TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
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TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan
Today Brings a Real Threat of Severe & Tornadic Thunderstorms
Today like yesterday will be another hot, humid day throughout the eastern Plains and all of the Midwest, all the way to Minneapolis. Yesterday saw 90-91 degrees around the Chicago area, 88 in the Twin Cities and there, severe weather caused issues in and surrounding the Metro Twin Cities area. Southern Minnesota endured low 90s with a record 91 at Redwood Falls. Thunderstorms roaming the UP of Michigan are likely to turn severe as they dive southeastwards and thunderstorms across the western Plains that oush east will also likely turn severe as daytime heating builds.
(1) UPPER TO LOWER PENN OF MICHIGAN THUNDERSTORMS HEADING SE TOWARDS MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS, LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE
Those very thunderstorms with a history of severe weather yesterday across Minnesota will roll over top of the broiler-plate ridge across the UP of Michigan and swing SE towards and through the Detroit Metro later today en-route towards the Carolinas as they ride the warm front which seperates cooler, drier air across the Northeast and hot, humid air across the Southeast. These storms, like they did yesterday when daytime heating kicked in, will become severe as temperatures rocket into the mid to upper 80s.
(2) STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM W. KANSAS TO SW TEXAS WILL BECOME SEVERE
This huge and powerful ridge is being pumped as it's axis continues pressing east. Because, the upper pattern east of the upper low 'spreads out' and the front is moving into this area of large-scale divergence aloft and surface convergence where the hot, steamy air collides with the front and provides that rush of upward motion, this will likely provide a very conducive environment for these thunderstorms to transition into supercells from 12pm onwards over western to central Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The SW trough digs deeper into the Southwest and has entered West Texas today providing much needed showers and storms to a region that has been bone dry. The front and associated storms will roll towards Houston but but will fail get get all the way to there before dark, thus loosing strength as daytime heat eases. It shall be Houston's turn tomorrow for cooler temps and a decent chance of a soaking as temps rebuild and thus the stormy frontal boundary becomes reactivated.
Another Hot Day Throughout Midwest, core of heat shifts slightly east from yesterday, perhaps even hotter in spots?
Large trough continues pushing blowtorch east. Core of S. Plains heat transfers south into central Mexico and Ohio Valley
By Saturday, heat focuses on Interior East, trough with twin lows center over S. Plains and heat rebuilds over West
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan
Remains unsettled for the remainder of the week across UK, warmth holds across heart of Europe but becoming more unsettled into the western fringes
Today's Upper-Level Pattern
While the fine, dry and warm weather persists over much of the European mainland where highs have reached 25 to 27C over the typically chillier upper reaches of Scandinavia and NW Russia, Britain continues to be beathed on clouds and showers from off the Atlantic as a large low remains stuck tom our west, pulling in southwest winds in the mid to upper levels which hurls band upon band of rain showers one after the other. In such a pattern, sunshine as you'll have noticed is very limited and that being the case, so too is daytime heating which across Scotland only ranges from around 11 to 15C.
Stuck in place and with a strong upper flow out of the southwest, the pattern remains locked and will do for at least the next 5 days.
Further south, though sunshine will become less and less, pressures are somewhat stronger towards London and therefore highs have been warming to around 21 or 22C with slightly more sunshine, however as you'll know, London might as well be the north of France as the generasl weather is practically the same. Further south and across the Greater Paris area, temperatures have been warming into the 23 to 25C range with skies much sunnier than those north of the Channel as the high is beating the low for dominance, however, like we've starting seeing, skies across Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark have become cloudier and thus temperatures are trimmed back to the low 20s C rather than the recent upper 20s, even the 30C mark as the trough starts chipping away at the western fringes of the European mainland, just like we're seeing across London, this process of increased clouds and cooling of those temps across the Low Countries will continue and will likely trend east into Germany over the next 36 to 48 hours.
Spain will enjoy 30C weather across the south, mid 20s C across the interior and north and this will spread up through southern France northeastwards into the interior south of Europe, providing more seasonable sunshine and early summer heat to such cities as Rome, Athens and Istanbul.
