TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
BBC Meteorologist, Peter Gibbs explains the Spanish Plume
'Spanish Plume' weather system to bring 27C heatwave to Britain this weekend
DAILY TELEGRAPH
Say goodbye to the dry spell - forecasters predict wet and thundery weekend
DAILY MAIL
Flooding shuts down Mississippi River traffic, forces more evacuations
CNN
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan
UK beneath cross-roads of air flowing in from varying origins, creating good thunderstorm dynamics. Spain to northern France and across the Germany will be very warm with 30C likely.
With a large upper low spinning off Ireland and a strong upper high over Germany both these dominant upper-level features brought very warm, humid air all the way up from southern Spain and into northern France, southern and central Britain and across the Low Countries eastwards to Germany and even western Russia. This afternoon saw highs reach 28.7C at ALMERIA, SPAIN, 28.4C at DAX, FRANCE, 26C at PARIS, FRANCE, 27C at COLEMANN/MANNHEIR, GERMANY, 25C at LONDON, ENGLAND and 24.6C WESTDORF, NETHERLANDS.
The counterclockwise flow around the low and the clockwise flow around the high is forcing warm, moist air north from the warm western Mediterannean waters. A mid-level flow is flowing directly northeast from the heart of Iberia and by not crossing much water (except the channel) into the UK, it's dry and warm. Finally the upper levels have cold air flowing over top of the 2 other types of air beneath. These three varying air flows have created an environment very conducive for thunderstorm development across particularly southern and central England and Wales which will kick off tonight across the southwest of England and progress northeastwards and a smaller chance over western Scotland.
These thunderstorms will die out somewhat later into tonight when the air grows cooler, cutting off some dynamic needed for lift, however once tomorrow late morning and early afternoon come, then the dynamics become excellent. The very warm surface flow will help heat the air closest to the ground towards 25 or 26C tomorrow but as tomorrow morning wears on and the solar heating kicks in, this begins fuelling the atmosphere, bubbling it up from bottom, up. As the cold upper air erodes the mid-level hot, dry air, then the warm surface air which is rising will break through the warm (capping) layer and thus clouds erupt from cumulus to cumulonimbus clouds and this means thunderstorms. These cells which will blossom will progress southwest to northeast and produce torrential rainfall, hail and perhaps some gusty winds.
Areas to the east won't get so much in the way of rain or storms as the boundary won't make it to such places as Paris until after the peak heating of tomorrow is reached. This means highs could reach the highest levels of the year in Paris which may reach 28, even 29C. Several places in France and also in Belgium and the Netherlands may top 30C tomorrow (86F) and perhaps 32C over some spots in Germany.
Scotland and Northern Ireland may see the odd thunderstorm blossom in between shower activity. The air here today and yesterday has been Atlantic dominated and thus cool and with frequent showers. The abundant cloudcover has held daytime maximum temperatures to 14-16C while 22C was reached across the Midlands and 24-25C over southeast England today.
Tomorrow will see higher tempereatures get across the border into Scotland tomorrow and we may see 21C for the first time in Glasgow and surrounding areas of the Central Lowlands. This warm, muggy surface envirnoment may help create sufficient 'lift' with surrounding showers that progess in from the southwest to pop some thunderstorms.
Tonight will be fairly warm and made warmer by a humid enviornment. The South may see lows only down to around 16C within the boundaries of Greater London, 12C elsewhere across the south, 11-12C over the Midlands but even up across Scotland, with clouds, it may hold at 10C tonight. Last night actually didn't fall below 10C here at my house.
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan
After 2-4 days of nationwide calm, the Southwest cools and Plains heats dramatically over coming days, stage resets for more severe weather
THE CALM BEFORE THE NEXT STORM
It has been relatively calm over the past few days bar one or two predictable problem areas such as further rainfall in the flood zones, but all in all, it's been a much quiter past few days since the departure of the last system which exited off the East Coast, wiping the atmospheric slate clean so to speak. While we've seen summer-like heat warm the Southwest with highs reaching the upper 80s across the Los Angeles Basin, upper 90s to around 100 in the Deserts. East of the Rockies it has been glorious with plenty of sunshine and 80s over the central Gulf Coast, 70s further north into the Plains and generally 60s further east up into the Northeast I-95 corridor, 80s across the Southeast and Deep South. For a day or so there, Houston saw highs only in the 70s and nights which fell into the cool 50s, very nice indeed for this time of year there. It's heating up as you'd expect throughout the southern and central Plains and this will advance both northwards and become more intense into early next week.
