TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
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ACCUWEATHER NEWS
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THE WEATHER CHANNEL
SPECIAL: SAN FRANCISCO TO PARIS IN 2 MINUTES BY NATE BOLT
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan
UK UNDER THE DOLDRUMS OF BENIGN DAY AFTER DAY CLOUD, SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS
UK (PARTICULARLY NORTH) SUFFERS DAYS OF LADEN CLOUDY SKIES, OUTBREAKS OF RAIN AND CHILLY TEMPS)
Unfortunately, our weather has become boring, even benign as I like to call it as high pressure to the east and low pressure and a series of fronts to the west that never quite get here have created a heavy/laden overcast across much of the UK airspace that is and regularly lasts for days. Accompanying the persistent overcast is westerly/northwesterly breezes and there is little sunshine. All these factors play into the fact we struggle to top 10C (50F) and that has been the case today for most of Scotland with my high reaching a mere 49 degrees (9C) which feels a lot cooler with the wind blowing.
25C to 32C TEMPS WELL TO THE SOUTH DOWN ACROSS SPAIN AND PORTUGAL, EASTERN CONTINENT REMAINS COLD WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER TURKEY
The heat we enjoyed last week and through the weekend is displaced well to our south over Spain, Portugal and that is spread east over the Med and across the southern European countries of Italy and Greece. A trough that's dug deep over eastern Europe and keeping countries such as the Ukraine and Turkey unseasonably cold and with mountain snows.
This evening's BBC Scotland Forecast By Stav Danaos
Today's BBC Europe Forecast By John Hammond
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan
Sunnier Skies to reappear across Mid-Atlantic, Northeast Thursday but another Severe Weather Outbreak looms for Heartland once again
WESTERN TROUGH + PACIFIC STORM + COLD AIR DIVING SOUTH FROM CANADA + NEGATIVE TILTING + EASTERN RIDGING AND WARM, HUMID SURGE FROM GULF = SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK!
The combination of a storm system moving through the Pacific Northwest, the deepening of a trough over the Great Basin and the negative tilt to that trough as the system rolls out onto the High Plains come tomorrow spells trouble ahead. Yet again the ingredients are merging for another week and another potentially major severe weather outbreak starting in the Plains and working tomorrow (Thursday) and moving eastwards into the Mississippi/Tennessee valleys.
THE BREAK IN THIS FRUSTRATING PATTERN WILL BE SEASONAL ADVANCEMENT!
For folks in the Plains, it's storm, severe weather and then cooler air. For folks in the east, it's rainstorm, warm-up for a few days and then back to rainstorm.
N. Plains snowstorm
Unfortunately, a snowstorm will impact folks from eastern Montana through North/South Dakota into Minnesota where between 2-4 and 4-8 inches of snow is likely along with 10 to 25 below normal daytime highs and lows in the next couple of days. This is in association of a Pacific storm that is progressing eastwards further south and is pulling down cold air from northwest Canada.
Stormy midsection
As for folks to the south into the central and southern plains states, it will be firstly warming up, then as the system rolls through, it will get stormy with areas seeing severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes from Nebraska down in Kansas, Oklahoma and north Texas, behind this front and stormk system, temps should fall some 10 to 15, even 20 degrees.
East/Northeast sunshine and mild return
As for those getting sick and tired of rain, cloud and then sun.. well that will persiste as the storm that's laying rain, snow and wind out west will pump an eastern ridge, allowing Eastern residents to dry out as the sunshine returns and temps bounce back into the 70s for DC, Baltimore and perhaps Philly, staying cooler up into New York and Boston. This will change in 2-4 days when the system out West moves into the Eastern coastal plain where things are likely to return to the current wet, cloudy and cool regime.
What's really going to snap the US out of this horrible pattern will unfortunately be the advancement to summer when the sub-tropical high's over the Desert, Southern Plains and Southeast firmly establish themselves in their summer position eradicating long-wave troughs which will lift north into Canada. Until then, troughs of cold air will continue to drop into the Western USA and progress eastwards providing all the calamities the country is currently facing.