Friday's Upper-level pattern
WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan
HEATWAVE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER INDIA AND PAKISTAN AS TEMPS NEAR 50C, LOWS REMAIN ABOVE 30C IN THE WARMEST SPOTS!
TODAY'S HIGHEST ASIA READING: Moenjodaro, Pakistan = 48°C
It appears that tomorrow and over the next 7-day stretch as pressures rocket overhead as the high pressure cell expands upwards into the highest reaches of the atmosphere to extreme heights and thus likely supporting the most extreme heat of 2011 so far. Communities within the Thar Desert of NW India and east-central and southeast Pakistan will warm to and above 50C, 121F in the coming days.
This weather is typical and running late this year as compared to last year when it came early.
This pattern is likely to trigger to monsoon over the next few weeks across the sub-continent.
VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA
Readings of 10th May:
Hottest in Asia: Larkana (Pakistan) 48c, Nawabshah and Jacobabad 47c.
Hottest in India: 45.2c at Khajuraho, Agra 44.7c, 44.5c at Brahmapuri.
Lows above 30c in India: Khajuraho 31c, Gwalior 30.7c, Gondia 30.4c, Kota 30.3c, Satna 30.2c. No lows above 30c noticed in Pakistan.
Next 4 days (Wed thru Saturday). We may see fairly heavy precipitation in the NE states, sikkim and Eastern Nepal. Thundershowers in Kerala and south Karnataka.
Some change expected in peninsula from Sunday.
Strong Westerly dust raising surface winds in Rajasthan and Gujarat are likely to prevail next 3 days, and Lower Sindh region of Pakistan. This would raise the day temperatures a bit more (refer to region in Vagaries' map of yesterday).
Sindh region of Pakistan could see the year's first 50c before the end of this week.
Strong dry westerlies at around 40 kmph in Karachi will keep the day temperature within 36c. Nights however will be around 27c.
After some rain on Wednesday, Islamabad will start warming up from Thursday onwards, and can reach 37c by Saturday.
Monsoon Watch - 6.
Seasonal Low:Indicator: -ve
An interesting release has been put by by IMD on the one to one co-relation between a "coolish" April 2011 and estmate of SWM arrival and quantum. It says, in years when W.Ds have dominated, it is not necassary that it has an effect on the SWM in any way. No one-to one relationship could be observed between surface heating of northwest India during the pre-monsoon period and the monsoon rainfall, it concluded.
But, I feel, one parameter is sure to have a direct bearing. The formation of the seasonal low. It surely is dependent on the quantu of heat in the Northern plains of the sub-continent.
Frequent W.Ds during April this year, and 2 in May, have kept the day temperatures in near normal levels, and the minimum temperatures much below normal (as much as 7c) in interior Mah and Karnataka, has resulted in a delay in the formation of this low.
Today, as on 10th May, we see an area of 998 mb in Central Pakistan region. But, due to W.D. effect, the 998 mb has been elongated into the sub Himalayan areas, in U.P. This was referred to in the Vagaries on Sunday.
What we now, see is a core area developing in the Thar desert region of Pakistan, at around 998 mb. This is what we were waiting for and refering to in the previous MWs.
Sub Continent: The jig-saw puzzle of the monsoon can fit in properly in the bay and Arabian sea, but I only hope the below par heating and seasonal low formation in the north do not play spoilsport. The heating even today(Tuesday) is mediocre, with the highest in Pakistan today( 10th) at 48c, Larkana, and with only a stray 45c at Khajuraho and Agra in India.
The heat low just about touched 998 mb in a small area on the 10th. A difference of at least 16mb in the pressure is required between the MSL at Trivandrum and the pressure in the heat low to create a gradiant to pull the monsoon winds and clouds inland. SEE REST OF STORY HERE!
WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?
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THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 103 degrees at Laredo, TX
LOW: 18 degrees at Alpine, AZ
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 59 degrees
LOW: 49 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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