowfall just days after the earthquake in Japan.
With the exceptions of east-central Africa, pretty much all southern hemisphere landmasses where below normal during April 2011 and as written in the title, with the exceptions of two fingers of major warmth over Western Europe and central Asia and north Mexico and south-central USA, the world seen below normal temperatures. A likely result from a very powerful La Nina.
Flooding forces more evacuations along Mississippi, Ohio rivers
CNN
'Spanish Plume' brings rain to parched SE England
BBC
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan
Varying air mass convergence and warm surface temps should bring explosive thunderstorms across southern UK Saturday
With energy pulling in off the Atlantic in the upper levels, warm, moist air flowing in at the surface from the western Mediterannean and hot, dry air in the mid-levels flowing up from Spain and France, the stage may come together tomorrow and into Saturday for some thunderstorm development across central and southern England as surface temperatures rise into the 23-26C range Friday and Saturday.
Scotland will warm with inland areas warming towards 18-20C but showers and clouds are always nearby thanks to a large low off Ireland.
Spain dries out and with lots of sun, temperatures should reach near or surpass 30C over this weekend.
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan
TEMPERATURES GROWING HOTTER ACROSS DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH 100 FOR PHOENIX, 93 FOR LAS VEGAS TODAY!
HEAT BUILDS ACROSS STORM RIDDEN MIDWEST/SOUTH NEXT WEEK BUT MORE STORMS ALSO LOOM
By Mark Vogan
Temperatures soar to 46C (115F) today at Makkah, Saudi Arabia, Dadu & Nawabshah, Pakistan top 45C (113F) but many areas remain 'below normal' still
BOTH HOT ZONES LOOK TO GET HOTTER IN NEXT 7 DAYS WITH BOTH POSSIBLY TAKING A RUN AT 50+ C (122F) AS THE HIGH INTENSIFIES
Compared to this time last year, it's been fairly mild in a region that typically endures the hottest temperatures in the entire Northern Hemisphere during April and May.
2 key zones should see their hottest, driest weather of the year in their respective parts of the hemisphere. Those two regions are, Northwest India and Pakistan and the African Sahel/Sub-Sahara belt which lies at roughly 13-18 degrees north and to the south of the Sahara Desert, covering the entire bredth of Africa at this latitude. With both of these hot zones typically climbing on a daily basis to between 45-50C, they lie beneath a strong subtropical high. So far it would appear the hottest in Pakistan was 47C recorded at the known Pakistani hot spot of Larkana. Low to mid-40s C appear to be the run of the mill in the hot spots but upper 30s C for most other places.
Both NW and Interior India and central and northern Pakistan should see, along with the Sahel/Sub Sahara belt the strongest high pressure cells at this time of year. Both of these zones remain absent of of rains, though NW India and Pakistan can see showers and the odd storm pop up. As for the Sahel, well the high pressure cell which is always dominant during April and May will progress north and when it does, temperatures will moderate as the ITCZ (Inter-tropical-convergence-zone) lifts north on the underside of the high pressure zone. The dry season will then end here and the rainy season will begin.
As we pogress into the weekend and particularly next week, if you look at the WEATHER TALK from yesterday, I've put up a bunch of European model forecasts for the Sahel African region and you'll see the pressures build across the region as well as expand west to east. This would suggest this region may see temperatures at the surface get even warmer than they already are. Uniformely, highs are reaching 38-42C with several spots reaching between 44-46C. These typically hottest places in these countries could well be looking at highs climbing to between 47-50C over the next several days.
This ridge also bulks up across the Arabian pennisula with highs there too on the rise. Many typically hot cities throughout the Middle East deserts that have been in and around 38C or 100F will likely climb towards 104-106F and in NW India and Pakistan, Such hot spots at Larkana and Jacobabad may reach 50C or 122F.
VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA
Monsoon Watch 5- Part 1( Arrival Time).
As always explained, the MW parameters are showing the progress of the developments in the Monsoon build up. On as - is - where - is basis. Vagaries calculates and forecasts the arrival date of the Monsoon. These parameters are not for the quantum of rainfall.
Vagaries will now, for the 1st time, attempt at forecasting the quantum of Monsoon rainfall. This is in the Part 2.
Bay factor: In the Bay sector, the cross-equatorial wind is building up across the East Indian Ocean with clouds massing west of the Bay Islands. Strong South-West winds have suddenly developed in the South Andaman Sea, and SW winds are now clocking 30 knts south and SE of Sri Lanka. Gauging from the the wind speed, we can expect the Monsoon to strike the South Andamans Seas by 13th, and the Middle Andamans by the 18th. ( Almost on schedule).
As stated, the first South-West Monsoon rains normally hit the South Andaman Sea on 12th.May. And proceed to the Middle Andamans by the 15th. By the 20th. it covers the Islands totally.
As the South-West winds have geared up, and the moisture inflow has picked up in the region,since the last 2 days, by the 10th, we should see a feeble Monsoon current in the South Seas.
Onward Monsoon progress Northwards, will have to be monitored.
In this sequence, we now have a weak low. A weak low has formed in the South West Bay on the 5th. viz.96B. I would not consider this low as a pre-monsoon "bay" low, but just an embeddment in the MJO.
The latest winds in the Bay continues to show strong winds rushing Northwards along the East coast of India, and re-curving into a Westerly flow of winds at the South Myanmar coast. READ THE REST FROM OUR PARTNER BLOG HERE!
WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?
Much Needed Break in the Weather Pattern
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
Back to a Severe Weather Pattern Next Week
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
Tropical Storm Threat for Philippines
Jim Andrews, International Expert, AccuWeather
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 102 degrees at Palm Springs, CA
LOW: 10 degrees at Berthoud Pass, CO
TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE
HIGH: 71 degrees (21.5C) at Heathrow Airport (Greater London)
LOW: 28 degrees (-2.3C) at Braemar (Aberdeenshire)
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 56 degrees
LOW: 43 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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