IT REMAINS HOT, AND VERY DRY ACROSS N MEXICO, TEXAS, OKLAHOMA
Stay tuned for more US weather tomorrow...
WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan
Coastal New Jersey rocked by Thunderstorm Complex that was fed by tropics last night
Though the air temperature didn't reflect, the storms from Cape May to Atlantic Highlands was one of a mid-summer night...
We knew that the front that caused all the severe weather and tornadoes across the Heartland of the US would eventually reach the East Coast, interestingly it was also believed that it would stall once along the Atlantic Seaboard thanks to a strong ridge off the East Coast, This all happened along with other interesting things last night.
The blocking effects of this high and the formation of low pressure along with the existing front was drapped from eastern PA/central Jersey all the way south into the Mid South. This set the stage for a strong rip-roaring southerly low level jet to force tropical moisture from the Gulf north in the mid levels with the low to the west, high to the east and front as the channel. The upper low was the energy source. A west-east oriented thunderstorm complex formed over NE Delaware/SW Jersey triggered by the warm front. The energy from the low to the west and with the high keeping things in place, there was a large area of showery rain throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast but this thunderstorm complex progressed north with the warm front up the Jersey Shore. It intensified as it trekked into cooler air over Atlantic & Monmouth Counties in central and northeast Jersey. The entering of cooler air and the persistent feed of warm, moist air on the south side forced these thunderstorms to grow intense, even severe with reports of tornado touchdowns in south Jersey (to be confirmed).
However, the overall weather picture last night was one of a chilly, mostly to completely overcast night with showers, some of which were heavy throughout the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast away from the Atlantic coast. The interesting weather was east of that front, stalled by a Bermuda high offshore. Eastern Jersey was host to where that warm, tropical moisture feed was flowing vigorously northwards, feeding a line of thunderstorms.
WAS THERE AN EAST COAST PINEAPPLE EXPRESS LAST NIGHT?
Due to the cool air (low to mid-50s F), the warm southerly flow in the mid-levels which was visible on sat imagery snaking from the Gulf all the way into the low pressure energy to the west of Jersey (looked pineapple express-like) and the energy from the upper low forced these storms to become stronger. The west to east orientation was thanks to the west-east warm front which all went north and up through Atlantic City, Long Beach Island and into Monmouth Country towards Long Island, NY. Packing quite a punch and even producing damaging winds, torrential rains and nasty cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, they forced folks to remain indoors.
VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA
Forecast for Nepal:
Moisture remains from A2 might still precipitate light rains in a few pockets on Thursday.. Subsequently, no rains Friday /Sat.
A3 starts sliding into Western Nepal areas from Sunday, and covers the country , so entire region should get rains on Monday. The stationary high anchored over Nepal at 1024, will vanish with the advent of A3, and reduce the pressure to 1020 mb. (Normally I do not give very technical and detailed explanations as they are boring for the readers. Not that I am technically qualified in Meteorology.)
Jumla should get rains from Sunday, and touch 0c on Monday.
Kathmandu, will see decreasing rains from 13th ,Wednesday night, and no rain Fri/Sat. Cloudy though. Sunday night could witness thunder rains and Monday, 18th, will be overcast with rains intermittently.
North winds Monday thru Wednesday (6 days forecast ?? Bold attempt, Vagaries !:-) will keep the days around 25/26, but minimum could fall to 8c.
Will review and put up a forecast (with Nepal included) on Friday night, as the previous Vagaries Forecast expires .
WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?
Another Big Outbreak of Severe Weather
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
One Soaking Rainstorm to Be Followed by Another and Another
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
new: what's on today's weatherbell blogs?
Expansion on Atmospheric Avenger from April 12 idea
Joe Bastardi's Blog, Weatherbell.com
Heat Waves Increasing? How about 2011?
Joe D'Aleo's Blog, Weatherbell.com
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 97 degrees at Edinburg, TX
LOW: 10 degrees at Lake Yellowstone, WY
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 49 degrees
LOW: 44 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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