UNSETTLED MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND OVER THE EAST, PACIFIC NORTHWEST
While 80s cover much of the Plains eastward to the Southeast coast, 70s up through the Mid-Atlantic to New York City, 60s across New England, unsettled, rainy weather will roll in from the Ohio Valley through Saturday into Sunday while the Pacific Northwest sees rainy weather move through and this will push across the Northern Rockies and out onto the Northern Plains Sunday bringing slightly cooler weather with 50s and 60s with a chance of high elevation snow as compared to the current temperatures in the 70s, even 80s now and into tomorrow.
HEAT BULGES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WHILE WEST GROWS INCREASINGLY COLDER...
WEATHER TALK AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST
By Mark Vogan
Another hot day with no clouds across the African Sahel and Sub-Sahara region, core of heat centered over eastern region
While it's been another typical hot, dry day across the Sahel/Sub-Sahara belt of Africa, it appears the latest European model suggests that currently (FRI) the pressure heights within the sub-tropical high pressure belt that covers this region at this time of year, providing sunny skies and no clouds is strongest on the eastern side of the belt. Focusing on Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea where there are a few little pockets of 32C temps at 5,000ft, this would suggest daytime maxs in low lying desert floors reaching perhaps 50C.
Notice in the map for Tuesday below. Pressure heights drop off and rise further over Arabia. The entire core of heat looks set to pull eastwards, focusing over Arabia and Pakistan. This may be due to the upper low sliding through the Mediterannean Sea. See it in the map below?
Yesterday's High's across Africa and Middle East
VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA
MW-5 Part 2 (Quantum):
Quantum Forecast :First attempt. Never in previous years' MW has Vagaries forecasted amounts of Monsoon rain.
La-Nina assures us again:
The weather-altering La-Nina condition in the Pacific Ocean seems to be easing and could be over by June. That’s Nature's cyclical pattern.
If conditions do revert to neutral, it could ease forecasting the quantum of this summer's Monsoon rains in India.
Most computer models predict neutral conditions through the end of the year, but a few suggest the possibility of a La Nina re-developing.
According to the Climate prediction Center/Ncep, a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2010, which will continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010. Most other models predict a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during April-June 2011, followed by ENSO-neutral conditions through the end of the year.
Reflecting a weakening La-Nina, enhanced convection developed over Indonesia, and the low-level equatorial trade winds remain near-average.
The SOI is now lowering in value, and has dropped from +30.5 to +21.5.
This would mean normal systems from the Bay, and normal rains for the peninsula south of M.P.during June/July.
No excessive rains, i.e. normal precipitation figures for entire interior peninsula and west coast of India for June/July.
June /July can produce 3/4 systems from the bay, and support a few UAC specially over west M.P. and Gujarat, which will bring spells of very heavy rains along Karnataka/Goa and Mah. coast, and in west M.P. and Gujarat region (barring Kutch).
SEE OUR PARTNER'S BLOG HERE FOR GREAT IN-DEPTH INFORMATION ON THE FAST APPROACHING MONSOON SEASON AND MORE...
WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?
The Weekend Calm before the Next Week Storm
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
Photos: Spring Has Sprung in Central Pennsylvania!
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
WHAT'S ON TODAY'S WEATHERBELL BLOGS?
The Case for An Early Season Tropical Storm
Joe Bastardi's Blog, Weatherbell.com
Friday United States Agricultural Update
Joe D'Aleo's Blog, Weatherbell.com
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 104 degrees at Blythe, CA
LOW: 18 degrees at Eagle Nest, NM
TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE
HIGH: 78 degrees (25.3C) at St James Park (Central London)
LOW: 38 degrees (3.2C) at Santon Downham (Suffolk)
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 59 degrees
LOW: 51 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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