TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Mark Vogan's Preliminary Summer 2011 Forecast
United Kingdom will be inside the boundary between chilly air over Scandinavia and blistering heat over Spain
*Scandinavia across to western Russia will be cooler-wetter than normal
*Southern Europe and Mediterrannean to see above normal temps
I have come up with the above highlights given the overall pattern we currently have at play and the type of winter we've seen.
The recent La Nina which shadowed the pattern more so during the second half of winter is quickly weakening and will likely have faded considerably from about the start of August, not before and thus the La Nina and it's domino effects should reflect the majority of the large-scale hemispheric pattern this summer.
I believe the overall pattern should be as follows when we look at the grand June through August pattern.
A dissapointing Cool/Wet Summer ahead for same areas that shivered in winter 2010-11
Cooler air will linger from coastal Norway across Sweden, Finland, through the Baltics and into western Russia. Here there may be a series of fairly strong Atlantic cyclones moving through of which may shield Great Britain from warm sunshine for days on end. We may also see mist and low cloud as well as drizzle, particularly over the northern half of Britain.
Endless sunshine and heat for a banana-shaped rim around the northern Med
The core of this summer's heat will be drapped in a banana-shaped rim, spanning all the European Med coast and points inland. Stretching from Gibraltar to Monaco to Milan and across to Istanbul. Here, sunshine should be relentless, providing 28-38C heat day after day with interior areas away from the cooling sea breeze soaring beyond 38C (100 degrees F) 40C.
As always, the core or origin of the heat is centered beneath the sub-tropical high pressure core parked over the Sahara Desert in north Africa, the air flowing around this wheel of heat, drives hot air up across the sunbaked countries of southern Europe.
As for the UK, though I see an unsettled summer overall, we may have a better summer than last year which was nice and settled from May through late June and then turned on it's head come July 1 with the rest being for the most part, a wash out. This year, unsettled and settled spells may be more evenly distributed throughout the summer months. The problem is, we live on a small island, surrounded by cold waters (even in summer) and located at a relatively far north latitude with a large ocean to our west, we aren't going to see the same type of persistent sunshine that areas either further south or far from a large body of water will see. We also won't see truely hot conditions either thanks to the nearby surrounding waters.
However, I do see 'many' warm,/sunny spells of anywhere from 3-5 or longer days in a row for the central and southern portion of England and Wales as well as Ireland. As for the northern areas, we may see 2-3 spells of 3-5 days which may extend upwards of 10 days once or twice across northern England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland where we see sunny, warm days and pleasantly mild evenings. The areas of southern, interior England and Greater London may see upwards of 5 to even 10 nights in which lows only fall to around 18C or warmer.
Conclusion:
Here in the UK, will shall be within that boundary between the heat and sun to the south and the chilly, damp and at times, stormy north over Scandinavia. Both air masses will bounce north and south, providing us with a taste of both.
NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC ON WINTER STORM ALERT TONIGHT...
Are you ready for tonight's Nor'Easter?
Discussion by Mark Vogan
I-95 could be close to division between rain and snow
It would appear that it looks like I-95 itself may be close to the rain-snow line with a uniform 2-4 inches of snow to fall from within 5-15 miles west of Philadelphia, New York and Boston. However, the slightly slift in track changes that in a big way and that 2-4 may end up OVER those cities if the deepening storm off Virginia's Capes tracks northeastwards slightly further off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast.
Another factor may be in the actual deepening phase of the storm. If the system deepens more so than expected, it may also force the snow line closer to the coast and therefore making it snow more than rain within the population centers.
As of this time anyway, I expect mostly rain, perhaps even an all rain event with gusty winds for Philly, New York and up to the Cape and downtown Boston. Boston is a slightly tougher call, cause, it's often easier to get the cold air closer to the coast around Boston on northwards up along the Maine coast. In saying that warm air has many a time remained along the coast all the way up into the Canadian maritimes.
Mountainous areas of NW Jersey, NE Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley of New York and the mountains of central and northern New York, southern & central Vermont and New Hampshire and Maine may see 8-14 inches with locally 16 to 24 inch amounts of snow.
70 reportedly trapped after storm hits Florida
CNN
Heat wave intensifies in L.A. area; near-record temperatures expected
LA TIMES
Floods deluge kills at least 15 in Thailand
BBC
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA
From AccuWeather
Another Big Snowstorm Next Week... Seriously?
By Heather Buchman, Meteorologist
Violent Thunderstorms Tear through Florida
By Eric Reese, Meteorologist
April Fools Snowstorm Is No Joke
By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan
California Weather Extremes at their best!
Record 200-350 inch snow base in Sierra whilst record heat is expected within LA Basin and S. Calif today
High Pressure building over the Deserts of the Southwest has shifted the extremely active Pacific storm train way north, but in it's wake has left the High Sierra buried beneath many 'feet' of snow. Throughout the Deserts of the Southwest and under high pressure, temps will get into the 90s, even low 100s today with even 80s and 90s spreading westwards into the coastal valleys of Southern California and the LA Basin thanks to an easterly flow blowing from the interior deserts.
This is in stark contrast to the hundreds of inches of snow which lie in the high, tree-lined valleys of the Sierra from Tahoe in the north to Mammoth Basin in the south, not too terribly far from the same areas which may see low 100s today. Remember, Death Valley isn't too far south of the southern flank of the Sierra Nevada. Today may see a contrast of 100 degree heat in low-elevation desert valley floors whilst surrounding peaks, penetrating 10,000 feet or more into the blue sky that is buried under 50 or more inches of snow and temps only in the 20s and 30s! That's California for ya!
WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?
Rainfall Tops 50 Inches in Southern Thailand
Jim Andrews, International Expert, AccuWeather
Snow and Severe Weather Maps for the April Fools' Storm
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 103 degrees at Death Valley, CA
LOW: 4 degrees at Kabetgama, MN
TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE
HIGH: 66 degrees (18.8C) at Santon Downham (Suffolk)
LOW: 30 degrees (-1.3C) at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire)
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 49 degrees
LOW: 42 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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