TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
BREAKING NEWS HEADLINE
At least 40 killed in U.S. storms, as many as 14 in one NC county
CNN
At Least 43 Killed After Deadly Storms Ravage Southern U.S., North Carolina
FOX NEWS
US storms and tornado death toll rises
BBC
Jersey enters 'absolute drought' with supply concerns
BBC
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan
ABOYNE, ABERDEENSHIRE CHALLENGES HEATHROW AND SOUTHEAST FOR WARMEST UK READINGS TODAY
Note the darker yellow over Scotland and the North of England that indicate's warmer air aloft than the brighter or weaker yellow seen over Southeast England, this may aid in making the warmest high in Britain today over Scotland than the typical southeast England hot spots.
According to a 3pm Met Office observation, Aboyne, located due west of Aberdeen and away from the cooling influence of the cold North Sea waters was reporting a reading of 19.5C (67 degrees) and this is challenging readings found around the typical warm spots in the southeast of England. Unless Heathrow continues cooling from it's maximum at 3pm of 20C and Aboyne rises, this would mean Aboyne could be the warmest spot in Britain today.
TIREE'S 11C (52F) VERSES AVIEMORE'S 18C (64F)
The reason for Aberdeenshire being as warm and quite possibly warmer is thanks to pressure heights being slightly higher than those over the southeast of England. The warmer theair, higher up in the atmosphere or the higher level in which the clumn of air can commence it's sinking process, the warmer temperatures on the ground below can go. Wind and cloud cover also influences this process of course, Meteorlogists often look at the temperature at the 850mb level or 5,000ft above the ground to work out what the temperature will be. The local envirnonment plays a big role, where the surrounding hills are and where are the winds blowing from. This can be where highly localised micro climates can come in.
The conditions across Scotland are such that winds are blowing in from off the sea and thus temperatures are only in the 11 to 13C range despite sunny conditions. Inland highs are pushing 18 to 20C and any breezes crossing up and over hilly (inland) terrain may be adding a little downslope/compressional warming, perhaps warming Aboyne and Aviemore to the levels their seeing this afternoon. However, light winds and high pressure sitting almost directly overhead will also help warm the ground up nicely too!
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan
Sadly the front's final throws came at high price over the Carolinas and Virginia, US skies have been scraped clean of bad weather for a few days at least but storms and rumors of storms will return!
Unfortunately, the next 48 hours will be a short lived window for damage assessments, cleanup and a chance at starting a long, tiring rebuilding of lives. The pattern is a very active one at this time and another storm is set to cross out of the Rockies and onto the Plains early to mid week and I do see a growing potential for similar weather across the same areas.
So far this spring, we've seen likely well over 500, perhaps even 600 tornadoes, with a record 241 this weekend alone and with not only a new storm brewing for early week that's going to most certainly produce more, more storms will cross the country over the coming weeks ahead, could the 2008 tornado record of over 1000 fall? If it doesn't, it will most certainly be threated that's for sure given the pattern in place at the moment that I don't see changing.
High pressure builds back into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic after a weekend of soaking rains and even their own share of severe weather. However, after a sunny respite, this region too will once again return to wind, rain, thunderstorms and cool temperatures perhaps by late Wednesday or Thursday as the front approaches. Stay tuned for details on the upcoming week's return to stormy weather tomorrow.
WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan
If the 2008 Severe Weather Season is like 2011, does that mean a similar hurricane season to 2008 also?
If the warmer than normal Gulf is creating or at least fuelling this record breaking Severe Weather season, What does that mean for the Hurricane Season?
It would appear that warmer than normal conditions in the Gulf of Mexico may be adding fuel to the fire in relation to this spring's severe weather season which is strikingly similar to 2008. If that's the case that Gulf waters, that are warmer than they should be is aiding in creating a worse severe weather season, then does this mean a worse hurricane season also?
Of course it can greatly depend on the track of cyclones once formed, but could there be larger-scale influences based on a warmer Gulf? Eg. warm water can feed back to the atmosphere, enhancing upper level ridges, forcing stronger upper winds and or re-routing them too.
The problem is, if the hurricane season mirrors or is at least remotely similar to 2008, we can only fear that as we saw Gustav and Ike, two powerful hurricanes that went into the Gulf. We all know what Ike did!
A mere food for Sunday evening thought, I'm not trying to scare but share the facts and some of my thoughts.
Only time will tell.
VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA
Weekend Weather Behaviour in Line with vagries'Forecast originally up on 15th:
Good rains reported from Kashmir and H.P.on Saturday, and specially on Sunday. Snowfall reported from some higher altitude areas of the state. Keylong, headquater of Lahaul Spiti experienced 5 cm snowfall during the last 24 hrs and high reaches of Kinnuar, Kullu and Chamba also had light spell of snow .
On Sunday, Dharamsala receives 19 mms of rain and many stations in H.P. between 10-20 mms.
Srinagar with 8 mms of rain was at a day's high of 13c.
In the plains, rains were spread all over Punjab, Haryana, North Rajasthan and Delhi, had an overcast day with light rainfall throughout. Amritsar, Ferozeepur, Gurgaon, Rohtak, Jullendar and Delhi had a thunderstorm on Sunday evening. Rain with hail storm was reported from Nainital and Dehradun. Where as rain has affected the normal life in Chamoli, Almora and Pithoragarh.
Some Highs in Punjab Cities (Vagaries'original estimate in brackets): Patiala: 32c 20c, Amritsar 32c- 17c and Ambala 31c-22c.( Vagaries'Estimated for Punjab Cities:34-18). Delhi max:37c. and min 22c (Estimated 37-22).
Pakistan: Several stations had very heavy rains between 50-80 mms.Muree had heavy rains of 66 mms, Islamabad 33 mms and Rawalpindi 27 mms. Islamabad day's high 24c,( below 25c), Karachi 36c (36c). Highest in Pakistan: Turbat at 42c.(Not more than 40c).
Now, Vagaries had predicted A3 to follow along the lines of A2 in terms of forming an induced low.
This has happened on Sunday.
IMD Sunday bulletin release states, Quote-"An induced cyclonic circulation extending upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. lies over Rajasthan and neighbourhood.The
trough/wind discontinuity at 0.9 km a.s.l. now runs from the above system to Lakshadweep area across west Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha,
Marathwada, south Madhya Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and Kerala".
Promised Sunday review of Vortex formation over Marathwada:
An embedded UAC within this line has formed somewhere near South Mah. (a bit to the west of predicted Marathwada region), and is about to bring the anticipated rains/thundershowers into S.Mah. and spread to Marathwada ansd Vidharbha from Monday.
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WHAT'S ON TODAY'S WEATHERBELL BLOGS?
The Hits Keep on Coming.. more stormy weather,cold, Wet next 2-3 weeks
Joe Bastardi's Blog, Weatherbell.com
What a three-day bout of severe weather
Joe D'Aleo's Blog, Weatherbell.com
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 101 degrees at Ocotillo Wells, CA
LOW: 17 degrees at Jamestown, ND
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 64 degrees
LOW: 37 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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