TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Temperatures to reach 21C in sections of Moray & Aberdeenshire, Scotland whilst Southeast England may reach 22-23C tomorrow... see UK, Europe sections below for the details.
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TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE
By Mark Vogan
WEST/NORTHWEST SCOTLAND UNDER HEAVY RAIN WARNING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW!
TOMORROW TO DAWN 'VERY MILD' ACROSS MUCH OF UK BUT VERY WET FOR WEST SCOTLAND TO START, CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ENGLAND TO BOAST HIGHS OF 21-23C TOMORROW IN THE SUNSHINE.
Despite fresh bands of very heavy rains for much of western and central Scotland through tonight, though still wet, it won't be quite as heavy or persistent over eastern Scotland, helped by the Highlands grabbing much of the soaking.
By tomorrow morning hefty rain should clear north from Greater Glasgow, allowing brighter skies by noon onwards with possibly sunshine peaking through. However, north of Glasgow and those very heavy rains will persist thanks to a strong southwest moisture flow streaming in from the warmer regions of the central Atlantic. As this moist pump hits the higher terrain of northwest Scotland, it's forced to rise, cool and condense, forcing heavier and persistent rains much of tomorrow.
SHELTERED BY THE HIGHLANDS RAIN SHADOW, MORAY AND ABERDEENSHIRE MAY PUSH 21C IN THE SUNSHINE TOMORROW
However along with gusty southwest winds, this will in fact drive those rain bearing clouds north and also with it, pull warmer air in. Have you noticed how mild it is out there this evening? You'll notice it by morning when most of us across Scotland and England have 12-14C on their car thermometer at 8am, yes even in Glasgow and Edinburgh. This 'mild base' will help the sunshine across much of England and Wales to rise towards 20C with south-central and southeast England rising to at least 21C. I would expect that places such as Gravesend, Kent, Northolt, Surrey and other urban warmed suburbs of London may reach perhaps 23C.
As for Scotland, the northwest will see a cooler but still mild and above normal 13 to 14C. Further east and protected by the bulk of the Highlands, sunshine should break out in eastern areas of the country with potential for Moray, Aberdeenshire, Angus and even inland Fife may reach 18, 19 or 20C with somewhere likely topping 21C (70F)
If sunshine manages to break out across the M8 corridor between Glasgow and Edinburgh, we may see 17 or 18C.
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA
By Mark Vogan
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING COLD FRONT NOW RATTLES ATLANTIC SEABOARD, WIPES OUT SUMMER-LIKE HEAT!
During late afternoon yesterday folks across the South and Mississippi valleys were cleaning up from the spate of severe weather and tornadoes that ripped through the turbulent skies 24-36 hours previous as a cold front and warmth ahead of it produced a seemly never ending line of dangerous squall lines and supercells as the boundary tore eastwards, but it was the eastern seaboard's turn for trouble late this afternoon and evening as heat surged north through the Coastal Plain to the east of the Appalachains. Highs warmed into the mid-80s for DC and Baltimore and 79 for Philly as a warm front pushed north enough along with roaring southwest winds. This was just as the cold front that caused all the damage further west was knocking on the Big Cities western doorstep.
Interestingly and as expected, that warm front didn't get quite far enough north to reach NYC and thus we saw highs across the Tri-State reach the 60-63 degree mark, a big difference from Philadelphia's near 80 degree high and in such short distance as well. It's amazing at how much thermal contrast lines either side of a warm front!
Late last night nasty weather exited the Northeast-Mid-Atlantic coast but further south, the atmosphere was that little more bouyant and thus trouble with severe weather was had over Virginia and the Carolinas as you can see from the above and below graphics.
WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan
Many weather organisations release their own Hurricane Forecasts as we fast approach a new season in the tropics!
It's that time of year when many companies, organisations etc produce and publish a hurricane forecast.
It appears as though with the given parameters at play just now, we may see a slightly above average season but not the kind of season like last year which brought 19 named storms nor like 2004 or 2005 which brought many hits to the US.
It's always a tough call as to how many storms form in the Atlantic but an even tougher call to forecast how many and at what strength they may threaten and hit the US.
Since 2005's hyper active season and hyper active attack on the US it's been relatively quiet along US shores. Yes there have been major hits since such as Ike, Gustav etc in 2008 but 'officially' there have been no 'major' hurricane strikes on the US, that's cat 3 or greater. It would almost appear as though the tropical summer pattern lessened it's assault on the US since Wilma struck Florida in October 2005. Has the Atlantic perhaps cooled since a 2005 peak in SST heat content?
We shall just need to wait and see what lies ahead for the 2011 season. More on this topic coming up soon.
VAGARIES OF THE WEATHER
INDIA & SUB-CONTINENTAL ASIA WEATHER
BY RAJESH KAPADIA
Indications from the upper air 500 mb charts show arrival of M2 by Friday.
It seems A2 may commence precipitation in Pakistan and Northern most regions of India by Friday, 8th. April.
Vagaries estimates a fairly active system, and snow over the higher reaches of Kashmir and H.P. is on the cards by Friday/Saturday. Snow could also be expected in Gulmarg and Pahalgam hill stations and in the Lahaul valley including Keylong in H.P.
Manali, Dalhousie and H.P. hill stations can expect rains on the week end, with the days getting cold at 14/15c.
Central India (see Vagaries forecast map of Monday), should get convective rains on Thursday/Friday, as a line of wind dis-continuity is expected to form.
Next detailed forecast on Friday with map.
Mumbai:
Wed/Thurs/Friday: Days will be sunny with the highs in the 32/33c and nights will be below normal till Friday, at around 20c in the suburbs and 23c at Colaba.
Low clouds are expected on 7th. night. Low cumulus clouds will flyby from the west on Wednesday night.
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WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?
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Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
new: What's on the weatherbell blogs today?
Why I am “So Low” on TOTAL storms this year ( Higher on Impact though)
Joe Bastardi's Blog, Weatherbell.com
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Joe D'Aleo's Blog, Weatherbell.com
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 94 degrees at Pecos, TX
LOW: 12 degrees at Eagle Nest, NM
TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE
HIGH: 64 degrees (17.9C) at Dyce (Aberdeen Airport)
LOW: 44 degrees (6.8C) at Lerwick (Shetland)
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 57 degrees
LOW: 46 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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